Falcon MBB enjoys historic night

 There's an old movie called Private Benjamin.  Goldie Hawn plays the lead...she sees an ad that seems to indicate the US Army is like a resort vacation.   So she she joins.  One day after crawling through the mud, being screamed at, etc, she tells her CO that there has been a mistake.  "I joined the other Army," she says.

I thought of that last night.  When Todd Simon came to BG, he said we were going to score.  He wanted to score 100, 125 a game.  Southern Utah was third in the nation in scoring or something like that.  We were going to run and shoot.

What we got was crawling through the mud, a severe lack of shooters, Hugerish offense, an inability to finish at the rim...well, last night, we got the resort version we had been promised.  And it was glorious.

BG led nearly wire to wire, leading for over 37 minutes, by as much as 18, never closer than 5 and over 10 for the last 9 minutes of the game.

BG had an historic offensive night.  They shot 70% from 2FG, 50% from 3FG (and over half our shots from 3FG) and 15-17 at the line.  That's 1.51 points per possession, which is the highest BG has had since kenpom started in 1997 (D1 games only).  It's the 3rd best effective FG% and the #8 2FG%.

It was a great night.  Outstanding opening crowd of 3,000....I think they will be back.

I know...we're going to play better teams than Cleveland State.  It's just a feeling watching them play.  CSU scored, too, if you want to focus on that.

Here is a new stat I'm running this year.  I have been interesting in liveball turnovers (ie steals) and how teams capitalize them.  This is incredible.  BG scored 2.8 points per live ball steal, of which there were five. That's an amazing number.  Generally 3 would be the maximum, (I guess you could get 4-point plays), and BG had 2.8.

Individually, there's a lot to tell.  Makhi Leach is a problem.  Moved to PG, he is a lot to handle.  He had 22 points on 6 of 9 and 1 of 4 shooting, 7-8 at the line, 8 assists over 2 turnovers, 3 steals and 4 rebounds and +16.  If a line like that is of interest to you.

Josiah Shackleford continues to emerge at a star producer as well. He had 25 of 5 of 9 and 6 of 9 shooting, team-high six rebounds, and 3 assists with +9.

Tristan Beckford had 12 in 21 minutes.  He made all five of this 2FGs, including two dunks that brought the house down.  And me made 2-3 at the line.  He was +18 in those limited minutes, but did have 3 TO and 3 fouls.

Zach Howell had 12...1 of 2 and 3 of 6.  +12 in 30 minutes. Cranford had 9 on 3-4 from 3FG. Preston Squire is a different player...30 minutes, +8, 5 rebounds.  KJ Torbert had a steal-dunk.  And Jayden Johnson got in for the first time.

Christ Essandoko, the big man, was in a boot and on crutches.  It did not look day-to-day.

Next up is Thursday with the Niagara Purple Eagles at the Stroh.

Golden Flashes Preview

10 days is a long time in a football season.  Hope everyone had a chance to get healthy, talk to their agent (kidding, maybe.)

Kent is one of the normally struggling teams in the MAC. In recent years, Darrell Hazell had big success one year, and Sean Lewis had some good years.  Then they have complete disasters like the Kenni Burns hiring.  Mark Carney, like Lewis a former BG assistant, took over last year as interim and won the job.  He is 6-7 in MAC play.

Like BG, Kent plays 2 P4 teams to pay the bills.  This year it was Ohio State and South Carolina.  They won their FCS game, but lost 29-2 to South Florida.

In the MAC, they beat BSU and Akron, and lost (narrowly) to OU, and were blown out by WMU and Sacramento State (on the road).

Having said that, Kent has won 6 of the last 10 against BG.  Lewis was 5-0 vs. BG, then Burns was 0-2, and Kent beat BG 24-21 last year in Kent. Lewis hung 60 on Loeffler twice.  BG is a 5.5-point favorite.

MAC Leaders:

• WR Wayne Harris leads the MAC with 102 receiving yards a game.  He's a big playmaker, with a YPC over 17.
• QB Dru DeShields is #2 in total offense.
• Hayden Dawahare is #5 in sacks.

Looking at the stats comparison, what jumps out is:

• Kent is terrible on offense.  BG's defense has to assert control early in this one. If you see Kent running the ball effectively, we are in trouble.  They need to keep DeShields in the pocket.BG's offense is nothing to write home about, but it ranks better than Kent's.  Just for example, KSU scored 3 against SacSTATE.  Kent does play decent defense on the whole.  Hopefully, BG can convert on 3rd down, keep the ball and the defense will play complementary football and provide some short fields.  Note, also, that Kent has a solid pass rush.
• Both teams play poor special teams.  BG has a good FG kicker at least, which Kent does not.

So, nothing on the line.  As Clawson says, we find out who loves football in these games.  No offense to our long-time opponent, but losses to Kent don't sit well with our fanbase.

 

Non-Skol Viking Preview

BG has its home opener for MBB tomorrow as Cleveland State heads into town.  This is a tough one to preview, given that it is so early in the season and the teams are so new.  Here are a few notes.

Cleveland State has had success.  Mouse McFadden took them to the Sweet 16 in 1986.  They have been to the NCAAs two other times.

Starting in 2020, they won at least 19 games in five straight years.  That spanned Dennis Gates through the entire tenure of Daiyal Robinson. Gates coaches Missouri now (3 Big Dance appearances) and Robinson is at North Texas.

Rob Summers is the new coach.  He once coached against BG when he was at Urbana. He is from the Dennis Gates coaching tree, serving as an assistant with him at Cleveland State and Missouri.

Last year was not great---they went 11-22.  This year's roster is a complete turnover.

They are 1-1.  They lost 111-50 to Missouri and beat Michigan-Dearborn 103-79, so we can't tell much there.

BG and Cleveland State have played 20 times.  BG has won 11.  BG has won 5 of the last 7 and the last 2 at home.

They were picked 10th (out of 12) by Blue Ribbon and 11th in the league poll. (Behind NIU).

Last year, they struggled on defense.  They were #362 out of 365 in defensive efficiency. They were especially easy to shoot against and poor on the defensive boards.

Rayvon Griffith is their leading scorer.  He's 6'8" and was a top 100 recruit, he played at UC and Kent before landing with the Vikings.  He's scoring 23.5 PPG.  He'll be a good matchup with Beckford.

Dre Jones has started both games.  He's 6'9" and also played at Kent.  He only played 7 games last year.  He's averaging 7 RPG.

Their PG is Jordan Lowery, a former all-FR guard in the WAC (Arlington).  And their 5th starter is Curtis Stinson, a former Iowa HS POTY who transferred from North Texas.

Micah Bays is coming off the bench.  He was a big scorer at Central State.

Kenpom gives BG a 78% chance of winning.  

Falcon MBB Gets Road Win in Opener

 BG's visit to Atlanta ended up with a victory.  As it always seems to, we ended up with some heart-wrenching minutes, but a win is a win, especially in an opener on the road.

The first half was competitive the entire way.  Seven minutes in, BG was down 1.   Key note...that's a minute after Christ Essandoko injured his ankle, not to return.  It shifted BG's rotation.  BG took the lead back with 9 to play and led by 4 with 8 to play (on an amazing dunk by Tristan Beckford, a Maple Leaf Special).

BG got the lead up to 5 with 5 minutes left, but then GSU rallied to tie the game.  The teams swapped baskets over the last two minutes, and then Josiah Shackleford stuck back on OREB to tie the game at the half.

BG bolted out to a 15-point lead on a 19-4 run with 14 to play.  With 8:57 minutes to play, BG had the lead up to 19... and a 98.7% chance of victory. (Which they did.)

Anyway, mark that.  From that point on, GSU outscored BG 27-11.  BG made one basket over that time...a nice Zach Howell baseline cut that Squire found.  BG missed six free throws in that span.  It was agonizing as the lead almost melted away.

It was agonizing within Agonizing.  With 1:21, BG was up 6.  Meyer was fouled and missed the second.  Beckford nailed the board, but they smartly fouled Beckford with 1:03 left and BG up 5.

Beckford adds a huge amount to our team.  He's unbelievably athletic, a great rebounder, and a finisher at the rim.  What he doesn't do is shoot....and that includes at the line.  Unless that improves, I don't see how he stays on the floor in late-game situations.  BG doesn't have an obvious replacement—no surprise there—and probably has to go small.

He missed both FTs. Meyer scored, and it was a 3-point lead with :46 to play.  Beckford is fouled...this time he split the pair to make it +4, and then the Panthers nailed a 3, and it was a 1-point lead with :18. GSU fouled Zack Howell, who hit both FTs to put BG up 3 with :13. BG fouled rather than allow a 3.  Meyer cut the lead to 1.  Shackleford hit 2 FTs, and BG was up 3, and the last shot missed.

In the end, BG ended up with 1.07 PPP, which is below the D1 average last year of 1.09.  They allowed 1.03, which is a solid defensive effort.  One thing I am going to track this year is scoring after live-ball turnovers.  BG had a decent night as did Georgia State.  I think you will see BG get up nearer to 2 in other games.  This just underscores the importance of live ball turnovers, especially when your half-court offense can struggle.  And you can see what happens with the rest of the possessions.

BG won three of the four categories.  BG made 56% from 2FG and 38% from 3FG, both really solid numbers, with 38% of their shots from 3FG.  GSU hit 38% from 2FG (not good) and 43% from 3FG with 55% of their shots from 3FG.

Slight turnover edge to GSU, but BG dominated on the offensive boards and getting to the line...the advantage was not as good as you might expect...BG was 14 of 26, and Georgia State was 6-12, so BG +8 at the line, including four down the stretch.

Individually....uh, Zach Howell.  DII transfer, first D1 game.  Scored 28, 4-4 on 2FG and 6-10 on 3FG, 2-2 at the line, and 8 rebounds.  This dude is someone we can use.  He reminds me of Jackson Paveltzke, reads as a gym rat, can shoot 3FG, and also has a mean back door cut.  

Shackleford (3-10 and 1-5, 3-4 at the line, 9 rebounds, 3 assists) and Leach (3-8, 0-1, 6 of 9 at the line) both had 12.  So did Tristan Beckord, who shot 5-5 from 2FG, 0-1 from 3FG, 2 of 9 at the line, 7 rebounds but 6 turnovers.  And four fouls.

Some other observations.  Preston Squire had 8 and 4 in 25 minutes, but did look like a different player and was +12.  Trey Simmons, a prolific scorer in DII, finished 0-2 shooting and -14 in 9 minutes.  Look for upside here. KJ Torbert played 1 minute. Cam Karel got minutes with Essandoko down, but was -10 in 10 minutes.

Jayden Johnson, Talan Staley, Goins and Atey DNP.

A win is a win.  Especially on the road. Next week, Cleveland State will head to the Stroh for the home opener.

Georgia State Up First for MBB

 Some quick notes:

• This is the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge. BG is 3-3 in the challenge, and Georgia State is 4-2.  The SBC has never lost the challenge, with 2 victories and 1 tie.
• They are the Panthers.
• BG beat Georgia State in their only meeting in 2008 at a tourney in Minnesota.  It was the first game of Orr's second season.
• Georgia State's new coach is Jon Cremins, the nephew of longtime coaching great Bobby Cremins.  It is his first D1 head coaching gig.
• He has 1 returning player, 11 transfers and 3 FR.
• They are picked 10th in the media poll and 13th (out of 14) in Blue Ribbon.
• Georgia State is a 3.5-point favorite.
• Jacob Meyer is their lead player.  He's 1st team all-SBC pre-season.  He is a UAB transfer, where he scored 12PPG on 41% (!!) shooting and 30 assists.
• Jaden Jackson transferred from South Dakota State.  He scored 12.3 PPG on 40% shooting and 81 assists.
• Eric Parnell transferred from Farleigh-Dickenson, and averaged 10.7 PPG.
• Their other projected starters are Jacon Fedson-Cole, who averaged 5.5 last year, and Mason Nichelson (6'10"), who came from Vanderbilt, where Cremins was an assistant.
• Others include AJ Smith, who was playing well at Temple before he got injured for the year.
• Terrance Dixon, Jr. transferred from Southern, where he scored 9 PPG.
• Georgia State has appeared in the NCAA Tourney 6 times since 1991. :(

Falcons Fall Again

 On the road for a family wedding, so probably won't get the full treatment today.  I did listen to the full game with Todd and John while we were on the road.  They do an outstanding job.  Gibby has really matured into a great analyst...he uses his knowledge as a football player to help understand what BG is doing right and wrong.

The upshot is that BG played the defending champs very well. They are a very good team, and we gave them a lot to handle.  The defense rebounded after last week and that kept BG in the game.

BG didn't win the game because after they scored on the first drive, they didn't get another TD.  There were 7 punts, a turnover, 4th down stops, whatever.

The offense was exposed because we just don't have the players.  Dendy was out, which doesn't help, but even so, the line is simply too young (coach called it "baptism under fire") and/or unable to block the run or protect the pass. Also, the line is down a key starter who gutted it out yesterday, but clearly was struggling. Katernick is the guy we need because he's good and feeling pressure and extending plays.  But as Gibby said "imagine what he could do it we blocked for him."  And we remain thin at WR..on a lot of those scrambles there was no one open.

So, if you're going to win that game, you have to be mistake-free. And that means not allowing an 82 yard TD run, not missing an easy FG, not grinding the way down the field to let the HB throw a pass, not throwing a key INT late in the game.  There are more...but...the simple idea is that parts of this team are not bad, but they are not good enough to carry the parts of the team that are bad.

We head into a 10-day break, which gives everyone a chance to talk to their agent.  (He says, kind of cynically).  The season is over.  At 2-7, there will be no bowl game.

How do the guys react?  I will say this.  I don't agree that our guys are dead.  They are playing hard in every game.  All of the losses except the P4 games were games we could have won. We didn't...but we have been competitive with everyone else.

I am as sure as I can be that Coach George will be back.  This year, year two, is not a year where you fire the coach, especially one who started late in year one. The team has not quit on him and I think we are close to being back.  Who stays, who comes in via the portal, those are key.  And I do think we can improve the coaching.  Some run/pass flexibility is important until the line can support the cloud of dust offense. There are some bizarre play calls.  Coach expressed confidence in Coach Nosal as a line coach...I think it's hard to call plays for a team that can't block.

It hasn't been a terrible season, not like a couple years ago when we were getting destroyed every week.  Let's beat Kent and then head to the Glass Bowl.

Happy Halloween to the Falcon Nation