KS Preview (MBB)

BG has a tough week when they need it the least.  On paper, it will be difficult to win one, but if BG did, it would be huge.  On that front, BG would be most likely to win at home over Kent tomorrow.

The first meeting between BG and KSU could not have gone worse for the Falcons. They trailed by 18 at the half, were never closer than 15 in the second half and trailed by as much as 25.  BG could not make a basket, making 37% on 2FG and 27% on 3FG. Meanwhile, Kent shot 56% and 46%.  Overall, BG had .88 points per possession and allowed 1.17, both losing numbers.

This is not a normal Kent year, but we know no one will want to play them in Cleveland.  They are 7-5 in MAC play...last year they were 6-6 after 12 games.  They have won 4 straight, including the Sun Belt game. They have one of the tougher closing schedules in the MAC, playing 4 of 6 on the road.

Kent plays #11 in terms of pace and the first game was BG's slowest MAC game of the season.

Kent is the best defensive team in the MAC, allowing .99 points per possession. That is the normal order to business for the Flashes, who also led in 21-22 and 22-23.  They are #7 in offense.  BG is #6 in defense and #10 in offense.  The first step is for BG to hold KS to nearer their normal scoring than they did last time, which would make the game closer right there.

They are good across the board on defense. They are #2 against the shot, #2 against both the 2FG and the #3FG, and #1 at forcing turnovers and on the defensive boards.  They do give up a lot of FTs--they foul a lot, almost as a strategy to dare the official to call them all.  If the defense can get it close, the offense will need to take care of the ball and hit their FTs to bridge the gap.  Also, KS is great on the offensive boards--BG needs D-boards to get into transition and avoid playing half court offense.

Kent is best on the boards, where they are #3 in the MAC.  They are #6 shooting the 2FG and #10 on the 3FG. They do turn the ball over and they do not get to the line.  BG does not defend the shot well, but will need to get some stops and clear the board to have a shot to create offense on the other end.

They are led by two familiar names.  VonCameron Davis, averages 15.8 PPG on 47% and 37% shooting.  Jalen Sullinger scored 15.4 PPG on 56% and 32%, with most of his shots coming from 3FG. Cian Medley leads them with 5.2 APG and Delrecco Gillespie leads them in rebounding and is #2 in the MAC.

So off we go.  KSU to date is not the team we are used to seeing, but they still represent a tough challenge for the Falcons. It would be a nice night for some shots to fall, as unlikely as that would appear from the matchup.

Falcon MBB Gets Road Win

BG got a badly needed road win at UB on Saturday.  UB was tied with BG in the standings and BG is down in the race to make the final 8.  Even so, EMU and WMU beat top MAC teams Saturday to stay a game ahead of the Falcons, who are tied with CMU for 9/10--both out of the top 8 for now.  More on all of that later.

It was interesting in that BG led for 36 minutes and for the entire second half, but the game was always close.  BG led by no more than 8 in the first half and 7 in the second half.  It was no offensive masterpiece as a game....but BG scored when UB got close.  With about 10 minutes to play, BG went on a Javonte Campbell-fueled mini-run as he scored all 6 to get the lead to 7. 

That kind of set things in place and the lead stayed above one possession most of the way.  At the last media timeout, BG was still up 6.  The timeout came with 3:43 left.  The two teams went over a minute without scoring before UB cut it to 2 with 2:31 left. BG ran the clock down before Thomas hit a layup to put BG up 6.  UB got a layup to make it 4, forced a miss on a late clock 3FG by Thomas, and then Boldin scored again to make the lead 2 points with :56.

BG went to a play they used often with Justin Turner.  This time it was Campbell at the top of the key, dribbled the clock down and then he gets to the rim and finishes to make the lead 4 again with :27 to play.

UB made a big play, hitting a 2FG and the foul and chance to cut the lead to 1 with :18 left.  They missed the FT and due to official idiocy (more later) it took until :09 for the foul on Johnson was called.  He hit both FTs and BG won by 4.

It was no testament to the sport of basketball.  Not from UB, BG, or the officials.  I'm glad to be able to say this in a game we won, but the officiating in this one was a joke.  There'd be a bevy of ticky-tack fouls and then they'd stand there mutely while a Black Friday melee broke out on the next possession.  Both teams suffered from these guys.  All it did was largely take the game out of the player's hands.  A little hint.  If you start calling fouls like crazy, you won't be able to be consistent because sooner or later you are going to have to back off in order to keep guys in the game.

Anyhoo.  It was a 68-possession game, which is a little slow for our taste. 

Both teams had terrible games on offense, with BG scoring .93 points per possession and UB getting .87.  BG was narrowly outshot and smoked on the offensive boards.  However, due to 3 fewer turnovers, BG ended up with more FGAs and were +1 in points from field goals and +3 in free throws.  BG was 15-19 at the line (79%) and UB was 12-21 (57%), costing them the game.

About time.  Even with that, BG's collective opponents have the highest FT rate in the nation at 79%.

Javonte Campbell had the kind of game we imagined when he came here and before his hand injury...it was a Marcus Hill-like 20 on 8 of 10 from 2 FG and 4-7 at the line.  Thomas had 10 on 3 of 5 and 1 of 6 shooting. With Johnson and Butler both only getting 7, BG does not win the game without Campbell. Exacte had 9 rebounds and Humphrey had 5 steals.

Here is where things stand.

7.  EMU 5-7

8. WMU 5-7

9. CMU 4-8

10. BG 4-8.

BG plays EMU and WMU.  If BG can get in with 7 wins (losses to KS, @UT, @EMU, beating BS, NI and WM, I think they have a shot.  If they have to get to 8...it could be tougher.  CMU has the easiest scheduling coming home.

My guess is that it's less than 50/50.  A win this week--however unlikely--would be a huge lift.

Next Up for MBB: Da' Bulls.

BG plays a team for the second time for the first time this year...if that makes any sense.  The team holding that honor is the UB Bulls, who BG beat by 18 at the Stroh.

Since then, BG is 1-6 in MAC games. UB is 3-4 since losing to BG.  None of those wins are against top teams in the MAC. The Falcons and the Bulls are tied for 10th-11th at 3-8.  BG is a 1.5 point favorite.

In the first game, BG was up 4 at the half, came out of the locker room with the first 7 points and led by 10 or more for the remainder of the game.

BG had 1.13 points per possession, which is pretty good and allowed UB .87, which is a really low offensive number.  BG didn't shoot the ball well, but UB shot it terrible.  They were 7-33 from 3FG, which amazingly is only their 4th worst 3FG% of the year. They are a poor rebounding team, which you can see here, and they were blown out at the line. BG was 27 of 36 at the line, for a +8 differential.  That's an incredible FT Rate, FWIW.

UB is the worst offensive team in the MAC.  They are 10th in shooting, 11th in turnovers and 10th in offensive rebounding. They try the highest percentage of 3FGS in the MAC, but are 8th in making them.  On defense, they are 7th in the MAC.  That's #8 against the shot, #8 in forcing turnovers and #11 on the defensive boards.

In game one, Ben Michaels led the Bulls with 13 and 8 rebounds.  Noah Batchelor had 11 points and 6 rebounds.  He's a Maryland transfer.  Ryan Sabol had 10.

Their leading scorer in MAC play is Ryan Sabol, who is scoring 15.4 PPG on 57% and 36% shooting.  He is #7 in the MAC in minutes played.

The other double-figure scorer is Tyson Dunn, who was held to 5 in the first game.  He scores 14 on 48 and 37% shooting and leads the MAC at 6.1 assists per game.  Batchelor leads in rebounding at 6.8 per game.

BG is running out of road.  That OU loss made our job all the more difficult.  It would have been great to pull that one out.  

This is a rough year.  In a MAC that is verging on low major, BG is 3-8 and their first >300 kenpom in school history.  There have certainly been obstacles this year--and we played Akron, Miami and OU tight--but the season overall has been disappointing.

OU Closes Out BG MBB

Falcons MBB lost a tough one last night...they played hard and competitively and it was an entertaining game, but when the end came, yet again, the better team made all the plays and won the game.  BG falls to 3-8 in the MAC.  There are three teams at 4-7 and BG would need to beat two of them to get into 8th place.

There were 9 times and 7 lead changes and OU led for almost 20 minutes while BG led for 16.

That includes getting out to a 12-4 start before OU reeled them in and took a 15-13 lead.  OU got the lead as high as 6 with 8 minutes to go, but BG took a 1-point lead with 1:30 left.  They were down 1 when Marcus Johnson nailed a wild, falling out of bounds 3 to put BG up 2 at the break.

BG came out of the locker room fast, and with 15:29 left had a 10-point lead.  The game's turning point came next...Da'Jion Humprey drew his 3rd and 4th foul in rapid succession and was forced to the bench. BG already had foul trouble with Thomas and Campbell.  '

By 10:40 the lead was down to 3 and by 9:21 OU was in the lead.  BG would not lead again, but the game remained very tightly fought. The game was tied 5 times in the following minutes, the last time with 2:14 left, at 74.

OU scored the next 7 points to lead by 7 with :43 left, and the game was over.

I mention about Humphrey and it might seem like an overstatement.  But consider this.  BG 's two best performing sets were Humphrey-Thomas-Johnson-Felt-Campell (+6) and Humphrey-Thomas-Johnson-Felt-Campell (+7).  For the game, Humphrey was +14 in 26 minutes.  By definition, without him BG was -19 for the remaining 14 minutes.

Coach Simon said he had "no explanation" for the second half refereeing, in which BG was called for 19 fouls to OU's 13.  It often appeared to be full-contact defense when OU was defending, and breathing fouls on our end. They were 22-26 at the line IN THE SECOND HALF.  Some was garbage time, but it was bad before that.

At 77 possessions, it was the fastest game of the year in MAC play for BG. The Falcons had 1.06 points per possession,  which is a little above national average.  But, BG gave up 1.12.

That free throw rate is the most since UC shot 55 free throws against us at Thanksgiving 2019. BG's shooting was not terrible, with 50% from 2FG and 39% from 3FG.  OU made 59% and 33%, and 88% at the line. 

Something I keep mentioning...BG's opponents have made 80% of their FTs for the season, the highest percentage of any D1 team.

Johnson had 21 for BG, on 5 of 8 and 3 of 10 shooting.  Also, 4-4 at the line, with 5 assists and 3 turnovers. Derrick Butler had 18 off the bench on 5 of 11 and 2 of 4 shooting. He had 4 turnovers.

Campbell had 13 on 4 of 8 and 1 of 2 shooting, 2 of 4 at the line and 2 steals.

Humphrey had 11 on 2 of 3 and 2 of 3 shooting, 4 rebounds and 2 steals.

And Felt double-doubled, with 10 on 3-3 2FG shooting, 4 of 6 at the line and 10 rebounds.

So BG heads to UB in a game they really need if they are going to stay in the hunt.  Right now, BG and UB are tied at 3-8.

MBB: OU Preview

Next up for BG is the OU Bobcats.  They are normally one of the four consistent programs in MAC Men's Basketball and were picked by Blue Ribbon to win the MAC.  To date, things have not gone that way. They were 6-6 in pre-MAC play, and their kenpom fell from 118 to 163.  

In fact, last year they were also 6-6 entering MAC play and 7-5 to start MAC play.  They won their last 6, finished 13-5 in MAC play and lost in the semi to Akron.

This year, they won their first 4 MAC games and are 2-4 since then.  They also lost by 13 to App State on Saturday.  For various parts of the last 6 games, they have had three starters missing games.  Two are back, but Aidan Hadaway has missed the last 6 and is unlikely to return from a broken ankle.

The Bobcats are clearly not where they hoped to be.  If they can get healthy for Cleveland, I think they have a shot at winning the tournament.  In the meantime, BG is hoping to show what they can do after getting the flu out but with Sam Towns and Yo-Yo Khayat (I assume) still on the bench.

Kenpom gives OU a 66% chance to win and Vegas makes them 4.5-point favorites.

BG has won 6 of the last 10 and the last 6 at the Stroh.  The last loss was in 2017 by 24, when Coach Huger suspended Rasheed Worrell, Zack Denny, Antwon Lillard and Ismail Ali. Two football players logged 5 minutes each in keeping the team afloat.

Both teams like to play fast...OU at 73 possessions and BG at 70.

Based on the year to date, you wouldn't expect to see any surprises here.  OU is #4 in offense and #3 in defense, and BG is the mirror opposite..meaning in the bottom half of the conference.

OU takes 38% of their shots from 3FG, which is below the national average of 40%. They are above average on both FGs, making 55% from 2FG (3rd) and 36.6% from 3FG (6th).  They take excellent care of the ball, are a terrible rebounding team (Remember, they lost their top rebounder).  They do get to the line and make 76% when they are there, which is also good.

BG is the easiest team to shoot against in the MAC.  They have relied on the other three factors--all of which they are pretty good at--to have whatever success they are having.  A note of bad luck...BG's opponents make 78% of their FTs, highest in the MAC.

OU's opponents shoot only 34% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is the lowest in the MAC. I'm not sure why...they are #3 defending the 2FG and #5 defending the 3FG.  They keep their opponents off the line but are not good at forcing turnovers or on the defensive boards.

Making some shots wouldn't be the worst thing to happen.  BG counts on getting to the line and will need to force OU into fouling.  And hopefully, 2nd chance points will get BG's scoring to the point where they can stay in the game.

OU has five players scoring in double figures.

AJ Clayton is the leading scorer at 14.3 PPG on 52% and 49% shooting, which is really efficient.   He has blocked 16 shots in 7 games.

Jackson Paveletzke is scoring 14.1 PPG.  He played previously at Wofford and Iowa State.  He's shooting 62% (most of his shots) and 32%. He leads the team with 43 assists.

AJ Brown is scoring 13.9 PPG on 56% and 40% shooting, also very efficient. 

Shereef Mitchell scores 13.3 PPG on 45% and 36% shooting.

Aidan Hadaway is also scoring in double figures and leading them in rebounds, but is injured and not expected to return.

So here we go.  BG will need to exceed some expectations to get things turned around and this would appear to be as good an opportunity as any.  It would be great to see Johnson, Thomas and Butler synchronize and generate consistent offensive pressure....and also for BG to avoid settling into a stagnant offense for long periods of time.

Football News

 A couple of news from the football front...

First, Erik Campbell, who came to BG with Loeffler, is leaving to return to the University of Michigan as an assistant WR Coach...which is as opposed to the Assistant Coach of WRS....he will be assisting that guy.

As I noted in my season wrap-up, I believe the coaches on the offensive side of the ball could use a shake up.  When I look at the players we have, I think our output is less than the sum of our parts.  (6th in scoring offense, 8th in rushing yards/carry, 5th in pass efficiency).

Some fresh blood will be useful.  This is also a position group we have had trouble getting bodies into...that will also need to improve.

Also, the first verbal of '26 is in. His name is Derrick Singletary and he's from Middletown, OH.  He also goes by JD, apparently.   He's an EDGE rusher. He was all-district as a junior and a 3-star recruit on 247.  He was heavily recruited...Ball State, UB, EMU, UK, OU, Temple, UT, WVU and WMU.

There is an interesting trend developing.  With the new roster limits, HS players may find it tough to get recruited by P4 schools.  It's possible the MAC could pick those players up....as they look to play their way to a higher level. Singletary might be in that category.  Also, walk-ons will be disappearing...and some of those guys might be MAC-quality players as well.

Best of luck Erik.  Welcome to the Falcons, Derrick.

Falcons Go On Coastal Carolina Cruise (MBB)

BG got what they needed Saturday, beating Coastal Carolina in a drama-free effort that capped off a week where BG won 2 games at home over teams that were a collective 8-35 in D1 games.  Still, it's the first two-game winning streak since New Mexico St/Morgan State and was badly needed.

The two games coincide with BG getting healthier and a couple of younger players picking up the pace, Derrick Butler getting healthy, etc.   We'll get a chance to field test that group against OU on Tuesday at the Stroh.

The first big test was tempo and it went BG's way.  CC plays very slow and BG players faster...and BG got the game to 69 possessions which suited them better.

BG led the game for 39:15.  They led by more than 10 for the last 30 minutes of the game.  They burst out to a big lead and CC did get it back to 11, but the Falcons never let it get into any kind of danger zone. BG led by 23 in the first half and 25 in the second half.

It wasn't built on a great offensive performance.  BG scored .97 points per possession, which is normally a losing number.  Except for that NM State game, 1.14 was our lowest winning number.   BG took 41% of their shots from 3FG, which is in their normal range.  They made 41%, which is obviously good.  The disappointing part was that they made 37% on 2FG, which is just terrible and sadly only their 4th worst of the year.

If offense didn't win the game, defense did. BG did outshoot CC, who scored .77 points per possession, the lowest against BG in a D1 game this year.  They made 45% from 2FG and 21% from 3FG.  CC had twice as many turnovers as BG. The Falcons had 11 steals. Teams that win shooting and turnovers win 94% of the time.  BG got to the line more and was +4 in FTs made.

Derrick Butler coming off the bench, had a big game.  19 points in 23 minutes on 5 of 7 from 3FG.  Coach was asked about it and he might keep Butler off the bench if the combinations work with some of the subs.  Earlier, BG was getting nothing from the bench and if we can switch that, we can get some more rest for our starters.

Thomas had 12 on 4 of 6 3FG shooting and 0-5 2FG shooting. 

Marcus Johnson had 11 but it was rough...1 of 9 and 1 of 4.  Made all 4 FTs, 3 assists and 4 steals over 1 TO. 

Felt also had 11, on 5 of 6 from 2FG, 11 rebounds (double-double), 2 assists and 2 blocked shots.  

Braelon Green seems to be coming into this own.  Coach says he is embracing being a playmaker.  In 19 minutes, he had 5 assists over 1 TO. 

Wil Exacte had 4 steals. And Javonte Campbell had 3 assists.

The MAC-Sun Belt Challenge ended 12-12.  Both teams went 8-4 at home.  So, back to MAC play.  BG has 8 games left and is 1 game back from going to Cleveland.