MBB Preview

 As the leaves fall, as it gets dark earlier, it becomes basketball season...and BG sports pick up an additional rider.  As you know, I follow MBB on this blog, so let's take a look.

The overall idea is that you build teams today, not programs.  BG has only six newcomers this year, joining six holdover players.  The Falcons were picked 7th in the MAC poll, 9th by Blue Ribbon, and 12th by Kenpom.

Not to worry.  Here is what Blue Ribbon said about last year's team:

Bowling Green climbed 145 spots in the KenPom rankings and 130 spots in the NET last year. The Falcons wound up fourth among MAC schools in KenPom (144) and fifth in the NET (159).

So let's look at this year's team.

The team has played one exhibition game—a close loss at WKU.  Using the player rotations from that game as a clue to how things will start, here we go.

Starters

Christ Essandoko...has played at St. Joe's, Providence and South Carolina.  Played 18 minutes.  Simon called him a perimeter five and says he can shoot it.  He's 7'1" and 290.

Tristan Beckford...6'7".  Simon says as good an athlete as there is in the MAC. Was a big star for the Canadian junior team but didn't play much for UCF.  27 minutes, 10/10 in the WKU game.

Josiah Shackleford--our best returning player.  Played 30 minutes, 16 points. 

Juan Cranford--from EKU, big shooter, made 36% from 3FG there.  Played 17 minutes at WKU, 0-3 from 3FG.

Jayden Johnson, 6'1" G from SC State.  13.4 PPG and 37% 3FG shooting there.  Played 16 minutes.

Substitues:

Preston Squire, returnee.  I think this will be a surprise for Falcon fans.  A pleasant one. Squire has sat the bench for two years with injuries.  He was highly touted out of JUCO, where he was going to be the new Spurgin.  Jason, right.  Coach said he's healthy, down to 240, 10% body fat, and ready to be a problem at perimeter five. "He has looked really, really good," said Simon.  22 minutes, 8 points and 11 rebounds.

Camden Karel, returnee.  Big-time HS player in Michigan, did play last year.  He's 6'9" and played 10 minutes with 2 blocks.  Squire's emergence could cut his playing time.

Makhi Leach, returnee, guard.  Didn't start but played 22 minutes.  I think he has a shot to start at the point and surely is in the mix.

Trey Simmons is the 24-point scorer from Frostburg State.  Didn't practice this summer due to rolled ankles, played 14 minutes.  

KJ Torbert--FR G, Michigan's Mr. Basketball.  He played 20 minutes, scored 12 points on 5 of 8 shooting overall.  Tremendous upside here.

Leek Atney--Fr. He's 6'11" and a 9'3" reach.  He played 2 minutes.  Did not get to BG until August.

On Roster, DNP, No idea why.

Zach Howell, 6'5" F/G from Drury. Averaged 18 PPG.

Talen Staley, Fr. G from SC.

Aiden Goins...returnee.  Load on the inside.  Had a few moments last year.

BG usually starts with a bunch of guys who look like they can contribute and then Hunger-Games the roster down to 7-8 in the rotation.

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So here's the thing.  Coach Simon got here talking about scoring and shooting the 3FG.  His recruiting has followed that trend. Yet, BG has been 7th, 10th and 5th the last 3 years in offensive efficiency. And 6th, 8th, and 10th from 3FG.  Guys with stellar 3FG shooting records come into the Stroh and suddenly are average or worse.

Same is true this year.  New guys are almost all scorers and 3FG shooters.  We will see.  They were 6-25 in the exhibition.

BG has played good defense.  Their mystery match-up web zone does seem to throw teams off.  The Falcons were 2nd last year in defensive efficiency in the MAC.

They were also #2 in defensive rebounding, which is key.  BG wants to run the ball, and to do that, you need rebounds.  We were middle of the pack in forcing turnovers.

Lastly, about the MAC. While NIL seems to be gutting football, it appears to be a blessing for MBB.  MAC is the #12 ranked conference this year. That's the highest since 2021, when it was a typical ranking. When Simon got here, we were #24, and it was #23 the year after that.  When Simon got here, the MAC had 7 teams under 200 on kenpom.  This year are are 2. (BG is #200).

That's especially relevant this season, when the MAC goes to a true round-robin.  Now, 22 games will be MAC games, starting in early December.  I think this is a good move...we are replacing NAIA and little-known D1 teams with meaningful games in our conference.  Also, given the scheduling issues, it is probably the only available move.

Teams will be under pressure to put things together quick, especially with all the turnover.  But there's also plenty of time to turn things around.

Also, we're back to double byes in the MAC tourney after UMass ruined everything by beating Miami.  The regular season matters more now due to the byes.  But, nothing matters more than 3 wins at the Rocket.

No one expects this to be BG's year.  I do like Coach Simon and I think he's the right guy to coach us in this world.  I don't suspect we will ever look that good on paper.  But that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Next Up: The defending champs

Next up is a real test.  WMU is the defending MAC Champion,   They were 10-4 last year and are in that one-loss logjam at the top of the standings.  Of course, we all know the story with the Michigan game. They beat Monmouth and Rice, and then a big G6 showdown with Boise State in Kzoo, which they lost 32-7. They beat UB, Kent and CMU before falling just short at UT last weekend.

BG has won 4 of the last 6 against WMU.  In fact, Taylor has never beaten Bowling Green. This is the first game in which Coach George has faced the Broncos. BG won the last meeting 31-13.

The Broncos have one of the better funded programs in the MAC. You can tell because MAC OPOY Broc Lowry and RB Jalen Buckley (two-time All-MAC, MAC FR of year) keep coming back.

They are tough to beat at home...despite having some real down periods, they have won 62% of their home games at Waldo.

MAC Stats: MAC Only.

• Buckley is #4 in rushing yards and #8 in yards per carry.  He has 73 carries, one of 5 high-load backs in the conference.
• Lowry is #3 in passing efficiency and #20 in rushing yards. 
• Aveion Chenault is #9 in yards per game receiving.
• Josh Franklin is #2 in KOR, and has scored.
• They have the #2 punter in the MAC (Ryan Millmore).

So a few thoughts.

• WMU is the #2 rushing defense in the MAC.  It would be a huge surprise if this was the game when BG started to regularly establish the run.
• On the other hand, BG leads the MAC in passing efficiency and WMU is #9 in passing defense.  This would seem like an opportunity, but in fairness, we didn't generate those numbers in a pass-first offense.
• If they do, they are facing a WMU team that leads the MAC in sacks.  Blocking will be key.
• WMU runs a lot....63% of total plays.  They are OK on yards per rush (#3), but also have volume to work with.  BG is #8 in rushing defense.  It's going to be key for us to win these battles for 60 minutes.  Against a similar offense, we did OK for a while with UB but eventually wore down.  Also, Lowry is probably the best running QB we have faced in MAC play.

WMU is a 12.5-14 point favorite.  That seems right, but games like this turn every day.  It will start on defense.

Answering Coach's Challenge

Coach made a challenge today...he challenged someone (in the media) to compare BG last year after four MAC games to this year.  I jumped right on that.  And he was right...we are improved over last year.  The orange-shaded sections are improvements over last year...the unshaded are neutral or got worse.

There is no doubt.  This team has made incremental progress.  Four games into 2026, we are 2-2 in the MAC.  We are #2 in scoring, #5 in yards per play. We are #10 in yards per carry and #1 (really!) in passing efficiency.  We are #8 in scoring defense, #7 in yards per play. #9 in yards per carry allowed and #7 in pass efficiency defense.

So, we are better.  We are a top-five offensive team and solidly middle-of-the-pack on defense.  Over many years, all those close losses combined with steadily improving numbers would have told us that we were making progress.

My question is this: what is the role of continuity in today's football?  How do you account for steady improvement when you might lose 50 guys every year?  We lost a ton of guys when Loeffler left and we remain, you know, middle of the pack.

About that.  First, Coach said today that we couldn't run last year because of how bad the passing was.  In fact, the passing is much better, but the running is actually worse.  And, we really hadn't seen Dendy take over yet last year at this time.  This isn't a big surprise.  We have a fully new line this year and I believe inflated hopes to run the ball.

Now, can we keep the line?  Keep the RB stocked?  We shall see.  We have 34 HS FR from this fall, almost none of whom have played.

Note that the team remains relatively healthy.  One recent injury was to James Thomas on the OL, which brought Caden Campbell in to play important snaps for the first time.

Coach said something about consistency today.  I'd just make a point here that I think that is the key...along with depth.  It isn't that the defense didn't win their share of battles against Messiah Burch.  Without the 73-yard TD, he averaged 3.5 yards per carry.  The problem is, we didn't win enough.  And football is the kind of sport where you let that guy loose once, it can cost you a game. And, those first half stops took a toll on us physically, and we don't have the depth to rotate guys and stay effective.

The offense was the same.  There were good moments, and then there were three terrible drives in the second half and a terrible two-minute drive.

Bowling Green Football: First Four MAC Games, 2025 vs. 2026

2025: Ohio, Toledo, Central Michigan, Kent State. Delta = 2026 minus 2025. Light orange = improvement. Unshaded values are neutral, unchanged, declined or unavailable.

Bowling Green — Offense & Team Statistics

Statistic	2025	2026	Delta
Scoring
Points scored	75	117	+42
Points per game	18.75	29.25	+10.50
First downs
Total	67	79	+12
Rushing	30	27	−3
Passing	30	38	+8
By penalty	7	14	+7
Rushing
Attempts	158	135	−23
Net yards	605	502	−103
Yards per rush	3.83	3.72	−0.11
Yards per game	151.25	125.50	−25.75
Yards gained	753	562	−191
Yards lost	148	60	−88
Rushing TDs	4	5	+1
Passing
Attempts	99	105	+6
Completions	60	74	+14
Completion %	60.6%	70.5%	+9.9 pp
Net yards	660	874	+214
Yards per game	165.00	218.50	+53.50
Yards per attempt	6.67	8.32	+1.66
Yards per completion	11.00	11.81	+0.81
Passing TDs	5	8	+3
Interceptions thrown	6	4	−2
Total offense
Total yards	1,265	1,376	+111
Offensive plays	257	240	−17
Yards per play	4.92	5.73	+0.81
Yards per game	316.25	344.00	+27.75
Conversions
Third down	24/58	24/48	—
Third-down %	41.4%	50.0%	+8.6 pp
Fourth down	1/7	1/2	—
Fourth-down %	14.3%	50.0%	+35.7 pp
Red zone
Scores/trips	9/9	12/14	—
Scoring %	100.0%	85.7%	−14.3 pp
Touchdowns	6	9	+3
TDs per trip	66.7%	64.3%	−2.4 pp
Turnovers
Fumbles–lost	4–1	3–0	—
Interceptions thrown	6	4	−2
Total turnovers lost	7	4	−3
Special teams
Punts	20	13	−7
Punt yards	781	473	−308
Gross yards per punt	39.05	36.38	−2.67
Net yards per punt	37.31	34.31	−3.00
Punt returns–yards	9–35	2–7	—
Yards per punt return	3.89	3.50	−0.39
Kickoff returns–yards	13–297	6–134	—
Yards per kickoff return	22.85	22.33	−0.51
Field goals	4/5	4/5	—
Field-goal %	80.0%	80.0%	0.0 pp
PAT kicks	9/9	15/15	—
Penalties and other
Penalties	34	16	−18
Penalty yards	296	166	−130
Penalty yards per game	74.00	41.50	−32.50
Sacks allowed	10	10	0
Sack yards lost	80	67	−13
Average possession time	30:29	31:00	+0:31
Points off turnovers	7	Not reported	—

Opponents — BG Defense & Special Teams

Statistic	2025	2026	Delta
Scoring
Points allowed	109	93	−16
Points per game	27.25	23.25	−4.00
First downs
Total	75	77	+2
Rushing	37	34	−3
Passing	30	34	+4
By penalty	8	9	+1
Rushing
Attempts	156	153	−3
Net yards	721	669	−52
Yards per rush	4.62	4.37	−0.25
Yards per game	180.25	167.25	−13.00
Yards gained	806	786	−20
Yards lost	85	117	+32
Rushing TDs	8	6	−2
Passing
Attempts	83	97	+14
Completions	53	59	+6
Completion %	63.9%	60.8%	−3.0 pp
Net yards	717	665	−52
Yards per game	179.25	166.25	−13.00
Yards per attempt	8.64	6.86	−1.78
Yards per completion	13.53	11.27	−2.26
Passing TDs	5	4	−1
Interceptions thrown	2	0	−2
Total offense
Total yards	1,438	1,334	−104
Offensive plays	239	250	+11
Yards per play	6.02	5.34	−0.68
Yards per game	359.50	333.50	−26.00
Conversions
Third down	16/47	19/52	—
Third-down %	34.0%	36.5%	+2.5 pp
Fourth down	3/6	6/9	—
Fourth-down %	50.0%	66.7%	+16.7 pp
Red zone
Scores/trips	11/12	12/12	—
Scoring %	91.7%	100.0%	+8.3 pp
Touchdowns	9	7	−2
TDs per trip	75.0%	58.3%	−16.7 pp
Turnovers
Fumbles–lost	6–3	3–3	—
Interceptions thrown	2	0	−2
Total turnovers lost	5	3	−2
Special teams
Punts	21	15	−6
Punt yards	813	647	−166
Gross yards per punt	38.71	43.13	+4.42
Net yards per punt	35.60	38.67	+3.07
Punt returns–yards	3–20	3–27	—
Yards per punt return	6.67	9.00	+2.33
Kickoff returns–yards	7–104	8–105	—
Yards per kickoff return	14.86	13.13	−1.73
Field goals	3/4	7/9	—
Field-goal %	75.0%	77.8%	+2.8 pp
PAT kicks	14/14	8/8	—
Penalties and other
Penalties	33	25	−8
Penalty yards	268	245	−23
Penalty yards per game	67.00	61.25	−5.75
Sacks by BG defense	5	8	+3
Yards lost on BG sacks	30	36	+6
Average possession time	28:57	29:00	+0:03
Points off turnovers	14	Not reported	—

Source: Four 2025 MAC game books and the 2026 four-game conference team-statistics summary. Neutral raw counts are not automatically considered improvements.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (8-0)  Beat West Georgia #1 in FCS

Sep. 12 Nebraska (5-2) Idle

Sep. 19 Iowa State (3-4) Smoked by Arizona

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (5-2) Idle

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (5-3) scored in last 2 minutes to beat CMU

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-7)   Lost to Ball State.  First eliminated MAC team

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (3-5) Beat Sacramento State

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (5-3) They beat us

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (5-3*) Lost to UT

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (3-5) Wagon Wheel Secured!

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (6-2) Beat WMU

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-4).  Lost to UConn

MAC title race is typically hot.  Halfway through (mostly), OU is 4-0, and UT, WMU, UB, and Miami are 3-1.

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-17

MAC vs G?: 6-11

BG Still Not Good Enough, loses to UB

Watching a UB back shred a BG defense felt unpleasantly familiar.  This time it was Messiah Burch, who went for 184.  Other times it was Patterson for 298, Patterson for 301, McDuffie for 166 and Washington for 155....players are different--on both sides of the ball--but the pattern mysteriously continues.

This was a typical 2026 BG game: close enough to make us think we're not that far away and forget we are 2-6 and 2-2.  And, it ended with BG running down the field to catch up in a maddeningly bizarre 2-minute drill....and failing.  (We have had some good ones....but this was incompetent.)  And there were times when the offense drove the ball Woody Hayes-style and looked good, then moments when they looked completely lost.

The first half went really well.  BG had forced UB to punt 3 times, and scored twice, once on a 9-minute drive.  With 2 left, BG was up 14-7 and I tweeted the following.

28 minutes in, this is as well as BG has played on both sides of the ball this season.

— BGFalconBlog (@BGFalconBlog) October 24, 2026

I knew better.  I did.  But I really felt we were playing well, in a style we wanted, and in a way we could replicate.

 And then...Off a 29-yard Kingston punt, UB drove 63 yards on 9 plays.  The key play, as I was taught at BGSU, was foreshadowing.  BG had been containing Wright with a disciplined pass rush, but it broke down, and he ran for 39 yards to the BG 14.  They scored a couple of plays later on 3rd and 10, their second 3rd-down conversion of the drive, and it was tied heading into the half.

BG had the ball and went 3-and-out.  But they had one last chance to control the game when Myles Bradley forced a sack, Eriq George recovered the fumble, and BG had the ball on the UB 30 and scored three plays later, hitting Amarchee on the same play Kastantin overthrew last week.  Wide open again.  BG led 21-14.

Everything else from here is no good.

UB drove 75 yards in 6 plays.  Not one third down on the drive. Overall, 2:02. Burch with 39 yards on the drive and the score.  21-21,

Hey, it's still tied!  BG comes out, gives up 14 yards over 1st and 2nd down sacks, and Kingston nails a 47-yard punt to put them at their own 37.  They went on a long drive, 12 plays, 10 of them runs.  Yet, they converted a 3rd and 2 with a pass.  Finally, it was 2nd and 4 on the 11, and George took Messiah down for a 2-yard loss.  Wright was incomplete on 3rd down, and UB kicked a FG.  24-21.  Could have been worse.

BG had a chance to get back, but went 3-and-out.  And then Burch took it 73 yards to the house to make it 31-21.

BG gets the ball with 12 left in the game.  Need a score. Instead, on 3rd down, Kastantin throws an inexplicable INT into four defenders. They start on our 38.  Defense gets the stop, and BG is kept alive when UB's probable all-MAC K missed a 47-yarder.

Give JK credit.  He rallies.  He moved us down the field, a 23rd yarder to Jacon-Duffy and a 21-yarder to Kemp.   BG has it 3rd and 2 on the UB 8--obviously, a TD is key here--but the FB dive only gets 1 yard and BG hit a FG to make it 31-24.  At least it's one score.

UB gets the ball with 3:33 left.  Obviously, they think they can run the clock out.  They convert a 3rd and 7 (that hurts) with 3:07 left and then end up 4th and 1 at our 37.  They go for it, Wright tries to go up the middle, and George and Hines hit him for a loss, and BG had a last life, but with 1:02 to play.

The rest is best forgotten.  Kastantin scrambled up the middle twice for 7 yards that ate up :41. I almost felt it was like a basketball team encouraging the ball to be thrown into the corner.  He runs up the middle against 7-8 men dropping; how bad can it be?  BG did convert the first down, and then it was 1st and 10 from the UB 42, and BG threw the next pass 3 yards and in-bounds, and the game ended.

That was bad.

BG had periods where they ran the ball well, but you can see that UB had a significant edge. BG was clearly better in the pass game, but UB had probably their best pass game of the year. BG lost the turnover and explosive play battle, and UB's special teams were stronger than BG's, as expected.

Why do we alternate kickoff guys?

Red zone and 3rd-down conversions were a wash.  UB made some big ones, to be sure.

There were no real individual standouts for BG on offense.  Pringle, Pascal, and George had big games individually on defense.

Bowling Green vs. Buffalo

October 24, 2026 | Final: Buffalo 31, Bowling Green 24

Statistic	Bowling Green	Buffalo
Yards per rush	3.44	6.12
Yards per completion	11.42	9.77
Completion percentage	70.4%	61.9%
Yards per play	5.41	6.10
Third-down conversions	8/15 (53.3%)	8/15 (53.3%)
Red-zone points per trip	5.67	6.00
Turnovers	2	1
Explosive plays	5	8
Explosive-play yards	124	221
Special Teams Index	0	+3
Penalties (number-yards)	2-17	0-0

Explosive plays: rushes of 10+ yards and completed passes of 20+ yards. Special Teams Index uses the BG Football zero-based scoring system.

So, we are playing out the string.  I think I had us 4-8, and that is possible

UB Preview

The beat goes on....two teams will play in Buffalo Saturday with one loss each in MAC play.  The loser will go from slim chances at the MAC title to none.  The other will stay alive, on paper.

Pete Lembo is coaching the Bulls.  He's our old friend from Ball State back in the Clawson era.  He's a solid coach, went 9-4 in his first year in Buffalo, and then 5-7 last year and 4-3/2-1 thus far this season. 

They won a close one in the FCS game, lost @FIU and @Penn State, won a close one over Robert Morris, lost by 3 to WMU, shocked Toledo, and then beat UMass in OT.  They have had 4 games come down to 3 points.

UB has won 6 of the last 8 in the series.  Leipold delivered 3 straight blowouts, Linguist had a blow out and BG lost 28-3 last year.  As for that one, it wasn't pretty.  BG didn't score until the last quarter.  Drew Pyne made his last appearance in a Falcon uniform, and Najm finished the game. BG managed only 216 yards in that one.

MAC Leaders:

• Chance Morrow is the #2 WR with 37 receptions #3 in yards, #1 in TD (6) at 11.9 per reception, which is nothing huge.
• Phillip Folmar is #4 in KOR (24.7) and Miles Greer is #8 in punt returns (7.6).
• Ethan Stumpf is #2 in punting.  He has 44 punts and 12 of them are over 50.
• Oliver Hautanean is #1 in FGs, 12 of 15 with a long of 52.
• SaVeon Brown is #4 in tackles.
• And, finally, their RB.  Messiah Burch is an actual Bell Bull.  He has 118 carries, #2 in the conference.  He has 5.6 ypc, which is #5 among backs with high attempt numbers.  He leads with 661 yards.

Which leads us to the preview:

So, some keys.  

UB has lost 7 fumbles. At -4, it's unusual to have a good record as they do.

BG's defense is at the bottom of the MAC.  Now, we've been gashed by some P4 teams and showed some ability to get stops against G6 and MAC teams.  And then we got pushed around by Ball State last week.  UB runs the ball a lot--more than we do.  And they have a lead back who is very effective and used to work.  Which team shows up for BG might decide it.

BG's offense is pretty anemic. UB is not great defensively.  They can be run against.  BG needs to establish the run to get the offense going, if for no other reason than we are not going to give up on running either way.

QB play could be key.  UB's QB1 is out for the season and QB2 has not been great.  If BG can control the line, it will make it tough.

UB's special teams are good, so BG has to hold their own there.

UB is a 3.5 point favorite, which is essentially home field.  Last week was a disappointment, and this week is harder.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (7-0)  Beat Central Arkansas.  #2 FCS team

Sep. 12 Nebraska (5-2) Lost to Oregon

Sep. 19 Iowa State (3-3) Idle

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (5-2) Beat Kent 29-2

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (4-3) Beat Akron

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-6)   Lost to OU, chartered them home

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (2-5) Ugh

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (4-3) beat UMass in OT

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (5-2*) Beat CMU

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-5) Lost to USF

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (5-2) Beat EMU

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-3).  Lost to UB

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-17

MAC vs G?: 6-10