Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Reds News

The Reds always get a little tougher to track once we're following football, but I'm still watching. It looks like we won't get fourth, or a .500 record, but a .500 second-half season is still within reach, and they should be better than they were last year. Given where we were at the break, that's not a bad accomplishment.

Mentally, we all try to do the math on who will be in the rotation next year. I think we had all hoped to see Luke Hudson earn a spot, but that is not going to happen. Its too bad, because he had plenty of chances. I was in favor of giving him time to work it out, but it was apparent it wasn't going to happen. JD at RedReporter thinks a bullpen stint for the hard thrower might be a good idea.

Unlike JD, I'm OK with giving him 16 starts under these circumstances.

Ben Weber was DFA by the Reds. Another experiment failed.

Brian, our favorite poster at Redleg Nation, has a great post (part I) that asks the question: "Have the Reds Ever Had Pitching."

Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus has a cool simulation. He uses a Monte Carlo simulation to "play" the rest of the season 1,000,000 times, developing probabilities for what is likely to happen. The Reds have a .00011 chance of making the wild card, and their average wins in the Monte Carlo is 75.2. I think we'll do a little better, but who am I to argue with a computer?

Good game tonight. Cubs win at home, but it was a well-played game. Eric Milton pitched well, and the bullpen was strong, too. Just needed some key hits to win the game.

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