Miami University Too Much for BG MBB

BG lost to the better team.  That's just a very good basketball team. It was better than the first meeting, where the Redhawks blew the lead over 20 in the first half and coasted home.  In this one, the first 8 minutes were very competitive, with 11 lead changes and a lot of effective scoring.  The problem is that you have to be able to keep it up for 40 minutes.  From about 11 minutes to 4 minutes, MU went on a 21-3 run that essentially decided the game.

BG didn't fold.  They would put some things together and get the lead down to 10, and then MU would come down and answer with a 3FG.  It got as close as 8, but not closer.

The news from the bracketology guys is "good."  Good if you just think Miami should be in the tourney.  "Good" if they have to play a play-in game.

I will say this, they do not seem to be playing tight.  With what they have on the line, they seem loose and relaxed.  It is something to watch.

BG didn't have a good offensive game, but it wasn't terrible.  They scored 1.04 points per possession.  Obviously, not nearly enough. MU packed their defense in, and it did seem to work.  BG made 40% from 3FG, which is good, but only 46% from 2FG. In fact, BG was 55% inside the restricted area, while MU made 69%. We were also 5 of 14 in the non-restricted paint...below 50% inside the paint.

To be sure, there was lots of traffic due to things being packed in.  We tried 39% from 3FG, our most in MAC play.  I don't think we're set up for more.

I know this is illogical, but finishing at the rim has been a program issue spanning hundreds of players. I remember Orr saying we had to learn to make "zero footers."

Miami scored 1.23 points per possession... which is their 10th-best in D1 games this year, FWIW.  Almost exactly what they shot in the first game.

Their EFG was 63%, making 61% from 2FG and 43% from 3FG...get this...they have been BETTER THAN THAT 10 times this year in D1 games.

They took good care of the ball and got to the line a lot.  They don't crash the boards, and why would you?  Get back and keep the game in the half-court.  BG was 11 of 15 at the line, and MU was 18 of 27, which is poor for them.

I have to say, you know, if you read here, I am a metrics guy.  But the eye test?  This team could be a Sweet 16 team.

Javonte Campbell had 24 points.  He was 7 of 15 and 2 of 3 from the field, 4 of 6 at the line, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 3 turnovers.

Mayer Wol came on late, scoring 15 of 3 of 6 and 3 of 6 shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 turnovers.

Shackelford had scored 12 on 1 of 4 and 3 of 5 shooting. Towns and Glover had 6 rebounds each.

So, the beat goes on.  BG has three games left.  WMU, UMass and @EMU.  With two wins, they go to 9 wins and almost certainly make the tournament--in fact, that could be certain by the end of today.  The WMU game is an absolute must-win, though.

Football Update

 Probably time for a football update.

The biggest news is that Sacramento State has joined the Mid-American Conference.  There's been a lot of debate on it...it is one of those situations where more than one thing can be true.

In my opinion:

• It is objectively ridiculous.
• In a world where eligibility has no meaning, guys are playing for 7 years, etc...the word ridiculous has almost been stripped of its meaning. The move makes "sense."

In Logan Roy's words, the MAC "screwed them out."  What started at $10M ended up at an $18M dowry, plus paid charter flights to Sacramento, and we don't pay them anything from our conference share.

Boy, did Sac State want this.  Just amazing.  It's football only.  And only for five years.  Rather than an exit fee, there's an expiration date.  My guess is that Sac State hopes to go elsewhere in year 6, but if they want to stay, the MAC will get another chance to squeeze the IV tube.

Something else is revealed, I think. There's a general belief that the MAC is at risk...as is every part of the existing status quo.  Even $18M is 4% of the MAC's overall athletic spending.  Some have said it stabilized the conference...and my guess is that means keeping Akron and Kent on the football field.

Tom Hanks went to Sacramento State.

Their coach is Alonzo Carter, who was once a backup dancer for MC Hammer.  When BG plays them, we will have an MC Hammer dancer and a Broadway Performer on the sidelines.

In other news, DB Coach Derrick Jackson left the BG staff to go to Louisville.  He was a Loeffler holdover.  It's too bad.  I think our D-backs have generally punched above their weight.  No word on the new coach.  It will be interesting to see whether Coach George has a network large enough to keep the staff stocked.  That's an open question right now.

Coach was interviewed by David Briggs.  The gist of the article was that even though BG brought back only 2 starters, Coach George feels like we got better.

What was that about the definition of ridiculous?

I've looked at the players who came in...there was one position group where everybody left, and not a lot was done to bring in transfers, and that's the O-line.

For context, 760 snaps was a full season for BG last year.  Here are the career snap counts for the returning Falcon linemen.  Sanchez came from Northern Arizona, where most of his snaps also occurred.  Thomas and Bolyn saw their only real action last year. 

When Loeffler came in, we had inexperienced and young lines.  These guys are at least a little older.

What I hear is Bolyn is going to play C.

In terms of incoming,  I believe Travis Robertson will start. He's a true FR and a 3-star who committed to BG, switched to UCLA before switching back.  He's ranked as one of our top recruits ever at BG. He's an early enrollee, and I believe he will start.

As for the other position, who knows?  One of the other guys above?  There was one transfer,  Gabe Funk from App State, where he did not play. He was a two-star out of HS, with offers from most MAC teams.

It may be archaic, but BG has re-tooled at QB and TE...maybe at WR, and Austyn Dendy is back.  None of that will matter if we can't block.

I know the staff knows that, so they were either comfortable working with what they had or couldn't do any better.  If Novosad spends the entire season running for his life and our backs are being hit behind the line of scrimmage, we'll know the answer.

MAC MBB Permutations

 

Oh Boy! Undefeated Redhawks At Millett

Well, the Falcons drop into the national spotlight tonight, battling the undefeated Miami Redhawks in what will be a rocking Millett Hall.

Miami might be having the most remarkable season in MAC history.  It is certainly the most successful.  Nobody goes undefeated anymore.  It's just been incredible to watch.  What an experience.

And yet, I think they feel like nothing's been accomplished yet.  Don't get me wrong--in a sane, just world, they would be locks for an at-large bid to the tournament even if they don't go undefeated, even if they lose more than one. But they can't feel that way, because teams with, for example, 30-3 records have been left out before.

Lunardi has them at #11, which is right where he has the play-in games, meaning they are ranked right at the cut line.  The problem is the pre-MAC schedule, which was among the lowest in D1.  To me, at 25-5 that would make a difference.  They have carried it through conference play... so far... and they should be playing in the tourney.

I'd like to take you back to March 5, 2000.  Quarter-finals.  BG is 22-6 and #1 seed. Having a special season. They are up 3, and time is running out.  Jason Grunkemeyer hit a 35-footer at the buzzer to force OT, in which BG scored only 2 points and lost.  No at-large bid came for the Falcons.  It is probably the greatest heartbreak in our program's history.  It's basketball's Fat Punter.

Let's return the favor. It has been long enough.

Today, Jason is the Deputy AD at Maine, btw.

BG played them back in the dark days of December, between Christmas and New Year.  The final deficit was 10, but the game was not close.  Miami ripped off a 29-4 run, led by 26 at the half and by 17 with 10 left.

Miami is just a scoring machine.  They are #1 in the MAC in offensive efficiency, #1 in shooting, and #3 in the country.  They take 46% of their FGA from 3FG and make 37% (#4 in MAC, #13 in D1) and they lead the make with 64% on 2FG, #3 in the country).

They combine that with being 4th in taking care of the ball and 2nd at getting to the line, where they make 78%, #2 in the MAC.  That's enough to be a formidable scoring machine. The only thing they aren't great at is offensive rebounds, where they rank #12, undoubtedly because they don't crash the boards.

They are #3 in defense. They are #7 in defending the shot, #6 against the 3FG, and #8 on the 2FG. They are 5th at forcing turnovers, #4 on the defensive boards, and #3 at keeping teams off the line.

This is just a locked-down team.  BG's going to have to play great in every phase.  They are going to have to play great defense and make some shots.  Probably a lot.

Peter Suder is their leading scorer with 16.5 PPG on 59%/37%/78% shooting.  He adds 5.2 RPG and 64 assists.  He had 17, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in the first game.

Brant Byers scores 15.9 PPG, making 62%/43%/80%.  He's #1 in the MAC in total shooting, which is those three added up. He had 17 and 6 in the first game.

Eian Elmer is scoring 14.3 PPG on 67%/43%/77%, #2 in total shooting.  He leads the team with 5.8 RPG.  He is #1 in the MAC in EFG%. 

Luke Skaljac scores 13 PPG on 65%/31%/75% shooting. He has 62 assists. He scored 15 PPG and 5 assists in the first game.

Antwone Woolfork scores 10.5 and leads the MAC in 2FG at 75%.  He scored 14 in the first game without missing a FG or FT attempt.

Basketball Set Back Decades, Kent beats BG MBB

Well, that makes it 14 straight.

Kent continued their mastery with a defense-oriented slugfest victory at the Stroh, beating BG 78-71.

It was often hard to watch. There were 54 fouls called and 76 FTs.  BG made only 20 baskets; Kent made 21.  

And let me say this.  I don't often complain about the officials.  They are never great, usually OK. This was an awfully officiated game.  When you have coaches screaming and yelling after every call, you know it is being mishandled.

Also, they should watch this...

The first 10 minutes were very close, with no one leading by more than 4.  BG went on a 7-0 run to lead by 7 with about 8 minutes left.  BG was up 6 with 6:13 to play when something odd happened...Coach Senderhoff got a T, BG made one FT, and led by 7.

That's not the weird part.

At that point, BG had 5 fouls, and Kent had 10.  The refs apparently thought Senderhof had a point, because they didn't call another foul on Kent for the rest of the half.  Six straight against BG.  Really?  Kent went from 10 fouls to none? 

And the score?  Kent 14, BG 2...Flashes by 5 at the break.

I mean, come on.

Kent did what they usually do, which is to inch a lead forward instead of getting a big run.  They got it to 9 with 15 to play.  BG chipped it to 4, but it was back to 9 with 10:33 left to play.  They kept building and hit it to 13 points with 8 minutes left. 

BG scored the next 9 points to get it back to 4 when Morgan Safford hit another 3 to quell the rally.

It was a 9-point lead with about 4 left, and BG went on a 9-2 run to cut the lead to 2 with 1:48 left.

Huge possession.  Kent comes down, and Shackleford committed his fifth foul, of which at least 4 were dumb fouls. Safford hit both FTs, and it was a 4-point lead with 1:39 left to play.

They fouled Troy Glover, who in all fairness had made 7 of 9 at the line so far in the game and has clearly improved at the line....but he missed them both.  

More FTs.  Kent split a pair and pushed the lead to 5.  Campbell got to the basket and cut it to 3.

This recap is as monotonous as it was in real life. There was not another one-score possession in the game, and BG lost by 5.

BG did not play a bad game on defense, holding KSU to 1.08 PPP.  Their EFG was only 47%. They made 39% from 2FG and 7 of 19 inside the restricted area.  They made 37% from 3FG, which is decent, and 51% of their shots were from 3FG. BG held them to 25% on the offensive boards, a significant accomplishment.  Their FT rate was 75%, second-worst of the year for the BG defense.  That means they shot 40 FTs and only 53 FGs.  They made 28 out of 40, for 70%, which is average.

Meanwhile, the Falcons scored .98 points per possession, their 6th worst this year.  EFG was 43.4%, with a very solid 50% on 2FG but 4 of 19 (21%) from 3FG.  BG did nothing on the offensive boards, had 3 more turnovers than Kent, and had a FTR rate of 69%.  BG made 25 of 36 FTs (69%), slightly below average.  Kent was +3 at the line.

Perfectly captures what a terrible game it was.

Campbell had 22 for BG, making 7 of 10 and 0 of 3.  He made 8 of 10 at the line.  Also, 4 assists, 3 TO, and 3 steals.

Glover had 17 and 7 rebounds, plus 4 blocked shots.  He scored 17...5 of 5 from 2FG and 7-11 at the line.

Sam Towns had 13, but it took a lot...making 2 of 6 from 2FG and 2 of 4 from 3FG.  Also, 11 rebounds.

So BG ends the day in sixth place.  They are still very likely to make it to Cleveland, but it would be nice to get a 5 seed.

Next up...America's preppy sweetheart.  Let's ruin it for them.

MBB Permutations

 

Can BG MBB Make it 4 MAC Wins In a Row

 Last year, starting on February 21, when Javonte Campbell daggered the Rockets at the buzzer, BG started a winning streak that ran to four straight MAC games.  BG moved from 4-9 to 8-9 and eventually qualified for Cleveland.  This year, the hole isn't as big, and we're already at 3 in a row...this is a tough week, though.  However, to the extent you are thinking you want to make that big run and win the MAC, these are the teams you will need to beat at Rocket Arena.

The next opponent is Kent State. They are 22-9/20-9/10-3 and in 3rd place in the MAC.  Their losses in conference are to Miami and Akron, the top two teams in the MAC, and then an inexplicable loss to CMU in Mt. Pleasant.

BG played a really tough game against Kent and probably should have won the game.  BG played with Ruffin out and Thomas essentially out. The score range was 13 points.  If you recall, BG was up 1 with :13 to play and had a stop.  But Campbell lost the ball in his legs, and Delrecco Gillespie picked it up and scored, putting Kent in the lead, and they went on to win.

It was a big offensive game for both teams.  It was BG's best offense in a losing effort this year.

Kent has now beaten BG 13 straight. It has been 2,544 days since we beat Kent.

All in all, this isn't the greatest Kent team.  They are #6 in offense and #5 in defense.

On offense, they are 11th in shooting, 10th from 2FG, and from 3FG. They are 5th in trying 3FGs. Their offensive strengths are offensive rebounding and getting to the line, both of which they are #1 at.  They are good at the line, shooting 76%. BG is #2 on the defensive boards, and that will be a key battle.  BG needs those boards to get into transition. Our work on the boards is pretty consistent, although UT really crashed the boards last time.

Back when we played all zone with Orr, Kent always had a game plan for attacking it.

Flipping it around, Kent is #2 against the shot, but they don't force turnovers. They are pretty good on the defensive boards (#5) and #8 at putting opponents on the line. They are #3 in defending the 3FG and the 2FG.  And yet, BG scored against them last time.

Kent is led by Delrecco Gillespie, a truly outstanding big man. He had 32 points and 10 rebounds in the first one. (MAC games only). He averages a double-double, 19.1/12.8.  That's 3rd in the MAC in scoring and 1st in rebounding.  He shoots 56% from 2FG and 81% at the line.  He insists on trying 3FGs and makes 29%. He's #2 in blocked shots. He draws 6 fouls a game. He's a career Flash who really rounded into form this year.

Rob Whaley is Gillespie's cousin and transferred from UNLV.  He is scoring 13.5 PPG on 55% 2FG shooting. He battled four trouble in the first meeting.

Morgan Safford transferred from Miami. He is scoring 12.8 PPG 49%/29%/82%.

Cian Medley leads the MAC with 6.9 APG.

So here we go.  BG will need that same all-possession intensity, because you know Kent will bring it.  Let's hope for a big crowd after the UT win.  BG is a 2.5-point favorite.  Let's snap that streak.