Monday, September 19, 2016

International Centre for Special Teams Research, Blue Raiders

If you read this blog, you know that I started in 2009 using my own system for evaluating special teams play for Bowling Green.   You can read the full introduction and see the scoring system here, should such a thing interest you.  The basic idea is that you get positive points for good plays outside the middle area of the bell curve on the right and negative points on the left.  The system doesn't care if you get to the 26 or 28 on a kickoff or if you make a short FG...make a long FG or miss an easy one, now we're talking.

The game had the two most important special teams plays of the year, one going each way.  BG had a disastrous play when Ronnie Moore was fielding a was hard to see, but it might have hit him around the 20 and then it rolled to the ten and he seemed unsure if he had touched it but he didn't fall on it and just kind of slapped at it...removing all doubt about whether he had touched it...and then MTSU recovered.

A few minutes late the tables were turned as MTSU fumbled a punt return and BG recovered.

Both plays led to scores.

They also cancelled themselves out in our system.  BG finished at an even 0.  Even with the cancelling out, MTSU had a big day, going +6 for the game.  BG was hurt mostly by not getting the usual production out of Davidson, who did boom a ending up in the end zone.  To their credit, MTSU made a bunch of special teams play beyond the fumbles.  Their punter did a great job of pinning us deep in our own territory, and right now, long fields are not our friend.

Here is how it broke out.

BG Positive (+5)

Recover fumbled punt (+3)
61 yard net punt (+1)
KOR to 38 (1)

BG Negative (-5)

Lose muffed punt (-3)
Penalty and punt return give MTSU 54 yard net  (-1)
KOR to 10 (-1)

MTSU Positive (+12)

KO TB (+1)
Recover muffed punt (+3)
KO TB (+1)
BG KOR to 10 (+1)
Punt to 12 (+1)
11 yard PR (+1)
KO TB (+1)
Punt to 10 (+1)
Punt to 2 (+2)

MTSU Negative (-6)

Lose fumbled punt (-3)
Miss 28 yd FG (-1)
BG KOR to 38 (-1)
Miss XP (-1)

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