Hornet Preview

 OK... can you believe it's only been a week since the Miami game?  WOW.  Well, now we are ready to go again...

This time it's Sacramento State.  And it's the first time....to say the least.  Sac State is the newest FBS team and we all know by now that they bought their way into the MAC.  They are the Hornets.

They would be expected to have a rough time, and they are.  Now...in the SP+ they are ranking right next to BG, and the Falcons are 7.5 point favorites.  I sense that maybe Vegas isn't quite buying what happened last week.

They were 5.5 point dogs to UMass and got blown out. They were 8.5 point dogs to EMU and lost by 11.

FWIW, they are playing at 9 AM based on their body clocks.  It is the earliest game in their history.  Their notes say they practice regularly at 9AM.

They are coming off a bye week.

They are 1-4 this season, with their only win over an FBS team.  Since that win, they have gone down 115-19 in 3 games.

On offense, they are 10th in the MAC in scoring, BG is 11th in defense.  However, Sac State has not played any P4 opposition.  On paper, they rush for only yards per carry, and they have used 4 backs pretty evenly. Their top backs average 4.9 and 5 yards per carry, respectively.  The next two are not so good.

Not surprisingly, they have run the ball only 45% of the time. They are #10 in the MAC in pass efficiency. They complete 57% of their passes, which is 12th in the MAC and only 10 yards per completion, 5 TDs and 6 INT.  Jackson Sharman has started since game 2.  He's 9th in the MAC in passing efficiency.  He transferred from Idaho State.  They have WR Matthew Coleman, who is #3 in the MAC in receptions and #12 in yards per catch.  He transferred from SD State.

They are 7th is scoring defense and in yards per play allowed and yards per rush.  And 8th against the pass. They allow 68% completion rate, which is 12th, but only 11.2 per catch.  They are the only MAC team without an interception.  

While we are at it, they are -9 on turnovers.  

They have a decent punting game and are 6-8 on FGs, but nothing over 40.  Not much going on the return game either way.

Here's what the thing is.  We look across the field and think, hey, here is somebody we can beat.  They look across the field and see the exact same thing.

BG needs to put a streak together to restore faith in where we are going. That week was just perfect.  But it needs to be paid off with wins as we hit an easier part of our schedule.

Past and Future Opponent Land

  Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (4-0)  Beat Chicago State

Sep. 12 Nebraska (5-0) Beat Maryland

Sep. 19 Iowa State (3-2) Beat WVU

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (4-1) Lost to Temple

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (2-3) We beat them

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-3)  Idle hands

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-4) Lost to UT

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (2-3) Lost by 3 to WMU.  Went for TD instead of for tie.

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (3-2*) Beat BSU

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-3) Lost to OU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (4-1) Beat Ball Stte

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-1).  Sham revealed; EMU smokes them.

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-16

MAC vs G?: 6-10

Sweet Victory

 Oh, sweet victory.  Man.  It is just the best.  And that team, on the road, beating Miami of all people.  Was a good day to be a Falcon.

How good.  Let's ask Chuck Martin. "Obviously, 'disappointing' is an understatement,' said head coach Chuck Martin. 'That's a game we've got to win... we should win that game, and we didn't get it done."

HA HA HA.  F*ck Miami.

Or...

And congrats to everyone involved, players, coaches, and staff.  So much hard work finally rewarded. They have proven to be resilient, to be improving, and now be a team we can expect to be competitive.

Great job.

This one was won where two others were lost--in the last 2 minutes.  The game was tied 24-24.  MU was 2nd and 7 from the 8 with 1:54 left.  BG had already held them to 2 FGs and 1 TD in three previous red zone trips, and they stiffened up again, forcing incompletions on two well-covered throws to the end zone, but the short FG gave them the lead, 27-24.

BG had 1:47 left, all its timeouts, and the ball on the 25. We have certainly been here before.  Missed some key throws last week that Coach called out in evaluating our QB.  This was different.  Kastantin was great.  Miami was gangbusters rushing, but Kastantin moved in the pocket, stepped up, and threw darts to WRs who had, glory be, created some space.  Playcalling was good: short passes, higher percentage.

And we were playing for the win not to be in field goal range.

Ridley for 14.  Scoby for 18. Incompletion, and then Amarchee for 9 and out of bounds.  Third and one from the 34 with:47 left. Jacon-Duffy for 8 and BG timeout.  Winn Sharp for 9 to the MU 17 and out of bounds. Incompletion, 3rd and 1, and Kastantin scrambles for the first, and BG calls timeout on the 14 with :22 left.  Incompletion.  Frankly, still looking like a FG to tie the game.

Then, BG spotted a mismatch, with Scoby lined up against a smaller safety.  BG went to the right corner, and Minich was forced to interfere with Scoby to prevent the TD.  Never saw a less-protested DPI in my life.  

From the 2 with:12 left.  Let us stop to recall the pivotal 4th down play last week against USF.  BG lines up in an I-formation...old-school...but instead of going to the TB, they handed it to the up back, Leo Kemp, who powered and stretched his way into the end zone for the TD.  

That's what I'm talking about.

So.  A few things jump out here.  First, BG's yards per play.  Our previous high was 5.5 against Tarleton, but 3.6 against Iowa State was the highest against DI.  Here, BG put up 6.1, a significant improvement.  The key appears to be something that many of you have been asking for.  BG was unable to run...again. They averaged 3 yards per carry, sack-adjusted.

So BG adjusted.  They ran 60 plays, and 37 were passes, plus the sack and any dropback-scrambles.  And that was a key in this game.  Coach said Kastantin had to get better, and he did.  68% completions, 12 yards per catch, 2 TD and 0 INT is a hit in any league.  And when the pressure was on, he delivered.

BG also converted on 3rd down---this makes a huge difference.  And that's on an average of 5.7 yards to go.

Lastly, BG made good use of explosion plays.  They had fewer than Miami...but they were very explosive.

The defense was outstanding again.  The Falcons controlled the rush.  MU's QB is their third QB, but he looked pretty solid as well.  As with the USF game, the defense kept BG in the game and then got the huge stop that led to the winning drive and then the sack to close the door.  If we keep playing defense like that, we're in every game.

Special teams went Miami's way...a couple long FGs and three punts inside the 20.

Last key.  Miami had 12 penalties for 103 yards.  That's not going to sit well, for sure.

Metric	Bowling Green	Miami (OH)
Yards per Rush	2.7	3.1
Yards per Completion	12.2	11.6
Completion %	67.6% (25/37)	70.8% (17/24)
Yards per Play	6.1	5.2
3rd Down Conversions	50.0% (6/12)	27.3% (3/11)
Red Zone Efficiency	100% (3/3)	100% (4/4)
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	6-64	12-103
Explosion Plays	4 — 155 yards	7 — 143 yards
Special Teams Index	+1	+7

Kemp was our leading rusher...with 25 yards on 3 carries and a long of 17. Brennan Ridley was 9 for 95, long of 48 and the first big grab to get the winning drive started. Winn Sharp was 5 for 63.  Dorian Pringle is back--he had 10 tackles. Eriq George had 8 tackles and 3 sacks. Cashmire Lewis had 7 tackles and 2 sacks. (Bradley did play with a big club).

So everything looks different.  Now, good games have to be stacked onto one another.  We will be favored next week for the first time in a long time.  I was especially excited to see our WRs start to be productive, along with the hybrid TEs.  

Let's go!

Miami Preview

 And on we go.  We are one-third of the way through the year, and winless.  Yet every year brings this kind of reset...we start MAC play.  If things turn around, we can forget about the slow start.  And the MAC is where we are supposed to be able to compete.  It has been 11 years since we hoisted the trophy or played for it.

Miami is first up.  The MAC seems to be lining up into haves and have-nots, and I fear Miami is in the first group and we are in the second.  They supposedly pay their players competitive rates, and they have played in the last 3 MAC title games, winning one of them.

We did not play them last year.  After the Big Ben season, they were pretty average for a few years, but things have changed since Chuck Martin arrived.  Miami has won 6 of 8 vs. BG in that time, and BG's last win in Oxford was a shocking 37-29 win in 2017.  Miami won the last meeting, 28-12 at the Doyt...a division title was at stake, but Loeffler's Falcons could not hold serve, and Miami moved to the final.

Defense has been Miami's calling card.  Over the last 5 years, they have been in the top 3 in the MAC in scoring defense, while ranking in the top 5 in offense only once in that period.

Things have been a little different this year, but they could still change in MAC play.  They are 2-2. They have an easy win over Holy Cross, and a thrilling homecoming win over UConn, led by a backup QB and a FR kicker cashiering the winning FG. They lost big to Pitt (59-14) and lost a shootout, 35-31, to UC.

They are #88 in SP+.  BG, the MAC's only winless team, is #136, ahead of only ULM and Charlotte. They are 13.5-point favorites.

That's with David McComb, their Kansas transfer star QB, #2 passer in the MAC, is out for the season.  So, down your starting QB, still a 14-point favorite.

Their backup is Caleb Havener, a JUCO transfer.  He had big numbers there and was 3-3 leading Miami's winning drive against UConn.

They rank #4 in scoring in the MAC this year and #2 in yards per play at 6.8. Here's where the QB injury could be trouble...they are #11 in running the ball to date and #2 in passing efficiency.  They are relying on passing, and if they struggle to do that, they present a different team.  

They are #3 on 3rd down, which is a force multiplier.  They have 8 TDs and 3 FGs on 12 red-zone attempts.

On paper, everything is a mismatch with the BG defense after Nebraska and Iowa State.  That said, BG showed strong defense last week, and if it continues, this becomes a more winnable proposition.  Assuming BG's offense doesn't do a 180, its defense will need to compete in any game this year.  BG will be without Myles Bradley, who had four sacks against USF.

Speaking of sacks, Miami has allowed six sacks on 112 attempts.

Miami is -1 on turnovers.

Defensively, Miami is #7 in scoring defense, #7 in yards per rush allowed, and #9 in passing efficiency defense.  Ordinarily, this might be viewed as an opportunity for BG, but it's going to take a surprising performance for BG to capitalize on this.  MU allows 66% completions, has only 1 INT, and allows 12.1 yards per completion.

They rank #7 in defending 3rd down and have allowed 10 TDs on 11 red-zone attempts.

Special teams-wise, their kicking has struggled. (Highly unusual for Miami). Their original kicker was 2-6 with a long of 24, so they brought in Brady Stidham to nail the winner (from 33) against UConn.  The original kicker (McLaughlin) is still listed at the top of their depth chart.  BG is the only team that hasn't missed a FG this year.

Miami would have to have a punter named Pierse, yes spelled with the "S." Miami is #9 in net punting, while BG is last.

In the return game, Scoop Smith is #2 in the nation in Kickoff returns, averaging 44 with one TD. Their punt return is negligible.

We would be remiss not to mention the insane history between these two schools.  Miami has dominated the series, amid crazy games like the last one on Doytgrass, the Fog Bowl, the 4th down call, it goes on.  There was one year when Miami's long snapper put three of them out of the end zone.

You get the idea.

George Presser

 Coach George had his presser today.  A couple of interesting points.

First, Myles Bradley is doubtful for next week.

Second, Clint Corpe did his best to ask the question that I think most fans have.  In fact, it's as close as any member of the media has come in years to asking a hard question to a BG Coach.  Questions usually are like, "how did this feel?" and "how tough was that?"

He asked Coach about why we didn't take to the pass game sooner, given that it was clear we weren't going to be able to run....a question that has been on the lips of many fans.  And Coach said that it was because we didn't think we could protect the QB and that kept us from looking downfield more.  He also noted that we tried a few downfield shots, but didn't execute them, including on the last drive.

He was also asked about Kastantin's play.  He said "he has to get better."  The question left open that there might be a change, but he didn't take that bait.  Coach said that the Jay missed some throws that were open and he has to learn to execute under pressure.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (3-0)  Bye

Sep. 12 Nebraska (4-0) Won easily @MSU.

Sep. 19 Iowa State (2-2) Lost to Utah

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (4-0) Beat us

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (2-3) Beat UConn (HA HA Candle)

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-3) Lost 35-6 to UMass

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-3) Lost to Kent

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (2-2) Beat Robert Morris 31-28

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (2-2*) As nation watched, loss to Boise 32-7 in Kzoo

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-2) Beat BSU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (3-1) Cruised past SD State

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-0).  Beat Sac State

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-16

MAC vs G?: 6-10

Homecoming Sadness

 Oof.  It was almost the perfect homecoming.  Great weather.  Huge crowd.  HUGE.  And a team putting a much improved performance over its first three games.

The only thing that would have made it perfect, said Coach George afterward, would be to have won.

Instead, the Falcons fall to 0-4.

It was a day marked by a putrid offensive performance.  Look, a lot of people are focusing on the playcalling or the run-oriented offense that BG is using this year.  I don't object to that...teams have won the MAC playing that way.  I'm not sure it's the best fit for our personnel.  We are inexperienced (not even young) on the line and offer virtually nothing at WR that can take the top off and relieve pressure.  These are weaknesses that were apparent last year when the season ended and very much turned out to be.

You can't blame the defense.  More on that later.

The turning point came on the first play of the 4th quarter.  BG up 6-0 and 4th and 1 on their own 45.  They had the whole break to think about it.  Coach said he was contemplating punting.  He said the team stuck together, the defense was all over him saying they had the offense's back, and he decided to go for it. (I'd feel better if the offense was all over him saying we could make it, but....) .  We went for it.

Dendy got the ball and was blown up behind the LOS. Coach said one of the linemen went the wrong way and left the gap open and the play had no chance.  

FWIW, I was in favor of going for it.  You have to be able to make 1 yard.

Six plays later, the Bulls were in the end zone and instead of defending a lead, but was playing from behind.

Time for the offense to rally.  One first down and a 35 yard punt later, USF started on their own 28.  Six plays later, aided by a personal foul against BG (and a really sketchy DPI), USF was up 14-6.  There's 5:34 left to play, with 9:30 turning the tide.

At least the offense came alive.  Starting at their own 18, they made 4 first downs, converting a 3rd and 10 and a 3rd and 4.  It was third and 7 from the 21 with :53 to play. And the wheels came off.  Kastantin was sacked for a 9-yard loss. On 4th down, USF brought the house, Kastantin ran for his life and just before going down flung the ball to the middle of the field.  Winn Sharp caught it one yard short of the first down and that was that.

Category	Bowling Green	South Florida
Yards per rush	2.6	3.9
Yards per completion	7.6	7.4
Completion %	57.1% (16/28)	63.6% (7/11)
Yards per play	3.4	4.0
3rd down	5/15 (33.3%)	3/10 (30.0%)
Red zone	1/1 (100%)	2/2 (100%)
Turnovers	0	2
Special Teams Index	+2	+5
Explosive plays	3 — 38 yards	7 — 131 yards

These are not great numbers.  USF came in at 5.2 yards per play and BG held them to 4.  Some of this is a little misleading.  USF has 52 yards passing and 49 yards in sacks.  However, those get added to rushing in college ball.  Crowder averaged 6.2 yards per carry, which is good.  But, 4 yards per play is a solid day.

Meanwhile, BG's offense was just dreadful, even after being +2 on turnovers.  BG's line can't block the run or the drop back pass.  I don't see that there's much to be done with playcalling.  In fact, BG called two perfect pass plays, but Kastantin overthrew the receivers on both (these were on the final drive.)

Which is not to blame our QB.  Because he has to run for his life so often, he's the right guy for this assignment.

Obviously, you don't get new players.  If the defense can continue to be effective, the offense doesn't have to score 30 to win.  But 3.4 yards per play will lose every game.

Quick word about Myles Frazier, a LB/S who entered the portal last year and then returned.  He had a record day for BG.  He had 4.5 sacks and forced fumbles on two of them, one of which he recovered.  BG believes it's a record for sacks in a game, though there aren't complete records for that stat.

He had a hell of a day.  BG just abused the RT on pass pro.

So on we go.  Down to Miami, the defending champions and 2-2 on this year.  The issues with the offense are plain to see.  BG needs to figure out how to move the ball to have any shot in Oxford.