Permutations Sunday Update

Team	MAC Losses	Week of 11/10	Week of 11/17	Week of 11/24
Akron	2	Buffalo	@Ohio	@Temple
Buffalo	2	@Akron	@BG	Kent
BG	3		Buffalo	Toledo
Temple	3	@Kent	EMU	Akron
Miami	4	Ball State	@Toledo	@Ohio
Kent	4	Temple	NIU	@Buffalo
Ohio	5		Akron	@Miami

So, this is where the whole mess starts. Everybody plays the same number of games, so the number of losses will get us to where we need to be. You can look here for the actual tiebreakers, but, for now, we're going to not go any deeper than head-head, and we're not going to figure out what might happen in a four-loss tie.

Scenario #1: BG Wins Out:

• We would need Akron and Temple to lose at least once each.
  
• Akron and Temple actually play each other, so there's one of them.
• Akron also has to play Buffalo.
• Temple, of all the teams, has a decent route forward strictly based on schedule.
• If this happens, BG would have 3 losses, as would Buffalo and Akron. These are both teams BG would have beaten, and we would get the tiebreaker.

Obviously, we want to avoid tying with Miami, since they beat us. But, in a 3-way tie, it could be different. For example, suppose BG, Buffalo and Miami end up in a 3-way tie, with BG beating Buffalo and Buffalo beating Miami. All three teams are 1-1 within the tied teams. Which means we would go to a secondary tie breaker, which is record within the division, starting with the team directly below the tied teams. Obviously, that's too complicated to play out here, but you get the idea.

The Temple wild card.

There's an additional wild card. We don't play Temple. So, let's say we end up in a tie with Temple. The tie breaker is the record against the next highest ranked team.

If that happens, and both teams have won out (which they would have to do to have 3 losses), then BG would advance if the next team was Buffalo (because we would have beat them and Temple wouldn't have), but Temple would advance if it was Miami (because they would have beaten them and we wouldn't have). However, Miami would have to beat Ball State for that to happen.

Could BG win the East with 4 losses?

The answer is, uh, yeah, it could happen. It would require UT to go on some kind of "Toledo Tom" fueled nostalgia winning streak that was not in evidence in Akron last night....actually, all I really did was find one way for it to happen. There may be others. Wins in orange.

Team	MAC Losses	Week of 11/10	Week of 11/17	Week of 11/24
Akron	2	Buffalo	@Ohio	@Temple
Buffalo	2	@Akron	@BG	Kent
BG	3		Buffalo	Toledo
Temple	3	@Kent	EMU	Akron
Miami	4	Ball State	@Toledo	@Ohio
Kent	4	Temple	NIU	@Buffalo
Ohio	5		Akron	@Miami

You can see what this scenario requires....

That would leave BG, Akron and Buffalo with 4, losses and and everyone else with 5 or more. Based on this scenario, BG would win the tiebreaker.

You know, its not very likely.

Frankly, at this point, the winner of the Buffalo-Akron game is the favorite. And, you can't count Temple or BG out, either.

The 4-loss scenarios do matter...I'm not sure any team on this list can play well enough to win out.