Monday, March 11, 2013

Kenpom says BG has 9 in 1,000 chance of making Dance

Here, stolen directly from, are the odds for the MAC tournament, based on the log5 system, which you can find here if you really want to understand it.  Mostly, he uses math, which can be annoyingly factual.  People prefer opinions.  The beauty of this system is that no matter happens, kenpom cannot be wrong.

Note that Round 1 in this calculation is actually the Round of 8 that is played Wednesday.  So BG has a 78% chance to reach that game and 50/50 to get two wins and 1/5 to get 3.  And, to win it all is 9 chances in 1,000.

So it is not nothing or the odds that NIU has.

Note also that he indicates here that these are pre-Abreu numbers which may not transfer into a post-Abreu world.  Even so, OU had a decent shot at them...and there is that old thing about beating a team three times, and now without your PG.

You might wonder how it is that Ball State ended up with the #5 seed and yet with less than 50% to win their first game.  That is because they had an 8-8 record in the MAC, but they also played NIU and CMU twice and had a softer schedule in general than the West.

There you have it...

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