Thursday, February 28, 2013

Permutations--February 28

So, here are the MAC standings as of this morning.  There is, obviously, a huge log-jam in the middle, with a four-way tie at 6-7 and Ball State just one game back.  Kent is first in the 4-way tie due to a 3-1 record among the four teams and BG is second due to a 2-1 lead among the four teams.

For Falcons fans, here are the pertinent questions.

What does it look like if BG wins two coming home?

At 8-8 with a win over Buffalo and Kent, it is hard to imagine that BG does not end up in 4th.  They would have tiebreakers over all the competitive teams.  If BG did beat Kent, they could have to beat Akron just go get to 8-8.  EMU would have to beat WMU or UT (assuming a win @CMU) and Buffalo has to beat either Akron or OU and BG to get to 8.  Ball State would have to win out to get to 8 and they still have to go @UT and @WMU.

I don't see any of that happening, but I don't see us beating Kent either.

It is a similar story if BG gets to 8 with a win over OU and Buffalo.  If Kent wins @Miami and beats BG and loses to Akron, they would tie BG at 8-8.  BG would have the tiebreaker due to its win over WMU.

Beating OU will be no picnic, either.

Now.  What if BG only wins 1 coming home, and it is Buffalo.

With BG at 7-9, Kent probably finishes 4th due to beating MI and BG and losing to Akron and going 8-8.

However, under that scenario, Buffalo could easily be 6-10.  If they end up in a tie with BG at 7-9, they would win the tiebreaker because their win over Akron over OU would be better than BG's win over WMU.

Beyond that, it is hard to tell.  EMU should get 1 win and be 7-9.  In a head to head tie, however, BG would beat EMU due to head to head victory.

In the end, with a win over Buffalo, I think BG has a good shot, but far from a lock at the #5 seed.  With two wins, however improbable, I think BG has an excellent shot at being #4.

There's lot to play for.  There is no interplay on Saturday...all of our competitors can lose.  Beyond BG winning, we need Miami, WMU, Akron, and Toledo to win, and there's a good chance we get 3 out of 4.

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