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On and on it goes. BG will reach the half-way point of the MAC season at Buffalo on ESPNU Friday night.
On and on it goes. BG will reach the half-way point of the MAC season at Buffalo on ESPNU Friday night.
Posted by Orange at 5:47 PM 0 comments
And that's 7 in a row.
Posted by Orange at 11:40 AM 0 comments
100% Committed🧡🤎 #AyZiggy @BG_Football @CoachLoefflerBG @Coach_TMalone @AllenTrieu pic.twitter.com/Q1Vz0qNPv7— Gabriel Brown (@gabriel_brown33) January 27, 2020
Posted by Orange at 10:58 AM 0 comments
The big challenge now is to refocus after the big signature road win and make sure you don't turn it back with a home loss. This is the test of winning the MAC Championship (or any conference). You gotta keep coming up with wins.
Ball State is next. They are 11-8 with 1 non-d1 win, with a good win at Georgia Tech and a bad loss at home to Western Illinois. Their kenpom is 106. They are 4-2 in MAC play, with home wins over UT, UB and Miami and a road win over EMU. Their losses are @ Akron and @CMU...two of the higher teams right now. They are 1-2 in the MAC on the road this year.
The series has been in BGs favor. They have beaten BSU 8 of the last 10 meetings. BG last lost at home to BSU in 2016 and before that you have to go back to 2004.
Here's the thing about Ball State. This is the best defensive team in the MAC and one of the top 50 in the country. BG is third in the MAC in offense, so that's the battle worth watching. Meanwhile, BSU is 10th in offense and BG is 8th in defense...which is a battle of a different kind. Still, BG has won only 3 games at .91 over the past three years, and they'll need to score higher than that to get the win.
Posted by Orange at 9:35 AM 0 comments
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Posted by Orange at 11:20 AM 0 comments
One of two with the hated Rockets, this first one at Savage Hall. The next couple weeks will tell us a lot, as would a BG road win in this venue. We shall see.
The Rockets had high expectations this year...not as high as BG, but high. They were 8-2 at one point, then had a five-game losing streak, including two MAC games (both away) to be 8-7. Since then, they have won 3 out of 4, beating WMU and losing to CMU at Savage and then winning at Akron and OU. The Akron win was big. No one else has come close to the Zips this year.
They are playing well now and, as noted in the latest Briggs column, have as good a chance as anyone in a wide-open MAC. They also have a long NCAA drought...not as long as BG, but long. It's a solid program and Kowalczyk can coach.
The series is trending wrong. UT has won 9 of the last 10, with the one exception being that OT classic at the Stroh a couple years ago with the Zack Denny shot.
They are scoring the ball. In MAC play, they are second in offensive efficiency at 1.09 points per possession. As you can see, their defense is not great (1.07) which is 10th. BG is at 1.04 going both ways, reflecting the very close games they have played. This will be a battle on both ends for the Falcons. They will need to get UT below 1.09 a possession (would be my guess) but BG has to start to make more shots. More on that.
Posted by Orange at 10:08 AM 1 comments
BG MBB picked up their fifth straight win last night over EMU, 62-59. BG goes to 5-1 in the MAC and EMU remains winless at 0-6. BG is still tied for first place, one-third through the MAC season.
Things are set to become a little more real. BG has had 4 of their first 6 at home and has played, statistically, the weakest schedule in the MAC to date.
On one hand, I remember hearing an interview with Sammy Sosa during the year of the HR chase and he said some people said he was hitting cheap homers in Wrigley Field.
He said: "I hope I hit a cheap one every day."
Winning is winning. When you looked at the schedule before it started, you knew you needed to be at least 5-1 coming out of the stretch and we are.
Even so, every game has been a nail biter. You don't get the sense that BG has played a championship game yet. And, in Sosa terms, the fences are moving back. BG has 7 of the last 12 on the road and against more successful teams. I believe they're going to need to be more effective to consistently win.
For example, Coach said that EMU's defense makes it hard to get things going. Well, 4 of their 6 opponents scored better against them than we did and the other current top teams in the MAC beat them easily...Akron (24) and Ball State (17).
Or, as Coach was quoted in The Blade, "until you can really hit a stride and play well, and everybody is playing well for 40 minutes, you have to figure out a way to win the game."
Which is true...but I think BG also needs to hit a stride.
The first half was pretty even, though probably slightly favoring the Eagles on points. They went up 8 but BG rallied and the game was tied at halftime.
BG scored the first 8 points of the half and led by 10 with around 11 minutes left to play. EMU scored the next 8 points (over 4 minutes!) to get the game to even. BG then fouled Marcus Gibbs shooting a 3FG--Gibbs had not scored all season and played only 9 minutes--and then Gibbs hit 2 of the 3 FTs to give EMU the lead with about 3 minutes to play.
BG then closed the way they have been. Turner hit a jumper to go up 1 with 2:40. BG got a couple stops before Plowden hit a jumper to go up 2 and make the lead 3 with 1:27. Then, Gibbs (again!) got himself a hoop and an and-one chance. He missed the chance to tie the game.
Turner hit a layup next time down (+3) and Frye poked the ball away from their big man from the blind side and Turner was fouled and he made both FTs to make it +5 with :18 left. BG got another stop and it was over. EMU hit a late 2FG to make it 3 points final.
For the game, BG had .87 points per possession, their second worst offensive game of the season, with only KSU being worse. BG shot 43% from 2FG and 29% from 3FG...more or less what they shot against NIU. What you see here is what happens when you shoot like that and don't get 40% of the offensive boards and to the line a lot.
Meanwhile, EMU shot 61% from FG but only 13% from 3FG. They didn't do a thing on the offensive boards. To help their cause, they got to the line quite a bit, but made only 13 of 20. Meanwhile, they turned the ball over 19 times, probably costing themselves the game.
Posted by Orange at 3:27 PM 0 comments
Next up, the EMU Eagles. This team is an interesting picture of what can happen in today's college basketball. Here are the players EMU expected to lose last year...three really good players, in fact. Be a problem on its own...
James Thomson IV All-MAC
Elijah Minnie All-MAC HM
Paul Jackson, 14 PPG
Isiah Green
Then, on top of it, they lost five more players to transfer
Daivon Stephens and Tariq Silvers, transfer to Tallahassee Community College
Malik Ellison, transfer to Saginaw Valley State
Bud Jones, St. Thomas University
Kevin McAdoo, Bradley
So that's 9 scholarships Rob Murphy had to fill for this year. That's also nearly impossible. By definition, a lot of transfers happen after signing day...when the top players, even JUCO players, have already chosen a home.
It's just unbelievable...9 new players. They have 10 players who started their career at another college or JUCO. It's just a brutal way to go.
They are 10-8 with 4 non-D1 wins. Their kenpom is 226. Their best win is a good one, @ North Texas (#86). They have lost their first 5 MAC games and their last 7 D1 games. They have not won a D1 game since December 17.
BG has won 6 out of the last 10 but only 3 of last 5 at the Stroh.
So, what you get with EMU is a 2-3 zone and a consistently strong defensive unit. You get that this year, as well. Their problem is that they are just dreadful on offense--last in the MAC, one of tghe worst in the country. Look at that spread on the EMU offense/BG defense! (MAC games only). The defense is good, 3rd in the MAC and will be a test for BG, which has struggled with this zone.
Posted by Orange at 2:23 PM 0 comments
After the game, Coach said that if you told him BG was going to win and have Frye and Turner shoot a collective 5 of 24 and you'd win the game in MAC play, he would have taken it all day. That's just what happened--the shooting goes deeper than that, in fact. BG has won 4 straight MAC games now and getting the W is the key. And if winning when you aren't playing well is important, so is playing well. I don't think BG has put together a complete performance in MAC play, but maybe it's that kind of year. There clearly is no dominant team in the MAC right now. It might be a dogfight to the end. My feeling is BG still has to elevate the game to get to the title.
For the first, BG was clearly the stronger team. About 7 minutes in, BG took the lead and led until haltime, with its largest lead, 9 points, at the break. The second half was a different kettle of fish. BG shot 28% in the second half. The game was down to a one-possession game 3 minutes into the half. BG maintained the lead, though, even as the margin stayed in the 1-3 point range. BG popped it up to 6 with 9 minutes left but NIU finally put a modest run together and took the lead with about 6 minutes left, after BG had led for 27 straight minutes.
They only ended up holding the second half lead twice, but the game was tied with 2:06 left. The two teams traded stops and BG had the ball and called time with 1:10 left. They ran offense, didn't really find anything and then Laster got the ball to Frye in the corner. This was right on line with my seat and Frye was behind the backboard when he launched this shot and he'd been cold all night and then in it went. That took some stones. BG was up 3.
Down on the other end, German missed a 3FG, Justin Turner got the board and was fouled and made both FTs to make it a 5-point lead with :29 to play.
BG got another 3FG miss from NIU but gave up the board and NIU made the follow and cut the lead to 3 again with :16 left.
BG was in-bounding from its baseline. They got the ball into Turner, but it was in the corner and the had him trapped and didn't foul and BG called time. That killed :04. With :12 left off the TO, BG actually ran a nice play, getting a high pass to Mattos who then fed it to Frye who had looped through traffic and was in the clear. He got down court and got the clock to :08. He was fouled, needed one FT, missed the first but made the second after an icing and BG had the win. NIU hit a buzzer 2 to get to the 66-64 final.
From a stats standpoint, it was an amazing game to win. BG's EFG was 38.8%--36% on 2FG and 28% on 3FG. Since 2002, BG has only shot that poorly and won five other times (D1) and only twice in MAC play:
Green Bay 02
Wright State 13
Ohio and EIU 08
UT 06
So, that was unusual. What was really weird--and what has not happened since at least 2002--is BG shot that poorly and still scored over 1 point per possession...1.02, which is actually above the D1 average for the year. That's fascinating.
How did it happen? Three things.
First, BG turned the ball over on only 15% of its possessions, above where they have been but still a good result.
Second, BG got 40% of the available offensive rebounds...against a team that was #50 in the country on their defensive glass. Those extra shots helped BG score when shooting badly.
Third, BG had a great game at the line. BG has not excelled getting to the line. It was only the third game when FTs exceeded 40% of FGA this year. More importantly, BG made 21 of 24 at the line.
So, that's how BG got to 1-point possession on a dreadful shooting night.
The other thing was defense. If you have read here, you know that BG's defense has been terrible in the last couple games. Not so last night at the Stroh. BG locked down NIU, holding them to .99 per possession, the lowest in MAC play to date. (Caveat, NIU came in averaging .96 per possession).
They shot 46%, which is 4% below the MAC average, so that was a win. NIU took good care of the ball but only had poor night on the offensive boards and hardly got to the line at all. They made 12 of 14, which is good, but it's -9 on FTs compared to the Falcons.
One thing has to be noted. Eugene German is an all-MAC player, top 25 scorer in the country and NIU's only double-figure scorer on the year. Caleb Fields spent most of the night on German--Turner did some as well. Let me assure you, when Eugene German went to sleep last night, he saw Caleb Fields in his dreams. Fields hounded German everywhere he went. They would pull German back to the center line. Fields was there. Send him to the corner. Fields was there. Fields didn't help on anyone. He guarded German and often denied the ball. The Huskies tried everything to pop him free, including sending 2 centers out for a double screen. It was an amazing effort by Fields that should be recognized.
Yet, German got 19, nearly his average. But, he normally shoots 47% from 2FG, for example, and this time he was 3 of 10. He was 3 of 9 from 3FG. Making him use those extra 2-3 possessions to get his points could have been the difference in the game.
Posted by Orange at 10:29 AM 0 comments
Next up for BG MBB is a two-game homestand, with NIU and then EMU coming to town.
The Huskies are 9-8 with only 1 non-D1 win. Their best non-MAC win was Oakland (#205) and they have 5 wins over teams ranked 300 and below, which is an impressive scheduling feat if nothing else.
They opened up MAC play with a surprising win @ UB, lost @ CMU, beat EMU in DeKalb and were smoked by a scalding Akron team at the JAR. (AK is up to #60 on kenpom. Their average margin of victory in MAC games is 19 points).
BG beat them twice last year...once in DeKalb and once in the MAC semi-finals after NIU had knocked UT out. Over their last 10 meetings, the series is 5-5 and 2-2 over the last four games at the Stroh.
Profile-wise, NIU is a good defensive team and a not-good offensive team. d-1 average is 1 point per possession, so you can see where everybody stands. BG has struggled on defense quite a bit and if you see the Huskies start scoring at will, you'll know we're struggling again. Meanwhile, BG has been successful on offense and will be taking on a decent Huskie defense. It has the makings of an interesting game.
Posted by Orange at 2:22 PM 0 comments
And the second straight on the road...
The Falcons are 3-1 and in a tie for second in the MAC. Remember, BG is in the softest part of its MAC schedule. We have statistically played the softest MAC schedule, according to kenpom.
Having said that, you're supposed to beat these teams and BG is winning the games. The test for a championship team is to translate that to the better teams in the MAC. BG has faced one--Kent--and had a decidedly bad night. That's going to need to change when the time comes.
Just to put it in perspective, BG could easily end up at 6-1 following Tuesday's EMU game. Anything less would be a disappointment. They will have played 4 home games and 2 away games, so 5 home left and 7 on the road. After that, Kenpom has BG favored to win only 3 more games--just to illustrate the schedule difference.
So, to get to 12 wins (let's say), you need home wins over EMU, NIU, BSU, UB, UT, OU and a win at Miami. That's certainly doable. Bonus opportunities are @UB and @CMU and AK at home.
Anyway, with championship expectations, I would say two things.
1. You need these early wins badly
2. This team needs to defend better to win a title. And there's time to get that done.
BG's two worst defensive games of the season have been the last two. BG is currently 11th in the MAC in defense and 3rd in offense. Last year BG finished 6th in defense and 2nd in offense. That's going to have to adjust itself against better competition moving forward, or BG will have a hard time meeting expectations. BG's 3 best offensive games have been the last two and Hartford, so BG is scoring with Turner back, but I just feel it will take a more rounded effort to win pressure games.
For this game, WMU led for most of the first 10 minutes. BG took the lead with 9 minutes left and WMU lead for only :35 the rest of the way. There's more to the story than that, but BG essentially was in the lead for 29 straight minutes, with leads reaching as high as 10 at 64-54 with about 12 left.
WMU then went on a 15-5, though, and the game was tied with 8 minutes left. BG responded well and had the lead back to 9 with 2:51 left to play. (At that level, the winning team wins 97% of the time, as they did in this case). Over the next 1:45 or so WMU scored 7 straight points, leaving BG with the ball and a 2-point lead with 1:07 left.
So, the pressure's on. You don't want to drop this one after having that kind of lead with 3 minutes left. BG got the ball to Marlon Sierra and he made a shot from the key and drew a blocking foul to make it an and-1. Hawkins was apoplectic at the call...I watched the replay several times. The WMU player was moving when the contact happened. He seemed to be moving sideways, though, which is allowed if he had established legal guarding position, which for my money was a bang-bang call.
Anyway, Sierra hit the FT and BG was up 5 with :40 to play.
You'd like one stop here, one buckle down effort where you seal the game. Unfortunately, BG couldn't contain Flowers and he hit a layup with :30 to play to make it 3.
Even so, you're in decent shape with the ball. WMU pressed like crazy and Justin Turner showed some serious handle, basically driving down the sideline against pressure and into the front court before turning back. They didn't get a foul until :20 left. WMU needed 3 fouls to get BG into the bonus.
So, basically, BG has to inbound the ball 3 straight times without a turnover. We've all sat through some cringe-worthy BG pressure inbounds, but BG made it happen this time and relatively easily. On the third one, the ball ended up with Sierra as opposed to one of the guards...Coach said after the game he's looking for the guards to work harder to get to the ball in that situation.
Anyway, Sierra missed the FT so WMU had a chance to tie. Once again, BG did not foul in this situation (because the data indicates that's the better move ;) ) and Flowers launched a contested 3 with :03 left. Thankfully, he missed, BG knocked the rebound out and WMU did get a shot off in .7 but missed again and the Falcons had the win.
BG scored 1.15 points per possession and WMU had 1.11 (see discussion above).
Here's what you have. BG shot well--best of the year. BG made 56% of 2 FGs and 42% of 3FGs. As mentioned, WMU also shot well, with 57% from 2FG but only 32% from 3FG. Turnovers were even as were offensive rebounds. The other key difference was fouls. BG had 17 fouls...WMU had only 11 until they had to start fouling at the end. WMU made 14 of 19 at the line while BG made only 5 of 7...a -9 deficit for BG.
Posted by Orange at 4:13 PM 0 comments
BG's weeknight game this week is in Kalamazoo against the WMU Broncos. They Broncos are 8-8 with a Kenpom of 259, the lowest in the MAC. That's with 2 non-D1 wins. Their best win this year was at home against Kent Ohio (we regret the error), before Youngstown State. Their worst losses were Seattle and Oakland. They have had a rougher MAC start than BG, losing at Akron and at UT.
BG is on a nice run against WMU, winning 8 of the last 10 and 4 of 5 in K-zoo.
The Broncos are not good on either side of the ball, though the defense is worse than the offense.
Posted by Orange at 8:49 PM 0 comments
Dakich used to say that when you grow old as a coach, you remember three things.
Posted by Orange at 10:15 AM 0 comments
We are excited to welcome Greg Nosal to the @BG_Football family!— BG Football (@BG_Football) January 10, 2020
Next stop: 🌙#RelentlessEffort // #AyZiggy pic.twitter.com/RvkSgW61EW
Posted by Orange at 8:52 AM 1 comments
So, BG heads down to Athens for the first MAC road game of the year. Ohio U. has a new Coach this year after the Saul Phillips experiment was called off. Jeff Boal, a former Bobcat, coaches there now. They weren't expected to be great this year and they haven't been.
They are 9-6 with a #206 Kpom. They have two non-D1 wins in there. Their best win was over St. Bonaventure (#116) in the opener, and they lost a couple rough ones...Campbell (#228) to end the pre-MAC season and WMU (#268) to start the MAC season. They did rebound with a win over EMU at the Convo on Tuesday to be 1-1 in the MAC. According to kenpom, their home court advantage is #59 in D1.
Looking at the matchup, we wouldn't expect a ton of surprises here. National average is 1.001 points per possession, so when OU has the ball, both teams are right around average and we'd expect things right around there. When BG has the ball, you have a slightly better offense for BG and even a little worse defense for the Bobcats. Essentially, all of BG's losses have come below 1 point per possession and/or over 1.03 points per possession on defense.
Posted by Orange at 8:36 PM 0 comments
If you recall, BG at one point had four football verbals from Springdale, Arkansas...Har-Ber High School. All of which is really odd...that's a lot of players from one school and for it to be in Arkansas on top of it...just not something you see. But, I can only deal with what's out there...
Anyway, the four guys were JB Brown, Jay Burns, Torrance Farmer and JaJuan Boyd.
Of them, only JB Brown signed on signing day...here is the bio BG provided
High School: Played three years of varsity football for Chris Wood at Har-Ber High School … 2019 all-state outside linebacker … 2018 all-conference … Earned Jonesboro Sun’s “Best Under The Sun” recognition in 2018 … 2017 defensive skill player of the year … Named a team captain … Ranked No. 26 on the Fab40 ranking of the top college recruits from the state of Arkansas.
after conversation with Bowling Green and my family I would like to say I will be de-committing and re opening my recruitment thanks for all the love and support thru out this process‼️— @JB4 (@JadarrienBurns) January 9, 2020
Recruitment is now open‼️ #decommitted— Torrance Farmer Jr🌟 (@FarmerTorrance) January 9, 2020
I would like to say I will be de-committing and re opening my recruitment ✍🏾— JaJuan Boyd (@boyd_jajuan) January 9, 2020
Posted by Orange at 11:57 AM 2 comments
So, back in the saddle. Heard most of Todd Walker and Kirk Cowan on last night's nutty game in the car on the ride home. A few thoughts two games in.
Posted by Orange at 2:11 PM 0 comments
So, as we start MAC MBB play, here are the kenpom rankings. Based on what has happened to date, BG would be picked to be #6 in the MAC at 9-9. Obviously, the ranking is seeing those losses in New Jersey and some other lesser performances with Turner out. If Turner is able to contribute for the remainder of the year...and the Hartford game certainly seemed to be a good sign...BG is much more the team that they were when they beat UC...#100, which would put them back in bye territory.
Kenpom was never high on the Falcons...not sure why, but the stats didn't have BG winning the MAC at the start either. It loved UT, which has fallen back to the pack with their current losing streak.
And, of course, they are just projections...let the games begin. BG has five of its first 8 games at home and really needs to get off to a strong start...as they did last year. Kent is always good and appears to be very good this year...and at home...it's a good time to return to form.
Posted by Orange at 11:15 AM 0 comments
Posted by Orange at 12:01 AM 0 comments