Saturday, March 09, 2013

Permutations become clearer...and clearer

It will all be resolved soon.

Here is how things look at 2:05 pm.

BG will either get the #5 or #6 seed.

Actually, the stuff at the top has gotten somewhat interesting.  OU can actually tie Akron as co-champs (with Akron winning the tie breaker) and that probably will happen, as Miami lost another key player to injury this week.  Kent could also tie WMU, but that's less likely and WMU beat Kent so they would stay #3.

For BG, here are the scenarios.

IF EMU and Ball State both win, then BG finishes 8th and plays the #9 team.  I expect all three bottom teams to lose tomorrow, so that would mean BG would play CMU at home on Monday.  You will recall that the Chips took BG out last year.  Ball would be #5, EMU #6 and Buffalo #7.

If Ball State wins and EMU loses (the most probable scenario), then Ball is #5.  BG would be #6, EMU #7 and Buffalo #8.  BG would probably play Miami here, which would be good since they are bad and have lost Allen Roberts.

If EMU wins and Ball State loses, a far less likely scenario, then EMU is #5, Buffalo is #6, BG is #7 and Ball is #8.

Finally, if both EMU and Ball State lose, then BG does get #5 and does not play Monday.  EMU would be #6, Bufalo #7 and Ball State #8.

Anyway, how ever it sets up, BG has a very winnable game at home on Monday.  However, the same was true last year when BG played the second worst team in the entire conference and lost that game, so you'd certainly feel like you had some redemption to get.

Remember, by the way, that when we talk about being #6 we are talking seeding.  UT has finished ahead of BG and so BG's actual finish will be one spot lower than its seed.  BG finished #6 last year in the full 12 team conference, for those of you who are scoring at home.

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