NIU Preview for MBB

There's a long bus ride, and it's the last one for BG MBB to DeKalb--at least in MAC play.  Can you imagine driving out there for a non-conference game?

Or, maybe NIU will be back.  It's happened before.

NIU has not made the NCAA Tournament since 1996, and its last two appearances were out of other conferences.  They won an early MAC title in 1982 but have not won the MAC since.

In the 28 seasons since they returned to the MAC, they have had a winning season in MAC play three times. Their current coach is Rashon Burno, who is a Hurley guy. He's 39-85 in DeKalb.

This year, they are overachieving.  They were picked last by Blue Ribbon and the MAC pre-season poll.  They are tied for 9th and in the tournament hunt.  In the MAC, they beat CMU, WMU, and UMass, all at home.

The series with BG has been no contest.  The Falcons have won 9 out of 10, the last 3 overall and the last 5 in DeKalb.

MAC Games only.

The Huskies are interesting.  They are the number 2 team in the MAC in defensive efficiency.  They are #4 in defending the shot, #5 in forcing turnovers, and #5 in defensive rebounding.  They are #3 defending the 3FG and #8 defending the 2FG.  Their major weakness on defense is that they are #11 in allowing free throws.  

That's not great news for a Falcon team coming off one of the worst offensive games in recent memory. For the year, BG is #6 in the MAC in offensive efficiency, but they are also wildly inconsistent.  An average D completely flummoxed them in Jonesboro, and we are going to have to battle for a night-and-day recovery, or the last ride home from DeKalb could feel like forever.

NIU is good enough on defense to compete.  If only they could score.  They are last in the MAC in offensive efficiency. They score 0.98 points per possession, and the next-worst team is BSU at 1.02. 

They try the most 3FGs in the MAC.  They are last in making them.  They are #9 in 2FG.

They are #12 overall in shooting and #13 in turnovers.  That's a toxic combo.  It isn't all a disaster; they are #3 in offensive rebounds and #5 at getting to the line, though they make only 68%.

BG has been playing decent defense since the Buffalo debacle. But they were smoked on the defensive boards by A-State, which really makes it tough to get the speed game going.  BG is #2 on the defensive boards for the year and needs to get back to it. (A-State was really tall, and NIU is #314 in average height). 

BG has fallen to #7 in forcing turnovers, so they might not take as much advantage there as they'd like. 

Their leading scorer is Makhai Valentine with 14.6, shooting 48% and 35%.  He makes 83% from the line, #5 in the MAC. He's 6'3" from Missouri State.

Dylan Ducommun is their 2nd leading scorer.  He's a FR from Switzerland, and he's 6'4."  Scoring 13.3 PPG, making a rough 43% and 32%.

Taj Walters is the 3rd leading scorer at 11.6 PPG.  He's a 6'5" FR from the Bronx. He's highly efficient at 56% and 42% shooting and is #15 in the MAC in EFG. He also leads the team with 7.2 RPG. 

Gianni Cobb leads the team with 3.8 APG. 

They run a very tight 7-man rotation. They play most FR and SO, and they are the 15th youngest team in D1 ball.  In the old days, you'd think they might be on the upswing, but most of those guys won't play in a MWC game, if history is a guide.

BG needs a win here.  They are 4.5-point favorites.  We will see if they are ready to rebound or ready to pack it in.

Falcons Embarrassed in Jonesboro

Well, it was just bad news in Jonesboro yesterday.  I know it doesn't count toward the MAC standings, but it was tough to watch and should never have happened.  Just as it has for the Simon era, this team fails to produce competitive performances on a consistent basis, and that's going to make it tough to reach our goals. You need three in a row against top competition to win the MAC.

Yesterday was 100% non-competitive.  And not against a high-quality Sun Belt team, but a team that is 6-6 in their league.  We were 2.5-point dogs... not 37.

They play a multi-zone defense that can be dodgy.  But the metrics show that others have figured it out.  And Coach Simon, in the pre-game with Todd Walker, described what BG had to do to win.  And his team executed none of it.

He put it on missing shots, which certainly was a problem.  It was our worst shooting game in 10 years. But we were frozen like deer in headlights in front of their zones.  We had at least 3 shot-clock violations, a couple of which occurred without a shot even being taken.  We turned the ball over on 22% of our possessions against a team that gets after the ball.

So we knew it was coming. We had prepared a plan.  And then did nothing.  It's on everyone in the program.

The result was our worst defeat since the UT game at the end of 22.  We lost by 40.

There's no reason to delve deeper into this one.  This team has some ability and is relatively healthy. This would be the time to go after it.  But it is not happening.  Maybe all will resolve itself, but we have felt that way before. What you see out there is occasionally good enough.

It has begun to look familiar.  You know, maybe we are just one click away.  It's tough to see that out of yesterday's game.

Seven games left, and 4 at home. Except for Miami, there's not one team on there that we have not proven ourselves capable of beating or losing to. We are 5-6.  Four wins probably gets it done. So, you beat NIU and WMU...you are left with Kent, UT and UMass at home, EMU and Miami on the road.

Are there four wins in there.  My guess is yes, but it leaves us a 7 or 8 seed and one-and-done in Cleveland, with a team that had the ability to be better.  And then we can start over again.

I believe in the short term, we will play a little better.  But I have yet to see us not throw away success.

Sun Belt Part 2

 So it's the second round of the Sun Belt challenge, this time with the MAC on the road.  The impression I have is that the MAC Coaches don't really care for this arrangement.  A couple of them have said so.  One of them (I forget who) quaintly said that "the coaches wanted to make it once a year, but we were "out-voted."  Which is cute, thinking they had a vote.

If you look back at Falcon schedules, we used to regularly play non-conference games during the MAC season.  BG's legendary game with Houston at Anderson was in the MAC season.  The MAC was smaller than.  I like the Sun Belt challenge because it gives us decent D1 opponents, and my fear is that if MAC teams didn't have those games, they would be replaced by NAIA teams.  You could put the second game in December...anyway.

The MAC is going to go to a 22-game schedule relatively soon, with a full round-robin. I'd still keep the Sun Belt challenge, but maybe that's the excuse to drop it to one.

Anyway.  the MAC is the #15 conference and the Sun Belt is #20. The first round--all at MAC Schools--found the MAC going 9-4.  The Challenge was a draw last year and the Sun Belt won the first year.

Teams are paired with a comparable opponent, in theory, to help bracket chances.  Usually, that's a joke. Miami could, in fact, use a nice win, but they got paired with #165 Marshall.

BG is playing Arkansas State.  BG actually played game #2 of the Simon era and beat them at the Stroh. This is our sixth meeting with the Red Wolves, and BG leads the series 3-2, starting with a win in 1950. 

When BG played them two years ago, they had a new coach: Byron Hodgson, who had paced the MAC and SEC sidelines with Nate Oats.  After he left for South Florida, he was replaced by Ryan Pannone, who had also replaced him at Bama.

Roll Tide.

Ark State was picked #1 in Blue Ribbon and #2 in the conference poll.  They are not having that kind of year...14-10/12-10/6-6 and have lost 5 of their last 7.  They were healthy during that seven-game run, but have clearly been struggling to find their feet this year.  They've used 10 starting line-ups...the one they used last time out was #10.

They have beaten Texas State twice...that's the team BG beat in the SB-Challenge opener. (Texas State is 14-11/7-6).

One of the reasons was they picked an Oats-guy to replace an Oats-guy was that they didn't need to change styles...though not sure how much that mattered, since every single player left the program.

So, the Oats style is fast.  Ark State plays at 72 possessions, which is 19th in the country. Their adjusted offense is 1.1 and their defense is 1.11.  D1 average is 1.09.

Offensively, they shoot 44% from 3FG, which is a lot.  Sadly for them, they are bad at it, making 32% when the D1 average is almost 34%. They do make 52% from 2FG, which is a little above average.

They combine sub-par shooting with turning the ball over 20% of the time, which is #341 in the country.  They crash the boards, getting 37% of offensive rebounds, #23in the country. They are respectable at getting to the line and make 76%, which is pretty good.

On defense, they excel on the defensive boards, at 27% and #40 in the nation. They are #208 in shooting defense.  They defend the 3FG well, but are well below average on the 2FG. They are #293 in forcing turnovers and #253 in allowing FTs.

It looks to me like the key for BG starts with forcing those turnovers and being strong on the defensive boards.  If Ark State crashes and we are able to clear the boards, we should be able to get into transition with numbers.

Matt Hayman is their leading scorer. He's a transfer from Stephen F. Austin. He's a 6'5" G.  He scores 12.3 PPG in 22 minutes. He takes 31% of their shots, which is a lot, and shoots 51% and 31% on roughly even distribution. He makes 93% of his FTs.  I want Todd Walker to say he "has only missed 2 FTs all year" every time he goes to the line. He draws only 2.7 fouls per game.

Christian Harmon, a 6'5" G, a JUCO transfer.  He scores 11.8 in 27 minutes, shooting 56% and 33%, mostly on 3FGs. 

Joey Chammaa is a 5'11" G and a transfer from SD.  He missed two months in the middle of the year to injury and comes off the bench. He scores 10.3 PPG in 17 minutes.  He shoots 59% and 34%.

Chandler Jackson scores 10 PPG on 53% and 27% shooting. He also has 4.3 APG.

Their leading rebounder is Jalen Hampton, with 8.3 RPG, a 6'7" Missouri State transfer. They have a 6'10 "guy and a 7'0" who play 15 minutes per game.

Last two things. They are the #42 team in the country in height, and BG is #64. And they play a deep bench... they have 10 available players who average 14 minutes or more.

I get it.  Game doesn't mean anything.  I hope we come and try to stay sharp and get ready for the final run in MAC play.  Or...play our last terrible game of the season.

Football Finalizes HS Recruits

Wednesday was the second NSD for football.  There were four players announced, four more who self-announced (meaning, I assume, they are PWOs) and a position change.  Let's get rolling.  (h/t to @thetalontribune for tracking all this).

The four players were:

Darian Hawkins is a 3-star DL from California. He's a 6'4" LB.  He's a 3-star recruit on 247 and was apparently determined to play for a Falcon team, because his offers were Air Force and Bowling Green. He was honorable mention all-state and All-Mission League First Team and All-Area First Team (2025). 

Marceles Carey certainly has people excited.  He's 5'11" and 165 lbs and plays WR/RB.  If he reminds you of Ta'Ron Keith, a true clutch Falcon gamebreaker, then join the crowd.  He's also from the same hometown as Keith: DeLand, Fl.  He was the Orlando Sentinel Offensive Player of the Year. He had only one other D1 offer and a handful of FCS offers.  Which is fine...certainly appears to be a ballplayer.

• Rushed for 2,313 career yards and 34 touchdowns during career
• Caught 74 career passes for 1,456 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns during career
• As a senior he rushed for 1,479 yards (13.1 ypa) and 21 touchdowns, while also catching 27 passes for 693 yards and seven more scores
• Had 31 total touchdowns as a senior (21 rushing, 7 receiving, 2 INT returns, 1 PR)
• Also notched six interceptions on defense, returning two for scores and posting 40 tackles

Trent Merrell is a DL, 6'3" and 230 pounds. He's from Elyria and BG is his only D1 offer, though he had 3 reported FCS offers.  He was not ranked on 247.

He was, however, a highly recognized and productive HS player.

• Finished his career as a three-time First Team All-Conference, All-District and All-County selection (2024–26)
• Earned Third Team All-Ohio honors in 2024 and 2025, followed by Second Team All-Ohio recognition in 2026
• Helped Elyria Catholic reach the regional final in 2023
• Recorded 62 tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks during the 2025 season
• Posted 53 tackles, 25.5 tackles for loss, five sacks, two forced fumbles and two blocked field goals in 2026

Cameron Simmons is 6'3" and 245 and from Sugar Hill, GA. He's a highly recruited, 3-star player.  He had offers from Wake Forest, App State, Georgia State, Arkansas State, Southern Miss and Troy. His Father is 15-year NFL veteran and BG Assistant Clyde Simmons. Posted 81 tackles, 9.0 TFLs and 5.0 sacks as a senior in 2025 as Buford won MaxPreps National Championship.  He also helped lead Buford to the 6A state title, and all-region honors.

The FR class (get to the PWOs in a second) has 25 players.  247 ranks it as the best class in the MAC. CMU was second--and had 38 commits.

It reflects a philosophy of HS first recruiting that Eddie has talked about, as well as the dude from UT and we can see it in CMU.  I'm still not sure how that works, but I'm guessing those guys know what they are doing.

According to rankings, which we don't believe and yet we talk about them all the time, TE Kentrell White is the most highly ranked player we ever recruited.  OT Travis Robertson was #3, QB Jarin Mock is #4  and TE Maddox Hunsted is #7.  (Full bios, etc, available here).

So, after a disappointing season, we were excited to see what Eddie could do with a full season to recruit.  We are seeing it.  Obviously, it will need to translate to wins.

By position:

QB:  1

RB: 2

OL: 3

WR: 3

TE: 4 (Ay yi yi.  Honestly though, the new trend seems to be 13-personnel. And QB Carson Melvin moved from QB to TE).

Offensive total: 13

DL: 6

LB: 3

DB: 3

Defensive total:  12

So, a few other players who committed but were not in BG's announcement.

Carson Lovett is an ATH from Cass Tech, Detroit's D1 football factory.  (Alma mater to Diana Ross and John DeLorean).  He's where stars are funky.  No stars, but offers from Marshall, Louisville, Akron, CMU, Charlotte, Kent, Miami and UMass in FBS. He's listed at 6'1" and 205 pounds.  I don't see any other numbers or stats, except that he was an integral part of Cass Tech's state runner-up team.

Caleb Moyer is a QB from Wapakoneta and is one of those really interesting players.  He was an absolute stud in HS. He was Ohio NW District Offensive POY and first-team All-Ohio.  Coach's kid. And a winner:  they won 44 games in his time at Wapak. And yet, Bowling Green was his only offer. He's 6'2" so size shouldn't be the issue. He's from DIII, which is out of 7 (or VII) total), so not that small a school.  None of that will matter come August.  We've had guys like this shine before.

John Kolarchik is an OL from Orchard Lake St. Mary's. He's 6'6" and 318 pounds. He had offers from Wayne State, and a handful of other smaller schools.  He did get a PWO offer from OU.  That HS is a DII power in Michigan, and they won two state titles while Kolarchik was there. 

Lastly is Dylan Dreasky.  He's really interesting.  A 3-star ranked recruit, he received only one offer.  He is from Linden, MI and lists himself as a QB, WR, S.  Which makes you wonder if he's going to be moved to another position at some point.  He's described online as an explosive playmaker.  Will be fun to watch him.

So there you have it.  Coming up soon, I will look at how we look in the various position groups, with a special focus on the OL, which at this point is dancing with the ones already in the room (for the most part).

As always, you can dig in yourself here.  

Falcon MBB Coast to Easy Win

That's what that is supposed to look like.

BG took on Ball State, a team in the MAC that they should beat, especially at home.  BG never trailed, dominated on both ends of the floor, and rolled to a 25-point victory that was the biggest of the Simon Era.

BG led by 10 for the last 23 minutes.  It was never closer than 13 in the second half.

It was a win BG badly needed.  At 5-6 in MAC play, they need to stack some wins together.  Sadly, having lost opportunities against UB and CMU, the road will be a little rougher.  They have @NIU next after the Sun Belt, and have Toledo, Kent, Miami, UMass on the schedule, along with WMU and EMU.  The good news is that they play 4 of the 6 at home.

Again, qualifying for the tournament is the minimum.  You'd like to get to #6 to avoid MU or UA in the first round...although with Miami, we would have the chance to right a quarter-century-old wrong.

BG scored 1.23 points per possession, their 4th-best D1 game of the year.  They allowed .83 points per possession, their fifth-best D1 game of the season.  That's what we're talking about...that team has showed itself from time to time this year...but needs to stack games like this together.

Coach said they played the "web" zone defense for the whole game — that's a D they created out of necessity last year due to injuries and the need to hide Marcus Johnson.

It was BG's best shooting game of the year (D1), but FWIW, better than they shot against Bethany and Siena Heights. That's 60% on 2FG and 50% on 3FG. Meanwhile, BSU shot 43% on 53% and 19%.  BG destroyed BSU on the boards, and free throw attempts were almost the same, but BG was +6 when making 14 of 15.  Coach Simon rolled his eyes when he talked about how many FTs they have shot in practice.

Ball State actually won the turnover battle.

BG also had much more balanced scoring.  It was nice to have everyone working on it, rather than Campbell being forced to shoot every time. 

In fact, Josiah Shackelford led the scoring with 21 on 4 of 8 and 3 of 5 shooting.  He made 4-4 at the line and had 6 rebounds.  He was back starting, as well as Thomas, with Glover and Ruffin coming off the bench.  

BG actually started a small lineup with no center, though Goins and Glover played 15 minutes each.

Speaking of Goins, he had his best game in BG.  He absolutely abused Mason Jones in the post, scoring 10 points on 5 of 7 shooting, adding 5 rebounds.  Coach said Goins has completely transformed his body since he came to BG.  Also, he's got a 3FG game.  Would be huge to see him contribute.

Wol had 14.  He had been slumping, but went 1-2 and 4-7 in this one.

Campbell had 12 but was highly efficient, making 2-3 from 2FG and his only 3FG and all 5 FTs, to go with 6 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals but 5 turnovers.

Glover had 7 rebounds in 15 minutes.

One other thing...he didn't score, but Thomas seems to just solidify things for us.  He's coming off an injury.  He was +23.

So, one we go.  Now the mid-season Sun Belt game, which apparently no one wants to play....followed by the long ride to DeKalb.  Consistency is what we need. Let's have a good ride home.

Ball State MBB Preview

It's a cold winter, and a cold month or so for the men's basketball team, which has lost three in a row and 5 out of the last 7.  BG and UB are tied for the last playoff spot, with Ball State a half-game behind.

It's not looking great right now.

At one point, Ball State was a MAC basketball power.  From 1981 to 2000, they appeared in the NCAA Tournament seven times in 19 years.  That includes a Sweet 16 appearance.  It was a regular thing, and they had the best fan base in the MAC.  Since then, not so much.  They have not played in the MAC title game since 2000.

Michael Lewis is their current coach and is in his fourth year.  He has losing records the last 2 seasons and this year they are 7-14/5-14/3-6.  They started with a KenPom of 256, and now it is 309.

They were picked 8th in the MAC and 11th in Blue Ribbon. They lost their first 5 MAC games this year, then rallied to beat OU, CMU, and NIU, before losing to UT last time out to snap the streak.

Ball State has won 6 of the last 10 over BG, though the Falcons are 3-1 in the last 4 and the last 2 at the Stroh.

BG is a 12.5-point favorite. Dang.

They have had at least 3 players miss significant time.

This sets up very much like the CMU game.  (All Stats MAC ONLY). BSU is #10 on offense and #11 on defense.  On defense, they are last in allowing the shot, last in defending the 3FG, and 10th in defending the 2FG.  There's no reason BG shouldn't make shots against this team...

There are obstacles.  Beyond that, BSU is solid... they lead the MAC in forcing turnovers and are #3 in keeping teams off the line and #7 in defensive boards. (BG was getting to the line a lot earlier in the year, but in their last four losses, they have been under 25%.  The D1 average is 35%.)  Last FT trivia...BSU earns the bad luck award...they are last in FT% against, at 81%.

If BG is ready to defend again, they should be able to handle the Cards.  They are last in EFG...and last in making 2FGs and 8th in 3FGs.  They take an average number of 3FGs.  They are also last in offensive rebounding, so if there are misses, you hope there are chances to run.  The fewer half-court possessions BG has, the better. BSU is #1 at taking care of the ball, #7 at getting to the line, and #4 at FT shooting.

 They are led by Armoni Zeigler, who transferred from St. Peter's. He is scoring 17.2 PPG.  He's not efficient...making 46% on 2FG and 32% on 3FG.  He does make 84% at the line (#8), and he draws 5 fouls a game. He also leads the team with 5.4 RPG and has 30 turnovers, which, given the amount of time he has the ball, isn't as much as it seems.

Davion Hill is scoring 14.1 PPG. He transferred from NW Florida State College. (Also Trey Diggs). He's 6'2" and makes 58% from 2FG and 37% from 3FG. He takes excellent care of the ball.

They are not a big team...#328 in average height.  They play 8 players for 10 minutes or more, though with some injuries. They had a full lineup at UT, except for Joey Hart, who has not played since 12/20.

No regroup in Mt. Pleasant

 We were hoping to see a re-group yesterday in Mt. Pleasant.  Instead, we settled into 7th place.

BG did seem to play better defense, but they played the flattest and most listless game in years. And they dropped a game that you need to win to compete in this conference.  It's no mystery that yesterday's performance was not competitive.

After a rough start, BG led by 14 with 5 minutes left to play.  We led by 12 at the half and still led by 8 with 4 minutes gone in the first half.  At that point, CMU went on a 15-2 run and took the lead with 9 minutes left to play.  BG was up 5 with 6 minutes to play--on their 2nd 3FG of the game. CMU took the lead back with 4 minutes to play and the game was tied with 1:50 left and BG's ball.

BG missed a 3FG, and CMU turned the ball over.  Still tied, :58 to play.  BG is fouled.  Unfortunately, it's Glover, and he missed both of the FTs.  (Hard to have him out there late in games). BUT WAIT!  BG gets the rebound...and Campbell missed 2 FG.

Then the key sequence happened.  First, Adley got into the paint and hit a 2FG with :33 left, then Towns turned it over with :23 left, and Phat Phat made a 2FG, and CMU was up 4, and the die was cast.  BG hit a 3FG to make it one and had a 3FG to win, but it didn't go down.

BG was simply miserable shooting.  BG scored .84 points per possession, their worst offensive game of the season by a significant amount.  Our last games that were worst were in Simon's first year. BG's EFG was 39%...their previous lowest this year was 45%. We shot 39% from 2FG--worst this year--and 25% from 3FG, sadly only our 7th worst.

Turnovers and offensive rebounds were pretty even and made-FT's were even as well.  CMU didn't shoot a lot better--they only made 19% from 3FG, but they made 52% on 2FG and that was the difference.

It was an ugly, hard-to-watch performance by the Falcons.

Javonte Campbell continues to carry this team.  During a lot of possessions, he appeared to be the only Falcon moving his feet.

He scored 21, but they made him work for it.  He was 8 of 20 on 2FG, 5 of 7 at the line, 4 assists, 4 steals, and 2 TO.

Josiah Shackleford had 17, but 4 of 10 and 3 of 5 from 3FG.  He made 3 of BG's 4 3FGs, with Aidan Goins making the other.  Glover is efficient with 4 of 8 on 2FG and 6 rebounds.  Basically, I don't like to call guys out. If you played on our team and I didn't mention your name, we aren't getting anything out of you on offense.

Nathan Claerbaut was a real difference.  He blocked shots, altered shots, and has a really soft touch in the rim.  Look for him to move up next year.

So Ball State is next.  BG is a half-game ahead of Ball State to be out of the playoff mix.  BG has lost 3 straight and 5 of 7.  Last year, we had injuries...we are mostly healthy this year.  It's off track right now.