BG Smokes Hornets Out

We wanted to stack some solid performances together.  And now they have stacked three such performances, with the last two being wins.  Sacramento State is not a good team.  They have been outscored 153-29 in their last four games. So they aren't the toughest opponent in the world.  

A good team beats that team easily, and that's what happened.

The Falcons got off to a slow start.  On the first possession, Kastantin was rolling right on a bootleg, no one had been fooled, he tried to force it in and it was picked.  SCS's first INT of the year.  They went on a 12-play drive that covered...uh...checking...39 yards, converting on 4th and 3rd, before Eriq George got a TFL on 1st, Cash Lewis with a sack on 2nd down, and SCS ended up with a FG to go up 3-0.

BG started on their 25 and ran the fifth play of the drive from SCS territory.  On 3rd down, Kastantin rolled right, didn't have much, ran into traffic, and was short of the first down by like four yards upfield when he shoveled it ahead.  (Two not-so-smart plays to start the game off).  Then, BG shanked the punt, and SCS started on their 25.

The Hornets converted a 4th and 1, but a horrible snap followed by the QB jumping on the ball with no one near him left the Hornets punting.

We're in the second now. The Falcons picked up the pace here and never really eased off the throttle.  Dendy for 8, Kastantin for 10, then Dendy for 6 more before an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty tacked on 15.  Dendy carried three times for 14 yards, and BG was on the 20.  Kastantin ran for 5 yards, and the same Hornet player picked up a personal foul, and BG was down to the 7.  Dendy took it to the 1, and then he took it in.  BG was up 7-3 with 9:36 to play.

SCS made one first down, but Andrews and George killed the drive with a 14-yard sack, and BG started at their 28.  Amarchree broke off a 20-yard run. BG was at the SCS 35 and ready to punt, but Kingston was roughed, and BG had it first down at the 20.  BG stalled there...it was 3rd and 3 from the 13. BG came out with Kemp and ran the ball for a 2-yard loss, and BG kicked a FG to go up 10-3.  Maybe not ideal, but the lead was extended.

With 1:56 left, SCS started at their 25 and went 3-and-out.  BG had the ball at their own 26 with 1:28 left.  One thing that is vastly improved under our program is these two-minute drill situations, which were terrible under Loeffler.  BG hit Scooby for 17 on the first play and 12 on the second.  On first down, BG went across the middle, and SCS interfered.  Now from the 26.  On 3rd and 4, Scooby drew another DPI.  BG had a maddening delay of game from the 4.  Then, we saw what Kastantin can really do.  He was forced to move around in the pocket; he was going down, and he got a throw off to a wide-open Joseph Sappold in the end zone for a 17-3 lead.

SCS got the ball to start the half.  They were ready to roll.  They converted a 4th and 1 on their own 34. They got a 3rd and 3 from the 44. A 3rd-and-1 from BG's 42.  BG's defense finally locked down at this point, with Nick Sawyer making a nice PBU and 2nd and 5, and then Brown hurrying Sharman and forcing an INC and a 46-yard FG.  Remembering that their kicker's longest FG this year was 40, he promptly missed.

BG took the ball Ridley went for 25 on first down, Kastantin hit Sappold for 20 yards and Dendy crashed down the left sideline for a 30 yard touchdown return, and it was 24-3 and the game was pretty much over.

BG forced a punt, and the Falcons started on their 18. Kastantin scrambled down the middle for 22 yards.  That same Hornet got his third personal foul. Kastantin ran it in from 7 yards to make it 31-3.  On the next drive, Pringle forced a fumble, and Banks scooped it and scored, making it 38-3.  A garbage touchdown made the final 38-10.

BG finally found someone they could run against.  Dendy was 15 for 86 and 2 TD, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.  Kastantin was 7 for 54.  (Many have you been begging him to run more). Amarchree was 9 for 32 and Ridley was 2 for 34.  Overall, even with the garbage time, BG had 5.3 yards per carry.

Kastantin had a very solid game.  Yes, those two mistakes were not great.  But he's a playmaker.  He was 11 for 15...116 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.   Nine of the 11 were to Scoby and Saffold.  The TD was solely on his effort.

Special teams-wise, Kingston had 1 inside the 20 and one shank...and one inside the 20 where he was roughed. BG made their only FG. Nothing interesting in the return game either way.

Statistic	Bowling Green	Sacramento State
Total offense	355	215
Offensive plays	58	63
Yards per play	6.12	3.41
Rushing yards	218	70
Yards per rush	5.32	2.00
Passing yards	137	145
Completion percentage	76.5%	46.4%
Yards per completion	10.54	11.15
Third-down conversions	5/9 (55.6%)	3/14 (21.4%)
Red-zone points per trip	4.80	3.00
Turnovers	1	1
Explosive plays	6	2
Explosive-play yards	127	77
Explosive yards as % of offense	35.8%	35.8%
Special Teams Index	-2	+4
Penalties	3 for 25 yards	7 for 85 yards

Dorian Pringle had 8 tackles; Pascal, Lewis, and Banks had 7.

OK, so BG is 2-0 in the MAC and tied for first place.  Next up is Ball State, also at the Doyt.  BG has opened a 7-point favorite.  Will the Falcons continue to show consistent quality?  It is George's first back-to-back win streak.  Things are certainly more fun lately.

Hornet Preview

 OK... can you believe it's only been a week since the Miami game?  WOW.  Well, now we are ready to go again...

This time it's Sacramento State.  And it's the first time....to say the least.  Sac State is the newest FBS team and we all know by now that they bought their way into the MAC.  They are the Hornets.

They would be expected to have a rough time, and they are.  Now...in the SP+ they are ranking right next to BG, and the Falcons are 7.5 point favorites.  I sense that maybe Vegas isn't quite buying what happened last week.

They were 5.5 point dogs to UMass and got blown out. They were 8.5 point dogs to EMU and lost by 11.

FWIW, they are playing at 9 AM based on their body clocks.  It is the earliest game in their history.  Their notes say they practice regularly at 9AM.

They are coming off a bye week.

They are 1-4 this season, with their only win over an FBS team.  Since that win, they have gone down 115-19 in 3 games.

On offense, they are 10th in the MAC in scoring, BG is 11th in defense.  However, Sac State has not played any P4 opposition.  On paper, they rush for only yards per carry, and they have used 4 backs pretty evenly. Their top backs average 4.9 and 5 yards per carry, respectively.  The next two are not so good.

Not surprisingly, they have run the ball only 45% of the time. They are #10 in the MAC in pass efficiency. They complete 57% of their passes, which is 12th in the MAC and only 10 yards per completion, 5 TDs and 6 INT.  Jackson Sharman has started since game 2.  He's 9th in the MAC in passing efficiency.  He transferred from Idaho State.  They have WR Matthew Coleman, who is #3 in the MAC in receptions and #12 in yards per catch.  He transferred from SD State.

They are 7th is scoring defense and in yards per play allowed and yards per rush.  And 8th against the pass. They allow 68% completion rate, which is 12th, but only 11.2 per catch.  They are the only MAC team without an interception.  

While we are at it, they are -9 on turnovers.  

They have a decent punting game and are 6-8 on FGs, but nothing over 40.  Not much going on the return game either way.

Here's what the thing is.  We look across the field and think, hey, here is somebody we can beat.  They look across the field and see the exact same thing.

BG needs to put a streak together to restore faith in where we are going. That week was just perfect.  But it needs to be paid off with wins as we hit an easier part of our schedule.

Past and Future Opponent Land

  Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (4-0)  Beat Chicago State

Sep. 12 Nebraska (5-0) Beat Maryland

Sep. 19 Iowa State (3-2) Beat WVU

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (4-1) Lost to Temple

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (2-3) We beat them

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-3)  Idle hands

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-4) Lost to UT

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (2-3) Lost by 3 to WMU.  Went for TD instead of for tie.

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (3-2*) Beat BSU

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-3) Lost to OU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (4-1) Beat Ball Stte

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-1).  Sham revealed; EMU smokes them.

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-16

MAC vs G?: 6-10

Sweet Victory

 Oh, sweet victory.  Man.  It is just the best.  And that team, on the road, beating Miami of all people.  Was a good day to be a Falcon.

How good.  Let's ask Chuck Martin. "Obviously, 'disappointing' is an understatement,' said head coach Chuck Martin. 'That's a game we've got to win... we should win that game, and we didn't get it done."

HA HA HA.  F*ck Miami.

Or...

And congrats to everyone involved, players, coaches, and staff.  So much hard work finally rewarded. They have proven to be resilient, to be improving, and now be a team we can expect to be competitive.

Great job.

This one was won where two others were lost--in the last 2 minutes.  The game was tied 24-24.  MU was 2nd and 7 from the 8 with 1:54 left.  BG had already held them to 2 FGs and 1 TD in three previous red zone trips, and they stiffened up again, forcing incompletions on two well-covered throws to the end zone, but the short FG gave them the lead, 27-24.

BG had 1:47 left, all its timeouts, and the ball on the 25. We have certainly been here before.  Missed some key throws last week that Coach called out in evaluating our QB.  This was different.  Kastantin was great.  Miami was gangbusters rushing, but Kastantin moved in the pocket, stepped up, and threw darts to WRs who had, glory be, created some space.  Playcalling was good: short passes, higher percentage.

And we were playing for the win not to be in field goal range.

Ridley for 14.  Scoby for 18. Incompletion, and then Amarchee for 9 and out of bounds.  Third and one from the 34 with:47 left. Jacon-Duffy for 8 and BG timeout.  Winn Sharp for 9 to the MU 17 and out of bounds. Incompletion, 3rd and 1, and Kastantin scrambles for the first, and BG calls timeout on the 14 with :22 left.  Incompletion.  Frankly, still looking like a FG to tie the game.

Then, BG spotted a mismatch, with Scoby lined up against a smaller safety.  BG went to the right corner, and Minich was forced to interfere with Scoby to prevent the TD.  Never saw a less-protested DPI in my life.  

From the 2 with:12 left.  Let us stop to recall the pivotal 4th down play last week against USF.  BG lines up in an I-formation...old-school...but instead of going to the TB, they handed it to the up back, Leo Kemp, who powered and stretched his way into the end zone for the TD.  

That's what I'm talking about.

So.  A few things jump out here.  First, BG's yards per play.  Our previous high was 5.5 against Tarleton, but 3.6 against Iowa State was the highest against DI.  Here, BG put up 6.1, a significant improvement.  The key appears to be something that many of you have been asking for.  BG was unable to run...again. They averaged 3 yards per carry, sack-adjusted.

So BG adjusted.  They ran 60 plays, and 37 were passes, plus the sack and any dropback-scrambles.  And that was a key in this game.  Coach said Kastantin had to get better, and he did.  68% completions, 12 yards per catch, 2 TD and 0 INT is a hit in any league.  And when the pressure was on, he delivered.

BG also converted on 3rd down---this makes a huge difference.  And that's on an average of 5.7 yards to go.

Lastly, BG made good use of explosion plays.  They had fewer than Miami...but they were very explosive.

The defense was outstanding again.  The Falcons controlled the rush.  MU's QB is their third QB, but he looked pretty solid as well.  As with the USF game, the defense kept BG in the game and then got the huge stop that led to the winning drive and then the sack to close the door.  If we keep playing defense like that, we're in every game.

Special teams went Miami's way...a couple long FGs and three punts inside the 20.

Last key.  Miami had 12 penalties for 103 yards.  That's not going to sit well, for sure.

Metric	Bowling Green	Miami (OH)
Yards per Rush	2.7	3.1
Yards per Completion	12.2	11.6
Completion %	67.6% (25/37)	70.8% (17/24)
Yards per Play	6.1	5.2
3rd Down Conversions	50.0% (6/12)	27.3% (3/11)
Red Zone Efficiency	100% (3/3)	100% (4/4)
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	6-64	12-103
Explosion Plays	4 — 155 yards	7 — 143 yards
Special Teams Index	+1	+7

Kemp was our leading rusher...with 25 yards on 3 carries and a long of 17. Brennan Ridley was 9 for 95, long of 48 and the first big grab to get the winning drive started. Winn Sharp was 5 for 63.  Dorian Pringle is back--he had 10 tackles. Eriq George had 8 tackles and 3 sacks. Cashmire Lewis had 7 tackles and 2 sacks. (Bradley did play with a big club).

So everything looks different.  Now, good games have to be stacked onto one another.  We will be favored next week for the first time in a long time.  I was especially excited to see our WRs start to be productive, along with the hybrid TEs.  

Let's go!

Miami Preview

 And on we go.  We are one-third of the way through the year, and winless.  Yet every year brings this kind of reset...we start MAC play.  If things turn around, we can forget about the slow start.  And the MAC is where we are supposed to be able to compete.  It has been 11 years since we hoisted the trophy or played for it.

Miami is first up.  The MAC seems to be lining up into haves and have-nots, and I fear Miami is in the first group and we are in the second.  They supposedly pay their players competitive rates, and they have played in the last 3 MAC title games, winning one of them.

We did not play them last year.  After the Big Ben season, they were pretty average for a few years, but things have changed since Chuck Martin arrived.  Miami has won 6 of 8 vs. BG in that time, and BG's last win in Oxford was a shocking 37-29 win in 2017.  Miami won the last meeting, 28-12 at the Doyt...a division title was at stake, but Loeffler's Falcons could not hold serve, and Miami moved to the final.

Defense has been Miami's calling card.  Over the last 5 years, they have been in the top 3 in the MAC in scoring defense, while ranking in the top 5 in offense only once in that period.

Things have been a little different this year, but they could still change in MAC play.  They are 2-2. They have an easy win over Holy Cross, and a thrilling homecoming win over UConn, led by a backup QB and a FR kicker cashiering the winning FG. They lost big to Pitt (59-14) and lost a shootout, 35-31, to UC.

They are #88 in SP+.  BG, the MAC's only winless team, is #136, ahead of only ULM and Charlotte. They are 13.5-point favorites.

That's with David McComb, their Kansas transfer star QB, #2 passer in the MAC, is out for the season.  So, down your starting QB, still a 14-point favorite.

Their backup is Caleb Havener, a JUCO transfer.  He had big numbers there and was 3-3 leading Miami's winning drive against UConn.

They rank #4 in scoring in the MAC this year and #2 in yards per play at 6.8. Here's where the QB injury could be trouble...they are #11 in running the ball to date and #2 in passing efficiency.  They are relying on passing, and if they struggle to do that, they present a different team.  

They are #3 on 3rd down, which is a force multiplier.  They have 8 TDs and 3 FGs on 12 red-zone attempts.

On paper, everything is a mismatch with the BG defense after Nebraska and Iowa State.  That said, BG showed strong defense last week, and if it continues, this becomes a more winnable proposition.  Assuming BG's offense doesn't do a 180, its defense will need to compete in any game this year.  BG will be without Myles Bradley, who had four sacks against USF.

Speaking of sacks, Miami has allowed six sacks on 112 attempts.

Miami is -1 on turnovers.

Defensively, Miami is #7 in scoring defense, #7 in yards per rush allowed, and #9 in passing efficiency defense.  Ordinarily, this might be viewed as an opportunity for BG, but it's going to take a surprising performance for BG to capitalize on this.  MU allows 66% completions, has only 1 INT, and allows 12.1 yards per completion.

They rank #7 in defending 3rd down and have allowed 10 TDs on 11 red-zone attempts.

Special teams-wise, their kicking has struggled. (Highly unusual for Miami). Their original kicker was 2-6 with a long of 24, so they brought in Brady Stidham to nail the winner (from 33) against UConn.  The original kicker (McLaughlin) is still listed at the top of their depth chart.  BG is the only team that hasn't missed a FG this year.

Miami would have to have a punter named Pierse, yes spelled with the "S." Miami is #9 in net punting, while BG is last.

In the return game, Scoop Smith is #2 in the nation in Kickoff returns, averaging 44 with one TD. Their punt return is negligible.

We would be remiss not to mention the insane history between these two schools.  Miami has dominated the series, amid crazy games like the last one on Doytgrass, the Fog Bowl, the 4th down call, it goes on.  There was one year when Miami's long snapper put three of them out of the end zone.

You get the idea.

George Presser

 Coach George had his presser today.  A couple of interesting points.

First, Myles Bradley is doubtful for next week.

Second, Clint Corpe did his best to ask the question that I think most fans have.  In fact, it's as close as any member of the media has come in years to asking a hard question to a BG Coach.  Questions usually are like, "how did this feel?" and "how tough was that?"

He asked Coach about why we didn't take to the pass game sooner, given that it was clear we weren't going to be able to run....a question that has been on the lips of many fans.  And Coach said that it was because we didn't think we could protect the QB and that kept us from looking downfield more.  He also noted that we tried a few downfield shots, but didn't execute them, including on the last drive.

He was also asked about Kastantin's play.  He said "he has to get better."  The question left open that there might be a change, but he didn't take that bait.  Coach said that the Jay missed some throws that were open and he has to learn to execute under pressure.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (3-0)  Bye

Sep. 12 Nebraska (4-0) Won easily @MSU.

Sep. 19 Iowa State (2-2) Lost to Utah

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (4-0) Beat us

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (2-3) Beat UConn (HA HA Candle)

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-3) Lost 35-6 to UMass

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-3) Lost to Kent

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (2-2) Beat Robert Morris 31-28

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (2-2*) As nation watched, loss to Boise 32-7 in Kzoo

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-2) Beat BSU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (3-1) Cruised past SD State

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-0).  Beat Sac State

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-16

MAC vs G?: 6-10