Sunday, March 10, 2013

Win or "Go Home" Time Starts Tomorrow

So, starting tomorrow, it is win or "go home" time.  I put it in quotes only because should BG lose tomorrow night, we will already BE at home.  But you get the point.

The opponent is the Miami RedHawks, the lowest performing team in the MAC.  On home court, you have to think the Falcons will be able to get this one done, but we are all mindful of how we thought that last year, and lost at home to CMU, the second-worst team in the MAC.

The MAC Tournament has not been a kind place for the Falcons.  The last time BG won 2 games in the tournament was in 2002, when they lost in the finals to Kent.  Obviously, that is pre-WVU and the fall from grace the followed.  Coach Orr has won only 2 MAC tournament games.

As opponents, the RedHawks are truly struggling.  They finished 8-21 and 3-13 in the of those 3 wins was against Bowling Green, in Oxford.  Since that game, they have lost 13 out of 14, with the only win being @CMU.

They were 3-13 on the road for the year.  Their RPI is 259 and their kenpom is 249.  (BG's kenpom is 190 and RPI is 255).

The RedHawks have been further stuck by the injury bug.  They lost contributor Drew McGhee just before the second BG game and then lost leading scorer Allen Roberts recently, both due to knee injuries.  They lost Bill Edwards to an injury after five games.

UPDATE:  On twitter, @rickcassano is saying that Roberts is "questionable" for BG but has been cleared by his family physician to return this season.  Stay tuned!

We just played them a couple of weeks ago, so all the things we previewed then are still pretty much true.  The upshot is that this is an average offensive team and a poor defensive team.

After Roberts, their only double figure scorer is Will Felder, a 6'7" JR.  Felder also leads the team with 5.3 rebounds.  Quentin Rollins is the team's leader in assists.

In the last game, BG beat them in relatively unspectacular fashion at the Stroh.  They played a very tough game against an OU team with not much to play for.  BG should win this game.  To lose it would be just as disappointing as last year's loss and a terrible way to end the season.  Honestly, BG has a decent shot to make the quarter finals, but they have to start with the victory Monday.

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