Past and Future Opponent Land

 Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (3-0)  Bye

Sep. 12 Nebraska (4-0) Won easily @MSU.

Sep. 19 Iowa State (2-2) Lost to Utah

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (4-0) Beat us

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (2-3) Beat UConn (HA HA Candle)

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-3) Lost 35-6 to UMass

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-3) Lost to Kent

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (2-2) Beat Robert Morris 31-28

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (2-2*) As nation watched, loss to Boise 32-7 in Kzoo

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-2) Beat BSU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (3-1) Cruised past SD State

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-0).  Beat Sac State

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-16

MAC vs G?: 6-10

Homecoming Sadness

 Oof.  It was almost the perfect homecoming.  Great weather.  Huge crowd.  HUGE.  And a team putting a much improved performance over its first three games.

The only thing that would have made it perfect, said Coach George afterward, would be to have won.

Instead, the Falcons fall to 0-4.

It was a day marked by a putrid offensive performance.  Look, a lot of people are focusing on the playcalling or the run-oriented offense that BG is using this year.  I don't object to that...teams have won the MAC playing that way.  I'm not sure it's the best fit for our personnel.  We are inexperienced (not even young) on the line and offer virtually nothing at WR that can take the top off and relieve pressure.  These are weaknesses that were apparent last year when the season ended and very much turned out to be.

You can't blame the defense.  More on that later.

The turning point came on the first play of the 4th quarter.  BG up 6-0 and 4th and 1 on their own 45.  They had the whole break to think about it.  Coach said he was contemplating punting.  He said the team stuck together, the defense was all over him saying they had the offense's back, and he decided to go for it. (I'd feel better if the offense was all over him saying we could make it, but....) .  We went for it.

Dendy got the ball and was blown up behind the LOS. Coach said one of the linemen went the wrong way and left the gap open and the play had no chance.  

FWIW, I was in favor of going for it.  You have to be able to make 1 yard.

Six plays later, the Bulls were in the end zone and instead of defending a lead, but was playing from behind.

Time for the offense to rally.  One first down and a 35 yard punt later, USF started on their own 28.  Six plays later, aided by a personal foul against BG (and a really sketchy DPI), USF was up 14-6.  There's 5:34 left to play, with 9:30 turning the tide.

At least the offense came alive.  Starting at their own 18, they made 4 first downs, converting a 3rd and 10 and a 3rd and 4.  It was third and 7 from the 21 with :53 to play. And the wheels came off.  Kastantin was sacked for a 9-yard loss. On 4th down, USF brought the house, Kastantin ran for his life and just before going down flung the ball to the middle of the field.  Winn Sharp caught it one yard short of the first down and that was that.

Category	Bowling Green	South Florida
Yards per rush	2.6	3.9
Yards per completion	7.6	7.4
Completion %	57.1% (16/28)	63.6% (7/11)
Yards per play	3.4	4.0
3rd down	5/15 (33.3%)	3/10 (30.0%)
Red zone	1/1 (100%)	2/2 (100%)
Turnovers	0	2
Special Teams Index	+2	+5
Explosive plays	3 — 38 yards	7 — 131 yards

These are not great numbers.  USF came in at 5.2 yards per play and BG held them to 4.  Some of this is a little misleading.  USF has 52 yards passing and 49 yards in sacks.  However, those get added to rushing in college ball.  Crowder averaged 6.2 yards per carry, which is good.  But, 4 yards per play is a solid day.

Meanwhile, BG's offense was just dreadful, even after being +2 on turnovers.  BG's line can't block the run or the drop back pass.  I don't see that there's much to be done with playcalling.  In fact, BG called two perfect pass plays, but Kastantin overthrew the receivers on both (these were on the final drive.)

Which is not to blame our QB.  Because he has to run for his life so often, he's the right guy for this assignment.

Obviously, you don't get new players.  If the defense can continue to be effective, the offense doesn't have to score 30 to win.  But 3.4 yards per play will lose every game.

Quick word about Myles Frazier, a LB/S who entered the portal last year and then returned.  He had a record day for BG.  He had 4.5 sacks and forced fumbles on two of them, one of which he recovered.  BG believes it's a record for sacks in a game, though there aren't complete records for that stat.

He had a hell of a day.  BG just abused the RT on pass pro.

So on we go.  Down to Miami, the defending champions and 2-2 on this year.  The issues with the offense are plain to see.  BG needs to figure out how to move the ball to have any shot in Oxford.

USF Preview

 All right, folks, here we go.  South Florida is in town... and BG will be going for their first win of the year against the 3-0 Bulls.  Here are some things to know.

The Bulls beat FIU 19-9, Army 28-24 and Delaware State 59-17.

They were picked #4 in the American Conference. 

We have played them once, in an Urban Meyer game.  We played in Tampa in 2002 and they beat us 29-7.

Right now, in SP+, they are #67.  BG is #156 (we are the #2 ranked DII team) and USF is a 17.5 point favorite tomorrow.

BG is going to have to show something we haven't seen in order to get this win.  Back at home, nice day, who knows?

Despite their two wins, there are signs that the Bulls are not necessarily as good as their record. Removing their FCS game, they are 2-0 in their FBS games but have been outgained by 80 yards per game, which is not normal.  That's probably at least partly because they are deadly good on 3rd down (46%) and are +4 in turnovers, and that's 4 takeaways and zero losses.

They are #37 in the nation in scoring defense and they are allowing 5.3 yards per play, which is not bad.  They are stronger against the rush (3.9 per carry) but #109 in passing defense.  They have given up 137 plays to their own 111, which I assume is from playing Army.

On the offensive side, they are pretty average...#87 in scoring, 5.2 yards per play--basically even with their defensive side, despite being 2-0.  They are rushing 3.8 yards per game, which is not good at all. They have passed effectively, with 63% of their passes completed and 11 yards per catch, which is a pretty good combination. They have also allowed only 1 sack in 48 attempts, #10 in the country.

Their coach, of course, is former Buckeye WR Brian Hartline.

As mentioned, they are making 46% on 3rd down and they are 100% in the red zone with 3 TDs and 3 FGS in 6 attempts.

They are very strong on special teams.  Nico Gramatica, son of Martin, is 4-4 this year with a long of 53.  They are #24 in net punting and #15 in kickoff return defense. 

Their QB, Michael Van Buren, JR., is a transfer from LSU who started the last four games of the '25 season for the Tigers.  Before that, he started 8 games at Mississippi State. He is a dual-threat QB.

None of the players were all-American conference in the pre-season.  That's not a surprise since they returned only 4 starters, with a new coach and all.

In summary, this is a 3-0 that is not as strong as most 3-0 teams are. They are rightfully heavily favored tomorrow, and there's every reason to think that's how it goes.  If BG is better than we think, this would be a good time to unveil it.

Past and Future Opponents

Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (3-0)  Beat Merrimack

Sep. 12 Nebraska (3-0) Beat North Dakota

Sep. 19 Iowa State (2-1) Beat us

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (3-0) Beat Delaware State

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (1-3) Lost to UC

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-2) Lost to NoDak State.

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-1) Beat Stony Brook

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (1-2) Smoked by Liberty

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (2-1*) Beat Rice

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (1-2) Lost to OSU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (2-1) Miracle comeback to beat Temple

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (3-0).  Beat Stonehill

MAC vs. FCS: 11-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-15

MAC vs G?: 4-6

Football Hates Me

 Bowling Green was wiped out again yesterday, this time against a P4 team, but far from a high-quality one...the Iowa State Cyclones, in the bottom part of the Big XII.

I'm not talking about not winning. I'm talking about representative games played last year against UC and Louisville, and wins over Georgia Tech and Minnesota under similar circumstances.  BG was a 23-point underdog and lost this one by 48.

Since beating Toledo, BG has lost 8 of 9.  The only win was putting a nail in UMASS' 0-12 season. 

There are 138 teams in the FBS.

BG is 135 in rushing defense and 125th in rushing offense.

BG is 132 in scoring defense and 136 in scoring offense.

BG is #135 in passing efficiency defense, #131 in TFL.

BG is the only team in the FBS that does not have at least one touchback on a kickoff.

Next up is USF, at 3-0 and the #63 FPI, according to ESPN.  BG is third from the bottom...8 of the bottom 12 are in the MAC.

The Iowa State game was close for one play.  BG scored on a nice pass to Winn Sharp, and then on the ensuing kickoff a guy named Cameron Pettaway housed it...did we know he could do that?

In the post-game, the worrisome thing is that Coach George talked about us failing on our fundamentals.  That's not actually that comforting.  Many of the guys who are playing were here for the Spring.  Between that and fall camp, we should have the fundamentals in place.  And apparently we don't.  Seems like it's the kind of thing that's tough to put together when you are 0-3.  

Here is the story of the numbers:

Statistic	Bowling Green	Iowa State
Yards per rush	3.0	7.9
Yards per completion	10.7	11.8
Completion %	40.9% (9/22)	66.7% (12/18)
Yards per play	3.6	7.9
3rd-down conversions	16.7% (2/12)	40.0% (4/10)
Red-zone efficiency	N/A (0 opportunities)	100% (3/3)
Turnovers	2	1
Special Teams Index	-9	+13
Explosive plays	4	11
Explosive-play yards	110	296

It's more one-sided than the Nebraska game.  Special teams were awful.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a new punter...Bowling Green is #113 in net punting and the punter has been mentioned in the last 2 post-game pressers, which can't be good.

Our top Dback, JoJo Johnson, is out for the year.

Novosad did play the 2nd half at QB,  Coach said that Kastantin was on an IV at half time, and they decided to see if Novosad would catch fire.  He did nothing to create a QB controversy.

I don't think the issue is at QB.  It starts up front and includes the entire defense.  Way too often there is no one in a spot someone should in...I have no idea whether they are underprepared or just not disciplined, but they are done with P4 play and will find the same problems haunting them when we get to the MAC.

It is a very difficult place for us to be.  There's nothing encouraging out there.  Coach says it's always darkest before dawn, but it keeps getting darker.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (2-0)  Beat McNeese State

Sep. 12 Nebraska (2-0) Beat us

Sep. 19 Iowa State (1-1) Lost to Iowa

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (2-0) Rallied to beat Army

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (1-1) Smoked Holy Cross

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-2) Lost big to Fresno State

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-1) Beat Stony Brook

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (1-1) Lost to FIU

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (1-1)  Beat Monmouth

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (1-1) Beat Woffrd

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (1-1) Beat Central Connecticut State

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (2-0).  Beat Sacred Heart

MAC vs. FCS: 10-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-9

MAC vs G?: 1-4

Nebraska Threshes Bowling Green

Well, that's not good at all.  I know, Nebraska is in the Big 10.  And I know this game is set up to lose. Still, Nebraska is not a powerhouse Big Ten team and we were thought to be 25 point underdogs.  We have 4 times (I think) post-Jinks won against teams when we were that kind of dog.  Further, we have had some tough battles in P4-5 games that later made us wonder why we couldn't beat Kent.

This was not that.  We doubled the point spread, and were beaten as badly as you can be in the first half of the game.  We did put together a nice drive in the 3rd quarter, but the 4th picked back up again for Big Red and the final was 56-7.  We were thumped.  For the first half, it felt like the Memphis game in Jinks' 1st season, when we gave up 70 two games in a row.  At the time, Jinks told his staff "they were lucky to still be working."

No point in going through the game narrative that we usually do.  Or even the stats, which I will anyway.   The special teams matrix is based on my system I used a few years ago, but got tired of calculating each week.  Now, AI can do it for me.  (It's a zero-based system with points for positive plays and negative points for negative plays, but average plays (like a 30-yard FG) are 0.  Full rubric here.)  The most significant special teams play was the blocked punt, where Coach said Kingston was just too slow getting the ball out of there.

Statistic	Bowling Green	Nebraska
Yards per rush	2.7	7.8
Yards per completion	8.4	10.8
Completion %	62.5%	81.3%
Yards per play	3.5	8.3
Third-down conversions	2/12 (16.7%)	5/8 (62.5%)
Red-zone efficiency	1/1 (100%)	4/4 (100%)
Turnovers	2	1
Special Teams Index	-3	+4
Explosive plays	4	12
Yards on explosive plays	60	289

No surprises here.  BG had a good completion percentage but were forced to work close to the line of scrimmage.

Coach George looked a little shell-shocked in the post-game presser.  He did not have his usual swagger, that is for sure.  He said the usual things...we will get it together, etc.  I swear he said "it's always darkest before the dawn," which is never something you want to hear.  Also, Nebraska pressured us up the middle, and he mentioned specifically that we had trouble at center and at guard.  That will need to be fixed, because every team will pressure us right up the middle.

So on we go.  It's dark, Coach was right about that.  It's Iowa State, South Florida and the Miami...an 0-5 start is certainly very possible.  Which makes 6-6, you know, hard to see.