Permutations, Friday Update

Team	MAC Losses	Week of 11/10	Week of 11/17	Week of 11/24
Akron	3		@Ohio	@Temple
Buffalo	2		@BG	Kent
BG	3		Buffalo	Toledo
Temple	4		EMU	Akron
Miami	5		@Toledo	@Ohio
Kent	4		NIU	@Buffalo
Ohio	5		Akron	@Miami

Well, we got what we needed last night. I didn't see the game, but it seemed like an absolute thriller and it must be a heart-breaking defeat for Akron.

Back to our chart. Everybody plays the same number of games, so the number of losses will get us to where we need to be. You can look here for the actual tiebreakers, but, for now, we're going to not go any deeper than head-head, and we're not going to figure out what might happen in a four-loss tie.

Scenario #1: BG Wins Out:

• After all this, it has come to this. Bowling Green is again in control of its own destiny.
• Win two games, and we'll all be heading to Ford Field on December 4.
• If this happens, BG would have 3 losses, as would Buffalo and Akron. These are both teams BG would have beaten, and we would get the tiebreaker.

The Temple wild card.

There's an additional wild card. We don't play Temple. So, let's say we end up in a tie with Temple. The tie breaker is the record against the next highest ranked team. This can't happen at 3 losses now, and at 4, is likely to be a multi-team tie.

Could BG win the East with 4 losses?

The answer is, uh, yeah, it could happen....actually, all I really did was find one way for it to happen. There may be others. Wins in orange.

Team	MAC Losses	Week of 11/10	Week of 11/17	Week of 11/24
Akron	3		@Ohio	@Temple
Buffalo	2		@BG	Kent
BG	3		Buffalo	Toledo
Temple	4		EMU	Akron
Miami	5		@Toledo	@Ohio
Kent	4		NIU	@Buffalo
Ohio	5		Akron	@Miami

You can see what this scenario requires....

That would leave BG, Akron and Buffalo with 4, losses and and everyone else with 5 or more. Based on this scenario, BG would win the tiebreaker.

You know, its not very likely.

Its very simple, the winner of the BG-Buffalo game is in the driver's seat for the East Title. Actually, Buffalo would clinch the title with a win, while BG would still need to (probably) go to Toledo and win, though there are other ways it could happen.

The 4-loss scenarios do matter...I'm not sure any team on this list can play well enough to win out.