Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Rock Chalk RedHawk

There is no better way to put it.  If BG has any hope of salvaging their season with a decent finish and #4 or #5 seed, this is a game they have to have.

In fact, the Miami loss just looks disastrous on our schedule.  They are 3-9 in MAC play and BG is the only team that went into Millett this year and came away with a loss.  Since they beat BG, they have lost 9 of 10 and 8 or 9 in the MAC, beating only CMU, the worst team so far.

They are 8-17 and 3-9.  Their RPI is 269 and their kenpom is 250.  Those numbers, actually, are only slightly behind BG's.

Anyway, beyond the losing streak not much has changed since the last time BG played them.

The main struggles for this team are on defense.  They are 11th in the MAC in defensive efficiency.  They are dead last  in defending the shot, at 54.9% EFG%.  They give up a fair number of offensive rebounds and are 8th in the MAC in allowing teams to get to the line.  They are good at one thing, and that is forcing turnovers--they are 3rd in the MAC in that category.

Offensively, they are in the middle of the pack.  They are 8th in points per possession.  They aren't bad with the shot--5th in the MAC--and they are 6th in turning the ball over.  They are terrible on the offensive boards (11th) and 6th at getting to the line.  We noted the last time we played that they are an anomaly in that normally a team's points per possession can easily be explained by the four factors, but in this case, Miami's output is worst than the sum of its parts.

BTW, in the first game, BG allowed Miami to be way too efficient...they scored at 1.1 points per possession.  Tomorrow's performance has got to be the BG defense we have seen in general, notwithstanding the effort Saturday.

Individually, things were tough enough and then Bill Edwards was lost for the year.  They are led by Allen Roberts, who is scoring 12.8 PPG on 39% shooting, which is a rough way to go.  Will Felder is scoring 11 points per game on 51% shooting and leading the team with 5.4 rebounds as well.  Quentin Rollins leads them with 4 assists and 2 steals per game.

BG is coming of a difficult night in Ft. Wayne.  (Miami lost by 1 to IPFW).  There seemed to be strong emotions and BG's leading scorer was bench for the entire second half.  The question will be how the team responds to that.  Will BG bounce back or will there be a residual effect.  There are four games left in the regular season, and BG has 3 at home.

BG has been playing well at home and this is a team that is really struggling.  We struggle on offense and they struggle on defense.  This is a game you just have to win.

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