Football Benchmarks, Part I

So, I'm trying something new. I have been looking at a bunch of different ways you might use sort of a basketball-style tempo free analysis to look at football stats. I think some of the stats (running yards per game for example) are easy to distort and do not tell the full story.

To to this, I look at things in terms of a percentage of plays--generally.  To me, that's a way to give a team that runs a low-paced but effective offense to compare with a fast-paced offense that might put up gaudier yardage but not be more effective.

Looking at the chart below, The second column is the MAC averages for conference games last season.  The next is how BG's offense fared against Wyoming, and the final column is how the defense fared.

 Let me quickly review each category below.

• Sacks and interceptions are negative passing plays.  In general, in the MAC, 10% of passing plays end in a sack (6.1%) or interception (3.9%).  
• Run plays means what percentage of plays are rushes---with sacks moved from running plays to passing plays.
• Running/play adjusted means a rushing average with sack attempts and yardage charged against the passing game.
• Passing/play adjusted is passing yards/attempted pass, adjusted for sacks as passing plays.
• Passing/Reception adjusted is passing yards/completed pass, adjusted for sacks as passing plays
• Yards per play is yards per play--the single best measure, other than scoring, of a football offense.
• Completion % is % of completed passes, adjusted for sacks.
• First down percentage is the percentage of total offensive plays in which the team earns a first down.  This both shows a team being productive, but also rewards a team that scores on long TD plays and maybe doesn't get as many first downs as a grind it out team.
• 3rd down plays is the percentage of a team's plays that are run on 3rd down.  The theory here is that you are more productive offensively if you have fewer third down plays.
• The traditional conversion measure is 3rd down conversion.  But, if a team goes for it on 4th, that should count in my mind, especially since it often impacts the play call on 3rd down.  This was envisioned when looking at the offense of Toledo Tom up on Bancroft.
• Turnover % is the % of plays on which a turnover occurs.
• I am a big believer that red zone stats are poorly measured.  First, beyond per trip measures, I think we should be looking at how many times did you get there.  BG had some great offenses for whom red zone trips were not as important because if they didn't score, they were just back in the red zone three minutes later.  Conversely, some teams need to maximize their trips.
• Also, using percentages to measure red zone trips does not make any sense to me, because they count FGs and TDs equally.  Here, I measure it by giving 7 for a TD and 3 for a FG and dividing it by the number of trips.
• Mark of success is interesting.  Here's the thing....lots of teams rack up a big completion percentage by throwing a lot of short passes behind the line of scrimmage, and they can be deceptive statistically.  On the other hand, a team can rack up huge yards on a couple bombs but not be accurate enough to convert a 3rd and 5.
• Last year, in MAC play, there were only 3 teams that seemed to combine these virtues, by having 60% completion and 12 yards per reception, both sack adjusted.
• The last two are self-explanatory....where did BG start after a kickoff and what was the net punting.

With that in mind, some observations:

Though BG kept Wyoming near typical averages for passing yardage, there were a lot of completions and absolutely no negative plays.  The defense was very good on 3rd down, which is a force multiplier...if you are good on 3rd down, you can give up more yards.  Also, Wyoming was not great in the red zone either.

BG struggled to run the ball, though this number includes the 8 yard loss where Schilz fell down.

BG generated excellent yardage for its pass plays, even sack adjusted.  The negative pass plays were slightly better than normal, given the large amount of passing attempts.

BG was very poor in the red zone.

BG once again was only able to run the ball 34% of the time.