Falcon MBB Gets Road Win in Opener

 BG's visit to Atlanta ended up with a victory.  As it always seems to, we ended up with some heart-wrenching minutes, but a win is a win, especially in an opener on the road.

The first half was competitive the entire way.  Seven minutes in, BG was down 1.   Key note...that's a minute after Christ Essandoko injured his ankle, not to return.  It shifted BG's rotation.  BG took the lead back with 9 to play and led by 4 with 8 to play (on an amazing dunk by Tristan Beckford, a Maple Leaf Special).

BG got the lead up to 5 with 5 minutes left, but then GSU rallied to tie the game.  The teams swapped baskets over the last two minutes, and then Josiah Shackleford stuck back on OREB to tie the game at the half.

BG bolted out to a 15-point lead on a 19-4 run with 14 to play.  With 8:57 minutes to play, BG had the lead up to 19... and a 98.7% chance of victory. (Which they did.)

Anyway, mark that.  From that point on, GSU outscored BG 27-11.  BG made one basket over that time...a nice Zach Howell baseline cut that Squire found.  BG missed six free throws in that span.  It was agonizing as the lead almost melted away.

It was agonizing within Agonizing.  With 1:21, BG was up 6.  Meyer was fouled and missed the second.  Beckford nailed the board, but they smartly fouled Beckford with 1:03 left and BG up 5.

Beckford adds a huge amount to our team.  He's unbelievably athletic, a great rebounder, and a finisher at the rim.  What he doesn't do is shoot....and that includes at the line.  Unless that improves, I don't see how he stays on the floor in late-game situations.  BG doesn't have an obvious replacement—no surprise there—and probably has to go small.

He missed both FTs. Meyer scored, and it was a 3-point lead with :46 to play.  Beckford is fouled...this time he split the pair to make it +4, and then the Panthers nailed a 3, and it was a 1-point lead with :18. GSU fouled Zack Howell, who hit both FTs to put BG up 3 with :13. BG fouled rather than allow a 3.  Meyer cut the lead to 1.  Shackleford hit 2 FTs, and BG was up 3, and the last shot missed.

In the end, BG ended up with 1.07 PPP, which is below the D1 average last year of 1.09.  They allowed 1.03, which is a solid defensive effort.  One thing I am going to track this year is scoring after live-ball turnovers.  BG had a decent night as did Georgia State.  I think you will see BG get up nearer to 2 in other games.  This just underscores the importance of live ball turnovers, especially when your half-court offense can struggle.  And you can see what happens with the rest of the possessions.

BG won three of the four categories.  BG made 56% from 2FG and 38% from 3FG, both really solid numbers, with 38% of their shots from 3FG.  GSU hit 38% from 2FG (not good) and 43% from 3FG with 55% of their shots from 3FG.

Slight turnover edge to GSU, but BG dominated on the offensive boards and getting to the line...the advantage was not as good as you might expect...BG was 14 of 26, and Georgia State was 6-12, so BG +8 at the line, including four down the stretch.

Individually....uh, Zach Howell.  DII transfer, first D1 game.  Scored 28, 4-4 on 2FG and 6-10 on 3FG, 2-2 at the line, and 8 rebounds.  This dude is someone we can use.  He reminds me of Jackson Paveltzke, reads as a gym rat, can shoot 3FG, and also has a mean back door cut.  

Shackleford (3-10 and 1-5, 3-4 at the line, 9 rebounds, 3 assists) and Leach (3-8, 0-1, 6 of 9 at the line) both had 12.  So did Tristan Beckord, who shot 5-5 from 2FG, 0-1 from 3FG, 2 of 9 at the line, 7 rebounds but 6 turnovers.  And four fouls.

Some other observations.  Preston Squire had 8 and 4 in 25 minutes, but did look like a different player and was +12.  Trey Simmons, a prolific scorer in DII, finished 0-2 shooting and -14 in 9 minutes.  Look for upside here. KJ Torbert played 1 minute. Cam Karel got minutes with Essandoko down, but was -10 in 10 minutes.

Jayden Johnson, Talan Staley, Goins and Atey DNP.

A win is a win.  Especially on the road. Next week, Cleveland State will head to the Stroh for the home opener.

Georgia State Up First for MBB

 Some quick notes:

• This is the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge. BG is 3-3 in the challenge, and Georgia State is 4-2.  The SBC has never lost the challenge, with 2 victories and 1 tie.
• They are the Panthers.
• BG beat Georgia State in their only meeting in 2008 at a tourney in Minnesota.  It was the first game of Orr's second season.
• Georgia State's new coach is Jon Cremins, the nephew of longtime coaching great Bobby Cremins.  It is his first D1 head coaching gig.
• He has 1 returning player, 11 transfers and 3 FR.
• They are picked 10th in the media poll and 13th (out of 14) in Blue Ribbon.
• Georgia State is a 3.5-point favorite.
• Jacob Meyer is their lead player.  He's 1st team all-SBC pre-season.  He is a UAB transfer, where he scored 12PPG on 41% (!!) shooting and 30 assists.
• Jaden Jackson transferred from South Dakota State.  He scored 12.3 PPG on 40% shooting and 81 assists.
• Eric Parnell transferred from Farleigh-Dickenson, and averaged 10.7 PPG.
• Their other projected starters are Jacon Fedson-Cole, who averaged 5.5 last year, and Mason Nichelson (6'10"), who came from Vanderbilt, where Cremins was an assistant.
• Others include AJ Smith, who was playing well at Temple before he got injured for the year.
• Terrance Dixon, Jr. transferred from Southern, where he scored 9 PPG.
• Georgia State has appeared in the NCAA Tourney 6 times since 1991. :(

Falcons Fall Again

 On the road for a family wedding, so probably won't get the full treatment today.  I did listen to the full game with Todd and John while we were on the road.  They do an outstanding job.  Gibby has really matured into a great analyst...he uses his knowledge as a football player to help understand what BG is doing right and wrong.

The upshot is that BG played the defending champs very well. They are a very good team, and we gave them a lot to handle.  The defense rebounded after last week and that kept BG in the game.

BG didn't win the game because after they scored on the first drive, they didn't get another TD.  There were 7 punts, a turnover, 4th down stops, whatever.

The offense was exposed because we just don't have the players.  Dendy was out, which doesn't help, but even so, the line is simply too young (coach called it "baptism under fire") and/or unable to block the run or protect the pass. Also, the line is down a key starter who gutted it out yesterday, but clearly was struggling. Katernick is the guy we need because he's good and feeling pressure and extending plays.  But as Gibby said "imagine what he could do it we blocked for him."  And we remain thin at WR..on a lot of those scrambles there was no one open.

So, if you're going to win that game, you have to be mistake-free. And that means not allowing an 82 yard TD run, not missing an easy FG, not grinding the way down the field to let the HB throw a pass, not throwing a key INT late in the game.  There are more...but...the simple idea is that parts of this team are not bad, but they are not good enough to carry the parts of the team that are bad.

We head into a 10-day break, which gives everyone a chance to talk to their agent.  (He says, kind of cynically).  The season is over.  At 2-7, there will be no bowl game.

How do the guys react?  I will say this.  I don't agree that our guys are dead.  They are playing hard in every game.  All of the losses except the P4 games were games we could have won. We didn't...but we have been competitive with everyone else.

I am as sure as I can be that Coach George will be back.  This year, year two, is not a year where you fire the coach, especially one who started late in year one. The team has not quit on him and I think we are close to being back.  Who stays, who comes in via the portal, those are key.  And I do think we can improve the coaching.  Some run/pass flexibility is important until the line can support the cloud of dust offense. There are some bizarre play calls.  Coach expressed confidence in Coach Nosal as a line coach...I think it's hard to call plays for a team that can't block.

It hasn't been a terrible season, not like a couple years ago when we were getting destroyed every week.  Let's beat Kent and then head to the Glass Bowl.

Happy Halloween to the Falcon Nation

 

MBB Preview

 As the leaves fall, as it gets dark earlier, it becomes basketball season...and BG sports pick up an additional rider.  As you know, I follow MBB on this blog, so let's take a look.

The overall idea is that you build teams today, not programs.  BG has only six newcomers this year, joining six holdover players.  The Falcons were picked 7th in the MAC poll, 9th by Blue Ribbon, and 12th by Kenpom.

Not to worry.  Here is what Blue Ribbon said about last year's team:

Bowling Green climbed 145 spots in the KenPom rankings and 130 spots in the NET last year. The Falcons wound up fourth among MAC schools in KenPom (144) and fifth in the NET (159).

So let's look at this year's team.

The team has played one exhibition game—a close loss at WKU.  Using the player rotations from that game as a clue to how things will start, here we go.

Starters

Christ Essandoko...has played at St. Joe's, Providence and South Carolina.  Played 18 minutes.  Simon called him a perimeter five and says he can shoot it.  He's 7'1" and 290.

Tristan Beckford...6'7".  Simon says as good an athlete as there is in the MAC. Was a big star for the Canadian junior team but didn't play much for UCF.  27 minutes, 10/10 in the WKU game.

Josiah Shackleford--our best returning player.  Played 30 minutes, 16 points. 

Juan Cranford--from EKU, big shooter, made 36% from 3FG there.  Played 17 minutes at WKU, 0-3 from 3FG.

Jayden Johnson, 6'1" G from SC State.  13.4 PPG and 37% 3FG shooting there.  Played 16 minutes.

Substitues:

Preston Squire, returnee.  I think this will be a surprise for Falcon fans.  A pleasant one. Squire has sat the bench for two years with injuries.  He was highly touted out of JUCO, where he was going to be the new Spurgin.  Jason, right.  Coach said he's healthy, down to 240, 10% body fat, and ready to be a problem at perimeter five. "He has looked really, really good," said Simon.  22 minutes, 8 points and 11 rebounds.

Camden Karel, returnee.  Big-time HS player in Michigan, did play last year.  He's 6'9" and played 10 minutes with 2 blocks.  Squire's emergence could cut his playing time.

Makhi Leach, returnee, guard.  Didn't start but played 22 minutes.  I think he has a shot to start at the point and surely is in the mix.

Trey Simmons is the 24-point scorer from Frostburg State.  Didn't practice this summer due to rolled ankles, played 14 minutes.  

KJ Torbert--FR G, Michigan's Mr. Basketball.  He played 20 minutes, scored 12 points on 5 of 8 shooting overall.  Tremendous upside here.

Leek Atney--Fr. He's 6'11" and a 9'3" reach.  He played 2 minutes.  Did not get to BG until August.

On Roster, DNP, No idea why.

Zach Howell, 6'5" F/G from Drury. Averaged 18 PPG.

Talen Staley, Fr. G from SC.

Aiden Goins...returnee.  Load on the inside.  Had a few moments last year.

BG usually starts with a bunch of guys who look like they can contribute and then Hunger-Games the roster down to 7-8 in the rotation.

------------------

So here's the thing.  Coach Simon got here talking about scoring and shooting the 3FG.  His recruiting has followed that trend. Yet, BG has been 7th, 10th and 5th the last 3 years in offensive efficiency. And 6th, 8th, and 10th from 3FG.  Guys with stellar 3FG shooting records come into the Stroh and suddenly are average or worse.

Same is true this year.  New guys are almost all scorers and 3FG shooters.  We will see.  They were 6-25 in the exhibition.

BG has played good defense.  Their mystery match-up web zone does seem to throw teams off.  The Falcons were 2nd last year in defensive efficiency in the MAC.

They were also #2 in defensive rebounding, which is key.  BG wants to run the ball, and to do that, you need rebounds.  We were middle of the pack in forcing turnovers.

Lastly, about the MAC. While NIL seems to be gutting football, it appears to be a blessing for MBB.  MAC is the #12 ranked conference this year. That's the highest since 2021, when it was a typical ranking. When Simon got here, we were #24, and it was #23 the year after that.  When Simon got here, the MAC had 7 teams under 200 on kenpom.  This year are are 2. (BG is #200).

That's especially relevant this season, when the MAC goes to a true round-robin.  Now, 22 games will be MAC games, starting in early December.  I think this is a good move...we are replacing NAIA and little-known D1 teams with meaningful games in our conference.  Also, given the scheduling issues, it is probably the only available move.

Teams will be under pressure to put things together quick, especially with all the turnover.  But there's also plenty of time to turn things around.

Also, we're back to double byes in the MAC tourney after UMass ruined everything by beating Miami.  The regular season matters more now due to the byes.  But, nothing matters more than 3 wins at the Rocket.

No one expects this to be BG's year.  I do like Coach Simon and I think he's the right guy to coach us in this world.  I don't suspect we will ever look that good on paper.  But that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Next Up: The defending champs

Next up is a real test.  WMU is the defending MAC Champion,   They were 10-4 last year and are in that one-loss logjam at the top of the standings.  Of course, we all know the story with the Michigan game. They beat Monmouth and Rice, and then a big G6 showdown with Boise State in Kzoo, which they lost 32-7. They beat UB, Kent and CMU before falling just short at UT last weekend.

BG has won 4 of the last 6 against WMU.  In fact, Taylor has never beaten Bowling Green. This is the first game in which Coach George has faced the Broncos. BG won the last meeting 31-13.

The Broncos have one of the better funded programs in the MAC. You can tell because MAC OPOY Broc Lowry and RB Jalen Buckley (two-time All-MAC, MAC FR of year) keep coming back.

They are tough to beat at home...despite having some real down periods, they have won 62% of their home games at Waldo.

MAC Stats: MAC Only.

• Buckley is #4 in rushing yards and #8 in yards per carry.  He has 73 carries, one of 5 high-load backs in the conference.
• Lowry is #3 in passing efficiency and #20 in rushing yards. 
• Aveion Chenault is #9 in yards per game receiving.
• Josh Franklin is #2 in KOR, and has scored.
• They have the #2 punter in the MAC (Ryan Millmore).

So a few thoughts.

• WMU is the #2 rushing defense in the MAC.  It would be a huge surprise if this was the game when BG started to regularly establish the run.
• On the other hand, BG leads the MAC in passing efficiency and WMU is #9 in passing defense.  This would seem like an opportunity, but in fairness, we didn't generate those numbers in a pass-first offense.
• If they do, they are facing a WMU team that leads the MAC in sacks.  Blocking will be key.
• WMU runs a lot....63% of total plays.  They are OK on yards per rush (#3), but also have volume to work with.  BG is #8 in rushing defense.  It's going to be key for us to win these battles for 60 minutes.  Against a similar offense, we did OK for a while with UB but eventually wore down.  Also, Lowry is probably the best running QB we have faced in MAC play.

WMU is a 12.5-14 point favorite.  That seems right, but games like this turn every day.  It will start on defense.

Answering Coach's Challenge

Coach made a challenge today...he challenged someone (in the media) to compare BG last year after four MAC games to this year.  I jumped right on that.  And he was right...we are improved over last year.  The orange-shaded sections are improvements over last year...the unshaded are neutral or got worse.

There is no doubt.  This team has made incremental progress.  Four games into 2026, we are 2-2 in the MAC.  We are #2 in scoring, #5 in yards per play. We are #10 in yards per carry and #1 (really!) in passing efficiency.  We are #8 in scoring defense, #7 in yards per play. #9 in yards per carry allowed and #7 in pass efficiency defense.

So, we are better.  We are a top-five offensive team and solidly middle-of-the-pack on defense.  Over many years, all those close losses combined with steadily improving numbers would have told us that we were making progress.

My question is this: what is the role of continuity in today's football?  How do you account for steady improvement when you might lose 50 guys every year?  We lost a ton of guys when Loeffler left and we remain, you know, middle of the pack.

About that.  First, Coach said today that we couldn't run last year because of how bad the passing was.  In fact, the passing is much better, but the running is actually worse.  And, we really hadn't seen Dendy take over yet last year at this time.  This isn't a big surprise.  We have a fully new line this year and I believe inflated hopes to run the ball.

Now, can we keep the line?  Keep the RB stocked?  We shall see.  We have 34 HS FR from this fall, almost none of whom have played.

Note that the team remains relatively healthy.  One recent injury was to James Thomas on the OL, which brought Caden Campbell in to play important snaps for the first time.

Coach said something about consistency today.  I'd just make a point here that I think that is the key...along with depth.  It isn't that the defense didn't win their share of battles against Messiah Burch.  Without the 73-yard TD, he averaged 3.5 yards per carry.  The problem is, we didn't win enough.  And football is the kind of sport where you let that guy loose once, it can cost you a game. And, those first half stops took a toll on us physically, and we don't have the depth to rotate guys and stay effective.

The offense was the same.  There were good moments, and then there were three terrible drives in the second half and a terrible two-minute drive.

Bowling Green Football: First Four MAC Games, 2025 vs. 2026

2025: Ohio, Toledo, Central Michigan, Kent State. Delta = 2026 minus 2025. Light orange = improvement. Unshaded values are neutral, unchanged, declined or unavailable.

Bowling Green — Offense & Team Statistics

Statistic	2025	2026	Delta
Scoring
Points scored	75	117	+42
Points per game	18.75	29.25	+10.50
First downs
Total	67	79	+12
Rushing	30	27	−3
Passing	30	38	+8
By penalty	7	14	+7
Rushing
Attempts	158	135	−23
Net yards	605	502	−103
Yards per rush	3.83	3.72	−0.11
Yards per game	151.25	125.50	−25.75
Yards gained	753	562	−191
Yards lost	148	60	−88
Rushing TDs	4	5	+1
Passing
Attempts	99	105	+6
Completions	60	74	+14
Completion %	60.6%	70.5%	+9.9 pp
Net yards	660	874	+214
Yards per game	165.00	218.50	+53.50
Yards per attempt	6.67	8.32	+1.66
Yards per completion	11.00	11.81	+0.81
Passing TDs	5	8	+3
Interceptions thrown	6	4	−2
Total offense
Total yards	1,265	1,376	+111
Offensive plays	257	240	−17
Yards per play	4.92	5.73	+0.81
Yards per game	316.25	344.00	+27.75
Conversions
Third down	24/58	24/48	—
Third-down %	41.4%	50.0%	+8.6 pp
Fourth down	1/7	1/2	—
Fourth-down %	14.3%	50.0%	+35.7 pp
Red zone
Scores/trips	9/9	12/14	—
Scoring %	100.0%	85.7%	−14.3 pp
Touchdowns	6	9	+3
TDs per trip	66.7%	64.3%	−2.4 pp
Turnovers
Fumbles–lost	4–1	3–0	—
Interceptions thrown	6	4	−2
Total turnovers lost	7	4	−3
Special teams
Punts	20	13	−7
Punt yards	781	473	−308
Gross yards per punt	39.05	36.38	−2.67
Net yards per punt	37.31	34.31	−3.00
Punt returns–yards	9–35	2–7	—
Yards per punt return	3.89	3.50	−0.39
Kickoff returns–yards	13–297	6–134	—
Yards per kickoff return	22.85	22.33	−0.51
Field goals	4/5	4/5	—
Field-goal %	80.0%	80.0%	0.0 pp
PAT kicks	9/9	15/15	—
Penalties and other
Penalties	34	16	−18
Penalty yards	296	166	−130
Penalty yards per game	74.00	41.50	−32.50
Sacks allowed	10	10	0
Sack yards lost	80	67	−13
Average possession time	30:29	31:00	+0:31
Points off turnovers	7	Not reported	—

Opponents — BG Defense & Special Teams

Statistic	2025	2026	Delta
Scoring
Points allowed	109	93	−16
Points per game	27.25	23.25	−4.00
First downs
Total	75	77	+2
Rushing	37	34	−3
Passing	30	34	+4
By penalty	8	9	+1
Rushing
Attempts	156	153	−3
Net yards	721	669	−52
Yards per rush	4.62	4.37	−0.25
Yards per game	180.25	167.25	−13.00
Yards gained	806	786	−20
Yards lost	85	117	+32
Rushing TDs	8	6	−2
Passing
Attempts	83	97	+14
Completions	53	59	+6
Completion %	63.9%	60.8%	−3.0 pp
Net yards	717	665	−52
Yards per game	179.25	166.25	−13.00
Yards per attempt	8.64	6.86	−1.78
Yards per completion	13.53	11.27	−2.26
Passing TDs	5	4	−1
Interceptions thrown	2	0	−2
Total offense
Total yards	1,438	1,334	−104
Offensive plays	239	250	+11
Yards per play	6.02	5.34	−0.68
Yards per game	359.50	333.50	−26.00
Conversions
Third down	16/47	19/52	—
Third-down %	34.0%	36.5%	+2.5 pp
Fourth down	3/6	6/9	—
Fourth-down %	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7 pp
Red zone
Scores/trips	11/12	12/12	—
Scoring %	91.7%	100.0%	+8.3 pp
Touchdowns	9	7	−2
TDs per trip	75.0%	58.3%	−16.7 pp
Turnovers
Fumbles–lost	6–3	3–3	—
Interceptions thrown	2	0	−2
Total turnovers lost	5	3	−2
Special teams
Punts	21	15	−6
Punt yards	813	647	−166
Gross yards per punt	38.71	43.13	+4.42
Net yards per punt	35.60	38.67	+3.07
Punt returns–yards	3–20	3–27	—
Yards per punt return	6.67	9.00	+2.33
Kickoff returns–yards	7–104	8–105	—
Yards per kickoff return	14.86	13.13	−1.73
Field goals	3/4	7/9	—
Field-goal %	75.0%	77.8%	+2.8 pp
PAT kicks	14/14	8/8	—
Penalties and other
Penalties	33	25	−8
Penalty yards	268	245	−23
Penalty yards per game	67.00	61.25	−5.75
Sacks by BG defense	5	8	+3
Yards lost on BG sacks	30	36	+6
Average possession time	28:57	29:00	+0:03
Points off turnovers	14	Not reported	—

Source: Four 2025 MAC game books and the 2026 four-game conference team-statistics summary. Neutral raw counts are not automatically considered improvements.