Game by Game

Well, game week is just one week away, and it is time to finish up our-preason work by taking a stab at a game by game prediction for our team.  I have to admit at the beginning that I am pretty divided on what to do.  This team is young, and there are few favors on the schedule.  Let me begin by showing what I think is a worst case, but plausible, scenario.

9/4/2010 at Troy Troy, Al.   L

Troy is a good team on their home field looking for revenge after last year's defeat and BG's youth makes this a tough assignment.  Troy has a new QB but their receiving corps is very strong and I worry they will run wild in our secondary.

9/11/2010 at Tulsa Tulsa, OK  L

Tulsa is a quality program that looks to be much improved.  They have a really good QB, will be hard for us to beat, especially on the road.

9/18/2010 Marshall Bowling Green, Ohio L

Marshall beat us last season, and does have a returning QB.  This won't be a big year for the Herd, but they have enough talent to beat BG, even on the road.

9/25/2010 at Michigan Ann Arbor, MI  L

These are certainly not glory days for the Michigan program.  However, they are getting very fast and will tough for us to beat.  Also, running QBs have traditionally been difficult or impossible for us to handle.  (See:  Julian Edelman).

10/2/2010 * Buffalo Bowling Green, Ohio W

BG gets in the win column against a Bull team that is re-building its program and has QB issues as well. At home, BG wins this game.

10/9/2010 * at Ohio Athens, Ohio L

OU is very strong, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and presents a very difficult matchup for us.

10/16/2010 * at Temple Philadelphia, Penn. L

Temple is the MAC's best team playing this game on their field.  BG has yet to prove it can stop a stud runner like Bernard Pierce.

10/23/2010 * Kent State Bowling Green, Ohio L

Kent is the MAC's surprise team, in my mind.  They also have a stud runner and a very solid defense.  They are, in some ways, Temple Light.  Further, they almost beat us last year.

10/30/2010 * at Central Michigan Mt. Pleasant, MI L

Yes, CMU is rebuilding, but the coaches there were good recruiters and they have a winning tradition.  They should be adapting to their new system better by this point in the season, as BG should be adapting to its new players.  This looks to be me to be an interesting matchup.

11/10/2010 * Miami Bowling Green, Ohio W

Miami is still rebuilding its talent, and BG wins this game.

11/17/2010 * at Toledo Toledo, Ohio L

This hurts, trust me.  The game is at UT, however, and BG has won 3 in a row, and you just figure that an improving Rocket program gets off the schneid.

11/26/2010 * Western Michigan Bowling Green, Ohio L

I think Western is really good, and could easily be playing this game for a title.  Playing the game the day after Thanksgiving virtually ensures that the Doyt will be nearly empty, negating a home field advantage.


So, that's pretty depressing.  It equals a 2-10 season and I think that each result is plausible.  For this to happen, however, everything on BG's side will have to develop poorly, and I do think our coaches have the ability to mold these young but talented players into a formidable unit.  Finally, we have some tough matchups against defenses that will test our QB and Line and some teams who compliment those defenses with stud d-backs.

Now, let's take a look at the other side of the coin.  Let's say our hopes are rewarded, and the team has made more progress.  The offense is effective, and the defense can get off the field enough to keep us in games.  The season could look more like this.

9/4/2010 at Troy Troy, Al.   W

This is actually a winnable game.  Troy had a very strong defensive line and linebackers, and those units are rebuilding.  Their QB options are a highly touted player who has not seen game action in a year and a R-Fr.  These things, combined with the lack of a marquee back make this an upset possibility for the Falcons.

9/11/2010 at Tulsa Tulsa, OK  L

See above.

9/18/2010 Marshall Bowling Green, Ohio W

This is a winnable game for BG.  This is a very down Marshall team.  Their big transfer QB could not beat out last year's guy, who was just average.  The don't have any unit that stands out in strength, and the game will be in BG with what everyone hopes will be a nice crowd.

9/25/2010 at Michigan Ann Arbor, MI  L

See above.

10/2/2010 * Buffalo Bowling Green, Ohio W

See above

10/9/2010 * at Ohio Athens, Ohio L

See above

10/16/2010 * at Temple Philadelphia, Penn. L

See above

10/23/2010 * Kent State Bowling Green, Ohio W

Here, we fall under the theory that "Kent is still Kent."  The Falcons are gelling by this point in the season, and the improved LB and D-Line help contain Jarvis and BG wins a tight one.

10/30/2010 * at Central Michigan Mt. Pleasant, MI L

See above

11/10/2010 * Miami Bowling Green, Ohio W

See above

11/17/2010 * at Toledo Toledo, Ohio W

BG's offense is rolling and exploits a still building UT defense.

11/26/2010 * Western Michigan Bowling Green, Ohio L

See above

That's the road to 6-6.  If you want to figure what it would take to get to 7-5 and (you figure) another bowl game, you would probably need to win @CMU or beat WMU in the finale.

Now, it is time to quit messing around and try to actually pick what I think will happen.  This is as uncertain as I have been on a Falcon team in a long time.  Here is what I think...

9/4/2010 at Troy Troy, Al.   L

9/11/2010 at Tulsa Tulsa, OK  L

9/18/2010 Marshall Bowling Green, Ohio W

9/25/2010 at Michigan Ann Arbor, MI

10/2/2010 * Buffalo Bowling Green, Ohio W

10/9/2010 * at Ohio Athens, Ohio L

10/16/2010 * at Temple Philadelphia, Penn. L 

10/23/2010 * Kent State Bowling Green, Ohio L

10/30/2010 * at Central Michigan Mt. Pleasant, MI L

11/10/2010 * Miami Bowling Green, Ohio W

11/17/2010 * at Toledo Toledo, Ohio W

11/26/2010 * Western Michigan Bowling Green, Ohio L

So, I see 4-8 and 3-5 in the MAC.  I would love to be wrong, but I just think this schedule provides very few breaks for a team in our position.  This would have been tough for last season's team, for that matter.