MAC Football Standings and discussion

 

So here is where things stand.  This is the best thing ever....

There are a myriad of things that could happen.  As an aside, big multi-team tie-breakers are a recognized weakness of not having divisions.  A lot comes down to a little.  But that's what we have.

As a reminder, the MAC Tiebreaker Policy is here.

With two wins, BG is in, because Miami would have two losses. Miami would be the second team because they beat OU if it is head to head, but it's more complicated if WMU, UT or UB also finishes a with 2 losses.

There is a significant chance that there will be a tiebreaker at two losses. In fact, there's reason to think all of the 2 loss teams win out...leaving those three, plus OU (if they beat Ball State), and either BG or Miami assuming the loser of that game wins their other game.

Of course, it doesn't have to go that way.  OU could beat UT.  EMU could beat UB or WMU, especially UB @ EMU. Miami could lose to NIU.  Ball State is a danger...all four of their conference losses have been by less than a TD. 

Look...OU loses twice, BG or Miami twice, WMU, UB and UT once, and we have a tie-breaker at 3 losses...scenario requires UT to lose to Akron.

We will know more soon--in fact, by the time we head to Muncie, things will be much clearer.

Game on.

Sweet Victory

 The beat goes on for the Falcons...they are playing outstanding football and control their own destiny.  Two wins and they are in the title game.  One win and its still possible, all depending on who ends up where.

This is what we were promised.  It took a long time to get here, but this was the team we promised.  It didn't always look like it would get here, but last night there can be no doubt.  Two more games...playing high-tension November ball.  

WMU won the toss and took the ball.  In what would be a precursor, BG took them three and out.  BG took the punt and went on a 12-play, 4 minute drive that ended with a Zach Long 50 yard FG.  Long--an injury replacement--is turning into a real weapon.

The teams traded punts and then WMU drove down the field and scored a TD...up 7-3, now in the early 2nd, they pooched the kickoff, which was muffed and recovered by WMU. 

Bam Booker took a brutal hit and was out cold.  He was on the field for a long time before he left on a stretcher.  The silence in the stands was scary.  You can't tell much from the stands, but I just watched the replay and I cannot believe that didn't at least get sent to a replay.  It surely looked enough like targeting to get a look.  But, that did not happen.  Also, the technicality of the targeting rules sometimes get by me...but it was a brutal hit to the head.

Last night, BG said that he was awake, speaking and had movement in his extremities.  Best to him on his recovery.

Coach said he went to the sideline and reported to the team that Booker looked like he would be OK. The team clearly responded to that news. The game's key sequence unfolded next.

WMU had the ball on the BG 37.  Saad took a runner down for a loss of 3, Horne came running full force and blew Wolff up for a six-yard loss, and then WMU got 5 yards on 3rd down and punted BG to the 16.

Down 7-3, BG drove the 84 yards in 6 plays for a TD. Starting with a 19 yard Stewart run, 21 yards to Fannin in heavy traffic over the middle on play 2, Johnson for 6 on play 4, Bazelak-Malcon Johnson for 12 to convert on 3rd and 3 and then a 25 yard pass to Fannin on a play Loeffler says they put in two days ago for the score.

Up 14-3, Ja'Cory Benjamin made an incredible pick on the first WMU play from scrimmage.  BG started on the WMU 26, Stewart ran it to the 1 and then Bazelak scored on a tush-pushy play and BG was up 17-7 with 4 left in the half.

Remember, BG gets the ball to start the second half because WMU took the ball to start the game.

WMU got a drive going, getting to the BG 35.  Then, the defense bowed up, forced a 50-yard FG that missed and BG headed into the locker room 17-7.

The game was far from over, but the tone was set.  That sequence after the Booker injury clearly changed the game.

BG took the kickoff, converted a 3rd and 6 on a QB draw, hit Fannin twice for a total of 32 yards and then Strwart ran it in from 17 to put BG up 24-7.  Again, the game is not over, but BG has control of the game.

WMU took the kick, made a first down and then a BG sack on 2nd and 6 followed by a delay of game penalty had the Broncos punting.  On the second play of the drive, Stewart ran to 60 and Bazelak hit Fannin for 10 yards on the second play for the score and it was 31-7 6:30 left to play in the 3rd.

As it turned out, the game was over.  Just bookend the sequence from the Booker injury to that TD and see how BG blew the doors off WMU.

WMU scored on the next drive, but it took them 6 minutes.  BG did a great job making WMU work their way down the field slowly.  Down 24, they went for 2 and missed, leaving BG ahead 31-13, and 18 play lead that still is 3 scores.  The 4th quarter played itself out and the Falcons had a huge home win.

Sweet victory.

First credit goes to the defense. WMU came in leading the MAC in scoring, yards per play, passing efficiency and yards per rush. 

And the BG defense shut them down.  The week before against NIU they had 200 rushing yards...in this one, they had 97 yards on 36 attempts. Wolff was 24 of 32 passing, 2 INT and most importantly 8 yards a completion.  Their longest play was 25 yards--two of them, both passes, and one of them in garbage time.  And 4 sacks.  And 4 of 15 on 3rd down.

BG kept the ball in from of them, denied the run, got a key INT and dominated the best offensive team in the MAC.  I honestly think we call a strong game on defense.  We have guys where they need to be and they are making their share of plays.

The offense relied on its three best players.  There's nothing wrong with having good players. Fannin was 10-137 and 2 TDS.  Has to make first-team All-American. Stewart had 15 carries for 150 yards.  Did not lose any yards.  Scored once. Was a pure force, as he is at his best.

And Conner Bazelak, who is playing really well.  He isn't going to get Matt Johnson numbers because we play different...we ran only 56 plays, for example.  But he does what they need in a complex offense and without even decent WRs. He was 15 of 22 for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns, and probably a half-dozen perfect throws into very small windows.  PFF graded him at 91, a career-high, including all of his schools. His season grade of 82 leads the MAC.

BG averaged 7.2 yards per play.  If that might work for you.

Except for the kickoff muff, BG's special teams were very good.  Long had a long FG. Henderson put them inside the 20 twice on 3 punts. 

Falcons Harvest Guaranteed Win

The Falcons hit the floor at home against NAIA Taylor...it's on the schedule to be a win and that's what happened.  The Falcons beat Taylor 107-43.  Not much to see here except for the first minutes of Jaxon Pardon, who nailed a 3FG, had a steal and then a DUNK for 5 points in 5 minutes.

Next up is Michigan State on Saturday.

WMU Preview....

 What is their body of work?

WMU is the surprise team of the MAC.  They were picked 7th, but have started 4-1 in MAC play.  They won their first 4---@BS, AK, @UB and Kent....before losing to NIU at KZoo last week.  They have played the two worst teams in the MAC--as BG has--to get this far.  The road win @UB certainly  signified they were going to be competitive.

Over the past 10 seasons, BG has played WMU 6 times and there has been a 3-3 split.  A loss to WMU was Coach Jinks' last game.  Loeffler is 2-1 vs. WMU and 1-0 vs. current coach Lance Taylor.

BG is a 9-point home favorite.

How experienced are they?

34 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart.   Old team.

Who are their national leaders?

Jaden Nixon is #10 in all-purpose yards and #4 in yards per carry, #15 in rushing TDs.

Hayden Wolff is #18 in passing efficiency

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games.   This has been huge---8 were against AK and Kent.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Going to be a good QB battle here. Above we mentioned Wolff's number for the season...he is also #1 in MAC play for pass efficiency.  He has 69% completions, 12 TDs over 3 INT and over 12 yards a completion. Bazelak is #3.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC with 41 points a game and 7 yards per play. BG's defense allows 16.4 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They surely can.  They lead the MAC with 6.1 yards per carry. BG allows 4.2 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #1 in pass efficiency. BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 56% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They do.  44%, #2 in MAC.  BG allows 32% which is #5 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.1 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 13 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

Yes, sacks on 4.9% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (34) and 10th in yards per play allowed (6.6).  BG scores 25. which is #7 and 5.6 yards per play which is #7.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Not great, #7 at 4.6 yards per carry allowed. At 3.9 yards per carry, BG's offense is #8. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are #11 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 64% completions, 11 TDs over 5 INT and almost 14 yards a completion, which is a ton.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 68% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

WMU allows 39%, which is #6.  BG converts 32%, which is #9.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5.7 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.3 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Average, they have sacks on 5.1% of passes. BG allows sacks on 10% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #8 in net punting. No blocks.  In MAC play, BG is #1.

Punt Return?

They are OK, #9 in the MAC.  0 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's accurate.  All games he's 9 of 10 with a long of 45.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 27.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 30, which is really good.

Intangible Miscellany

Look, we have waited a long time.  With 3 wins, we go to Detroit.  But winning championships is hard and so is winning 3 more games in a row.  WMU is a good team--probably not as good as their record, but good.  This sets up as a highly competitive matchup.  A very good WMU offense against a very good BG defense.  This would be an awesome time for BG to pull out some plays like they did against UT and really move the ball.  A loss doesn't end the season but makes it much more competitive.  If BG's best team comes out, we will win this one, but I wouldn't expect anything other than a really tough game.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (1-9)  Lost to Bucknell

PSU:  (8-1) Smoked Washington

TX A&M: (7-2) Idle

ODU:  (4-5)  Idle

Akron:  (2-7) #MACTION

NIU: (5-4) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-9) #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) #MACTION

CMU (3-6) #MACTION

WMU: (5-4) #MACTION

BSU (3-6): #MACTION

MU:  (5-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Taylor Preview

Monday, BG has Taylor University in for MBB.  Taylor is an interdenominational, evangelical university in Upland, IN, which is between Fort Wayne and Indy. 

They compete in the NAIA and their nickname is Trojans.  Both John Groce and Chris Holtman are Taylor alumni.

Groce credits Taylor for molding who he became.

They had a legendary coach, Paul Patterson, who is in the NAIA Hall-of-Fame and was the winningest collegiate coach in Indiana history.

Their current coach is Austin Peters, who is in his first season. Most of his experience in coaching is at smaller colleges, but he did work in Drewland at Valpo.

They were 11-18 last year.  Their last winning season was 2019-20.  Their last D1 game was in 2018.  They lost to Miami by 31.

The Trojans are 4-1 this year.  They lost their last game against IU-Kokomo.

They can shoot.  They score 82 points a game, making 47% shooting overall and 38% from 3FG. This equals out to 1.14 points per possession, which is really good.

They allow only 31% 3FG shooting. 

They don't have one big scorer, rather than have a handful of guys in the 10-12 PPG range.  Anton Webb, who is 6'8", average over 12 RPG. 

Overall, they lack height, which is normal in these games.  Normally, the BG bigs have their best game of the season.

Look, this is on the schedule for a win.  Anything other than an easy win where everyone gets on the court is a disappointment.

Davidson holds off Falcon MBB Rally

Bowling Green MBB fell into a hole in the first half last night and despite a much improved second half performance, was unable to close the gap and lost their home opener.

At the first media timeout it was 7-4 but in the next four minutes Davidson went on a 12-2 run, causing Coach Simon to call timeout and replace every player on the floor.  It stayed steady for 10 minutes or so but didn't get better...an 8-0 Davidson run made it a 20 point lead with 4:31 to play.  BG shaved it to 16 at the half.

Davidson shot 53% overall and 46% from 3FG for the half, while BG was 42% and 50%.  Beyond the percentages, Davidson made 7 3FGs, had 2 fewer turnovers and 5 ORebs to BG's 1.

The second half was much different. Sparked by 2 Marcus Johnson 3FGs, BG went on an 11-2 run to cut the lead to 7 less than two minutes into the half.   The game stabilized there, Davidson had the lead to 13 with 13 left to play, but BG had it back to 8 shortly thereafter.  BG made another run and cut the lead to 4 with about 10 to play, but Davidson is a good team and had it back to 9 two possessions later.

It stayed in the 6-7-8 range when Jevontae Campbell made 2 FTs, got a steal and converted a layup, taking the lead from 8-4 with 1:33 left.

It was still 4 with 1:19 left and Trey Thomas got a steal.  Here the best opportunity was presented, but BG missed the shot and Davidson scored on their next possession.  BG had one more shot, Campbell on the line, missed his 2nd FT when BG was down 3.  BG had another shot down 4 and did not score then either and it was over.  91-85 final.

All in all, far from a disaster.  Not a success either.

Game had 76 possessions, third highest D1 game in the Simon era.

BG scored 1.12 points per possession, normally a winning number.  They shot 47% from 2FG and 46% from 3FG.  Unfortunately, they allowed Davidson 1.2 points per possessions, usually a losing number. Those offensive rebounds were key--Davidson was +10 on second chance points.  They were also 23 of 28 at the line, for a +4.  BG was 19 of 25 at the line for a respectable 76%.

Individually...Jevontae Campbell.  Woof. He finished with 30 points, including scoring 15-straight BG points in the stretch run. He made 10-13 on 2FGS and 10-12 at the line for a highly efficient night, adding 4 steals and 4 turnovers. 

Marcus Johnson had 19 in 22 minutes, making 5 of 10 from 3FG. Khayat had 10 on 1 of 2 and 2 of 3 shooting.  Trey Thomas had 10 but it took 9 shots. Sam Towns had 11 rebounds and blocked 4 shots.

BG had seven players over 10 minutes.  Johnson, Towns, Khayat, Campbell and Thomas started, with Butler and Humphrey coming off the bench for more than 10 minutes, and Felt, Squire, Exacte and Green playing less than 10.  BG used 23 lineup combinations, with 10 of them out there for less than one minute.

So, the Falcons hit 0-2.  Next week is a non-D1 game against Taylor and @MSU. The next realistic chance for a D1 win is against Niagara on 11/29.

MBB Home Opener Preview

BG hits their second game and home opener on Friday.  The opponent is the Davidson Wildcats. They are a legit all-time program. They have made 15 Big Dance appearances, making the Elite 8 in 68 and 69.  Of course, you know who else was in that 68 tourney. Those teams were coached by Lefty Driesell. They have been in 3 times in the last 10 years.

Their head coach is Matt McKillop who is in his third year, replacing his legendary father Bob.  He is 31-33 in that time.

They play in the Atlantic-10, where they were picked 12th in the A10 poll, 11th in Blue Ribbon.  Here's the thing.  The A-10 is the 7th ranked conference in kenpom.  Based on the kenpom rankings, 10 teams in the A-10 would be ranked ahead of the best team in the MAC.  That includes Davidson---and UMASS, in the MAC next year.

They beat a non-D1 opponent in their opener.

Return 4 starters.  Interestingly, there is no graduate school at Davidson, so grad transfers, or even your own guys using their grad year, cannot happen.

They have played BG twice.  There was a home-home in 86-87, with each team winning on their home floor.  Davidson is 9-9 vs. teams currently in the MAC. 

Looking at a few players, Reed Bailey was third-team All-A10 in the preseason. He scored 12.7 PPG and added 5.8 RPG as a sophomore last year.  He's 6'10.

They also have Sean Logan, another 6'10" player.  Didn't put up big numbers last year, but he did block 58 shots, bad news given BG was blocked 10 times last game.

That's not all...they also have Joe Hurlbert, a Colorado transfer.  He is also 6'10". Played only 26 minutes in Colorado, but they had some NBA big men ahead of him.

Connon Kochera is a 6'5 G who transferred two years ago from William & Mary,  He scored 13 PPG last year and made 36% from 3FG.

Bobby Durkin is a sophomore G who drained a game-winning 3FG to beat Maryland last year.  Zach Laput is a DII transfer who is a 6'4" G and was in double figures in their opener.

This is an outstanding test for BG.  Davidson is a 4.5 point road favorite.

MAC Football Update, 11/7

 So here is what things look like today.  Six teams are still in play. 

A few thoughts:  If BG wins out, they are in the title game.  Both WMU and Miami would have two losses and OU would be in if they won out.

UT and UB need three of the one-loss teams to lose to get into a tiebreaker. That could easily happen.

First, they need to win out.  UB has the easier route...UT hosts OU in what will be a touch game.

It wouldn't surprise me if all four of the one loss teams dropped a game coming home.  Miami could lose to NIU.  WMU  could lose to BG.  BG could lose to Miami. OU could lose to UT.  Talk above havoc. A six-way tie with two spots to fill.  (By the way, I think--could be wrong--BG wins this tiebreaker under that scenario--and UT and WMU battle for the other spot.

I like the position we are in.  We are playing meaningful games in November and are matched with two of the three teams we are tied with and both at home.  Long way to go.  This is a hard race to win.  But I think we have a shot.

Let's get it done.  Run the damn ball.