Miami Preview

 And on we go.  We are one-third of the way through the year, and winless.  Yet every year brings this kind of reset...we start MAC play.  If things turn around, we can forget about the slow start.  And the MAC is where we are supposed to be able to compete.  It has been 11 years since we hoisted the trophy or played for it.

Miami is first up.  The MAC seems to be lining up into haves and have-nots, and I fear Miami is in the first group and we are in the second.  They supposedly pay their players competitive rates, and they have played in the last 3 MAC title games, winning one of them.

We did not play them last year.  After the Big Ben season, they were pretty average for a few years, but things have changed since Chuck Martin arrived.  Miami has won 6 of 8 vs. BG in that time, and BG's last win in Oxford was a shocking 37-29 win in 2017.  Miami won the last meeting, 28-12 at the Doyt...a division title was at stake, but Loeffler's Falcons could not hold serve, and Miami moved to the final.

Defense has been Miami's calling card.  Over the last 5 years, they have been in the top 3 in the MAC in scoring defense, while ranking in the top 5 in offense only once in that period.

Things have been a little different this year, but they could still change in MAC play.  They are 2-2. They have an easy win over Holy Cross, and a thrilling homecoming win over UConn, led by a backup QB and a FR kicker cashiering the winning FG. They lost big to Pitt (59-14) and lost a shootout, 35-31, to UC.

They are #88 in SP+.  BG, the MAC's only winless team, is #136, ahead of only ULM and Charlotte. They are 13.5-point favorites.

That's with David McComb, their Kansas transfer star QB, #2 passer in the MAC, is out for the season.  So, down your starting QB, still a 14-point favorite.

Their backup is Caleb Havener, a JUCO transfer.  He had big numbers there and was 3-3 leading Miami's winning drive against UConn.

They rank #4 in scoring in the MAC this year and #2 in yards per play at 6.8. Here's where the QB injury could be trouble...they are #11 in running the ball to date and #2 in passing efficiency.  They are relying on passing, and if they struggle to do that, they present a different team.  

They are #3 on 3rd down, which is a force multiplier.  They have 8 TDs and 3 FGs on 12 red-zone attempts.

On paper, everything is a mismatch with the BG defense after Nebraska and Iowa State.  That said, BG showed strong defense last week, and if it continues, this becomes a more winnable proposition.  Assuming BG's offense doesn't do a 180, its defense will need to compete in any game this year.  BG will be without Myles Bradley, who had four sacks against USF.

Speaking of sacks, Miami has allowed six sacks on 112 attempts.

Miami is -1 on turnovers.

Defensively, Miami is #7 in scoring defense, #7 in yards per rush allowed, and #9 in passing efficiency defense.  Ordinarily, this might be viewed as an opportunity for BG, but it's going to take a surprising performance for BG to capitalize on this.  MU allows 66% completions, has only 1 INT, and allows 12.1 yards per completion.

They rank #7 in defending 3rd down and have allowed 10 TDs on 11 red-zone attempts.

Special teams-wise, their kicking has struggled. (Highly unusual for Miami). Their original kicker was 2-6 with a long of 24, so they brought in Brady Stidham to nail the winner (from 33) against UConn.  The original kicker (McLaughlin) is still listed at the top of their depth chart.  BG is the only team that hasn't missed a FG this year.

Miami would have to have a punter named Pierse, yes spelled with the "S." Miami is #9 in net punting, while BG is last.

In the return game, Scoop Smith is #2 in the nation in Kickoff returns, averaging 44 with one TD. Their punt return is negligible.

We would be remiss not to mention the insane history between these two schools.  Miami has dominated the series, amid crazy games like the last one on Doytgrass, the Fog Bowl, the 4th down call, it goes on.  There was one year when Miami's long snapper put three of them out of the end zone.

You get the idea.