Welcome to our annual exercise in humility, as we begin the men's basketball season. I take each game, and evaluate based on how it looks today and then we look back at the end of the year and see how it all came out. And have a laugh.
I was surprised a little how this came up. Perhaps I was influenced by doing the predictions during the Akron-Mississippi State game, as Akron man handled an SEC team on their floor.
College Basketball Prospectus came out today, and they have BG last in the East just like the media does, though there are 4 teams in the West below BG in pre-season rankings.
The schedule has some difficult elements. You have two major conference teams on the road, you have Temple at BG, and you have some decent teams coming for the tournament games.
Based on these rankings, I have BG at 15-14, not counting the bracket buster game with an unknown opponent and 8-8 in the MAC.
If you want to see a better record, you could win @Valparaiso, but the game is on the road. You could beat Detroit at Stroh...they are expected to be very good and return everybody from the team that beat us last year, though that was on their floor. Even this record calls for wins over Austin Peay and GW, both of who are supposed to be good, as well as on the road @WKU, @FIU and @Texas-San Antonio.
In the conference, I see BG winning at home versus everyone except Akron and Kent and winning @ Eastern and @ Buffalo. If you want to get to 10-6, I'd guess you win @Miami, and @Ball State.
If you don't think you can beat Akron or Kent, you are limited to no better than 12-4 right out of the box.
Of course, this is all based on what we see today. If the team's elements come together, then things could be very different. I'd love to think we're ready to be among the top tier of teams in the MAC--for that to happen, it is Miami and OU we have to climb over first, so that first OU game at the Stroh might be a key game along with that early game @Miami.
11/11/2011 Howard W
11/13/2011 at Georgia L
11/21/2011 Austin Peay W
11/22/2011 Detroit L
11/23/2011 George Washington W
11/27/2011 Temple L
12/4/2011 at Western Kentucky W
12/7/2011 Malone W
12/10/2011 at Valparaiso L
12/17/2011 at Michigan State L
12/22/2011 at Florida International W
12/28/2011 at Duquesne L
1/1/2012 at Texas San Antonio W
1/7/2012 * Ohio W
1/11/2012 * Akron L
1/14/2012 * at Kent State L
1/18/2012 * at Miami (Ohio) L
1/21/2012 * Buffalo W
1/25/2012 * Central Michigan W
1/28/2012 * at Eastern Michigan W
2/1/2012 * at Western Michigan L
2/4/2012 * Northern Illinois W
2/8/2012 * at Ball State L
2/11/2012 * Toledo W
2/15/2012 * at Ohio L
2/22/2012 * at Akron L
2/25/2012 * Kent State L
2/29/2012 * Miami (Ohio) W
3/2/2012 * at Buffalo W
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