Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Falcons with Afternoon Tilt against Vikings

So, coming up on Wednesday afternoon, BG wraps up play for 2015 with a road set up against Cleveland State.  It is also BG's last non-MAC D1 game of the season.

It is BG's 3rd straight game against a Horizon opponent and BG has lost both of the first two.  The game starts at 1 pm, which is unusual for a weekday, but Falcon fans can follow that one and be done well in advance of the Go Daddy Bowl.

The Falcons and Vikings matched up in '12 and '14, with the Vikes winning in '12 in Cleveland and BG winning last year at the Stroh.

CSU is 4-7 on the year and 3-7 against D1 teams.  They are coming off their biggest win of the year, a 2-point victory at home against an always tough Belmont team. They have lost four times to MAC teams--albeit among the better MAC teams--Kent, Ohio, @Toledo and Akron (n).  Two of those were at home, however.  Besides Belmont, they beat @Loyola, ILL and Rider.

They were picked to finish #7 in the Horizon.

So, in terms of profiles, this team matches relatively closely with Wright State.  The Vikings are a poor offensive team, with .94 points per possession.  After letting the Raiders score at will, BG's defense is at a season-worst .99 points per possession, which is approaching the national average.  Let's hope that after seeing films of the Wright State mess, the defense is ready to hold CSU down around their average.  On the other side, they are also a slightly below average defensive team while BG is about at the national average

As with most teams, there are not a huge number of mysteries as it relates to why they aren't scoring.  They are poor shooting team, hitting 40% of their overall FGs and 32% of their 3FGs, both below average.  They also don't shoot the 3 much...they are 289th in the country in made 3s.  As you can see, they also struggle a little bit with turnovers.  They are very good on the offensive boards--among the better teams BG has played, and this will be a key battle, and they don't get to the line very much...only 312th in the nation.  They are also making only 66%

Flipping things around, they allow 46% FGs, which is worse than average.  They defend the perimeter very well, however, allowing only 29% of made 3FGs.  Still, overall, if you can get the ball inside you can score on these guys, based on their EFG%.  They like to force turnovers and are pretty good at it, if not great, and they are poor on the defensive boards though that is something BG has failed to take advantage of typically.  Finally, much like Wright State, they give up a ton of FTs.  They typically give up about 6 more than they take per game and commit 5 additional fouls per game.

Their leading score is a freshman, Rob Edwards.  He is a 6'3" G who went to Cass Tech and was one of the top 10 recruits in Michigan.  He is scoring 11.7 PPG on 45% shooting.  The second leading scorer is Demonte Flannigan, a 6'7" JR who scores 10.7 PPG on 46% shooting and also leads the team with 5 rebounds per game.  Andre Yates, a JR G, scores 10.4 PPG on 38% shooting.

Their assist leader is Myles Hamilton, with 3 per game.

This is another young team, they have only one senior on the roster.

It will be interesting to see.  This is a tough road game for BG, and based on the previous 2 results, I think they might be challenged.  On the other hand, the game is far from unwinnable and if they can patch the holes that were exposed in Dayton, it could happen.

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