BG MBB Closes Fast to Clinch Trip to Cleveland

 Just when it was looking like BG was putting another lackluster performance on the court, they turned it on and ran UMass out of the Stroh Center on Saturday, clinching a trip back to Cleveland.

UMass started hot, and BG responded...the game was tied with 12, 11, and 9 minutes left in the first.  Then BG went into one of its funks, giving up a 14-0 run to the Minutemen.  (Actually heard behind me at the Stroh:  "What's a Minuteman?")

BG battled back, chipping it to 6 before heading into the locker room down 9.  UMass shooting 58% and BG shooting 35% overall, and 3-11 from 3FG.  Only a +7 FT advantage had the game close.

The second half was a role reversal.  BG came out on a 9-2 run.  The game was tied with 13 minutes left. The game was tied with 10 minutes left, and BG was down 1 with about 8 to play.

It's 52-51.  Coach Gallagher, after the game, said that BG threw their zone away and went to a man-to-man, which seemed to wake everyone up after they had been kind of passive in the zone.

From 8:19 to 4:34, a 20-2 run.  That's 20 points in less than 4 minutes.  In all, for the last 8 minutes, BG outscored UMass 30-10 to win 81-62 and clinch the next round.

For that 20-point run, BG was 2-3 from 2FG, 5 of 6 from 3, and 1 FT.  No turnovers.  Thomas had 9.  Shackelford had 9.  Campbell had 2.  Meanwhile, UMass was 1-2 from 2FG, 0-4 from 3FG, 2 turnovers and only 1 OREB on those missed shots.

Coach Gallagher flagged this after the game.  Keeping UMass off the offensive boards was key, and BG did that, with a heroic effort by Sam Towns, more on that later.

BG scored 1.24 points per possession and held UMass to .95, both of which are winning numbers. BG shot 55% and 39% and made 18 of 21 at the line after a marathon three-day FT shooting regimen.  That's +10 at the line.  BG had 14% turnovers, UMass had 15%. BG had 29% on the offensive boards and 20% for the Minutemen.

UMass shot 50% from 2FG and 30% from 3FG.

Javonte Campbell had 20 points in his last game at the Stroh.  He left to a standing ovation from the BG faithful.  He scored 1,000 points in two seasons and leads the nation in steals.  He's been a great Falcon. Those 20 points came on 8 of 14 2FG shooting and 4 of 5 at the line. Add 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 3 turnovers...and handling the ball as BG ran the clock.  True warrior.

Speaking of warriors, if all you care about is scoring, Sam Towns was terrible.  He had 4 points on 1 of 5 and 0 of 5 shooting, and 2-2 at the line.  Maybe you'd be interested in 15 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 block, 3 steals, and 1 turnover?  You would.  Coach Simon said after the game that he gets rebounds, he has no business getting.

Shackelford had 16 in 21 minutes. 1-2 and 4-6, 2-2 at the line, and 3 3FGs in the game's decisive run. Justin Thomas had 15, on 2 of 2 and 3 of 3 shooting, and 2 of 3 at the line.  Can't get more efficient.  Also had 5 rebounds.

It was a great way to end the year at the Stroh.  Once we hit that run, the place was rocking and we got it done.

So here's where it stands.  We are off on Tuesday.  Here is what we have.

We could finish 5th... we beat EMU, OU loses out (and they don't look great), and BG wins the tiebreaker.  We are in 6th and in a good position to hold it.  We don't have the tiebreaker against either CMU or UB, so we need a win over EMU or a loss by both CMU and UB to make 6th.  You figure Akron beats CMU and UB loses @UT....and you figure we beat EMU.

If it's 5th we play UT.  If it's 6th we play Kent and stay out of Miami's half of the bracket, but play a team that has beaten us 14 straight times.

Falcon MBB Loses to WMU in Poor Focus

Oof.  That one will leave a mark.  BG simply laid an egg against a team that almost everyone else in the MAC has beaten this year.  We played a terrible defensive team and scored 1.08 points per possession. We played a decent offensive team and allowed 1.21 points per possession.  This was a team playing without their #2 scorer/assist leader and without one of their best rebounders.  And it was at home.  And they beat us by 9.

At this point in the season, this is who we are.  We can beat Toledo or K-State, but this was our worst loss of the season, to the #277 team in the country. The next worst was CMU at #270, but that was at least a road game.  In fact, following the UT game, we have lost 3 in a row. 

Coach said it was a lack of focus.  He was also very disappointed.  He said that we practiced well, and just came out and played without focus.  That's certainly evident on defense, but also on FTs, where BG only made 67% in a foul-heavy game.

The good news is that the middle of this conference is a pretty safe place to be.  BG has to beat out 5 teams to be assured of going to Cleveland.  We have 2 games left, most other teams have 3.  We can't finish with fewer than 7 wins...which means we will finish ahead of EMU....and Ball State and NIU, who we own tie-breakers over.  One more win assures we finish ahead of WMU, which makes it 4, and then the best UMass could do would be to tie us, and we would have the tie-breaker with the win tomorrow.  So that's five.

We are currently in 6th, which would be a beneficial finish.  Finishing there is another matter.  To do that, we would need to beat out 7 teams...if CMU doesn't win out, then BG would beat them out, which leaves UB, which has an easier schedule coming home and a tie-breaker over BG.  If both teams win out, then UB is 6th.  If UB wins 2, BG needs 2 to finish 6th.  If BG wins only one, then UB would have to lose 2, which I would doubt.

In the other direction, BG could still tie OU or UT.  Not likely, but not impossible.  BG would win 2, and either OU or UT would lose out...OU has Toledo in Athens, then @Umass and MU.  UT has OU in Athens, @Miami and UB at home.  More likely for OU to lose out.

Anyway, in general, not a terrible season, but another season doing permutations for how to finish 8th and looking for a short stay in Cleveland.  I know it's tough in this era, but everyone else has the same problem...except perhaps Miami and Akron and Kent.  You are who your records says you are. I love this team. 

BG MBB Needs Win over WMU

Down to 2 weeks and 3 games to play. BG sits in 6th place, still in decent shape to get to Cleveland, and while anything can happen, BG is 0-5 against the three teams you'd need to beat to win that thing, and you'd need to go 3-0 in 3 days on a neutral floor.

The next one is WMU.  This is a should-win and pretty much a must-win. WMU is tied for last with Ball State.  Their KenPom is 286, and a loss here would be BG's worst loss of the season.  They are 9-18/7-18/3-11. Their MAC wins are over EMU twice and CMU.  

BG beat them by 18 earlier this year in Kzoo. Bowling Green had an average offensive night, but held WMU to .81 PPP, 43% and 23% shooting, 23% turnovers, and even held the board-crashing Broncos to 28% on the offensive boards.

The first game kind of flipped things around, because you would have expected BG to exploit WMU's putrid defense... instead, BG's defense dominated an average MAC offense.

WMU is last in the MAC in defensive efficiency.  They are 11th in defending the shot, 12th in forcing turnovers, and 11th in their defensive boards. They are #12 against the 2FG and #9 against the 3FG.

They are 7th on offense. They are 9th in 3FG attempted and 12th in 2FG%.  They are #7 on 3FGs and #10 in overall shooting.

They are #3 at taking care of the ball and #3 on the offensive boards.  They don't generate FTs and make only 72% of their shots at the line.

BG should be able to excel at both ends against these guys.  I suspect WMU will pack it in on us...as teams usually do in MAC play, so we are going to make some jumpers.  It can be hit or miss for us, as you know.

Justice Williams was their only player in double figure scorer in the first game.  He's the guy who started at LSU and ended up at WMU, but was once a big-time player.  He didn't begin playing until mid-season due to eligibility concerns.  He started fast and has slowed down, now scoring 12 PPG for his last 5 MAC games. He is the #15 3FG shooting in the MAC and #2 at the line,

Jayden Brewer scores 11 PPG. He shoots 48% and 26% and leads the team with 5.8 RPG.  He is #5 at drawing fouls but only makes 62% from the line. He also blocks a shot a game.

Jalen Griffith is their other double figure scorer.  He didn't play last time out, no idea what is going on. What's weird is he also didn't play in the first matchup with BG. 

This is one BG needs to close out.  They finish with UMass and then @EMU. Two wins, and they are in for sure... maybe one.

Miami University Too Much for BG MBB

BG lost to the better team.  That's just a very good basketball team. It was better than the first meeting, where the Redhawks blew the lead over 20 in the first half and coasted home.  In this one, the first 8 minutes were very competitive, with 11 lead changes and a lot of effective scoring.  The problem is that you have to be able to keep it up for 40 minutes.  From about 11 minutes to 4 minutes, MU went on a 21-3 run that essentially decided the game.

BG didn't fold.  They would put some things together and get the lead down to 10, and then MU would come down and answer with a 3FG.  It got as close as 8, but not closer.

The news from the bracketology guys is "good."  Good if you just think Miami should be in the tourney.  "Good" if they have to play a play-in game.

I will say this, they do not seem to be playing tight.  With what they have on the line, they seem loose and relaxed.  It is something to watch.

BG didn't have a good offensive game, but it wasn't terrible.  They scored 1.04 points per possession.  Obviously, not nearly enough. MU packed their defense in, and it did seem to work.  BG made 40% from 3FG, which is good, but only 46% from 2FG. In fact, BG was 55% inside the restricted area, while MU made 69%. We were also 5 of 14 in the non-restricted paint...below 50% inside the paint.

To be sure, there was lots of traffic due to things being packed in.  We tried 39% from 3FG, our most in MAC play.  I don't think we're set up for more.

I know this is illogical, but finishing at the rim has been a program issue spanning hundreds of players. I remember Orr saying we had to learn to make "zero footers."

Miami scored 1.23 points per possession... which is their 10th-best in D1 games this year, FWIW.  Almost exactly what they shot in the first game.

Their EFG was 63%, making 61% from 2FG and 43% from 3FG...get this...they have been BETTER THAN THAT 10 times this year in D1 games.

They took good care of the ball and got to the line a lot.  They don't crash the boards, and why would you?  Get back and keep the game in the half-court.  BG was 11 of 15 at the line, and MU was 18 of 27, which is poor for them.

I have to say, you know, if you read here, I am a metrics guy.  But the eye test?  This team could be a Sweet 16 team.

Javonte Campbell had 24 points.  He was 7 of 15 and 2 of 3 from the field, 4 of 6 at the line, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 3 turnovers.

Mayer Wol came on late, scoring 15 of 3 of 6 and 3 of 6 shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 turnovers.

Shackelford had scored 12 on 1 of 4 and 3 of 5 shooting. Towns and Glover had 6 rebounds each.

So, the beat goes on.  BG has three games left.  WMU, UMass and @EMU.  With two wins, they go to 9 wins and almost certainly make the tournament--in fact, that could be certain by the end of today.  The WMU game is an absolute must-win, though.

Football Update

 Probably time for a football update.

The biggest news is that Sacramento State has joined the Mid-American Conference.  There's been a lot of debate on it...it is one of those situations where more than one thing can be true.

In my opinion:

• It is objectively ridiculous.
• In a world where eligibility has no meaning, guys are playing for 7 years, etc...the word ridiculous has almost been stripped of its meaning. The move makes "sense."

In Logan Roy's words, the MAC "screwed them out."  What started at $10M ended up at an $18M dowry, plus paid charter flights to Sacramento, and we don't pay them anything from our conference share.

Boy, did Sac State want this.  Just amazing.  It's football only.  And only for five years.  Rather than an exit fee, there's an expiration date.  My guess is that Sac State hopes to go elsewhere in year 6, but if they want to stay, the MAC will get another chance to squeeze the IV tube.

Something else is revealed, I think. There's a general belief that the MAC is at risk...as is every part of the existing status quo.  Even $18M is 4% of the MAC's overall athletic spending.  Some have said it stabilized the conference...and my guess is that means keeping Akron and Kent on the football field.

Tom Hanks went to Sacramento State.

Their coach is Alonzo Carter, who was once a backup dancer for MC Hammer.  When BG plays them, we will have an MC Hammer dancer and a Broadway Performer on the sidelines.

In other news, DB Coach Derrick Jackson left the BG staff to go to Louisville.  He was a Loeffler holdover.  It's too bad.  I think our D-backs have generally punched above their weight.  No word on the new coach.  It will be interesting to see whether Coach George has a network large enough to keep the staff stocked.  That's an open question right now.

Coach was interviewed by David Briggs.  The gist of the article was that even though BG brought back only 2 starters, Coach George feels like we got better.

What was that about the definition of ridiculous?

I've looked at the players who came in...there was one position group where everybody left, and not a lot was done to bring in transfers, and that's the O-line.

For context, 760 snaps was a full season for BG last year.  Here are the career snap counts for the returning Falcon linemen.  Sanchez came from Northern Arizona, where most of his snaps also occurred.  Thomas and Bolyn saw their only real action last year. 

When Loeffler came in, we had inexperienced and young lines.  These guys are at least a little older.

What I hear is Bolyn is going to play C.

In terms of incoming,  I believe Travis Robertson will start. He's a true FR and a 3-star who committed to BG, switched to UCLA before switching back.  He's ranked as one of our top recruits ever at BG. He's an early enrollee, and I believe he will start.

As for the other position, who knows?  One of the other guys above?  There was one transfer,  Gabe Funk from App State, where he did not play. He was a two-star out of HS, with offers from most MAC teams.

It may be archaic, but BG has re-tooled at QB and TE...maybe at WR, and Austyn Dendy is back.  None of that will matter if we can't block.

I know the staff knows that, so they were either comfortable working with what they had or couldn't do any better.  If Novosad spends the entire season running for his life and our backs are being hit behind the line of scrimmage, we'll know the answer.

MAC MBB Permutations

 

Oh Boy! Undefeated Redhawks At Millett

Well, the Falcons drop into the national spotlight tonight, battling the undefeated Miami Redhawks in what will be a rocking Millett Hall.

Miami might be having the most remarkable season in MAC history.  It is certainly the most successful.  Nobody goes undefeated anymore.  It's just been incredible to watch.  What an experience.

And yet, I think they feel like nothing's been accomplished yet.  Don't get me wrong--in a sane, just world, they would be locks for an at-large bid to the tournament even if they don't go undefeated, even if they lose more than one. But they can't feel that way, because teams with, for example, 30-3 records have been left out before.

Lunardi has them at #11, which is right where he has the play-in games, meaning they are ranked right at the cut line.  The problem is the pre-MAC schedule, which was among the lowest in D1.  To me, at 25-5 that would make a difference.  They have carried it through conference play... so far... and they should be playing in the tourney.

I'd like to take you back to March 5, 2000.  Quarter-finals.  BG is 22-6 and #1 seed. Having a special season. They are up 3, and time is running out.  Jason Grunkemeyer hit a 35-footer at the buzzer to force OT, in which BG scored only 2 points and lost.  No at-large bid came for the Falcons.  It is probably the greatest heartbreak in our program's history.  It's basketball's Fat Punter.

Let's return the favor. It has been long enough.

Today, Jason is the Deputy AD at Maine, btw.

BG played them back in the dark days of December, between Christmas and New Year.  The final deficit was 10, but the game was not close.  Miami ripped off a 29-4 run, led by 26 at the half and by 17 with 10 left.

Miami is just a scoring machine.  They are #1 in the MAC in offensive efficiency, #1 in shooting, and #3 in the country.  They take 46% of their FGA from 3FG and make 37% (#4 in MAC, #13 in D1) and they lead the make with 64% on 2FG, #3 in the country).

They combine that with being 4th in taking care of the ball and 2nd at getting to the line, where they make 78%, #2 in the MAC.  That's enough to be a formidable scoring machine. The only thing they aren't great at is offensive rebounds, where they rank #12, undoubtedly because they don't crash the boards.

They are #3 in defense. They are #7 in defending the shot, #6 against the 3FG, and #8 on the 2FG. They are 5th at forcing turnovers, #4 on the defensive boards, and #3 at keeping teams off the line.

This is just a locked-down team.  BG's going to have to play great in every phase.  They are going to have to play great defense and make some shots.  Probably a lot.

Peter Suder is their leading scorer with 16.5 PPG on 59%/37%/78% shooting.  He adds 5.2 RPG and 64 assists.  He had 17, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in the first game.

Brant Byers scores 15.9 PPG, making 62%/43%/80%.  He's #1 in the MAC in total shooting, which is those three added up. He had 17 and 6 in the first game.

Eian Elmer is scoring 14.3 PPG on 67%/43%/77%, #2 in total shooting.  He leads the team with 5.8 RPG.  He is #1 in the MAC in EFG%. 

Luke Skaljac scores 13 PPG on 65%/31%/75% shooting. He has 62 assists. He scored 15 PPG and 5 assists in the first game.

Antwone Woolfork scores 10.5 and leads the MAC in 2FG at 75%.  He scored 14 in the first game without missing a FG or FT attempt.