USF Preview

 All right, folks, here we go.  South Florida is in town... and BG will be going for their first win of the year against the 3-0 Bulls.  Here are some things to know.

The Bulls beat FIU 19-9, Army 28-24 and Delaware State 59-17.

They were picked #4 in the American Conference. 

We have played them once, in an Urban Meyer game.  We played in Tampa in 2002 and they beat us 29-7.

Right now, in SP+, they are #67.  BG is #156 (we are the #2 ranked DII team) and USF is a 17.5 point favorite tomorrow.

BG is going to have to show something we haven't seen in order to get this win.  Back at home, nice day, who knows?

Despite their two wins, there are signs that the Bulls are not necessarily as good as their record. Removing their FCS game, they are 2-0 in their FBS games but have been outgained by 80 yards per game, which is not normal.  That's probably at least partly because they are deadly good on 3rd down (46%) and are +4 in turnovers, and that's 4 takeaways and zero losses.

They are #37 in the nation in scoring defense and they are allowing 5.3 yards per play, which is not bad.  They are stronger against the rush (3.9 per carry) but #109 in passing defense.  They have given up 137 plays to their own 111, which I assume is from playing Army.

On the offensive side, they are pretty average...#87 in scoring, 5.2 yards per play--basically even with their defensive side, despite being 2-0.  They are rushing 3.8 yards per game, which is not good at all. They have passed effectively, with 63% of their passes completed and 11 yards per catch, which is a pretty good combination. They have also allowed only 1 sack in 48 attempts, #10 in the country.

Their coach, of course, is former Buckeye WR Brian Hartline.

As mentioned, they are making 46% on 3rd down and they are 100% in the red zone with 3 TDs and 3 FGS in 6 attempts.

They are very strong on special teams.  Nico Gramatica, son of Martin, is 4-4 this year with a long of 53.  They are #24 in net punting and #15 in kickoff return defense. 

Their QB, Michael Van Buren, JR., is a transfer from LSU who started the last four games of the '25 season for the Tigers.  Before that, he started 8 games at Mississippi State. He is a dual-threat QB.

None of the players were all-American conference in the pre-season.  That's not a surprise since they returned only 4 starters, with a new coach and all.

In summary, this is a 3-0 that is not as strong as most 3-0 teams are. They are rightfully heavily favored tomorrow, and there's every reason to think that's how it goes.  If BG is better than we think, this would be a good time to unveil it.

Past and Future Opponents

Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (3-0)  Beat Merrimack

Sep. 12 Nebraska (3-0) Beat North Dakota

Sep. 19 Iowa State (2-1) Beat us

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (3-0) Beat Delaware State

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (1-3) Lost to UC

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-2) Lost to NoDak State.

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-1) Beat Stony Brook

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (1-2) Smoked by Liberty

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (2-1*) Beat Rice

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (1-2) Lost to OSU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (2-1) Miracle comeback to beat Temple

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (3-0).  Beat Stonehill

MAC vs. FCS: 11-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-15

MAC vs G?: 4-6

Football Hates Me

 Bowling Green was wiped out again yesterday, this time against a P4 team, but far from a high-quality one...the Iowa State Cyclones, in the bottom part of the Big XII.

I'm not talking about not winning. I'm talking about representative games played last year against UC and Louisville, and wins over Georgia Tech and Minnesota under similar circumstances.  BG was a 23-point underdog and lost this one by 48.

Since beating Toledo, BG has lost 8 of 9.  The only win was putting a nail in UMASS' 0-12 season. 

There are 138 teams in the FBS.

BG is 135 in rushing defense and 125th in rushing offense.

BG is 132 in scoring defense and 136 in scoring offense.

BG is #135 in passing efficiency defense, #131 in TFL.

BG is the only team in the FBS that does not have at least one touchback on a kickoff.

Next up is USF, at 3-0 and the #63 FPI, according to ESPN.  BG is third from the bottom...8 of the bottom 12 are in the MAC.

The Iowa State game was close for one play.  BG scored on a nice pass to Winn Sharp, and then on the ensuing kickoff a guy named Cameron Pettaway housed it...did we know he could do that?

In the post-game, the worrisome thing is that Coach George talked about us failing on our fundamentals.  That's not actually that comforting.  Many of the guys who are playing were here for the Spring.  Between that and fall camp, we should have the fundamentals in place.  And apparently we don't.  Seems like it's the kind of thing that's tough to put together when you are 0-3.  

Here is the story of the numbers:

Statistic	Bowling Green	Iowa State
Yards per rush	3.0	7.9
Yards per completion	10.7	11.8
Completion %	40.9% (9/22)	66.7% (12/18)
Yards per play	3.6	7.9
3rd-down conversions	16.7% (2/12)	40.0% (4/10)
Red-zone efficiency	N/A (0 opportunities)	100% (3/3)
Turnovers	2	1
Special Teams Index	-9	+13
Explosive plays	4	11
Explosive-play yards	110	296

It's more one-sided than the Nebraska game.  Special teams were awful.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a new punter...Bowling Green is #113 in net punting and the punter has been mentioned in the last 2 post-game pressers, which can't be good.

Our top Dback, JoJo Johnson, is out for the year.

Novosad did play the 2nd half at QB,  Coach said that Kastantin was on an IV at half time, and they decided to see if Novosad would catch fire.  He did nothing to create a QB controversy.

I don't think the issue is at QB.  It starts up front and includes the entire defense.  Way too often there is no one in a spot someone should in...I have no idea whether they are underprepared or just not disciplined, but they are done with P4 play and will find the same problems haunting them when we get to the MAC.

It is a very difficult place for us to be.  There's nothing encouraging out there.  Coach says it's always darkest before dawn, but it keeps getting darker.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (2-0)  Beat McNeese State

Sep. 12 Nebraska (2-0) Beat us

Sep. 19 Iowa State (1-1) Lost to Iowa

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (2-0) Rallied to beat Army

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (1-1) Smoked Holy Cross

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-2) Lost big to Fresno State

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-1) Beat Stony Brook

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (1-1) Lost to FIU

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (1-1)  Beat Monmouth

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (1-1) Beat Woffrd

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (1-1) Beat Central Connecticut State

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (2-0).  Beat Sacred Heart

MAC vs. FCS: 10-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-9

MAC vs G?: 1-4

Nebraska Threshes Bowling Green

Well, that's not good at all.  I know, Nebraska is in the Big 10.  And I know this game is set up to lose. Still, Nebraska is not a powerhouse Big Ten team and we were thought to be 25 point underdogs.  We have 4 times (I think) post-Jinks won against teams when we were that kind of dog.  Further, we have had some tough battles in P4-5 games that later made us wonder why we couldn't beat Kent.

This was not that.  We doubled the point spread, and were beaten as badly as you can be in the first half of the game.  We did put together a nice drive in the 3rd quarter, but the 4th picked back up again for Big Red and the final was 56-7.  We were thumped.  For the first half, it felt like the Memphis game in Jinks' 1st season, when we gave up 70 two games in a row.  At the time, Jinks told his staff "they were lucky to still be working."

No point in going through the game narrative that we usually do.  Or even the stats, which I will anyway.   The special teams matrix is based on my system I used a few years ago, but got tired of calculating each week.  Now, AI can do it for me.  (It's a zero-based system with points for positive plays and negative points for negative plays, but average plays (like a 30-yard FG) are 0.  Full rubric here.)  The most significant special teams play was the blocked punt, where Coach said Kingston was just too slow getting the ball out of there.

Statistic	Bowling Green	Nebraska
Yards per rush	2.7	7.8
Yards per completion	8.4	10.8
Completion %	62.5%	81.3%
Yards per play	3.5	8.3
Third-down conversions	2/12 (16.7%)	5/8 (62.5%)
Red-zone efficiency	1/1 (100%)	4/4 (100%)
Turnovers	2	1
Special Teams Index	-3	+4
Explosive plays	4	12
Yards on explosive plays	60	289

No surprises here.  BG had a good completion percentage but were forced to work close to the line of scrimmage.

Coach George looked a little shell-shocked in the post-game presser.  He did not have his usual swagger, that is for sure.  He said the usual things...we will get it together, etc.  I swear he said "it's always darkest before the dawn," which is never something you want to hear.  Also, Nebraska pressured us up the middle, and he mentioned specifically that we had trouble at center and at guard.  That will need to be fixed, because every team will pressure us right up the middle.

So on we go.  It's dark, Coach was right about that.  It's Iowa State, South Florida and the Miami...an 0-5 start is certainly very possible.  Which makes 6-6, you know, hard to see.

Nebraska Preview

Picked #11 in the Big Ten. 

Nebraska, 14-13 at half with OU.  35-8 in the second half for 49-21 final.

Here's a quick run down on key sacks.  Explosion plays are 10+ running and 20+ passing.

Mostly, you see the kind of thing you'd expect in a 49-21 game.  OU did not run effectively.  Their passing netted some yards on completed passes, but their overall completion percentage was poor.  They had 4.7 yards per play which is not great.

Meanwhile, the Huskers had big numbers.  Almost 6 per rush, 15 per completion, which is a lot and consistent with 56% completion. Overall, 7.1 is a good day's work.  They were 9/15 on 3rd/4th down and didn't turn the ball over.

The scary thing is the explosive plays.  Tarleton had 7.  Nebraska had 15 against OU for 325 yards, likely more than we will get in the entire game.  This is the advantage of the second--BG absolutely has to keep the lid on these big plays.  Handling the everyday plays will be tough enough.

Statistic	Ohio	Nebraska
Yards per rush	4.2	5.9
Yards per completion	11.7	15.3
Completion %	43.8%	56.3%
Yards per play	4.7	7.1
Third-down conversions	6/15 (40.0%)	9/15 (60.0%)
Red-zone efficiency	2/2 (100%)	4/4 (100%)
Turnovers	1	0
Explosive plays	6	15
Yards on explosive plays	144	325

NU's QB is a UNLV transfer.  As noted, a good day.  He threw 3 TDs and was sacked twice.  He is a solid run threat as well.

Of their 74 plays, 42 were runs, which is a lot more passing than NU would have had before Rhule arrived, particularly with a lead.

Their punting was decent, with no return game to speak of.  Did not attempt any field goals.

Owen Chambliss, the all-MWC LB who transferred from SD State, will be back after missing the OU game.

The only time Nebraska lost to a MAC team was in 2017, when they lost to NIU, who is no longer a MAC team.

BG has never played them before.

The Huskers are 28.5 point favorites.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (1-0)  We played them

Sep. 12 Nebraska (1-0) Beat OU 49-21

Sep. 19 Iowa State (1-0) Beat SE Mo 38-10

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (1-0) Beat FIU 19-9

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (0-1) Lost to Pitt 59-14

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-1) Lost to EMU, beat Mississippi Valley

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (0-1) Lost to the Bucks

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (1-0) Beat Albany

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (0-1)  WOW.

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (0-1) Lost 57-0 to South Carolina

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (0-1) Lost 30-20 to MSU

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (1-0).  No shit.  Beat Rutgers

MAC vs. FCS: 2-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-7

MAC vs G?: 0-2