MAC Football Standings and discussion

 

So here is where things stand.  This is the best thing ever....

There are a myriad of things that could happen.  As an aside, big multi-team tie-breakers are a recognized weakness of not having divisions.  A lot comes down to a little.  But that's what we have.

As a reminder, the MAC Tiebreaker Policy is here.

With two wins, BG is in, because Miami would have two losses. Miami would be the second team because they beat OU if it is head to head, but it's more complicated if WMU, UT or UB also finishes a with 2 losses.

There is a significant chance that there will be a tiebreaker at two losses. In fact, there's reason to think all of the 2 loss teams win out...leaving those three, plus OU (if they beat Ball State), and either BG or Miami assuming the loser of that game wins their other game.

Of course, it doesn't have to go that way.  OU could beat UT.  EMU could beat UB or WMU, especially UB @ EMU. Miami could lose to NIU.  Ball State is a danger...all four of their conference losses have been by less than a TD. 

Look...OU loses twice, BG or Miami twice, WMU, UB and UT once, and we have a tie-breaker at 3 losses...scenario requires UT to lose to Akron.

We will know more soon--in fact, by the time we head to Muncie, things will be much clearer.

Game on.

Sweet Victory

 The beat goes on for the Falcons...they are playing outstanding football and control their own destiny.  Two wins and they are in the title game.  One win and its still possible, all depending on who ends up where.

This is what we were promised.  It took a long time to get here, but this was the team we promised.  It didn't always look like it would get here, but last night there can be no doubt.  Two more games...playing high-tension November ball.  

WMU won the toss and took the ball.  In what would be a precursor, BG took them three and out.  BG took the punt and went on a 12-play, 4 minute drive that ended with a Zach Long 50 yard FG.  Long--an injury replacement--is turning into a real weapon.

The teams traded punts and then WMU drove down the field and scored a TD...up 7-3, now in the early 2nd, they pooched the kickoff, which was muffed and recovered by WMU. 

Bam Booker took a brutal hit and was out cold.  He was on the field for a long time before he left on a stretcher.  The silence in the stands was scary.  You can't tell much from the stands, but I just watched the replay and I cannot believe that didn't at least get sent to a replay.  It surely looked enough like targeting to get a look.  But, that did not happen.  Also, the technicality of the targeting rules sometimes get by me...but it was a brutal hit to the head.

Last night, BG said that he was awake, speaking and had movement in his extremities.  Best to him on his recovery.

Coach said he went to the sideline and reported to the team that Booker looked like he would be OK. The team clearly responded to that news. The game's key sequence unfolded next.

WMU had the ball on the BG 37.  Saad took a runner down for a loss of 3, Horne came running full force and blew Wolff up for a six-yard loss, and then WMU got 5 yards on 3rd down and punted BG to the 16.

Down 7-3, BG drove the 84 yards in 6 plays for a TD. Starting with a 19 yard Stewart run, 21 yards to Fannin in heavy traffic over the middle on play 2, Johnson for 6 on play 4, Bazelak-Malcon Johnson for 12 to convert on 3rd and 3 and then a 25 yard pass to Fannin on a play Loeffler says they put in two days ago for the score.

Up 14-3, Ja'Cory Benjamin made an incredible pick on the first WMU play from scrimmage.  BG started on the WMU 26, Stewart ran it to the 1 and then Bazelak scored on a tush-pushy play and BG was up 17-7 with 4 left in the half.

Remember, BG gets the ball to start the second half because WMU took the ball to start the game.

WMU got a drive going, getting to the BG 35.  Then, the defense bowed up, forced a 50-yard FG that missed and BG headed into the locker room 17-7.

The game was far from over, but the tone was set.  That sequence after the Booker injury clearly changed the game.

BG took the kickoff, converted a 3rd and 6 on a QB draw, hit Fannin twice for a total of 32 yards and then Strwart ran it in from 17 to put BG up 24-7.  Again, the game is not over, but BG has control of the game.

WMU took the kick, made a first down and then a BG sack on 2nd and 6 followed by a delay of game penalty had the Broncos punting.  On the second play of the drive, Stewart ran to 60 and Bazelak hit Fannin for 10 yards on the second play for the score and it was 31-7 6:30 left to play in the 3rd.

As it turned out, the game was over.  Just bookend the sequence from the Booker injury to that TD and see how BG blew the doors off WMU.

WMU scored on the next drive, but it took them 6 minutes.  BG did a great job making WMU work their way down the field slowly.  Down 24, they went for 2 and missed, leaving BG ahead 31-13, and 18 play lead that still is 3 scores.  The 4th quarter played itself out and the Falcons had a huge home win.

Sweet victory.

First credit goes to the defense. WMU came in leading the MAC in scoring, yards per play, passing efficiency and yards per rush. 

And the BG defense shut them down.  The week before against NIU they had 200 rushing yards...in this one, they had 97 yards on 36 attempts. Wolff was 24 of 32 passing, 2 INT and most importantly 8 yards a completion.  Their longest play was 25 yards--two of them, both passes, and one of them in garbage time.  And 4 sacks.  And 4 of 15 on 3rd down.

BG kept the ball in from of them, denied the run, got a key INT and dominated the best offensive team in the MAC.  I honestly think we call a strong game on defense.  We have guys where they need to be and they are making their share of plays.

The offense relied on its three best players.  There's nothing wrong with having good players. Fannin was 10-137 and 2 TDS.  Has to make first-team All-American. Stewart had 15 carries for 150 yards.  Did not lose any yards.  Scored once. Was a pure force, as he is at his best.

And Conner Bazelak, who is playing really well.  He isn't going to get Matt Johnson numbers because we play different...we ran only 56 plays, for example.  But he does what they need in a complex offense and without even decent WRs. He was 15 of 22 for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns, and probably a half-dozen perfect throws into very small windows.  PFF graded him at 91, a career-high, including all of his schools. His season grade of 82 leads the MAC.

BG averaged 7.2 yards per play.  If that might work for you.

Except for the kickoff muff, BG's special teams were very good.  Long had a long FG. Henderson put them inside the 20 twice on 3 punts. 

Falcons Harvest Guaranteed Win

The Falcons hit the floor at home against NAIA Taylor...it's on the schedule to be a win and that's what happened.  The Falcons beat Taylor 107-43.  Not much to see here except for the first minutes of Jaxon Pardon, who nailed a 3FG, had a steal and then a DUNK for 5 points in 5 minutes.

Next up is Michigan State on Saturday.

WMU Preview....

 What is their body of work?

WMU is the surprise team of the MAC.  They were picked 7th, but have started 4-1 in MAC play.  They won their first 4---@BS, AK, @UB and Kent....before losing to NIU at KZoo last week.  They have played the two worst teams in the MAC--as BG has--to get this far.  The road win @UB certainly  signified they were going to be competitive.

Over the past 10 seasons, BG has played WMU 6 times and there has been a 3-3 split.  A loss to WMU was Coach Jinks' last game.  Loeffler is 2-1 vs. WMU and 1-0 vs. current coach Lance Taylor.

BG is a 9-point home favorite.

How experienced are they?

34 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart.   Old team.

Who are their national leaders?

Jaden Nixon is #10 in all-purpose yards and #4 in yards per carry, #15 in rushing TDs.

Hayden Wolff is #18 in passing efficiency

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games.   This has been huge---8 were against AK and Kent.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Going to be a good QB battle here. Above we mentioned Wolff's number for the season...he is also #1 in MAC play for pass efficiency.  He has 69% completions, 12 TDs over 3 INT and over 12 yards a completion. Bazelak is #3.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC with 41 points a game and 7 yards per play. BG's defense allows 16.4 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They surely can.  They lead the MAC with 6.1 yards per carry. BG allows 4.2 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #1 in pass efficiency. BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 56% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They do.  44%, #2 in MAC.  BG allows 32% which is #5 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.1 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 13 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

Yes, sacks on 4.9% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (34) and 10th in yards per play allowed (6.6).  BG scores 25. which is #7 and 5.6 yards per play which is #7.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Not great, #7 at 4.6 yards per carry allowed. At 3.9 yards per carry, BG's offense is #8. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are #11 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 64% completions, 11 TDs over 5 INT and almost 14 yards a completion, which is a ton.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 68% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

WMU allows 39%, which is #6.  BG converts 32%, which is #9.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5.7 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.3 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Average, they have sacks on 5.1% of passes. BG allows sacks on 10% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #8 in net punting. No blocks.  In MAC play, BG is #1.

Punt Return?

They are OK, #9 in the MAC.  0 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's accurate.  All games he's 9 of 10 with a long of 45.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 27.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 30, which is really good.

Intangible Miscellany

Look, we have waited a long time.  With 3 wins, we go to Detroit.  But winning championships is hard and so is winning 3 more games in a row.  WMU is a good team--probably not as good as their record, but good.  This sets up as a highly competitive matchup.  A very good WMU offense against a very good BG defense.  This would be an awesome time for BG to pull out some plays like they did against UT and really move the ball.  A loss doesn't end the season but makes it much more competitive.  If BG's best team comes out, we will win this one, but I wouldn't expect anything other than a really tough game.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (1-9)  Lost to Bucknell

PSU:  (8-1) Smoked Washington

TX A&M: (7-2) Idle

ODU:  (4-5)  Idle

Akron:  (2-7) #MACTION

NIU: (5-4) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-9) #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) #MACTION

CMU (3-6) #MACTION

WMU: (5-4) #MACTION

BSU (3-6): #MACTION

MU:  (5-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Taylor Preview

Monday, BG has Taylor University in for MBB.  Taylor is an interdenominational, evangelical university in Upland, IN, which is between Fort Wayne and Indy. 

They compete in the NAIA and their nickname is Trojans.  Both John Groce and Chris Holtman are Taylor alumni.

Groce credits Taylor for molding who he became.

They had a legendary coach, Paul Patterson, who is in the NAIA Hall-of-Fame and was the winningest collegiate coach in Indiana history.

Their current coach is Austin Peters, who is in his first season. Most of his experience in coaching is at smaller colleges, but he did work in Drewland at Valpo.

They were 11-18 last year.  Their last winning season was 2019-20.  Their last D1 game was in 2018.  They lost to Miami by 31.

The Trojans are 4-1 this year.  They lost their last game against IU-Kokomo.

They can shoot.  They score 82 points a game, making 47% shooting overall and 38% from 3FG. This equals out to 1.14 points per possession, which is really good.

They allow only 31% 3FG shooting. 

They don't have one big scorer, rather than have a handful of guys in the 10-12 PPG range.  Anton Webb, who is 6'8", average over 12 RPG. 

Overall, they lack height, which is normal in these games.  Normally, the BG bigs have their best game of the season.

Look, this is on the schedule for a win.  Anything other than an easy win where everyone gets on the court is a disappointment.

Davidson holds off Falcon MBB Rally

Bowling Green MBB fell into a hole in the first half last night and despite a much improved second half performance, was unable to close the gap and lost their home opener.

At the first media timeout it was 7-4 but in the next four minutes Davidson went on a 12-2 run, causing Coach Simon to call timeout and replace every player on the floor.  It stayed steady for 10 minutes or so but didn't get better...an 8-0 Davidson run made it a 20 point lead with 4:31 to play.  BG shaved it to 16 at the half.

Davidson shot 53% overall and 46% from 3FG for the half, while BG was 42% and 50%.  Beyond the percentages, Davidson made 7 3FGs, had 2 fewer turnovers and 5 ORebs to BG's 1.

The second half was much different. Sparked by 2 Marcus Johnson 3FGs, BG went on an 11-2 run to cut the lead to 7 less than two minutes into the half.   The game stabilized there, Davidson had the lead to 13 with 13 left to play, but BG had it back to 8 shortly thereafter.  BG made another run and cut the lead to 4 with about 10 to play, but Davidson is a good team and had it back to 9 two possessions later.

It stayed in the 6-7-8 range when Jevontae Campbell made 2 FTs, got a steal and converted a layup, taking the lead from 8-4 with 1:33 left.

It was still 4 with 1:19 left and Trey Thomas got a steal.  Here the best opportunity was presented, but BG missed the shot and Davidson scored on their next possession.  BG had one more shot, Campbell on the line, missed his 2nd FT when BG was down 3.  BG had another shot down 4 and did not score then either and it was over.  91-85 final.

All in all, far from a disaster.  Not a success either.

Game had 76 possessions, third highest D1 game in the Simon era.

BG scored 1.12 points per possession, normally a winning number.  They shot 47% from 2FG and 46% from 3FG.  Unfortunately, they allowed Davidson 1.2 points per possessions, usually a losing number. Those offensive rebounds were key--Davidson was +10 on second chance points.  They were also 23 of 28 at the line, for a +4.  BG was 19 of 25 at the line for a respectable 76%.

Individually...Jevontae Campbell.  Woof. He finished with 30 points, including scoring 15-straight BG points in the stretch run. He made 10-13 on 2FGS and 10-12 at the line for a highly efficient night, adding 4 steals and 4 turnovers. 

Marcus Johnson had 19 in 22 minutes, making 5 of 10 from 3FG. Khayat had 10 on 1 of 2 and 2 of 3 shooting.  Trey Thomas had 10 but it took 9 shots. Sam Towns had 11 rebounds and blocked 4 shots.

BG had seven players over 10 minutes.  Johnson, Towns, Khayat, Campbell and Thomas started, with Butler and Humphrey coming off the bench for more than 10 minutes, and Felt, Squire, Exacte and Green playing less than 10.  BG used 23 lineup combinations, with 10 of them out there for less than one minute.

So, the Falcons hit 0-2.  Next week is a non-D1 game against Taylor and @MSU. The next realistic chance for a D1 win is against Niagara on 11/29.

MBB Home Opener Preview

BG hits their second game and home opener on Friday.  The opponent is the Davidson Wildcats. They are a legit all-time program. They have made 15 Big Dance appearances, making the Elite 8 in 68 and 69.  Of course, you know who else was in that 68 tourney. Those teams were coached by Lefty Driesell. They have been in 3 times in the last 10 years.

Their head coach is Matt McKillop who is in his third year, replacing his legendary father Bob.  He is 31-33 in that time.

They play in the Atlantic-10, where they were picked 12th in the A10 poll, 11th in Blue Ribbon.  Here's the thing.  The A-10 is the 7th ranked conference in kenpom.  Based on the kenpom rankings, 10 teams in the A-10 would be ranked ahead of the best team in the MAC.  That includes Davidson---and UMASS, in the MAC next year.

They beat a non-D1 opponent in their opener.

Return 4 starters.  Interestingly, there is no graduate school at Davidson, so grad transfers, or even your own guys using their grad year, cannot happen.

They have played BG twice.  There was a home-home in 86-87, with each team winning on their home floor.  Davidson is 9-9 vs. teams currently in the MAC. 

Looking at a few players, Reed Bailey was third-team All-A10 in the preseason. He scored 12.7 PPG and added 5.8 RPG as a sophomore last year.  He's 6'10.

They also have Sean Logan, another 6'10" player.  Didn't put up big numbers last year, but he did block 58 shots, bad news given BG was blocked 10 times last game.

That's not all...they also have Joe Hurlbert, a Colorado transfer.  He is also 6'10". Played only 26 minutes in Colorado, but they had some NBA big men ahead of him.

Connon Kochera is a 6'5 G who transferred two years ago from William & Mary,  He scored 13 PPG last year and made 36% from 3FG.

Bobby Durkin is a sophomore G who drained a game-winning 3FG to beat Maryland last year.  Zach Laput is a DII transfer who is a 6'4" G and was in double figures in their opener.

This is an outstanding test for BG.  Davidson is a 4.5 point road favorite.

MAC Football Update, 11/7

 So here is what things look like today.  Six teams are still in play. 

A few thoughts:  If BG wins out, they are in the title game.  Both WMU and Miami would have two losses and OU would be in if they won out.

UT and UB need three of the one-loss teams to lose to get into a tiebreaker. That could easily happen.

First, they need to win out.  UB has the easier route...UT hosts OU in what will be a touch game.

It wouldn't surprise me if all four of the one loss teams dropped a game coming home.  Miami could lose to NIU.  WMU  could lose to BG.  BG could lose to Miami. OU could lose to UT.  Talk above havoc. A six-way tie with two spots to fill.  (By the way, I think--could be wrong--BG wins this tiebreaker under that scenario--and UT and WMU battle for the other spot.

I like the position we are in.  We are playing meaningful games in November and are matched with two of the three teams we are tied with and both at home.  Long way to go.  This is a hard race to win.  But I think we have a shot.

Let's get it done.  Run the damn ball.

Falcons Get Road Win

Sometimes it was a little rough, but it's November, we're chasing a berth in the title game and we're on the road.  We needed to win and we did.

It was typical MACTION.  The stands were mostly empty.  Atypically, there was a monsoon in the 3rd quarter (though only for a few minutes).  Like most MACTION games, it had an element of the surreal to it.

BG dominated the first 27 minutes of the game or so. BG had 186 yards of total offense in the first half, but stalled first on the 12, then on the 22 (with 2 crucial BG penalties costing them) and then on the 19.  BG hit FGs all three times and led 9-0.  Still, you have to figure it should have been more.

With inside 3 minutes to play in the half, BG had CMU on 3rd and 6.  Jefferson broke away and ran for 44 yards to the BG 27.  A DPI followed and a couple plays later, CMU scored and converted all those stalled BG drives into being down only 9-7, and they would get the ball coming out of the half.

Jefferson went back to pass on the first play, Anthony Hawkins hit his arm before he threw and BG recovered.  Even so, BG was preparing to stall again, facing a 4th and 4 from the CMU 33.  In a key play, Bazelak went back to pass, was pressured, scrambled free and hit Malcom Johnson for a 20-yard gain and a critical first down.  Two plays later, Levi Gazerak caught a pass and drove into the end zone, and BG led 16-7.  The terms of the game were set for the rest of the way.

BG got a three and out and then the offense, going for the kill, drove to the CMU 8 before the drive stalled out.  BG attempted a short FG (27 yards) that was blocked and CMU ran it back to their own 31.  Here's a chance for a big change for CMU, though their momentum was blunted by the 3 minute media timeout that followed the block.

CMU brought in a new QB, a true FR, and they drove to the BG 28.  On 4th and 2, Lukes broke free on the right side and gained 22 yards to the BG 6 and it looked like CMU might be back in the game.  Alas, they were called for a block in the back, set back to 4th and 4.  They ran Lukes again, but this time BG shut him down a yard short and CMU's chance to seize the game was lost.

Starting the 4th, a 56-yard Henderson punt put CMU on the 2.  BG got the 3 and out and then CMU shanked the punt, covering only 26 yards to the CMU 33.  With 11 minutes left, BG had a chance to close the door and they did. 

BG covered the 33 yards in 8 plays, killing 5:26 off the clock, perhaps the slowest 33-yard drive in history.  Seven of the plays were runs.  Patterson converted a 4th and 1 from the 5 and then went into the end zone on the next play to put BG up 23-7 with 5:42 to play.  The lead is the very, very long side of two possessions.

It's important to note that CMU had one completed pass and 6 yards FOR THE GAME at this point.  They picked it up on this drive. They started on the 25, and BG was playing prevent.  It's frustrating, but it took the Chips 11 plays to score...spending just under 4 minutes--making a comeback practically impossible. They went for 2.  BG lined up Horne at LB and then pre-snap he moved to the left edge while the 3 other down linemen shifted to the right.  I don't know if it confused CMU or what, but when they snapped it Horne ran around the end unblocked and hit Lukes before he could get to the line and sealing the victory.

BG gained 6 yards a play to 4.8 for CMU.  Stewart had 20 carries for 117, padded a little bit with some runs as BG on the last possession. Patterson had a huge game with 75 yards on 9 carries.   The CMU defense won their share of the battles with the BG line on Stewart runs, especially in the first half.

Bazelak had an OK night .  He was 19 of 30 for 207 yards.  There were some missed throws.  It was also VERY WINDY.

On national TV, Harold Fannin had 7 receptions for 86 yards.  In all, 9 Falcons caught passes.

CMU's QB woes certainly hurt them.  They finished with 63 passing yards. They tried to make up for it with a strong running game, and finished with 187 yards on 38 attempts, a 4.9 average.  A lot of that was the QB.  Their main RB, Lukes, was held to 72 in 20 carries, a 3.6 average and a victory for the BG defense.

BG committed 12 penalties for 88 yards, which Loeffler admitted had given him bad flashbacks

Again, not a great game but the game was won.  Next up, a huge battle with WMU, who plays tonight against NIU.  MACTION from The Doyt.

MBB Loses Opener

BG went to Hattiesburg to open the season and lost to the Golden Eagles 77-68.  Since BG did not play any exhibition games (opting for closed scrimmages), it was our first time to see the team with 10 new players.

It was a competitive game, but USM was in control almost the whole way.  BG led for less than a minute. USM led for the last 35 minutes, though never more than 12.  BG made a couple runs to get it close but USM always punched back.

BG was down 11 early in the second half...BG got hot from the outside and got it to 2 with 14:58 left. But it was back to 7 a minute later.

In the closing minutes, BG cut the lead to 5 with 1:35 left.  They had two possessions to try and cut it below that, but came up empty both times and that ended up being their last chance.

The game was fast paced, at 74 possessions. BG struggled on offense, scoring .92 points per possession. We expected to see a lot of 3FGs and we did.  BG took 42% of their shots from distance.  They were reasonable accurate, making 36%.  However, they made only 42% of their 2FGs, had a high number of turnovers, did not crash the offensive boards and only got to the line 8 times,  making 4.  (One other note, added after the original post...USM blocked 10 BGSU shots, which is 26% of our total shot attempts and almost half of our missed 2FGs. I can't remember us giving up that many.)

USM had 1.04 points per possession. They made only 23% from 3FG, but scorched the BG interior defense, making 64% from 2FG. (Last year's national average was 50%).  They also turned the ball over and didn't offensive rebound, but were 12 of 14 at the line.

USM had 19 points off turnovers, which I don't usually look at.  It seemed to me that USM was especially effective in taking missed shots and live ball turnovers and turning them into easy baskets.

BG played a relatively tight 8-man rotation. The announcers said that BG played two closed scrimmages and has used a different starting lineup every time out.

Starters were Johnson (32 minutes), Butler (27), Thomas (30), Towns (29) and Campbell (32).  Off the bench were Green (13) Khayat (11), Exacte (10), Squire (7), Humphrey (4) and Felt (2).  Mahmoud appeared to be in street clothes, and Pardon and Adem DNP.

USM played only 6 guys 10 minutes or more.  BG used 23 lineup combinations and USM used 9. The best lineup was the starting line up, +5.

Thomas and Butler led the team with 17 points each.  Thomas was really effective, making 5 of 7 from 3FG.  Butler was 4 of 8 from 2 FG and 3 of 10 from 3FG.  Marcus Johnson had 15 with 4 of 8 from 2 and 2 of 5 from 3.  Campbell also had 14, 5 of 10 from 2FG and 4 of 6 at the line.  He also had 4 assists, 4 steals and 3 TOs.

Sam Towns had 0 points and 10 rebounds.

So, one we go.  Tough game Friday night against Davidson.  

CMU Preview...Will the Beat Go On?

What is their body of work?

CMU is a traditional MAC power who has been in the wilderness for quite a while.  They rode the Brian Kelly/Butch Jones train to 2 10+ win seasons in 6 years, including a 12-2 ranked year in 2009. There were 3 MAC Championships in there.

In the 9 seasons with Dan Enos and John Bonamego, they won 8 games only once and were 1-11 in the last of those years.  In comes Jim McElwain.  There are a number of ways to bring coaches to the MAC.  You can get an up-and-comer--head coach or assistant.  Or, you can try to rehab a P4 coach...like Jim McElwain, who won 65% of his games at Florida before being fired.

He has won 49% in Mt. Pleasant, with 12-20 over the past three years (including this year), and is said to be on the hot seat.

They are 3-5 and 1-3.  They won their FCS game, beat SD State in Mt. Pleasant, and beat Ball State.  Losses are @FIU (blowout), @Ill, OU, @MU and @EMU.  They have lost 3 in a row.

BG and CMU haven't played much.  Only 3 times since 2010.  BG is 2-1 in that time, with a win by Carl Pelini and Loeffler splitting.  BG won the last meeting in 2022.  BG has won 3 straight at Kelly/Shorts Stadium and the last BG coach to lose there was Gregg Brandon.

BG is a 10 point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

29 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart. 

Who are their national leaders?

Donte Kent is #10 in punt returns.

Jordan Kwiatkowski is #17 in TFL.

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +3 in MAC play.  They have only one TO in MAC games.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Big issues here.  They started with Joe Labas, an Iowa transfer, who is out for the year.  They were to Bert Emmanuel, Jr., and he is now week-to-week and out this week.  This leaves them with Tyler Jefferson, a R-FR from Florida. He's only completed 49% with 0TDs and 1 INT. He is a dual-threat guy.  He started the EMU game, and Emmanuel came in and sparked a wild game they lost. He went the whole way against Miami's stout defense and struggled as expected.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 25 PPG (7th) and gain 6.1 yards per play (5th). BG's defense allows 17.3 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They are strong here. #2 at 5.8 yards per rush.  Also, note that they have a running QB, something the Falcons have really struggled with. BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #11 in team passing efficiency.  Also their top WR, Evan Boyd, will not play.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 64% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  28% overall, #10 in the MAC.  BG allows 30% which is #4 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.5 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 11 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

No...sacks on 10% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36.3) and 9th in yards per play allowed (6.5).  BG scored 25.5 which is #8 and 5.5 yards per play which is #9.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 60% completions, 9 TDs over 1 INT and almost 13 yards a completion.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 69% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

CMU allows 33%, which is #5.  BG converts 33%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.7 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Good pass rush, they have sacks on 9.4% of passes. BG allows sacks on 11% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #4 in net punting. They have been blocked once.  In MAC play, BG is #4.

Punt Return?

They are good, #6 in the MAC.  1 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's very good.  All games he's 11 of 13, 8-8 under 40 with a long of 54.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 25, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

So, look.  Rainy weather.  Certain to be a mostly empty stadium. BG coming off a big win and needs to refocus, which has been a problem for our program over the past few years.  CMU is not healthy.  This should be a good matchup for us and BG needs to click the W heading into a big game against WMU at the Doyt the following Tuesday.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (1-8)  Broke 11-game losing streaking by beat Colgate

PSU:  (7-1) Lost to OSU, suspect you saw this

TX A&M: (7-2) Lost @South Carolina

ODU:  (4-5)  Lost to App. State

Akron:  (2-7) Lost to Buffalo

NIU: (4-4) Resting for #MACTION

KSU:  (0-8) Resting for #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) Heart-stopping win over EMU

CMU (3-5) Resting for #MACTION

WMU: (5-3) Resting for #MACTION

BSU (3-5): Resting for #MACTION

MU:  (4-4) Resting for #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Here is how things look.  WIDE OPEN right now.  There is a strong possibility of a tie, so if you are curious here are the official tie breaker rules. Deep tie-breakers are an unanticipated consequence of getting rid of divisions, as multiple conferences are now realizing.  Best case is that head-to-head solves the issue.

The Opener...Southern Mississippi

MBB hits the road to open the season, heading down to Hattiesburg, MS to play Southern Mississippi in the road swing of the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge, which I love.  The other game will be at the Stroh and will be determined by the standings in order to engineer competitive matchups.

Southern Miss athletic alumni include Hall of Famers Brett Farve and Ray Guy. Not so much on the basketball side.  Wendell Ladner, the father of the current coach, was all-ABA rookie.  There was a Clarence Weatherspoon who played a few years in the NBA.

They have been to the NCAA tournament three times, the last time in 2013, a season that vaulted Larry Eustachy on to Iowa State.  Things went bad when they hired Donnie Tyndall, who coached two spectacular years there when it was revealed, among other things, that he had staff doing coursework for the players.  The NCAA called it "audacious." Those two years were vacated and he lost his job at Tennessee.

Today, he coaches at Chipola JC...where Chris Jans once coached and incoming Falcon Derrick Butler played.

I digress.

They moved to the Sun Belt two years ago.  They won the regular season title that year, and then last year had a super rough year.  PG Neftali Alvarez broke his foot in the pre-season and was out for the year.  Andre Curbelo, Illinois/St. John's transfer, was finally made eligible and then had a concussion and did not contribute meaningfully again.

Also, their head coach suffered a heart attack on February 6 and did not have a meaningful role for the remainder of the year.

So, a tough year.  They are back this year.  They were picked 5th in the official pre-season poll and 4th by Blue Ribbon.

They have played two exhibition games--against low-D1 New Orleans (they won 105-102) and Jackson State (also won, 92-85 in OT).  They were down 19 to Jackson State with 15 left to play before rallying. Neither of these are great signs for the team gelling early in the year.

They played a pretty straight 7-man rotation against Jackson State.  The players included:

Andre Curbelo...as mentioned, two-time transfer.  Plays internationally for Puerto Rico. He is 3rd-team All Sun Belt pre-season.  Had 29 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals vs. Jackson State.  He is 6'0".  Drew 11 fouls in that game.

Denijay Harris was their other leading player.  He's 6'7" and NOT A TRANSFER. He had 25 points, 13 rebounds and made 9 of 14 2FGs. He's in his sixth year.

Christian Watson had 15 points and 8 boards.  He's 6'6" and was highly recruited before going to The Other Miami and playing sparingly for the Final Four team.

DeAntoni Green and 10 points and 7 rebounds. He is 6'6" and was All-OVC at Little Rock.  Has played 91 games.

Neftali Alvarez, coming off that broken foot, struggled in the Jackson State game. Playing his 7th season of college ball.

Cobie Montgomery is a 6'4" G and came off the bench. Hit 34% from 3FG.

Alfred Worrell, JR. Played about 10 minutes. Big 3FG shooter in JUCO.

This is an OLD team.  Of the 7 players I listed above, 5 of them are listed as R-SR or Grad Students and 2 are juniors/

Kenpom gives them a pretty good home court advantage at 3.3 points, #101 in the country.  BG's is 3.

Last year, they lost @Akron to kick off the challenge and then destroyed WMU in the home game, illustrating how much their fortunes faded over the season.

ESPN gives the Golden Eagles a 72% chance of winning.  I don't see a point spread.  Having said that, given a slow Southern Miss start, I think BG has a better shot than that, while being an underdog on the road is expected. 

MBB Preview

Monday, Men's Basketball is back. Doing these previews has gotten to be pretty impossible, given the number of new players we have each year.  Basically, I don't have any idea how good we are going to be and I don't think anyone does.  The only one with an idea is the staff.

One thing I think we can say for sure is that this team appears to be a lot better aligned with how Coach Simon wants to play.  Last year's team shot 29.6% from 3FG, 11th in the MAC.  BG was #5 in scoring thanks to Marcus Hill and his ability to get to the rim, and Rashaun Agee rebounding all those missed shots.

The guys who are coming in are much more likely to be 3FG shooters.

Also, BG probably wants to play faster.  We were #161 in the country and #4 in the MAC in tempo. The MAC was the #25 conference out of 33 in pace of play, so I suspect that BG would like to be at least at the top of that pile.

Just to re-orient ourselves:

Returning Contributors:

Trey Thomas G 6' 0'' 160 Sr. Toronto, Ontario, Canada / Crestwood Prep Vanderbilt

Former SEC player who battled injuries last year.  If healthy, I see him being the glue for this team as they gel.

DaJion Humphrey G 6' 4'' 185 Sr. Detroit, Mich. / Southfield Christian Garden City CC

Started 13 games, averaged 5.7 PPG.

Sam Towns F 6' 9'' 200 Sr. Columbus, Ohio / Pickerington Central Ohio

Strong contributor, played 19 games last year.  

Returning:

Jamai Felt F 6' 10'' 210 R-Fr. Boston, Mass. / Our Saviour Lutheran

Two years of knee injuries, Felt is 6'10" and if he is back to being healthy he has huge upside.  Has yet to play for BG.  Simon told Blue Ribbon that he might be the most athletic big man in the MAC...Huger thought the same.

New:

Alijah Adem  G 6' 2'' 160 Fr. Las Vegas, Nev. / Spring Valley

One of two FR on the roster. Is from Nevada, averaged 26 points and 7.8 assists per game.  The latter number led the state.

Derrick Butler G 6' 2'' 195 Sr. Charlotte, N.C. / Quality Education Academy (N.C.) Central Michigan

Started 26 games for CMU last year, led team in 3FG and 3FG%. Had 17 points in Stroh against BG.

Javontae Campbell G 6' 2'' 155 Jr. Muskogee, Okla. / Muskogee Northern Oklahoma

#67 JUCO recruit.  Scored 26 PPG and 31% 3FG. #2 JUCO scorer.  Was injured but played on the BG foreign trip.

Wilguens Jr. Exacte F 6' 6'' 236 So. Montreal, Canada / College Notre Dame Utah

Played in Latin American NBA Academy.  Missed all of last year with injury, played 32 games as FR. Also a stretch.  Could be rehabbing.

Braelon Green G 6' 3'' 180 So. Southfield, Mich. / Southern California Academy Arizona State

Averaged 5.5 minutes per game at Az. State. Highly recruited out of Michigan. Will play 1 and 2 for BG.

Marcus Johnson F 6' 7'' 265 Sr. Akron, Ohio / St. Vincent-St. Mary Wheeling

DII player.  Shot 45% from 3FG.  Kind of an Anderson Mirambeaux-body. Was hurt this summer.

Youssef Khayat F 6' 9'' 215 Jr. Beirut, Lebanon / Limoges CSP (France) Michigan

Averaged about 6 minutes per game in two years at UM. Had huge game against Spain in Olympic Qualifier. Simon says is a "three level scorer."

Mohamed Maxamud F 6' 10'' 190 Jr. Westerville, Ohio / Westerville Labette CC

Averaged 9.2 PPG and 4.4 RPG in JC

Jaxon Pardon G 6' 4'' 170 Fr. Fort Wayne, Ind. / Carroll

Other FR on roster.  Son of BG legend Brandon Pardon. 1,000 point HS scorer.

Preston Squire F 6' 11'' 225 So. Ephraim, Utah / Layton Salt Lake Community College

Stretch-4 like Jason Spurgin.  37% 3FG shooter.

OK, big picture.

The MAC has four signature programs: OU, UT, Kent and Akron. They are good almost every year. The fight, including BG, MU, BS and CMU, is who breaks into that group.  There can't be 8 competitive teams.

Who can break in?

Blue Ribbon picked BG #5 as did the MAC.  Kenpom projects BG #7.  Kenpom ranks BG #264 which is compared to the #239 from last year, projecting 14-15 and 8-10.

When I look at the roster, it seems like we might be a tough team to stop and have a shot with our coaches, but who really knows.  There certainly seems to be depth.

We had a foreign trip this year.  I always think that's a good way for a team to build a cohesive core before the season starts.

BG has 2 non-D1 games on the schedule.  They play @MSU and host Davidson, which is the top non-conference game. We don't have to play in the JAR.

I'm excited and looking forward to the season. I like our Coaches and I think they give us a shot and I think we will see a fast-paced, exciting team.  Off we go.

Happy Halloween to the Falcon Nation

 

Weekly Presser

Coach had literally nothing of interest today, nor was he asked anything that could elicit anything interesting.

He got the question of how the staff adjusts to the mid-week schedule...again.  Clawson used to roll his eyes and one time said "I can't believe you guys keep asking about that."

Anyway.  Some other information.

Nick Reimer is no longer on the roster. He was a transfer who played significant snaps in the first two games, was injured, came back for the Kent game and then was listed as unavailable for the UT game.  And now is gone.  This comes amid three weeks of oblique comments from Loeffler about the drama on the team and the previous departures of Billie Roberts and Jaylon Tillman.  After UT, Loeffler said "it should be behind us now," possibly in connection with this latest roster development.

As for as RJ Garcia, I have nothing to report.  He was supposedly healthy, dressed once and since then is listed as unavailable.  No idea.  I can tell you that he used his redshirt at Kansas State.  Also, his brother is a verbal commit to BG and still has it listed on his x.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-8)  Lost to Lehigh

PSU:  (7-0) Beat Wisconsin

TX A&M: (7-1) Beat LSU, big win.  Elko can coach.

ODU:  (4-4)  Smoked Georgia Southern

Akron:  (2-6) ZIPS WIN!!  Beat EMU

NIU: (4-4) The curse of beating ND.  Ball State hits 52 yarder to win

KSU:  (0-8) Smoked by WMU

UT:  (5-3) LOST TO BOWLING GREEN

CMU (3-5) Lost 46-7 to Miami

WMU: (5-3) Blasted Kent

BSU (3-5): Beats NIU on 52 yard FG

MU:  (4-4) Beat CMU 46-7

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Here is how things look.  WIDE OPEN right now.  There is a strong possibility of a tie, so if you are curious here are the official tie breaker rules.

Rockets Vanquished. Jubilation Reigns.

Welcome Home, Baby.

 

In my season preview this year, I cited this situation:

BG-UT, 4th Quarter.  Defense gets a 3 and out and BG has the ball, up 6, with 5:42 left.  UT has 2 timeouts left.  A couple first downs, and the game should be over.  At a minimum, you should be able to force UT to use their timeouts by running the ball.  Unfortunately, BG has no confidence in their ability to run the ball, and goes three and out with 2 pass plays, both incomplete.  They make 0 yards and kill only 1:06.

I said we were a championship team when we put that game away on offense.

Yesterday, BG gets the ball with 8:34 left in the game, up 8. Very similar.  Fannin for 18, Stewart for 18, and little Rahkim Smith bullies the Rocket backs (#21 I see you) to get into the end zone on a 19-yard jet sweep...and BG was up 15.  That's a 5-play drive where BG executed while bleeding time.  It was a 3:23 drive that made it a two score game with 5 to play.  

That's what I'm talking about.

The defense got a four-and-out and the Falcons took the ball over with 4:23 left.  They didn't score, but they made a first down and killed 3:17 off the clock despite the Rockets using their timeouts and the 2 minute time out.  

That's what I'm talking about.

So, so, proud.  This is the team we hoped we would see.  Nothing's decided, but it was an absolutely glorious day...good weather, a big crowd, and a great BG win in the biggest game on the schedule.

Thank you to our guys.  Everyone...coaches, staff, players, families...best band in the MAC...Coach talked afterward about a week of no sleep, apparent drama within the team, putting plays into the game plan until Friday afternoon.  Winning is no accident.  Thank you from the fans for the thrill you gave us yesterday.  I can't wait to watch this team again.

 And if you have seen the stoic Coach Loeffler, have no doubt how much this game means to him.

BG played a really good game.  Starting with the offense, BG had the kind of line play they needed to win in the MAC, especially as the weather begins to turn. Reimer was not dressed, but BG got an outstanding game, especially on pass blocking.  Bazelak threw 30 passes and was only pressured on 5 of them.  PFF graded Jake Burns at 85, Pabst 79 and Padgett at 72, meaning that the up the middle rushes that were killing us did not happen.  Bazelak was sacked twice.

BG finally ran the ball effectively.  Here, I would give credit to the players, but also the coaches.  Our playcalling was at its best.  Other times, I have felt like we continued to run the ball into the line, but BG was really tough to defend....there was a great deal of misdirection...from counters to jet sweeps, and BG showed some creativity in getting its runners into space.  And we executed.

Stewart was 21-99, with a long of 25 and 1 TD.  He was productive, to be sure. We didn't win all of his carries, but plenty.  Jamal Johnson 5-54, Rahkeem Smith, 2-33 and Fannin 2-12---a combined 9-99--that is some incredible counter-production.  And, I think, largely decisive. BG also used Bazelak a couple of times on options.  It was a winning game plan executed well.

BG ran 37 times and passed 27 times.  Bazelak was 17 of 27, with NO INT.  He is playing really well.  BG had 171 yards passing.  Fannin caught 6, Johnson caught 4 and Smith 3.  Levi Gazerak, a true warrior, caught his first TD pass in his career.

(Levi is from North Baltimore, and Coach was in his first days as our coach.  His staff told him they were going to go to North Baltimore to talk to a recruit and he yelled at them that we were supposed to be recruiting locally.)

Defensively, it was a high quality game, starting with two Oladukon picks.  This is so great.  He was the guy who started the team this winter in announcing when they were staying and NOT entering the portal.  This is a guy we need.  He had two picks and one of them, a beautiful INT where he sat on a route to Newton and took it into the end zone, blunting UT just as they were getting some momentum.  He graded 90 from PFF.

Gleason was 30 of 45 for 320 yards.  Newton and Vandeross are high-quality receivers and Candle is an offensive coach and they got the ball a lot.  BG did get pressure on Gleason, as he dropped back 50 times and was pressed on 13 of them.  In particular, I felt like he was really disoriented in the last minutes of the game, when BG's defense was closing it out.  He was wildly inaccurate and made a bad decision to run for a first down on a key 4th down play.

UT came in not running the ball well.  Without Jacquez Stuart, who carried once, they lack the star power they need.  Walenzak carried 15 times for 58 yards, but 200 yards worth of praise from Reghi.

Sipp had 11 tackles and 2 for loss.  Huge game.  Brock Horne had 10 tackles and graded over 80 for run defense and tackling on PFF.

Special teams? BG's punting was not as good as normal, with net punting at 37.  We did keep their punt return from being a factor.  And Zach Long nailed two FGs, from 47 and 35, and all his extra points.  Kickoffs were good except for a weird decision to kick short twice late in the game, giving up yardage and putting the ball in Newton's hands 2 extra times.

Anyway, a complete game.  And a rivalry win.  Loeffler is 3-3 against the Rockets.  This is how it is supposed to be.  A long-time Falcon fan on Twitter noted that Loeffler is the first coach we have had in quite a while who treated the rivalry as importantly as it should be...as in, it's not life and death because it is more important than that.

Well, things look much better now.  With one loss in league play and games against WMU and Miami (two other contenders), BG is playing meaningful November football and has its fate largely in its own hands.  As Coach said, the biggest thing in college football today is winning a big game and then losing one the next week.  They are all tough.  This is why it is hard to win titles.  On to Mt. Pleasant.

Hated Rival Preview

What is their body of work?

Look, these guys are in the same place every year.  Big start, Briggs writes columns about them running the table and making the playoff, by mid-year they are done with that, and yet they are always in the hunt for the MAC title.  They have the best recruiting in the MAC and have been consistently better than BG over a long period.

Last year, the portal bug hit them really for the first time, with DeQuan Finn heading to Baylor and Peny Boone to UCF.

Having said that, the last two games have been absolute classics. In each game, the road team snatched victory with a gut-punching late play. We're back on a Saturday--next year in BG on a Saturday--and we hope it's a good one.

BG is a 3.5 point road dog.

How experienced are they?

28 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart.  More experienced on defense.

Who are their national leaders?

Braden Awls is #12 in INT per game.

Avery Smith is #8 on passes defended

Bryson Hammer is #3 in punt returns

Jerjuan Newton is #5 in receiving TDs

Maxen Hook is #6 in Solo tackles.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +1...9 turnovers lost and 10 gotten.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

So, we don't know who is going to start.  Tucker Gleason was the starter and was injured at UB.  John Alan Richter took his place, rallied them and then QB'd the Rockets past NIU last week. Gleason has played quite a bit and was #2 in the MAC in passing efficiency when he went down.  Richter had a rougher game against a good NIU defense.  Neither one of these guys is DeQuan Finn, but both are high-quality MAC QBs.

What is their scoring and yards per play

The Rockets score 29.6 PPG, which is #4 in the MAC. They only get 5.4 yards per play, which is middle of the pack. BG's defense allows 21.4 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

It is not what it once was. They are averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.8 per rush, 9th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in passing efficiency.  BG is #3 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They have run and passed almost equally, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  37% overall, #7 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

4.5 points per trip, which is not great.  They have 9 empty red zone trips.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.8 points per trip allowed, #9 in the nation. BG has forced 4 scoreless trips and 10 FGs in 31 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

They do...sacks on 4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 9.5% of passing attempts.

Defense:

UT does not have the high-powered offense they have had in the past.  They do however, have what is probably their best defense.

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #2 in scoring defense in the MAC (19.6) and 2nd in yards per play allowed (4.9).  BG scored 25.1 which is #5 and 5.8 yards per play which is #3.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #4 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, lead the MAC with 8 INT, They do allow over 11 yards per reception.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 67% completion is #2 in MAC. BG has 11.4 yards per completion.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

UT allows 35%, which is #5.  BG converts 39%, which is #3.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 4.8 per trip, which is pretty good. Forced 11 FGs in 26 attempts.   BG offense scored 4.5 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, they have sacks on 6.3% of passes. BG allows sacks on 6.9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #6 in net punting.  No blocks, 0 TD.  FWIW, BG is #20 in the nation in net punting.

Punt Return?

They are good, #9 in the country.  Plus one blocked kick.

Placekicking? 

He's pretty good.  8 of 10, long of 48, only 1 miss under 40.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 29, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

On the plus side, BG has tended to show up to play for this game.  They will need to. BG has yet to beat a team with an FBS win...and the FCS team we beat is winless, too.  BG will need to bring the A&M game to have a shot.

I think it's going to be a relatively low scoring game.  I think the key for BG is going to come on the offensive line.  This is a big boy assignment and BG needs to run the ball and protect Bazelak. We also need to have our WRs get open--that will be a big assignment against this defense. With that, BG has a real shot.

The stadium will be filled and hopping.  It would be a huge win for the program and give us a real shot at making it to Detroit.  We can still make it with a loss, but probably would need to win out.

Football Verbals

After strong consideration and discussion with my family and coaches I have decided to decommit from the University of New Hampshire. With that being said after an amazing visit I have decided to flip my commitment to Bowling Green State University! Thank you @Coach_Jackson… pic.twitter.com/rRneBMB0Iu

— Jahai Johnson (@JahaiJohnson) October 20, 2024

We Home🏠 #committed @Coach_Jackson @CoachLoefflerBG @CamdenDietz @AllenTrieu @BG_Football pic.twitter.com/JnOyvfkVk9

— Preston EstoEsta (@Prestoestoe) October 22, 2024

H/T to Rhys Patrykus of Falcon Media for discovering this.

Jahai Johnson is from Piscateway, NJ.  He's a DB/ATH.  According to 247, he had an FBS offer from Jacksonville State, along with half a dozen other FCS offers. He also played WR and Kick returner, one time returning 3 Kickoffs for a TD in one game, believed to be a national record.

The other is Preston Estoesta.  He's a S from Mason, Ohio. He had offers from Akron, Army, Kent, UMass, Navy and 2 FCS offers.

Allen Trieu said he had a good run of Spring camps. 

Welcome to BG, Preston and Jahai.

Loeffler Presser

Scott Loeffler had his presser today.

Not mentioned were two apparent changes in the roster.  As I noted in the game write-up, Jaylon Tillman is no longer on the roster.  Upon closer review, Billie Roberts is also no longer list.

Tillman was a transfer from Grand Valley who played 112 snaps, was targetted twice and had zero receptions, per PFF.  Billie Roberts is from Muskegon and was at one point highly recruited.  He started on DL, and made two big plays in the Minnesota upset.  He moved to O-line this year and played nearly 60 snaps in both the A&M game and the ODU game, while Reimer was injured.

The only real news the Coach had, other than answering a bunch of questions about the rivalry...

Quick note.  Why does everyone at our press conference preface their questions with the word "obviously."  It's bizarre.

Anyway, the only real news was that Coach was asked about the WRs and he said he expects "all of them" to play.  Presumably, that would mean Johnson, Garcia, Hogan and Smith, with Jamal Johnson available as well.   And the conference's best receiver, Harold Fannin Jr.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-7)  Idle

PSU:  (6-0) Idle

TX A&M: (6-1) Beat Miss State

ODU:  (3-4)  Beat Texas St.

Akron:  (1-6) Idle

NIU: (4-3)  Lost to UT in DeKalb

KSU:  (0-7) Lost to us

UT:  (5-2) Beat NIU

CMU (3-4) Lost to EMU

WMU: (4-3) Beat UB 48-41. 3-0 in MAC

BSU (2-5): Lost to Vanderbilt

MU:  (3-4) Beat OU

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

BG Gets Expected Win.

The win BG had to have....they got.  As Coach said after the game, "no disrespect, but we are better than they are, this is what should have happened."  And it did.

On to the Rockets.

Much of the first half was uncomfortably close.  Kent's coach noted that BG was focused on McCray and Floreia, so the run game did open up.  They had 8 rushes for 68 yards in the first quarter.  With the score 13-6, Kent drove deep into BG territory but the BG pash rush forced two incompletions and Kent had to settle for a FG.  (Ulatowski was running for his life almost the entire day...no one has run from danger this much since the last Jurassic Park movie).

The key sequence came next.  With 2:39, BG actually ran a two-minute drill.  Working flat passes, they moved down the field, got a DPI in the end zone and then Lucian Anderson ran it in to make the score 20-6 at the half.  That was huge.

The rest of the game was much more one-sided.  BG only scored once more, but held the ball for 21 minutes of the second half.  Kent ran only 25 plays for 41 yards--10 plays for 3 yards in the 3rd Quarter. The game was never in doubt in the second half, 27-6 final.

Coach said we had some adversity this week.  He chose not to elaborate, but remembering that Monday he talked about dealing with "NIL, portal and redshirts," I think we have an idea of what he was talking about.  As always, I'm just putting things together.

I know this....BG started the game with 3 WRs who have played before.  The pre-game injury list had Garcia, Tillman and Hogan out.  Tillman is no longer listed on the roster.  Then, Johnson was injured during the game.  Anthony Wayne's Winn Sharp was out there, and Jared Merk (RFR) made an incredible catch on an absolute hummer thrown behind him to convert a 3rd and 13 on the late 2nd Quarter TD drive.

Interestingly, Coach said after the game that when it comes to WR, some guys we have who haven't been producing have to start producing.  There aren't many of them, so you can probably ID who he means.

In addition, Darrius Lorfils and Dierre Kelly were on the "out" list this week.

BG rode the backs of their three offensive stars.  Bazelak had a great game.  Some people in our section were heckling him, but he was 23 of 27 for 313 yards.  Two TDs, no INT.  Yes, he had a lot of high-percentage passes, but he was also executing the game plan.

And then there's Harold Fanin Jr.  From a back shoulder fade that had Coach Loeffler dreamy-eyed....to catching a pass against his head and then finishing the run, Fannin does not disappoint.  He was 10 for 171, with 91 after contact.  PFF graded him 96.6 overall.

Stewart also had his first big game in a couple weeks.  He had 25 carries (thank you) for 134, which is a 5.4 average.   Patterson was 6 of 25.  BG ran the ball effectively...as they should have.

On defense, the second half tells the story...when BG figured out how to stop the run and the pass.

Ulatowski dropped back 29 times, and was pressured on 13.  His most common pass play was throwing it away. He was 7 of 27, 78 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT,  The Flashes came in with a full #MACTION tag on offense...we now know something about the  Ball State and EMU defenses.

Those 78 yards would have been like two completions in those previous weeks.  BG held McCray to 21 yards on 3 catches in 8 targets. Floreia was 2 for 35.  Great job by the BG secondary. Oladokun had McCray most of the time and held him to 5 yards total.  Not per catch.

BG got the win they had to have and should have had.  Toledo is next, followed by three winnable games.  More on the MAC race this week, and even acknowledging BG's hit and miss style, there's a very good chance that if BG wins 3 of the next 4 they are playing Miami for a spot in Detroit.

Flash Preview....

 What is their body of work?

Where do you start?  If it wasn't for Akron, this would be the most troubled program in the MAC. In 2012, they had an historic season, ranked #18 at one point.  Since that year, they have had 2 winning seasons, one of them the COVID year. Sean Lewis was 27-34 there.  When he left, they brought in Kenni Burns, a Minnesota RowTheBoat guy. He is 1-17 with 0 FBS wins, in possible running for the Tom Arth Award.

They are 0-6 this year, and played three P4 teams---Pitt, Tennessee, and Penn State....lost that one 56-0. They are 0-2 in MAC play, and both games were pure MACTION, losing to 52-33 to EMU and 37-35 to Ball State.

Through all their issues, Kent won 5-straight against BG (Sean Lewis never lost to the school where he was the OC)...Pelini once. Loeffler the other times. Three of them were ugly.  They put 60 on us twice.  BG broke the streak 49-19 last season.

BG is a 21-point favorite. 

How experienced are they?

Their depth chart is TBA on their game notes.  Phil Steele ranked them #6 in experience in the MAC.

Who are their national leaders?

Crishon McCray is #5 in receiving TDs and #18 in yards per catch.  That's for all games.  In MAC games he has 13 catches for 401 yards (30 yard average) and 5 TDs.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -4, which is rough.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

This is super interesting.  Their #1 and #2 QBs sustained season-ending injuries in the Penn State game.  In comes Tommy Ulatowski, who threw for 284 against BG last year, despite splitting time most of the year with another guy.  Here's the weird part...he has lit a fire under the offense.  His QBR is over 170, leader in MAC GAMES ONLY by a long-shot.  His completion % is only 46%, 4 TD over 2 INT but 748 yards in 33 completions will get it done. At least officially, we do not know who will QB the Falcons.

What is their scoring and yards per play

It's night and day.  They are last in the MAC in scoring overall and #3 in their MAC games. Similarly, they are #2 in YPP over 2 MAC games at 6.9 ypp. (All games from here on in) BG's defense allows 24 points per game, which is 6th.  The Falcons allow 5.7 yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

No. They are second to last in the nation in rushing overall and 10th in MAC play at 2.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.8 per rush, 9th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

See above.  In addition to McCray, they have Luke Floriea as a productive wideout. BG is #6 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They are really committed to the run.  Sack adjusted they have run on 49% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  21% overall and 33% in the MAC.  BG allows 33% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

7 points per trip in MAC play, about 4 overall.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.8 points per trip allowed, #10 in the nation.

Do they protect the QB?

They have been sacked 18 times on 178 sack-adjusted attempts, which is a lot, over 10%.  BG gets sacks on 10% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are last in the nation in total defense and scoring defense and that has not changed in MAC play.  BG scored 24.8 which is #7 and 5.8 yards per play which is #4.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are last in the nation. In MAC games they are 10th. At 4.5 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5.  Even so, our rushing of late has been a disappointment, which Coach attributes to a lack of confidence.

Can they be passed on?

They are #127 of of 133 in team passing efficiency defense. In their MAC games, they are #7.  They have allowed 70% completions on mostly short passes.  BG is #8 in team passing offense, largely due to 6 TDs over 5 INT.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 120th in the nation for all games and 3rd in the MAC in MAC games. At 40%, BG is #4.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They have allowed an unbelievable 35 red zone trips, tied for the most in the country.  They allow 5.6 points per trip.  BG offense scored 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

No, they have sacks on 5.4% of passes, all games. In MAC play, they have only 2 sacks. BG allows sacks on 7.8% of pass attempts, which is creeping up.

Special Teams:

Punting?

At 36 a punt, they are #113.  No blocks, 1 TD.  FWIW, BG is #21 in net punting.

Punt Return?

Three returns, 45 yards.  No TDs, no blocks.

Placekicking? 

Andrew Glass has been their kicker for a while.  All-MAC last year.  He entered the portal on October 2.  His replacement, Will Hryszko is 0-1. That's his only D1 FG attempt.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 24.

Kickoff Return?

No idea

Intangible Miscellany

OK.  Well, this is a should-win and a must-win.  Whether it is a will-win remains to be seen.  You can't be blamed for not trusting this team. A big performance by the Falcons does not mean they are out of the woods...this is the trap we fell into last year.  But there's no path anywhere without a win in this one.  On paper, BG should be able to move the ball against Kent--just as BSU and EMU did--and our defense is playing well, and they are one-dimensional.  We are at home. We should be able to manage this one.

On the other hand, Coach alluded to guys worrying about where they are going to be next year.  Even if Bazelak plays he will probably not be 100%.  Or we have a guy making his first start.  Kent came close to winning last week and has to be very hungry, given they have lost 16 straight FBS games.

Loeffler Presser: Lack of Confidence

Coach had his weekly presser today.

He said that the problem the offensive line is having is that they have lost confidence and they are afraid of making a mistake. He doesn't know how it happened or why, but he says that if we can get that back, things will be fine.  

He went through the "lot of football left to play" stuff. Which there is.  We have met some adversity.  Which doesn't last forever. (As a BG football fan, I'd like to quibble with this...it certainly FEELS like it has).

There was also a lot of talk about the issues facing college football today.  He especially mentioned NIL, portal and red-shirting, which is an odd thing to add.  He says that players get a lot of distractions.  I don't have any idea what's going on but it seems like it might tie into a series of other cryptic statements he has been making.

Or maybe not.

He says he won't know about Bazelak until later in the week.  If Anderson does play, they will have a more personalized game plan for him.  I personally think he would be very effective on RPOs, but who knows.

Jackson Kleather is also day-to-day.

He didn't give a prognosis, but he said that Orth had the same shoulder surgery Loeffler had when he was at Michigan.  In fact, Loeffler had it twice or even possibly more.  He proceeded to give a complete history of players who have had this surgery and whether they ever made it back.