MBB plays at 2

So, not much to comment on MBB since I was following on my phone while at the Doyt.

BG played Weber State in Tempe and lost in the final seconds.  We had a 10-point lead with 14 left to play in the game (84% chance to win) and WSU scored the next 9 points to cut it to 1.  The game bounced back and forth and then WSU went up 4 or so and BG came back and with 2:09 the game was tied.  BG got two stops and failed to score on theirs. Campbell was fouled with :48 left. He split the pair to put BG up 1.  WSU made a layup with :28 to go up 1.  BG had last shot, Johnson missed a 3FG with :06 left and it was over.

Khayat and Towns both were DNP.  My sources (FalconMedia) say Khayat was injured late against Bellarmine.  No idea about Towns.

Butler had 16 on 4 of 8 and 1 of 5 shooting. Campbell had 13 on 4 of 9 2FG shooting. Green had 10. Felt added 7 rebounds in 11 minutes.  Overall, BG shot 45% from 2FG, 29% from 3FG and made 86% at the line.  WSU was very similar in all areas, except making 63% on 2FG, which was the difference.

Next up is New Mexico State for the 2-5 Falcons.  They were picked #7 in CUSA, which is the #10 conference.  They are 3-3 and 2-4 in D1 games. They beat Utah Tech (295), TAM-Corpus Christi (208), lost to Dayton (24) by 19, UNLV (108) and then Pepperdine (255) yesterday.  That's 3 losses in a row.

They are really struggling to shoot the ball.

We'll get more into it tomorrow.

Sadness Accures

And there was much unhappiness.

Doesn't feel any better the next day. What a heartbreaking day.

Don't want to send the wrong message.  Very proud of what this program became this year.  It was a long haul and a 6-2 record in the MAC with a win over Toledo was a rewarding year. It was a fun season...fun to watch games and figure we will win.  There were spurts of excellence and some disappointing moments.  The ODU loss...but really the NIU loss at home.  That one was really costly.

It's heartbreaking for all that.  And when you see how hard you have to work to get a shot, and then it slips away.  Winning championships is really hard.  We have an experienced team that stuck together. This was the time.  Until it wasn't.  And we will get another shot, but the guys who stuck with us, who played through all that mess, who worked to make this team what it was...they won't get another shot.  Period.

Coach Loeffler choked up twice in his presser, where nobody seemed to be able to even ask him a question. Make no mistake:  this is a pain that you only feel when you commit yourself totally to a goal.  I have been there. Those with one foot in do not know it.

It is the cruel nature of sport. Somebody's heart had to be broken yesterday.

In the end, Miami was just a little better than us.

We knew all year that the offensive line was not elite.  Sometimes they were good, sometimes they were average and sometimes less than average.  Always resilient.  (Also, fighting through a severe mid-year disruption).

And we knew that we were not getting the production at WR that teams do in this day and age.

Those were decisive issues yesterday.  Miami won more battles on the line of scrimmage and BG could not establish a running game. Even removing sacks, most of our backs were under 4 yards per carry. Then, they double or even triple-teamed Fannin.  One time, I saw four guys around him.  He wasn't 100% and they were able to neutralize him.

So something had to be open...but we didn't have the WRs to take advantage.   Bazelak had a rough game...and so the offense sputtered and made victory an uphill climb the whole way.

The defense kept us in the game.  Two INTs.  Held Miami to zero first downs in the 3rd quarter--26 yards on 12 plays.

And finally BG gets a drive.  Late 3rd/early 4th. Fannin completes a stumbling TE pass to Gazerak, who makes a miracle catch to convert a 3rd and 2.

BG finally driving.  Levi Gazerak with two more catches, Johnson with a 22-yard run, and then Patterson the score.  FINALLY.  A 92-yard, 11-play drive that makes it 14-12.

11 minutes left in the game.

Second play of Miami's drive...BG blitzes, Gabbert steps up and hits a WR who gets behind our great defense when we just can't let that happen, and in one play it's 21-12 with 10:30 left and the game is essentially over.  BG never crossed their own 30 again.  Everything before it is erased.

There were bunches of play.  As mentioned, two INT for BG.  Bazelak threw one.  BG got a safety.  BG struggled badly with punting. There was a terrible no-call on PI against Fannin.  MU got the lucky catch of all time at the end of the first half when BG had cut the deficit to 2. There were only 3 penalties in the game.  

I was thrilled with the crowd.  The weather was appalling and every BG fan was 10 minutes from a warm house and a television.  Another reason to be heartbroken.  With us against OU, they might have sold out Ford Field.

Sigh.

More on the future to come.  There's a bowl game, almost for sure without Harold Fannin. Who knows what else will happen when the portal opens.  Coach Loeffler is entering the last year of his contract and the BG turnaround has drawn notice elsewhere.

For today?  Today is a heartbreaking day.

Happy Thanksgiving to the Falcon Nation

 

Preview of the Big Game

What is their body of work?

Miami is the traditional MAC power in football.  After Big Ben left, they went through some dark years--14 straight losing seasons--before Chuck Martin broke through in his sixth year with an 8-6 record.  The last two years have been excellent.  They are 13-2 in the last two years in the MAC and are the defending champions.

Since Martin arrived, the RedHawks are 5-2 against BG.  Jinks won one and Loeffler won the last game played at the Doyt.  Last year, Miami wiped BG out 27-0 in Oxford.

BG is a 2-point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 27 juniors and seniors, which is a young team in 2024.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games, mostly in INT.  BG creates a new game by taking care of the ball.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Gabbert is a good QB.  PFF ranks him #10 and #7 as a runner.  He was third-team All-MAC last year, when he had a significantly better year.  He leads the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are  #5 in scoring with 30.5 points per game but #1 in yards per play at 6.8.  BG's defense allows 15.4 points per game, which is tied for second with Miami.  The Falcons allow 4.6 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  They are #3 at 5.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 3.7 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #5 in pass efficiency.  Gabbert is #7.  He has completed 57% of his passes, 15 TDs over 2INT and a stunning 15.3 yards per reception. Reggie Virgil is #1 in the MAC with 23 yards per reception.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 47% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  35% which is #9 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

They have only one empty trip in 25 attempts.  However, 11 of those were FGs.  Overall, the 4.96 is not great. Between the 3rd down and red zone, this is why their yards per play is way better than their scoring. BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed. 

Do they protect the QB?

They have allowed sacks on 7.2% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7.8% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are tied for 2nd with BG at 15.4 PPG.  They lead the MAC allowing 4 yards per play.  BG scores 28. which is #6 and 5.7 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Yes. At 2.8 yards per carry, they are #1 in the MAC. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #7. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are 1st in passing efficiency defense.  They allow 56% completions, have 10 INT and 9.5 yards per completion. BG is #2 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They allow 41% which is #9.  BG converts 35%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 5.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they have sacks on 8.2% of passes. BG allows sacks on 8.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

While their kicker is a boomer, they are #7 in net punting. BG is #1.

Punt Return?

Middle of the pack

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 22 of 26 with a long of 51.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 26 (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

I'd say this is the biggest game played at the Doyt in terms of MAC play since the MAC title Big Ben game on December 4, 2023.  If you remove UT games and the Indiana G-O-G-O game, I think this is the biggest game we have had in a long time.  Reminds me a lot of the fat punter game.

Let's hope people come back to town.  I recall during Meyer I we had a great crowd for the day after Thanksgiving, but that was Toledo.  A big crowd would be great.  Will be cold.  Could snow.  

Just to be frank, Miami is the cause of a significant number of banana-peel moments in our history.  There was Hall-of-Famer Don Nehlen forgetting what down it was. A ridiculous rally in MBB that gave the Miami SID a heart attack. Fog Bowl.  The last grass game at the Doyt...think Charlie Brown FG.  We tried to make it go away by giving it a name---the Miami Whammy.  Still hasn't come too far.

In fact, until UT became a state school, Miami was our top rival.  They own the series with us.

For today, as mentioned, we are 2-point favorites.  You can see above that the game appears to be very evenly matched.  I think it will be low scoring and determined by one or two plays.

Like all football games, it will be decided up front. BG must run the ball and protect the QB.  Miami is really difficult to pass against, and we need to run the ball to open the offense up.  Same is true of them.  We have a defense that can compete with theirs.

I am really looking forward to the game.  We have waited a long time for this game.  Let's back the boys.,,,

Weber State preview

While the football team plays its biggest home game in 20 years or so, the MBB team will be in Tempe playing in an MTE, starting with Weber State.  Depending on the result, they will play Pepperdine or New Mexico State on Saturday.

The games won't be played in Arizona State's basketball arena, but in Mullet Arena, as pictured below.

No seriously.  Mullet is a 5,000 seat arena where the ASU ice hockey teams play, a G-league team, etc. The NHL Coyotes have played there as well.

The first opponent is Weber State. The Wildcats. They play in the Big Sky Conference, which is currently the #21 conference.  The MAC is currently #20.

It's WE-ber, not WEB-er.  The school was named after Weber County, where it is, and the county was named after a fur trader named John Henry Weber who was German and apparently said his name "VE-ber."

They have been to the NCAA tournament 16 times, most recently in 2016.  Coaching legend Dick Motta coached them to the 1968 tournament ...

Blue Ribbon had them #2 in the Big Sky.  The coaches had them 4th and the media had them 3rd.

The year is off to a tough start.  They had played a tough early schedule, standing at 2-4 in all games and 0-4 in D1 games.  That includes @Oregon State (#95, lose by 28), @Nevada (#36, lose by 30), @Hawaii (#191, OT loss), UC Irvine at home (#61, 6-point loss). Their kenpom has fallen from 175 to 230, mostly because of the margin of defeat in those first two games and the fact that they are winless when D1 games only are counted.

That's the #19 schedule to date in the country, discounting non-D1 games.  CMU has played the toughest schedule in the MAC, #34.

I suspect Weber State will show up pretty hungry.

Their adjusted efficiency (for schedule, road games, etc) is 1.04 on offense, which is below the national average.  They are allowing 1.09, which is poor.  

Their adjusted tempo is 68, which is pretty slow.

Looking at offense, their biggest weakness has been shooting.  They are making 44% on 2FG and 31% on 3FG, both well below average.  Combined, they are #308 in shooting out of 364.  Their turnovers are a little better than average and their offensive rebounding a little worse.  They get to the line a lot (#115)  but make only 66% (#294).  14% of their shots have been blocked, which is a lot.  Even worse is BG, which has 16.8% of its shots blocked, among the 10 worst in the country.

Defensively, things are a little worse. They allow an unbelievable 43% on 3FG, which is #358 in the country. They are #221 in defending the 2FG. They don't force turnovers (#256), are poor on their own boards (#223) and give up a staggering amount of FTs (#339).

Their leading scorer is Blaise Threatt, a 6'3" Sr. G with 19 PPG on 51% 2FG shooting and 33% 3FG shooting. He's their only double-figure scorer.  They have a few guys around 8 PPG.  One player to watch is Miguel Tomley, who caused a whole Big Sky controversy over transferring in the conference from Idaho State.

Dyson Koehler is their top rebounder, at 6'7".  They have a 6'1" C from Montengro.  (Vucinic.  Why are there no guards from Central Europe?)

They have 3 Canadians, one Englishman, one Finn, 2 Serbians, one Montenegran and one Japanese player.

So off we go.  Kenpom gives Weber State a 60% chance of winning.

BG MBB Signee

 BG MBB has announced one more early signing period player.  His name is Aidan Goins, a 6'9" C who is playing this year at Walters State, a community college in Tennessee. It's early in the year, but he is averaging 17.2 points per game while shooting 58.9-percent from the field and 60-percent from three on 15 attempts.

Last year, he played at Motlow State, putting up good numbers there, too. He was also all-district coming out of HS.

In the official BGSU release, Coach Simon said...

"Aiden is a dynamic big man that we see as an inside and outside threat. His skill set will put a lot of pressure on defenses. His fit on and off the court is perfect for us. We look forward to having him help us on our journey to bring a championship to Bowling Green."

This is exactly the kind of big man we have been trying to collect.

Welcome to the Falcons, Aidan.

Sad Story from Louisville

 Name one sentence you never thought you'd say....how about...

"Bellarmine sure has our number."

Good choice.

The Knights have won 6 DI games since the beginning of last season, and two of them are double-digit wins over the Falcons.

We are off to a rough start.  It's a lot of guys to put together.  I'd hoped that the European trip might have helped but right now it's looking rough.

BG led early, but Bellarmine took the lead 7 minutes in and did not trail again.  They led by 5 at the half, had the lead in single digits 2 minutes into the 2nd half.  BG made a 9-0 run to get the lead to 4 with about 15 to play, and it was still 4 with 9 to play.  An 8-0 Bellarmine run put the lead back to 12 with 7 to play.  The teams traded 3FGs for a minute, but the lead was up to 16 with 4 to play and that was all there was to talk about.  Final was 80-68.

The game was played at 68 possessions, which is slow for how BG plays but not really slow. The key point is the Falcons allowed 1.18 points per possession, which is comparable to the MSU and Davidson losses and scored 1 point per possession, which is not winnable.  We won one game at 1 point per possession or lower....Southern Indiana last year (54-52).

BG took a season high 47% of their shots from 3FG, making 38%, which isn't bad.  The 44% they made on 2FGs was not helpful, however, and it equalled out to an average shooting night. Turnovers were not bad, but the offensive rebounding was terrible and BG did not get to the line very much either, making 12 of 16.

Bellarmine had a 58% EFG, the best against BG this year. They made 46% on 2FG and 40% on 3FG.  Tough to beat a team that shoots like that. Their turnovers were good, they also did not do well on the offensive boards and they made 20 of 22 at the FT line.

BG had two players with 20 points. Campbell had 21, 7 of 9 2FG shooting and 2 of 3 3FG.  He did have 4 turnovers. Derrick Barnes Butler (we regret the error) also had 21 of 3 of 5 and 5 of 9 shooting and 4 rebounds.  Yo-Yo had 11 on 2 of 4 and 1 of 2 shooting. Marcus Johnson was held to 9 and a team high 6 rebounds. Took only 7 shots.  Trey Thomas had 4 assists and 0 turnovers but was 1-7 from 3FG and was blocked 3 times.

At 2-4, 1-4 in MAC games, BG has a few days off.  They will play Weber State on Friday in Tempe.

And down the stretch they come.....

 

Credit here to the MAC Sports Connection Podcast for sorting out the final permutations for the last week.  This is what I came up with as well.

If BG wins, they could play Ohio or Miami.  Note that the 5th scenario would be Buffalo win, not loss.

#4 is the one that gets crazy.  BG/UB/and OU are tied.  Among common opponents, BG and UB and undefeated and OU has a loss (Ball State).  Which eliminates them.  You got to head-to-head among BG and UB's common opponents, which is still a tie.  Both teams lost one game in a common opponent...BG lost to NIU and UB lost to WMU.  The tiebreaker would be decided by whether NIU or WMU finishes higher in the final standings, all tie breakers applied.

Ultimately, BG wins they are in and could play OU, Miami or UB.

BG can make it with a loss to Miami, but only if OU loses to Ball State, in Athens at the same time as our game. 

Candidly, as much as I love scenarios, I don't think Ball State is very likely to walk out of Athens with a win.  ESPN gives BG a 58% chance to win and OU an 87% chance to win.  Also, UB is likely to beat Kent. (93%).

But, it could happen.

The most likely scenario is that it will be OU. The scenario does exist where BG would have to beat Miami twice in a row to win the championship.

No one said it would be easy.

Here is the opponent tracker...

Fordham (2-9) Lost to Merrimack

PSU:  (10-1) Beat Minny by one

TX A&M: (8-3) Lost to Auburn in 4OT.

ODU:  (4-7)  Lost to Marshall.  No bowl for you.

Akron:  (3-7) #MACTION

NIU: (6-5) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-11) #MACTION

UT:  (7-4) #MACTION

CMU (4-7) #MACTION

WMU: (5-6) #MACTION

BSU (3-8): #MACTION

MU:  (7-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Falcons Win, Head to the BIG GAME

Ok, kids.  We have waited a long time to be here...we are heading to the Doyt on Friday to play a big game.  How long?  I've tried to figure out...probably a post this week...but it has to be 10 years since we played a game this big on our field...excluding UT and Indiana, etc.  It reminds me of the Fat Punter game a little, except that was for the title.  Let us hope we exorcise that demon and any other number of Miami demons.

Remember, for context, BG is playing the top scoring offense in the MAC.  Ball State gets the ball and goes three and out.  BSU gets a long roll on the punt and BG starts on their own 7.

And BG goes on a dream drive.  Just the thing you want when you are playing a high-octane offense.  15 plays, 93 yards and 8:44 off the clock.  And a touchdown.  Three 3rd-down conversions---one at 5 yards and 2 at one yard--finished with Bazelak to Fannin on first and goal...and BG had a 7-0 lead.

BS took the ball and converted a 3rd and 9.  BG got a first down sack and BS had a short punt this time and BG started on their 30.

BG went three and out and then BS drove to the BG 48 before BG got a 4th down stop and gave the offense great field position.  

And BG gave up a sack and went three and out.  Coach said after the game that the Falcons missed two open plays on the 2nd and 3rd drive that would have broken the game wide open...one was caused by pressure and one was a wide open throw to Johnson that Bazelak just missed.

The game was in the second quarter by then.  With about 5 minutes left, Stewart fumbled and BSU recovered on the BG 25.  A moment of maximum danger...literally...as BS ran a ridiculous WR pass that hit Oladokun in the numbers and BG had the ball back. 

BG appeared to get some momentum and drove to the BSU 25 where the drive stalled.  Zach Long, who is developing into a stud, drilled a 43-yarder and BG had a 10-point lead.

To this point, Coach said that BG was missing big plays on offense and doing "uncharacteristic" things on defense, even as they were holding BSU scoreless.  And that usually comes back to haunt teams.  Ball State had used timeouts when BG had the ball and they mounted a drive.  It was at midfield and appeared to be doing nowhere when BG pressured Semonza. He escaped the pocket and hit a RB on a broken route and he ran the 51-yards into the end zone to make it 10-7 at the half.

Coach said no one panicked in the locker room.  Adjustments were made and the team came out ready to clean things up.  BG got the ball and ran another long drive....15 plays in 6:44.  This one got to the BSU 10 before Bazleak took a sack and the Falcons had to finish with a FG to make it 13-7.

Still facing an offense that can score, but BG's defense was solid again, forcing a three and out.  Another poor punt was followed by a big return/penalty that netted the Falcons with the ball on the BSU 46.

Two passes to Fannin and 43 yards later, BG was on the 3 and on 3rd down Rahkeem Smith took an end around into the end zone and BG had a 21-7 lead with 4 minutes to play in the 3rd.  (Bazelak and Johnson made a sweet pass and catch to get the conversion.)

The defense got a 3 and out again and on the second play of the BG's drive, Bazelak hit Smith in the left flat.  He absolutely smoked the defender and had nothing but open field.  The young man can run and it was a 66-yard TD reception and BG had a 28-7 lead late in the 3rd.  

In four minutes of game time, the issue was settled. 

BSU had the ball, punting on the first play of the 4th quarter...punt was partially blocked and BG started on the BSU 46.  They moved the chains on a 4th and 3 DPI and then ended up with a 48-yard FG from Long to make it 31-7.

The teams traded TDs on the next two possessions, including Smith's 3rd TD of the game.  BG won 38-13.

It was far from our best game....but in a trap game situation, against a wild card team with an interim coach but the ability to score...on the road....empty stadium....this was the outcome we needed.  Honestly, anything where they aren't in the game in the 4th quarter is a success.

BG's defense was the story, as they increasingly are.  BG held BSU to 43 yards rushing.  That includes sacks...the BSU backs were 17 for 75, a 4.4 yard per carry rate. Semonza, the #4 passer in the MAC, was held to just over 50% completions 11 yards a completion and 4 sacks.  There's the INT on the gadget pass and Tanner Koziol was held to 5 matches for 27 yards. Overall, BSU had 254 yards and 4.1 yards per play, with some of that coming in garbage time...BSU had 86 yards in the 4th.

On offense, BG did not establish the run.  Stewart had 10 carries for 32 yards and a lost fumble. Patterson was 5 for 15.  BG got some run yards from Bazelak and Smith, but by and large did not run the ball effectively.

Bazelak was 18 of 29 for 299, which is 14.2 yards per reception, a big number. (Really a team stat). He was sacked twice and continued to be effective on play action and when he isn't pressured.

Fannin was 9 for 125 and 1 TD.  He has to be first-team AP All-American at TE.  Every team is focused on stopping him and no one has succeeded.

FYI, he left the game injured and returned to the field but not the game.  He had his helmet.  Loeffler has promised to provide injury updates on "a couple" guys tomorrow.  I suspect they will be game time decisions ;)

Smith had 81 receiving yards and 3 total TDs.  He has made a big difference.  With Garcia not playing at all, we were really light at WR and having him out there is a perfect example of making the most of your opportunities. (and according to the stats he blocked a punt).

True FR Kal-El Pascal made 8 tackles and a TFL. Sipp had 2 sacks and a break up. Saad and Davis had sacks. Saad also forced a fumble on his sack. BG broke up 8 passes---8 different guys. Oladokun had a pick and seemed to be all over the place...more than the numbers indicated.

This is a stout defense.  

Long was 3-3 including a 48-yarder, outdoors in November. Henderson was effective punting, putting 3 inside the 20. 

So, more later on the big game.  Miami is very good.  We are playing very well.  It's going to be a game of defenses and line of scrimmage play.

Cardinal Preview

What is their body of work?

Things have been better in Muncie.  ln 2013, the Cards went 10-3 under the leadership of Pete Lembo...rumors were that Clawson snatched the Wake Forest job out from under Lembo with the win over NIU at Ford Field.  Anyway, since then, they have 10 losing years out of 11.  Alum Mike Neu was fired and this is the first game the interim will coach.

They are 3-7 and 2-4.  Their 4 losses have been by 15 points, leading people to say that they are 15 points from being undefeated.  Their two wins are by 4, so they are also 4 points from being winless.

Due to the unbalanced schedule, BG and Ball State have hardly played.  If you want to look at our last 10 meetings, you are stretching back to the Blackney era.  BG has won 8 of those last 10. Their last loss in Muncie was in 1995.

BG is an 11-point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 23 juniors and seniors, which is a young team.

Who are their national leaders?

Malcon Gillie is #9 in combined kick yards, #16 in KO returns, 

Tanner Koziol is #4 in receptions per game.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +5 in MAC games.   Had +4 in the win over NIU.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

He is a redshirt-FR--Kadin Semonza--and he's from California.  He played in 4 games last year. He's #4 in passing efficiency...65% completed, 14 TD over 5 INT and 11.6 yards per completion. Bazelak is #2.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC in scoring with 34.5 points per game #4 in yards per play at 5.9. (There are those turnovers at work). BG's defense allows 15.8 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 4.7 yards per play (4th).

Can they run the ball?

Not really.  They are #9 at 3.9 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in pass efficiency. BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 52% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They do.  42%, #2 in MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5 points per trip, which is not bad.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.1 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 3 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 16 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

Yes, sacks on 5.4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36) and 10th in yards per play allowed (6.6).  BG scores 26. which is #7 and 5.8 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

No, #11 at 5.4 yards per carry allowed. At 4.4 yards per carry, BG's offense is #6. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, 16 TDs over 6 INT and over 13 yards a completion, which is a ton.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

BSU allows 40, which is #7.  BG converts 34%, which is #10.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 6.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.6 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Average, they have sacks on 5.7% of passes. BG allows sacks on 9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are last in net punting. No blocks.  They have pooch-punted 6 times all year  In MAC play, BG is #3.

Punt Return?

Ah no.  They have one net punt return yard.

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 11 of 13 with a long of 52.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 26. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27, with a TD (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

A bunch here.

First, Ball State has an interim coach.  That can impact a team either way.  Sometimes it wakes them up, sometimes they write the year off.  In the portal era, where guys are looking elsewhere by mid-season, it seems likely to me that you get the bad side of that equation.  I'm watching Temple right now, and they are in that boat, and they aren't rolling over.  Anyway, it's a variable to be sure.

This is a classic trap game.  You have the perceived big game next Friday, but you need this one first. (I have not heard anything official on whether BG is out if they lose to Ball State...perhaps more will be revealed tomorrow.)  But, the most direct way for BG to make it is to win both games.  And they cannot look past this one....BSU has been competitive all season.  If we don't come to play, we will lose.

Weather is supposed to be dry and in the 40s tomorrow.  To me, the key is the BG run game.  BSU can be run against, and if we can control the ball and keep the game from being a shoot out, we should be able to pick this one up.  We've had some time off.  This should be a win.

Bellarmine Preview

The Men's Basketball team makes its way down to Louisville to take on Bellarmine.

Bellarmine (the Knights) are in their 4th year in Division I.  They have had some decent years, but the last couple years have been pretty rough. They went 8-23 last year and 4-12 in the Atlantic Sun.  Blue Ribbon picked them 8th...ASUN coaches had them 10th and the media had them 11th.

This year they are 0-5.  That includes home losses to VMI (kenpom #342) and Southern Indiana (318),  along with @VCU, @Marshall and @Louisville.

Their current kenpom is 336.

Which would all be something to look forward to, except that last year they beat us by 18 at the Stroh, riding hot shooting that was the best against BG in five years before that.   It was worse than that.  I said they were 8-23, but only 5 of those wins were in D1 and therefore one of those was against BG.

It was probably the low point of the season.

Bellarmine was legit in DII.  They made 22 NCAA tournaments and won it in 2011.  Their coach is Scott Davenport, who has been their 22 years.  He has won 72% of his games. He is 57-67 in DI.

As of today on Kenpom, the Atlantic Sun is the #23 ranked conference and the MAC is #21.

Last year, they flummoxed BG with a packed-in match-uppy zone.  They will need that this year, because they are currently #357 (out of 364) in defensive efficiency.  They are #341 in defensive FG% and #346 in defending the 3FG. They have played at 67 possessions, which is pretty slow.  

Offensively, they are scoring at .99 points per possession, which is below average.  They are a decent shooting team, but turn the ball over a lot and get hardly any offensive rebounds. They are an excellent FT shooting team but don't get to the line very often.

Their leading scorer is Jack Karasinski, a 6'7" F who missed most of last season after a concussion.  He was at William & Mary then. He's scoring 18.3 PPG on 68% 2FG shooting and 50% 3FG shooting. That's in 25 minutes a game.

Ben Johnson was pre-season All-ASUN.  He's 6'3". He's averaging 12.6 PPG on 48% and 31% shooting.  He scored 20 against us last year.

Billy Smith is scoring 10.4 PPG on 64% 2FG shooting and 36% 3FG shooting.  He's 6'7" and started his career at Miami.  Had 16 in last year's game.

Their leading rebounder is Curt Hopf (5.4), he missed all of last season due to injury. Dylan Branson, who transferred from SEMO, leads them with a little over 3 assists per game.

BG will be favored in this one and I hope we are able to turn the tables from last year.  After this one, we next to return to action in Tempe, playing Weber State first.

Standings, Tiebreaker, Shrug

 

OK, so after last night, here is where things stand.

OU got a huge win beating a UT team that played a completely listless second half.  There was one call that went against them, and I get it, it can make a difference in football, but I felt like OU was better than them play after play.

Anyway, they are out.

A bunch of people were trying to figure out the tiebreakers for various scenarios.  I know @hustlebelt eventually concluded what I did, which is that it is borderline impossible to interpret some of the language in the tie breaker rules that the MAC published.

As @hustlebelt pointed out, this may be why the Big Ten took four days to figure out whether Oregon had clinched a berth in the title game.

My observation would be that the MAC hired the same people who write instructions for assembling furniture to write these tie-breaking guidelines. As an aside, @Hustlebelt and I should be hired next year and we will get it right.

So.  BG wins both or loses both and it is over.

The complicated part comes with a split.

If BG beats Ball State and loses to Miami, then for there to be a conversation at 6-2, Ohio would have to lose to Ball State and UB beat Kent.  Miami is in. If there was a tie for the second spot with OU, BG, and UB, I make BG and UB 4-0 among common opponents and OU 3-1 (loss to Ball State).  I can't take it any further...and I might have that wrong.

If BG lost to Ball State and beat Miami, and OU lost to Ball State and UB beat Kent, you have a 4-way tie with two slots.  I make it Miami and UB in the final, because BG and OU would have both lost to Ball State, now a common opponent and Miami and UB did not.

Hopefully, some better info will come out.  This exact process was why the MAC coaches in basketball wanted to get rid of double byes.  You are conferring big advantages on these minute tie-breakers.  I predict that controversy in major conferences on this matter will lead to conference semi-finals.

Falcons Get First D1 Win

After the game, Coach Simon said this was an important game for us and it was.  We had some tough games to start with and then we're on the road for a little while and this was a game with a not-great D1 team and we needed to put it away.

Which we did.

The first half did not go so great.  Five minutes in, BG was down 14-5.  With 10 minutes left, the Purple Eagles were still up 9.  BG went on an 11-2 run to tie it up with 6:50 left.  Niagara led for most of the remainder of the half, and led 37-33 at the break. BG led for :29 in the first half.

In the post-game, Coach said he asked the team kindly if they might not focus on playing defense in the second half, to which they kindly agreed (or words to that effect).

BG had the lead a minute-and-a-half in and led for the last 16 minutes of the game.  The decisive exchange came with about 9 minutes left.  BG was up 4.  They got a Butler 3FG, a stop, a Butler 2FG, a stop, a Butler 3FG, a stop, a Johnson 2FG, a stop and a Johnson 3FG and with 6:51 BG was up 17.

It was over at that point.  Win probability is 99%.  Niagara got it to 8 with :35 left, but BG was in control the rest of the way.

BG scored 43 points in the second half.  40 of them came from Towns, Johnson and Butler.

The game was played at 63 possessions, which is really slow.  BG had a great offensive game--1.21 points per possession, which they got to only twice last year in D1 games.  In the last 10 years, they have only lost twice when scoring at that pace. They held Niagara to 1.08, which is not a great defensive game, but good enough.  Also, BG was able to be that efficient while playing at NU's pace.

BG shot 64% for EFG, their second highest in the Simon era (Lipscomb).  That's 67% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG, both of which are scalding.  Niagara shot 53%, making 42% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG. 

BG had the advantage on turnovers, but had a strong disadvantage on offensive rebounding and a small one on FT Rate. NU made 10 of 14 and BG made 9 of 10 at the line.

BG had some stellar offensive performances.

First, Marcus Johnson.  He had 24 points....that's 8-9 on 2FG and 2-2 on 3FG and 2-2 at the line. Five rebounds and 3 assists to go with it.  He's on his way to being a national media darling.  Note that Coach Simon said after the game that he might be best at passing...called him an "elite" passer.

Derrick Butler had a similar game.  He was sick last week, which explains his low minute count in Lansing. He had 16 points on 4 of 5 2FG shooting, 2 of 2 on 3FG and 2-2 at the line. Add 3 rebounds and 3 assists.

And Sam Towns, had 16 on 4 of 7 2FG, 2 of 3 from 3FG, 2-2 at the line, 5 rebounds and 2 blocked shots.

That's 3 pure jet fuel offensive performances. Javonte Campbell only scored 5 and only had 3 shots for 2FG, but he's a strong defender and contributes either way.

Point being, BG has some weapons.  A good example is Sam Towns, who made 1 3FG last year and has 4 so far this year.  Coach says he has worked hard in the gym. Campbell didn't score, Khayat played only 15 minutes and Squier did not play at all.  BG has a lot of weapons...this was a team we were supposed to beat.  They will need to sharpen it up for tougher games in the conference, but if it comes together we have the potential of being really tough to play.

Next up is Bellarmine on Saturday from Louisville.  BG should be favored against the winless Knights who smoked BG in the Stroh last year for one of their 8 wins.

Purple Eagle Preview

The Niagara Purple Eagles are picked last in MAAC by Blue Ribbon.  Coaches have them 8th.  Kenpom had them second to last--13th--second to last, ahead of only Canisius.

They have made 3 NCAA tournament appearances, the last one in 2007. They made the Sweet Sixteen in 1970 with a team coached by legend Frank Leyden and led by Hall-of-Famer Calvin Murphy.

In the 1950s, they were regulars in the NIT when it was an important tournament.  Their early teams featured Larry Costello, who went on to be an NBA Champion as a player and coach and 2nd-team All-NBA and is in the Basketball Hall of Fame.

This is our 10th meeting, with Niagara leading the series 6-3.  BG won 2 out of 3 in the 1950s, but it has been tougher going since then. Niagara has won the last 4, the last of which was in 2010 at Calihan Hall in a hidden corner of some bigger tournament.

They are coached by Greg Paulus, remembered as a three-time all-ACC guard for Duke.  He was an assistant at Navy, OSU, Louisville and GW before getting the Niagara gig.  He is 68-80 in his sixth season.

They are 1-2, 0-2  in D1 play.  They lost by 36 @MSU and then lost in OT to Detroit (in Calihan Hall...whooaaaaa).

Like many teams, Niagara had a complete roster turnover from last year.

Niagara's kenpom is 333.  Detroit is 343.  BG is 252.

ESPN gives BG a 74% chance of winning and kempom gives BG a 77% chance.

Niagara is led by Olumide Adelodun, who actually played two years for OU before transferring to DII Winona and then came to Niagara.  He is 6'5", scores 16 PPG on 46% 3FG shooting and 4 RPG.  

Jahari Williamson is a G who transferred from Elon.  He is scoring 11 PPG on 50% 3FG shooting. 

Jadean Marshall is 6'4" and a transfer from Omaha.  He is scoring 10.3 PPG on a rough 38% shooting.

Josiah Davis leads the team with 11 assists.  He transferred from Tennessee Tech.

Their top rebounder is Justice Smith at 4.3 RPG. He's 6'6" and a transfer from East Tennesee State.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (2-9)  Beat Georgetown

PSU:  (9-1) Beat Purdue

TX A&M: (7-2) Beat New Mexico State

ODU:  (4-6)  Lost to James Madison

Akron:  (2-7) #MACTION

NIU: (5-4) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-9) #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) #MACTION

CMU (3-6) #MACTION

WMU: (5-4) #MACTION

BSU (3-6): #MACTION

MU:  (5-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Michigan State Scores Last 18 Points to Win

Things were actually going pretty well for the Falcons.  Heading into the last media timeout of the first half, BG was up 12 points.  The last four minutes--my BG English professors taught me that this is foreshadowing--went 15-3 to MSU and it was tied at the half.

Even so, if I had told you we'd be tied at halftime, you'd have been OK with that.

BG came out hard in the second half and had an 8-point lead with 11 minutes left.   MSU had it tied with 9:35 left. BG led by 4 with 7:11 left.  The score was 72-68. The sad fact is that BG did not score again while MSU scored 18 points in that period (40-minute equivalent of 102).  

It was a disaster.  Coach said BG got a "little shot happy" and that's clear...they missed 6 3FGs in that period (40-minute equivalent of 34), some of them just rimming out and a decent number as open looks.  They also missed 2 2FGs, the front end of a 1-1, and had 3 turnovers.

MSU is a good team, it was on their floor, and the Falcons led for over 24 minutes but winning games like this is really hard for a reason.

The announcers mentioned that BG hadn't won a P5 game since 2005.  I went back and looked, that was a crazy win over Virginia Tech when there was a scramble at the rim at the buzzer and a VA Tech player tipped it into their own basket.  No replay in those days, and Dakich said after the game that his strategy was to get off the floor as fast as possible and "make them drag us out," an approach that worked out poorly in a buzzer-banging blizzard in Buffalo a while later.

Anyhow.

The game was played at 71 possessions, our slowest of the year.  BG had 1.02 points per possession, which is below the national average of 1.05.  The Falcons were outshot...their 61% on 2FG is excellent, but the 19% on 3FG is far from it....especially when 42% of your shots are from 3FG.  (Nationally, 40% of shots have been from 3FG this year). BG only shot worse from 3FG 3 times last year. Turnovers were close...MSU was dominant on the offensive boards, as expected, and made 28 of 32 FTs, while BG made 13 of 14.  Overall, BG was called for 26 fouls and MSU for 12.

Marcus Johnson had 23 points, but it took him 24 shots to get there. He was 8 of 13 from 2FG and 1-11 from 3FG.  Coach said after the game that we are asking a lot out of Marcus right now, and it was made worse with foul trouble.  He won't go 1-11 again, Coach said.  And he wasn't intended to play that many minutes.  He also led the team with 5 rebounds and had 4 turnovers.

Campbell had 14 points on 6 of 10 and 0 of 3 shooting.  He also had 4 turnovers and 2 steals.

Youssef Khayat on 3 of 5 2FG shooting and 7-7 at the line.

This is a team still very much trying to find combinations that work. Simon played 10 guys.

• Khayat 37
• Campbell 36
• Johnson 35
• Thomas 28
• Towns 26
• Green 11
• Felt 9
• Butler 8 (Down each game from 28 at Southern Miss)
• Humphrey 7
• Exacte 2
• Squire DNP

We played 19 lineups for the game.  I feel like there's a foundation with the starters--I am surprised that we haven't gotten more out of our depth. BG had 6 bench points and two players (Butler and Humphrey) had terrible +/- in limited minutes.

There is a long way to go. We can get our first D1 win on Tuesday against Niagara (#333), they lost to MSU by 36.  They are coached by Duke star Greg Paulus.

Football Nabs Verbal

BG has a verbal commit for football.  It is Reece Little, from Findlay.  He's a 6'3" and 200 pound TE who played with one of the top QBs in the country---Ryan Montgomery, who is going to Georgia.

247 shows offers from UB, UA and EMU.   He played and contributed since he was a sophomore, was first-team all-conference.

Ohio Prep Redzone had him #124 in OH and #9 at TE and seems to project as a hybrid catch/block guy that is increasingly popular in offenses today.

Signing day is December 4 and roster chaos should start shortly thereafter.

Welcome to the Falcons, Reece.

Spartan Preview

 On the banks of Red Cedar...that's where BG is headed on Saturday to battle the Michigan State Spartans.

You know about these guys.  Twenty-six straight NCAA appearances, 37 in total.  Fourteen Elite Eights and 21 Sweet Sixteens.  Ten Final fours, 3 finals, two titles.

There are 16 regular season Big Ten Championships and 6 tournament titles.

Since Magic Johnson walked onto campus, MSU has been a dominant NCAA team.

They aren't at the high point right now, to be sure.  They have non-winning records in two of the last four seasons. They have not finished in a ranked position in any of those four years.

Part of the issue is that Izzo doesn't want to get guys out of the portal.  Even when he picked up 2 this year, they were non-G4 players, because he doesn't want to upset the players who are already there.

The teams have played 14 times, and BG has won 3.  One of those (1989) was @MSU...and the next year BG beat them at Anderson Arena in one of the building's most memorable games. Since then, the Spartans have won 5 straight.

They were picked #6 in the Big Ten by Blue Ribbon and #5 in the official poll. They are 2-1 on the season, with easy wins over Monmouth and Niagara and then an 8-point loss to Kansas this week.  Their current kenpom ranking is #34.

Both Kenpom and ESPN give them a 98% chance of winning the game on Saturday.

Jaxon Kohler leads them on the stat sheets, averaging a 12.2 and 10.3 double double in 19 minutes off the bench.  Shoots 48% from the field.

Next is Jaden Akins, a 6'4" G.  He's scoring 11.7 on 45% shooting overall.  

Frankie Filder is one of those transfers, a 6'7" All-Summit player from Omaha.  He scores an incredibly inefficient 11.7 on 31% overall shooting.  He has made 17 of 20 from the line.

Freshman Jase Richardson scores 10 a game shooting 65% coming off the bench.

R-RF Jeremy Fears has 22 assists over 5 turnovers in 3 games.

One note:  They have been terrible from distance.  They try only 30% from 3FG and are #347 in the country at making them (20%).  As expected, they play good defense, at #11 in the country (.92 per possession). 

MAC Football Standings and discussion

 

So here is where things stand.  This is the best thing ever....

There are a myriad of things that could happen.  As an aside, big multi-team tie-breakers are a recognized weakness of not having divisions.  A lot comes down to a little.  But that's what we have.

As a reminder, the MAC Tiebreaker Policy is here.

With two wins, BG is in, because Miami would have two losses. Miami would be the second team because they beat OU if it is head to head, but it's more complicated if WMU, UT or UB also finishes a with 2 losses.

There is a significant chance that there will be a tiebreaker at two losses. In fact, there's reason to think all of the 2 loss teams win out...leaving those three, plus OU (if they beat Ball State), and either BG or Miami assuming the loser of that game wins their other game.

Of course, it doesn't have to go that way.  OU could beat UT.  EMU could beat UB or WMU, especially UB @ EMU. Miami could lose to NIU.  Ball State is a danger...all four of their conference losses have been by less than a TD. 

Look...OU loses twice, BG or Miami twice, WMU, UB and UT once, and we have a tie-breaker at 3 losses...scenario requires UT to lose to Akron.

We will know more soon--in fact, by the time we head to Muncie, things will be much clearer.

Game on.

Sweet Victory

 The beat goes on for the Falcons...they are playing outstanding football and control their own destiny.  Two wins and they are in the title game.  One win and its still possible, all depending on who ends up where.

This is what we were promised.  It took a long time to get here, but this was the team we promised.  It didn't always look like it would get here, but last night there can be no doubt.  Two more games...playing high-tension November ball.  

WMU won the toss and took the ball.  In what would be a precursor, BG took them three and out.  BG took the punt and went on a 12-play, 4 minute drive that ended with a Zach Long 50 yard FG.  Long--an injury replacement--is turning into a real weapon.

The teams traded punts and then WMU drove down the field and scored a TD...up 7-3, now in the early 2nd, they pooched the kickoff, which was muffed and recovered by WMU. 

Bam Booker took a brutal hit and was out cold.  He was on the field for a long time before he left on a stretcher.  The silence in the stands was scary.  You can't tell much from the stands, but I just watched the replay and I cannot believe that didn't at least get sent to a replay.  It surely looked enough like targeting to get a look.  But, that did not happen.  Also, the technicality of the targeting rules sometimes get by me...but it was a brutal hit to the head.

Last night, BG said that he was awake, speaking and had movement in his extremities.  Best to him on his recovery.

Coach said he went to the sideline and reported to the team that Booker looked like he would be OK. The team clearly responded to that news. The game's key sequence unfolded next.

WMU had the ball on the BG 37.  Saad took a runner down for a loss of 3, Horne came running full force and blew Wolff up for a six-yard loss, and then WMU got 5 yards on 3rd down and punted BG to the 16.

Down 7-3, BG drove the 84 yards in 6 plays for a TD. Starting with a 19 yard Stewart run, 21 yards to Fannin in heavy traffic over the middle on play 2, Johnson for 6 on play 4, Bazelak-Malcon Johnson for 12 to convert on 3rd and 3 and then a 25 yard pass to Fannin on a play Loeffler says they put in two days ago for the score.

Up 14-3, Ja'Cory Benjamin made an incredible pick on the first WMU play from scrimmage.  BG started on the WMU 26, Stewart ran it to the 1 and then Bazelak scored on a tush-pushy play and BG was up 17-7 with 4 left in the half.

Remember, BG gets the ball to start the second half because WMU took the ball to start the game.

WMU got a drive going, getting to the BG 35.  Then, the defense bowed up, forced a 50-yard FG that missed and BG headed into the locker room 17-7.

The game was far from over, but the tone was set.  That sequence after the Booker injury clearly changed the game.

BG took the kickoff, converted a 3rd and 6 on a QB draw, hit Fannin twice for a total of 32 yards and then Strwart ran it in from 17 to put BG up 24-7.  Again, the game is not over, but BG has control of the game.

WMU took the kick, made a first down and then a BG sack on 2nd and 6 followed by a delay of game penalty had the Broncos punting.  On the second play of the drive, Stewart ran to 60 and Bazelak hit Fannin for 10 yards on the second play for the score and it was 31-7 6:30 left to play in the 3rd.

As it turned out, the game was over.  Just bookend the sequence from the Booker injury to that TD and see how BG blew the doors off WMU.

WMU scored on the next drive, but it took them 6 minutes.  BG did a great job making WMU work their way down the field slowly.  Down 24, they went for 2 and missed, leaving BG ahead 31-13, and 18 play lead that still is 3 scores.  The 4th quarter played itself out and the Falcons had a huge home win.

Sweet victory.

First credit goes to the defense. WMU came in leading the MAC in scoring, yards per play, passing efficiency and yards per rush. 

And the BG defense shut them down.  The week before against NIU they had 200 rushing yards...in this one, they had 97 yards on 36 attempts. Wolff was 24 of 32 passing, 2 INT and most importantly 8 yards a completion.  Their longest play was 25 yards--two of them, both passes, and one of them in garbage time.  And 4 sacks.  And 4 of 15 on 3rd down.

BG kept the ball in from of them, denied the run, got a key INT and dominated the best offensive team in the MAC.  I honestly think we call a strong game on defense.  We have guys where they need to be and they are making their share of plays.

The offense relied on its three best players.  There's nothing wrong with having good players. Fannin was 10-137 and 2 TDS.  Has to make first-team All-American. Stewart had 15 carries for 150 yards.  Did not lose any yards.  Scored once. Was a pure force, as he is at his best.

And Conner Bazelak, who is playing really well.  He isn't going to get Matt Johnson numbers because we play different...we ran only 56 plays, for example.  But he does what they need in a complex offense and without even decent WRs. He was 15 of 22 for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns, and probably a half-dozen perfect throws into very small windows.  PFF graded him at 91, a career-high, including all of his schools. His season grade of 82 leads the MAC.

BG averaged 7.2 yards per play.  If that might work for you.

Except for the kickoff muff, BG's special teams were very good.  Long had a long FG. Henderson put them inside the 20 twice on 3 punts. 

Falcons Harvest Guaranteed Win

The Falcons hit the floor at home against NAIA Taylor...it's on the schedule to be a win and that's what happened.  The Falcons beat Taylor 107-43.  Not much to see here except for the first minutes of Jaxon Pardon, who nailed a 3FG, had a steal and then a DUNK for 5 points in 5 minutes.

Next up is Michigan State on Saturday.

WMU Preview....

 What is their body of work?

WMU is the surprise team of the MAC.  They were picked 7th, but have started 4-1 in MAC play.  They won their first 4---@BS, AK, @UB and Kent....before losing to NIU at KZoo last week.  They have played the two worst teams in the MAC--as BG has--to get this far.  The road win @UB certainly  signified they were going to be competitive.

Over the past 10 seasons, BG has played WMU 6 times and there has been a 3-3 split.  A loss to WMU was Coach Jinks' last game.  Loeffler is 2-1 vs. WMU and 1-0 vs. current coach Lance Taylor.

BG is a 9-point home favorite.

How experienced are they?

34 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart.   Old team.

Who are their national leaders?

Jaden Nixon is #10 in all-purpose yards and #4 in yards per carry, #15 in rushing TDs.

Hayden Wolff is #18 in passing efficiency

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games.   This has been huge---8 were against AK and Kent.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Going to be a good QB battle here. Above we mentioned Wolff's number for the season...he is also #1 in MAC play for pass efficiency.  He has 69% completions, 12 TDs over 3 INT and over 12 yards a completion. Bazelak is #3.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC with 41 points a game and 7 yards per play. BG's defense allows 16.4 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They surely can.  They lead the MAC with 6.1 yards per carry. BG allows 4.2 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #1 in pass efficiency. BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 56% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They do.  44%, #2 in MAC.  BG allows 32% which is #5 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.1 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 13 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

Yes, sacks on 4.9% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (34) and 10th in yards per play allowed (6.6).  BG scores 25. which is #7 and 5.6 yards per play which is #7.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Not great, #7 at 4.6 yards per carry allowed. At 3.9 yards per carry, BG's offense is #8. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are #11 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 64% completions, 11 TDs over 5 INT and almost 14 yards a completion, which is a ton.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 68% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

WMU allows 39%, which is #6.  BG converts 32%, which is #9.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5.7 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.3 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Average, they have sacks on 5.1% of passes. BG allows sacks on 10% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #8 in net punting. No blocks.  In MAC play, BG is #1.

Punt Return?

They are OK, #9 in the MAC.  0 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's accurate.  All games he's 9 of 10 with a long of 45.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 27.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 30, which is really good.

Intangible Miscellany

Look, we have waited a long time.  With 3 wins, we go to Detroit.  But winning championships is hard and so is winning 3 more games in a row.  WMU is a good team--probably not as good as their record, but good.  This sets up as a highly competitive matchup.  A very good WMU offense against a very good BG defense.  This would be an awesome time for BG to pull out some plays like they did against UT and really move the ball.  A loss doesn't end the season but makes it much more competitive.  If BG's best team comes out, we will win this one, but I wouldn't expect anything other than a really tough game.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (1-9)  Lost to Bucknell

PSU:  (8-1) Smoked Washington

TX A&M: (7-2) Idle

ODU:  (4-5)  Idle

Akron:  (2-7) #MACTION

NIU: (5-4) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-9) #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) #MACTION

CMU (3-6) #MACTION

WMU: (5-4) #MACTION

BSU (3-6): #MACTION

MU:  (5-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Taylor Preview

Monday, BG has Taylor University in for MBB.  Taylor is an interdenominational, evangelical university in Upland, IN, which is between Fort Wayne and Indy. 

They compete in the NAIA and their nickname is Trojans.  Both John Groce and Chris Holtman are Taylor alumni.

Groce credits Taylor for molding who he became.

They had a legendary coach, Paul Patterson, who is in the NAIA Hall-of-Fame and was the winningest collegiate coach in Indiana history.

Their current coach is Austin Peters, who is in his first season. Most of his experience in coaching is at smaller colleges, but he did work in Drewland at Valpo.

They were 11-18 last year.  Their last winning season was 2019-20.  Their last D1 game was in 2018.  They lost to Miami by 31.

The Trojans are 4-1 this year.  They lost their last game against IU-Kokomo.

They can shoot.  They score 82 points a game, making 47% shooting overall and 38% from 3FG. This equals out to 1.14 points per possession, which is really good.

They allow only 31% 3FG shooting. 

They don't have one big scorer, rather than have a handful of guys in the 10-12 PPG range.  Anton Webb, who is 6'8", average over 12 RPG. 

Overall, they lack height, which is normal in these games.  Normally, the BG bigs have their best game of the season.

Look, this is on the schedule for a win.  Anything other than an easy win where everyone gets on the court is a disappointment.

Davidson holds off Falcon MBB Rally

Bowling Green MBB fell into a hole in the first half last night and despite a much improved second half performance, was unable to close the gap and lost their home opener.

At the first media timeout it was 7-4 but in the next four minutes Davidson went on a 12-2 run, causing Coach Simon to call timeout and replace every player on the floor.  It stayed steady for 10 minutes or so but didn't get better...an 8-0 Davidson run made it a 20 point lead with 4:31 to play.  BG shaved it to 16 at the half.

Davidson shot 53% overall and 46% from 3FG for the half, while BG was 42% and 50%.  Beyond the percentages, Davidson made 7 3FGs, had 2 fewer turnovers and 5 ORebs to BG's 1.

The second half was much different. Sparked by 2 Marcus Johnson 3FGs, BG went on an 11-2 run to cut the lead to 7 less than two minutes into the half.   The game stabilized there, Davidson had the lead to 13 with 13 left to play, but BG had it back to 8 shortly thereafter.  BG made another run and cut the lead to 4 with about 10 to play, but Davidson is a good team and had it back to 9 two possessions later.

It stayed in the 6-7-8 range when Jevontae Campbell made 2 FTs, got a steal and converted a layup, taking the lead from 8-4 with 1:33 left.

It was still 4 with 1:19 left and Trey Thomas got a steal.  Here the best opportunity was presented, but BG missed the shot and Davidson scored on their next possession.  BG had one more shot, Campbell on the line, missed his 2nd FT when BG was down 3.  BG had another shot down 4 and did not score then either and it was over.  91-85 final.

All in all, far from a disaster.  Not a success either.

Game had 76 possessions, third highest D1 game in the Simon era.

BG scored 1.12 points per possession, normally a winning number.  They shot 47% from 2FG and 46% from 3FG.  Unfortunately, they allowed Davidson 1.2 points per possessions, usually a losing number. Those offensive rebounds were key--Davidson was +10 on second chance points.  They were also 23 of 28 at the line, for a +4.  BG was 19 of 25 at the line for a respectable 76%.

Individually...Jevontae Campbell.  Woof. He finished with 30 points, including scoring 15-straight BG points in the stretch run. He made 10-13 on 2FGS and 10-12 at the line for a highly efficient night, adding 4 steals and 4 turnovers. 

Marcus Johnson had 19 in 22 minutes, making 5 of 10 from 3FG. Khayat had 10 on 1 of 2 and 2 of 3 shooting.  Trey Thomas had 10 but it took 9 shots. Sam Towns had 11 rebounds and blocked 4 shots.

BG had seven players over 10 minutes.  Johnson, Towns, Khayat, Campbell and Thomas started, with Butler and Humphrey coming off the bench for more than 10 minutes, and Felt, Squire, Exacte and Green playing less than 10.  BG used 23 lineup combinations, with 10 of them out there for less than one minute.

So, the Falcons hit 0-2.  Next week is a non-D1 game against Taylor and @MSU. The next realistic chance for a D1 win is against Niagara on 11/29.

MBB Home Opener Preview

BG hits their second game and home opener on Friday.  The opponent is the Davidson Wildcats. They are a legit all-time program. They have made 15 Big Dance appearances, making the Elite 8 in 68 and 69.  Of course, you know who else was in that 68 tourney. Those teams were coached by Lefty Driesell. They have been in 3 times in the last 10 years.

Their head coach is Matt McKillop who is in his third year, replacing his legendary father Bob.  He is 31-33 in that time.

They play in the Atlantic-10, where they were picked 12th in the A10 poll, 11th in Blue Ribbon.  Here's the thing.  The A-10 is the 7th ranked conference in kenpom.  Based on the kenpom rankings, 10 teams in the A-10 would be ranked ahead of the best team in the MAC.  That includes Davidson---and UMASS, in the MAC next year.

They beat a non-D1 opponent in their opener.

Return 4 starters.  Interestingly, there is no graduate school at Davidson, so grad transfers, or even your own guys using their grad year, cannot happen.

They have played BG twice.  There was a home-home in 86-87, with each team winning on their home floor.  Davidson is 9-9 vs. teams currently in the MAC. 

Looking at a few players, Reed Bailey was third-team All-A10 in the preseason. He scored 12.7 PPG and added 5.8 RPG as a sophomore last year.  He's 6'10.

They also have Sean Logan, another 6'10" player.  Didn't put up big numbers last year, but he did block 58 shots, bad news given BG was blocked 10 times last game.

That's not all...they also have Joe Hurlbert, a Colorado transfer.  He is also 6'10". Played only 26 minutes in Colorado, but they had some NBA big men ahead of him.

Connon Kochera is a 6'5 G who transferred two years ago from William & Mary,  He scored 13 PPG last year and made 36% from 3FG.

Bobby Durkin is a sophomore G who drained a game-winning 3FG to beat Maryland last year.  Zach Laput is a DII transfer who is a 6'4" G and was in double figures in their opener.

This is an outstanding test for BG.  Davidson is a 4.5 point road favorite.

MAC Football Update, 11/7

 So here is what things look like today.  Six teams are still in play. 

A few thoughts:  If BG wins out, they are in the title game.  Both WMU and Miami would have two losses and OU would be in if they won out.

UT and UB need three of the one-loss teams to lose to get into a tiebreaker. That could easily happen.

First, they need to win out.  UB has the easier route...UT hosts OU in what will be a touch game.

It wouldn't surprise me if all four of the one loss teams dropped a game coming home.  Miami could lose to NIU.  WMU  could lose to BG.  BG could lose to Miami. OU could lose to UT.  Talk above havoc. A six-way tie with two spots to fill.  (By the way, I think--could be wrong--BG wins this tiebreaker under that scenario--and UT and WMU battle for the other spot.

I like the position we are in.  We are playing meaningful games in November and are matched with two of the three teams we are tied with and both at home.  Long way to go.  This is a hard race to win.  But I think we have a shot.

Let's get it done.  Run the damn ball.

Falcons Get Road Win

Sometimes it was a little rough, but it's November, we're chasing a berth in the title game and we're on the road.  We needed to win and we did.

It was typical MACTION.  The stands were mostly empty.  Atypically, there was a monsoon in the 3rd quarter (though only for a few minutes).  Like most MACTION games, it had an element of the surreal to it.

BG dominated the first 27 minutes of the game or so. BG had 186 yards of total offense in the first half, but stalled first on the 12, then on the 22 (with 2 crucial BG penalties costing them) and then on the 19.  BG hit FGs all three times and led 9-0.  Still, you have to figure it should have been more.

With inside 3 minutes to play in the half, BG had CMU on 3rd and 6.  Jefferson broke away and ran for 44 yards to the BG 27.  A DPI followed and a couple plays later, CMU scored and converted all those stalled BG drives into being down only 9-7, and they would get the ball coming out of the half.

Jefferson went back to pass on the first play, Anthony Hawkins hit his arm before he threw and BG recovered.  Even so, BG was preparing to stall again, facing a 4th and 4 from the CMU 33.  In a key play, Bazelak went back to pass, was pressured, scrambled free and hit Malcom Johnson for a 20-yard gain and a critical first down.  Two plays later, Levi Gazerak caught a pass and drove into the end zone, and BG led 16-7.  The terms of the game were set for the rest of the way.

BG got a three and out and then the offense, going for the kill, drove to the CMU 8 before the drive stalled out.  BG attempted a short FG (27 yards) that was blocked and CMU ran it back to their own 31.  Here's a chance for a big change for CMU, though their momentum was blunted by the 3 minute media timeout that followed the block.

CMU brought in a new QB, a true FR, and they drove to the BG 28.  On 4th and 2, Lukes broke free on the right side and gained 22 yards to the BG 6 and it looked like CMU might be back in the game.  Alas, they were called for a block in the back, set back to 4th and 4.  They ran Lukes again, but this time BG shut him down a yard short and CMU's chance to seize the game was lost.

Starting the 4th, a 56-yard Henderson punt put CMU on the 2.  BG got the 3 and out and then CMU shanked the punt, covering only 26 yards to the CMU 33.  With 11 minutes left, BG had a chance to close the door and they did. 

BG covered the 33 yards in 8 plays, killing 5:26 off the clock, perhaps the slowest 33-yard drive in history.  Seven of the plays were runs.  Patterson converted a 4th and 1 from the 5 and then went into the end zone on the next play to put BG up 23-7 with 5:42 to play.  The lead is the very, very long side of two possessions.

It's important to note that CMU had one completed pass and 6 yards FOR THE GAME at this point.  They picked it up on this drive. They started on the 25, and BG was playing prevent.  It's frustrating, but it took the Chips 11 plays to score...spending just under 4 minutes--making a comeback practically impossible. They went for 2.  BG lined up Horne at LB and then pre-snap he moved to the left edge while the 3 other down linemen shifted to the right.  I don't know if it confused CMU or what, but when they snapped it Horne ran around the end unblocked and hit Lukes before he could get to the line and sealing the victory.

BG gained 6 yards a play to 4.8 for CMU.  Stewart had 20 carries for 117, padded a little bit with some runs as BG on the last possession. Patterson had a huge game with 75 yards on 9 carries.   The CMU defense won their share of the battles with the BG line on Stewart runs, especially in the first half.

Bazelak had an OK night .  He was 19 of 30 for 207 yards.  There were some missed throws.  It was also VERY WINDY.

On national TV, Harold Fannin had 7 receptions for 86 yards.  In all, 9 Falcons caught passes.

CMU's QB woes certainly hurt them.  They finished with 63 passing yards. They tried to make up for it with a strong running game, and finished with 187 yards on 38 attempts, a 4.9 average.  A lot of that was the QB.  Their main RB, Lukes, was held to 72 in 20 carries, a 3.6 average and a victory for the BG defense.

BG committed 12 penalties for 88 yards, which Loeffler admitted had given him bad flashbacks

Again, not a great game but the game was won.  Next up, a huge battle with WMU, who plays tonight against NIU.  MACTION from The Doyt.

MBB Loses Opener

BG went to Hattiesburg to open the season and lost to the Golden Eagles 77-68.  Since BG did not play any exhibition games (opting for closed scrimmages), it was our first time to see the team with 10 new players.

It was a competitive game, but USM was in control almost the whole way.  BG led for less than a minute. USM led for the last 35 minutes, though never more than 12.  BG made a couple runs to get it close but USM always punched back.

BG was down 11 early in the second half...BG got hot from the outside and got it to 2 with 14:58 left. But it was back to 7 a minute later.

In the closing minutes, BG cut the lead to 5 with 1:35 left.  They had two possessions to try and cut it below that, but came up empty both times and that ended up being their last chance.

The game was fast paced, at 74 possessions. BG struggled on offense, scoring .92 points per possession. We expected to see a lot of 3FGs and we did.  BG took 42% of their shots from distance.  They were reasonable accurate, making 36%.  However, they made only 42% of their 2FGs, had a high number of turnovers, did not crash the offensive boards and only got to the line 8 times,  making 4.  (One other note, added after the original post...USM blocked 10 BGSU shots, which is 26% of our total shot attempts and almost half of our missed 2FGs. I can't remember us giving up that many.)

USM had 1.04 points per possession. They made only 23% from 3FG, but scorched the BG interior defense, making 64% from 2FG. (Last year's national average was 50%).  They also turned the ball over and didn't offensive rebound, but were 12 of 14 at the line.

USM had 19 points off turnovers, which I don't usually look at.  It seemed to me that USM was especially effective in taking missed shots and live ball turnovers and turning them into easy baskets.

BG played a relatively tight 8-man rotation. The announcers said that BG played two closed scrimmages and has used a different starting lineup every time out.

Starters were Johnson (32 minutes), Butler (27), Thomas (30), Towns (29) and Campbell (32).  Off the bench were Green (13) Khayat (11), Exacte (10), Squire (7), Humphrey (4) and Felt (2).  Mahmoud appeared to be in street clothes, and Pardon and Adem DNP.

USM played only 6 guys 10 minutes or more.  BG used 23 lineup combinations and USM used 9. The best lineup was the starting line up, +5.

Thomas and Butler led the team with 17 points each.  Thomas was really effective, making 5 of 7 from 3FG.  Butler was 4 of 8 from 2 FG and 3 of 10 from 3FG.  Marcus Johnson had 15 with 4 of 8 from 2 and 2 of 5 from 3.  Campbell also had 14, 5 of 10 from 2FG and 4 of 6 at the line.  He also had 4 assists, 4 steals and 3 TOs.

Sam Towns had 0 points and 10 rebounds.

So, one we go.  Tough game Friday night against Davidson.  

CMU Preview...Will the Beat Go On?

What is their body of work?

CMU is a traditional MAC power who has been in the wilderness for quite a while.  They rode the Brian Kelly/Butch Jones train to 2 10+ win seasons in 6 years, including a 12-2 ranked year in 2009. There were 3 MAC Championships in there.

In the 9 seasons with Dan Enos and John Bonamego, they won 8 games only once and were 1-11 in the last of those years.  In comes Jim McElwain.  There are a number of ways to bring coaches to the MAC.  You can get an up-and-comer--head coach or assistant.  Or, you can try to rehab a P4 coach...like Jim McElwain, who won 65% of his games at Florida before being fired.

He has won 49% in Mt. Pleasant, with 12-20 over the past three years (including this year), and is said to be on the hot seat.

They are 3-5 and 1-3.  They won their FCS game, beat SD State in Mt. Pleasant, and beat Ball State.  Losses are @FIU (blowout), @Ill, OU, @MU and @EMU.  They have lost 3 in a row.

BG and CMU haven't played much.  Only 3 times since 2010.  BG is 2-1 in that time, with a win by Carl Pelini and Loeffler splitting.  BG won the last meeting in 2022.  BG has won 3 straight at Kelly/Shorts Stadium and the last BG coach to lose there was Gregg Brandon.

BG is a 10 point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

29 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart. 

Who are their national leaders?

Donte Kent is #10 in punt returns.

Jordan Kwiatkowski is #17 in TFL.

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +3 in MAC play.  They have only one TO in MAC games.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Big issues here.  They started with Joe Labas, an Iowa transfer, who is out for the year.  They were to Bert Emmanuel, Jr., and he is now week-to-week and out this week.  This leaves them with Tyler Jefferson, a R-FR from Florida. He's only completed 49% with 0TDs and 1 INT. He is a dual-threat guy.  He started the EMU game, and Emmanuel came in and sparked a wild game they lost. He went the whole way against Miami's stout defense and struggled as expected.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 25 PPG (7th) and gain 6.1 yards per play (5th). BG's defense allows 17.3 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They are strong here. #2 at 5.8 yards per rush.  Also, note that they have a running QB, something the Falcons have really struggled with. BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #11 in team passing efficiency.  Also their top WR, Evan Boyd, will not play.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 64% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  28% overall, #10 in the MAC.  BG allows 30% which is #4 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.5 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 11 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

No...sacks on 10% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36.3) and 9th in yards per play allowed (6.5).  BG scored 25.5 which is #8 and 5.5 yards per play which is #9.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 60% completions, 9 TDs over 1 INT and almost 13 yards a completion.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 69% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

CMU allows 33%, which is #5.  BG converts 33%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.7 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Good pass rush, they have sacks on 9.4% of passes. BG allows sacks on 11% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #4 in net punting. They have been blocked once.  In MAC play, BG is #4.

Punt Return?

They are good, #6 in the MAC.  1 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's very good.  All games he's 11 of 13, 8-8 under 40 with a long of 54.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 25, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

So, look.  Rainy weather.  Certain to be a mostly empty stadium. BG coming off a big win and needs to refocus, which has been a problem for our program over the past few years.  CMU is not healthy.  This should be a good matchup for us and BG needs to click the W heading into a big game against WMU at the Doyt the following Tuesday.