Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Penultimate Permutations

And here they are.  The standings heading into the season's final game.

Things have turned bleak in the Falcon Nation.

BG can still get the #5 seed.  It would happen if...

  • BG beats Buffalo
  • EMU loses to UT in Ypsi
  • Ball State loses to NIU in Muncie

You see my point.  Buffalo is playing really well.  In fact, the MAC tourney should be interesting, with two dominant teams but with Ball State and Buffalo playing really well.  Anyway, I like BG's chances at home against Buffalo but it is far from certain and I'm probably slightly delusional.

Beyond that, EMU could certainly lose to UT, though the game is in Ypsi...but I don't see Ball State losing to NIU at home.  (Note that Abdel Nader has missed the last two games due to "personal issues" and if he misses the next one, Ball State is a virtual lock).

So, if all those cosmic tumblers fall into place there would be a 4-way tie for the #5 seed.  BG would be 3-1 in that grouping.  EMU would be 2-2, Buffalo 2-2 and Ball State 1-3.

I don't actually think it matters too much whether BG ends up #6, #7 or #8.   CMU, NIU and Miami are all pretty similar teams.

If you finish #8 than your first game at the Q would be against the #5 seed whereas if you finish #6 or #7 you play someone who also had to play on Monday, which is slightly better, I guess.  In that vein, BG just has to pass one team.  With a win, BG would obviously tie Buffalo, but we lose the head to head tie breaker with them so we would need another team to drop into the tie and it would have to be EMU.

In the end, even allowing for the fact it can always happen, there's no reason to think this team has a tournament run in them.  To win the tournament, BG would need to win 5 times in 6 days in a year where it has taken us all year to win 12 games.

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