Happy Halloween to the Falcon Nation

 

Weekly Presser

Coach had literally nothing of interest today, nor was he asked anything that could elicit anything interesting.

He got the question of how the staff adjusts to the mid-week schedule...again.  Clawson used to roll his eyes and one time said "I can't believe you guys keep asking about that."

Anyway.  Some other information.

Nick Reimer is no longer on the roster. He was a transfer who played significant snaps in the first two games, was injured, came back for the Kent game and then was listed as unavailable for the UT game.  And now is gone.  This comes amid three weeks of oblique comments from Loeffler about the drama on the team and the previous departures of Billie Roberts and Jaylon Tillman.  After UT, Loeffler said "it should be behind us now," possibly in connection with this latest roster development.

As for as RJ Garcia, I have nothing to report.  He was supposedly healthy, dressed once and since then is listed as unavailable.  No idea.  I can tell you that he used his redshirt at Kansas State.  Also, his brother is a verbal commit to BG and still has it listed on his x.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-8)  Lost to Lehigh

PSU:  (7-0) Beat Wisconsin

TX A&M: (7-1) Beat LSU, big win.  Elko can coach.

ODU:  (4-4)  Smoked Georgia Southern

Akron:  (2-6) ZIPS WIN!!  Beat EMU

NIU: (4-4) The curse of beating ND.  Ball State hits 52 yarder to win

KSU:  (0-8) Smoked by WMU

UT:  (5-3) LOST TO BOWLING GREEN

CMU (3-5) Lost 46-7 to Miami

WMU: (5-3) Blasted Kent

BSU (3-5): Beats NIU on 52 yard FG

MU:  (4-4) Beat CMU 46-7

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Here is how things look.  WIDE OPEN right now.  There is a strong possibility of a tie, so if you are curious here are the official tie breaker rules.

Rockets Vanquished. Jubilation Reigns.

Welcome Home, Baby.

 

In my season preview this year, I cited this situation:

BG-UT, 4th Quarter.  Defense gets a 3 and out and BG has the ball, up 6, with 5:42 left.  UT has 2 timeouts left.  A couple first downs, and the game should be over.  At a minimum, you should be able to force UT to use their timeouts by running the ball.  Unfortunately, BG has no confidence in their ability to run the ball, and goes three and out with 2 pass plays, both incomplete.  They make 0 yards and kill only 1:06.

I said we were a championship team when we put that game away on offense.

Yesterday, BG gets the ball with 8:34 left in the game, up 8. Very similar.  Fannin for 18, Stewart for 18, and little Rahkim Smith bullies the Rocket backs (#21 I see you) to get into the end zone on a 19-yard jet sweep...and BG was up 15.  That's a 5-play drive where BG executed while bleeding time.  It was a 3:23 drive that made it a two score game with 5 to play.  

That's what I'm talking about.

The defense got a four-and-out and the Falcons took the ball over with 4:23 left.  They didn't score, but they made a first down and killed 3:17 off the clock despite the Rockets using their timeouts and the 2 minute time out.  

That's what I'm talking about.

So, so, proud.  This is the team we hoped we would see.  Nothing's decided, but it was an absolutely glorious day...good weather, a big crowd, and a great BG win in the biggest game on the schedule.

Thank you to our guys.  Everyone...coaches, staff, players, families...best band in the MAC...Coach talked afterward about a week of no sleep, apparent drama within the team, putting plays into the game plan until Friday afternoon.  Winning is no accident.  Thank you from the fans for the thrill you gave us yesterday.  I can't wait to watch this team again.

 And if you have seen the stoic Coach Loeffler, have no doubt how much this game means to him.

BG played a really good game.  Starting with the offense, BG had the kind of line play they needed to win in the MAC, especially as the weather begins to turn. Reimer was not dressed, but BG got an outstanding game, especially on pass blocking.  Bazelak threw 30 passes and was only pressured on 5 of them.  PFF graded Jake Burns at 85, Pabst 79 and Padgett at 72, meaning that the up the middle rushes that were killing us did not happen.  Bazelak was sacked twice.

BG finally ran the ball effectively.  Here, I would give credit to the players, but also the coaches.  Our playcalling was at its best.  Other times, I have felt like we continued to run the ball into the line, but BG was really tough to defend....there was a great deal of misdirection...from counters to jet sweeps, and BG showed some creativity in getting its runners into space.  And we executed.

Stewart was 21-99, with a long of 25 and 1 TD.  He was productive, to be sure. We didn't win all of his carries, but plenty.  Jamal Johnson 5-54, Rahkeem Smith, 2-33 and Fannin 2-12---a combined 9-99--that is some incredible counter-production.  And, I think, largely decisive. BG also used Bazelak a couple of times on options.  It was a winning game plan executed well.

BG ran 37 times and passed 27 times.  Bazelak was 17 of 27, with NO INT.  He is playing really well.  BG had 171 yards passing.  Fannin caught 6, Johnson caught 4 and Smith 3.  Levi Gazerak, a true warrior, caught his first TD pass in his career.

(Levi is from North Baltimore, and Coach was in his first days as our coach.  His staff told him they were going to go to North Baltimore to talk to a recruit and he yelled at them that we were supposed to be recruiting locally.)

Defensively, it was a high quality game, starting with two Oladukon picks.  This is so great.  He was the guy who started the team this winter in announcing when they were staying and NOT entering the portal.  This is a guy we need.  He had two picks and one of them, a beautiful INT where he sat on a route to Newton and took it into the end zone, blunting UT just as they were getting some momentum.  He graded 90 from PFF.

Gleason was 30 of 45 for 320 yards.  Newton and Vandeross are high-quality receivers and Candle is an offensive coach and they got the ball a lot.  BG did get pressure on Gleason, as he dropped back 50 times and was pressed on 13 of them.  In particular, I felt like he was really disoriented in the last minutes of the game, when BG's defense was closing it out.  He was wildly inaccurate and made a bad decision to run for a first down on a key 4th down play.

UT came in not running the ball well.  Without Jacquez Stuart, who carried once, they lack the star power they need.  Walenzak carried 15 times for 58 yards, but 200 yards worth of praise from Reghi.

Sipp had 11 tackles and 2 for loss.  Huge game.  Brock Horne had 10 tackles and graded over 80 for run defense and tackling on PFF.

Special teams? BG's punting was not as good as normal, with net punting at 37.  We did keep their punt return from being a factor.  And Zach Long nailed two FGs, from 47 and 35, and all his extra points.  Kickoffs were good except for a weird decision to kick short twice late in the game, giving up yardage and putting the ball in Newton's hands 2 extra times.

Anyway, a complete game.  And a rivalry win.  Loeffler is 3-3 against the Rockets.  This is how it is supposed to be.  A long-time Falcon fan on Twitter noted that Loeffler is the first coach we have had in quite a while who treated the rivalry as importantly as it should be...as in, it's not life and death because it is more important than that.

Well, things look much better now.  With one loss in league play and games against WMU and Miami (two other contenders), BG is playing meaningful November football and has its fate largely in its own hands.  As Coach said, the biggest thing in college football today is winning a big game and then losing one the next week.  They are all tough.  This is why it is hard to win titles.  On to Mt. Pleasant.

Hated Rival Preview

What is their body of work?

Look, these guys are in the same place every year.  Big start, Briggs writes columns about them running the table and making the playoff, by mid-year they are done with that, and yet they are always in the hunt for the MAC title.  They have the best recruiting in the MAC and have been consistently better than BG over a long period.

Last year, the portal bug hit them really for the first time, with DeQuan Finn heading to Baylor and Peny Boone to UCF.

Having said that, the last two games have been absolute classics. In each game, the road team snatched victory with a gut-punching late play. We're back on a Saturday--next year in BG on a Saturday--and we hope it's a good one.

BG is a 3.5 point road dog.

How experienced are they?

28 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart.  More experienced on defense.

Who are their national leaders?

Braden Awls is #12 in INT per game.

Avery Smith is #8 on passes defended

Bryson Hammer is #3 in punt returns

Jerjuan Newton is #5 in receiving TDs

Maxen Hook is #6 in Solo tackles.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +1...9 turnovers lost and 10 gotten.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

So, we don't know who is going to start.  Tucker Gleason was the starter and was injured at UB.  John Alan Richter took his place, rallied them and then QB'd the Rockets past NIU last week. Gleason has played quite a bit and was #2 in the MAC in passing efficiency when he went down.  Richter had a rougher game against a good NIU defense.  Neither one of these guys is DeQuan Finn, but both are high-quality MAC QBs.

What is their scoring and yards per play

The Rockets score 29.6 PPG, which is #4 in the MAC. They only get 5.4 yards per play, which is middle of the pack. BG's defense allows 21.4 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

It is not what it once was. They are averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.8 per rush, 9th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in passing efficiency.  BG is #3 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They have run and passed almost equally, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  37% overall, #7 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

4.5 points per trip, which is not great.  They have 9 empty red zone trips.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.8 points per trip allowed, #9 in the nation. BG has forced 4 scoreless trips and 10 FGs in 31 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

They do...sacks on 4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 9.5% of passing attempts.

Defense:

UT does not have the high-powered offense they have had in the past.  They do however, have what is probably their best defense.

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #2 in scoring defense in the MAC (19.6) and 2nd in yards per play allowed (4.9).  BG scored 25.1 which is #5 and 5.8 yards per play which is #3.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #4 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, lead the MAC with 8 INT, They do allow over 11 yards per reception.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 67% completion is #2 in MAC. BG has 11.4 yards per completion.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

UT allows 35%, which is #5.  BG converts 39%, which is #3.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 4.8 per trip, which is pretty good. Forced 11 FGs in 26 attempts.   BG offense scored 4.5 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, they have sacks on 6.3% of passes. BG allows sacks on 6.9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #6 in net punting.  No blocks, 0 TD.  FWIW, BG is #20 in the nation in net punting.

Punt Return?

They are good, #9 in the country.  Plus one blocked kick.

Placekicking? 

He's pretty good.  8 of 10, long of 48, only 1 miss under 40.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 29, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

On the plus side, BG has tended to show up to play for this game.  They will need to. BG has yet to beat a team with an FBS win...and the FCS team we beat is winless, too.  BG will need to bring the A&M game to have a shot.

I think it's going to be a relatively low scoring game.  I think the key for BG is going to come on the offensive line.  This is a big boy assignment and BG needs to run the ball and protect Bazelak. We also need to have our WRs get open--that will be a big assignment against this defense. With that, BG has a real shot.

The stadium will be filled and hopping.  It would be a huge win for the program and give us a real shot at making it to Detroit.  We can still make it with a loss, but probably would need to win out.

Football Verbals

After strong consideration and discussion with my family and coaches I have decided to decommit from the University of New Hampshire. With that being said after an amazing visit I have decided to flip my commitment to Bowling Green State University! Thank you @Coach_Jackson… pic.twitter.com/rRneBMB0Iu

— Jahai Johnson (@JahaiJohnson) October 20, 2024

We Home🏠 #committed @Coach_Jackson @CoachLoefflerBG @CamdenDietz @AllenTrieu @BG_Football pic.twitter.com/JnOyvfkVk9

— Preston EstoEsta (@Prestoestoe) October 22, 2024

H/T to Rhys Patrykus of Falcon Media for discovering this.

Jahai Johnson is from Piscateway, NJ.  He's a DB/ATH.  According to 247, he had an FBS offer from Jacksonville State, along with half a dozen other FCS offers. He also played WR and Kick returner, one time returning 3 Kickoffs for a TD in one game, believed to be a national record.

The other is Preston Estoesta.  He's a S from Mason, Ohio. He had offers from Akron, Army, Kent, UMass, Navy and 2 FCS offers.

Allen Trieu said he had a good run of Spring camps. 

Welcome to BG, Preston and Jahai.

Loeffler Presser

Scott Loeffler had his presser today.

Not mentioned were two apparent changes in the roster.  As I noted in the game write-up, Jaylon Tillman is no longer on the roster.  Upon closer review, Billie Roberts is also no longer list.

Tillman was a transfer from Grand Valley who played 112 snaps, was targetted twice and had zero receptions, per PFF.  Billie Roberts is from Muskegon and was at one point highly recruited.  He started on DL, and made two big plays in the Minnesota upset.  He moved to O-line this year and played nearly 60 snaps in both the A&M game and the ODU game, while Reimer was injured.

The only real news the Coach had, other than answering a bunch of questions about the rivalry...

Quick note.  Why does everyone at our press conference preface their questions with the word "obviously."  It's bizarre.

Anyway, the only real news was that Coach was asked about the WRs and he said he expects "all of them" to play.  Presumably, that would mean Johnson, Garcia, Hogan and Smith, with Jamal Johnson available as well.   And the conference's best receiver, Harold Fannin Jr.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-7)  Idle

PSU:  (6-0) Idle

TX A&M: (6-1) Beat Miss State

ODU:  (3-4)  Beat Texas St.

Akron:  (1-6) Idle

NIU: (4-3)  Lost to UT in DeKalb

KSU:  (0-7) Lost to us

UT:  (5-2) Beat NIU

CMU (3-4) Lost to EMU

WMU: (4-3) Beat UB 48-41. 3-0 in MAC

BSU (2-5): Lost to Vanderbilt

MU:  (3-4) Beat OU

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

BG Gets Expected Win.

The win BG had to have....they got.  As Coach said after the game, "no disrespect, but we are better than they are, this is what should have happened."  And it did.

On to the Rockets.

Much of the first half was uncomfortably close.  Kent's coach noted that BG was focused on McCray and Floreia, so the run game did open up.  They had 8 rushes for 68 yards in the first quarter.  With the score 13-6, Kent drove deep into BG territory but the BG pash rush forced two incompletions and Kent had to settle for a FG.  (Ulatowski was running for his life almost the entire day...no one has run from danger this much since the last Jurassic Park movie).

The key sequence came next.  With 2:39, BG actually ran a two-minute drill.  Working flat passes, they moved down the field, got a DPI in the end zone and then Lucian Anderson ran it in to make the score 20-6 at the half.  That was huge.

The rest of the game was much more one-sided.  BG only scored once more, but held the ball for 21 minutes of the second half.  Kent ran only 25 plays for 41 yards--10 plays for 3 yards in the 3rd Quarter. The game was never in doubt in the second half, 27-6 final.

Coach said we had some adversity this week.  He chose not to elaborate, but remembering that Monday he talked about dealing with "NIL, portal and redshirts," I think we have an idea of what he was talking about.  As always, I'm just putting things together.

I know this....BG started the game with 3 WRs who have played before.  The pre-game injury list had Garcia, Tillman and Hogan out.  Tillman is no longer listed on the roster.  Then, Johnson was injured during the game.  Anthony Wayne's Winn Sharp was out there, and Jared Merk (RFR) made an incredible catch on an absolute hummer thrown behind him to convert a 3rd and 13 on the late 2nd Quarter TD drive.

Interestingly, Coach said after the game that when it comes to WR, some guys we have who haven't been producing have to start producing.  There aren't many of them, so you can probably ID who he means.

In addition, Darrius Lorfils and Dierre Kelly were on the "out" list this week.

BG rode the backs of their three offensive stars.  Bazelak had a great game.  Some people in our section were heckling him, but he was 23 of 27 for 313 yards.  Two TDs, no INT.  Yes, he had a lot of high-percentage passes, but he was also executing the game plan.

And then there's Harold Fanin Jr.  From a back shoulder fade that had Coach Loeffler dreamy-eyed....to catching a pass against his head and then finishing the run, Fannin does not disappoint.  He was 10 for 171, with 91 after contact.  PFF graded him 96.6 overall.

Stewart also had his first big game in a couple weeks.  He had 25 carries (thank you) for 134, which is a 5.4 average.   Patterson was 6 of 25.  BG ran the ball effectively...as they should have.

On defense, the second half tells the story...when BG figured out how to stop the run and the pass.

Ulatowski dropped back 29 times, and was pressured on 13.  His most common pass play was throwing it away. He was 7 of 27, 78 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT,  The Flashes came in with a full #MACTION tag on offense...we now know something about the  Ball State and EMU defenses.

Those 78 yards would have been like two completions in those previous weeks.  BG held McCray to 21 yards on 3 catches in 8 targets. Floreia was 2 for 35.  Great job by the BG secondary. Oladokun had McCray most of the time and held him to 5 yards total.  Not per catch.

BG got the win they had to have and should have had.  Toledo is next, followed by three winnable games.  More on the MAC race this week, and even acknowledging BG's hit and miss style, there's a very good chance that if BG wins 3 of the next 4 they are playing Miami for a spot in Detroit.

Flash Preview....

 What is their body of work?

Where do you start?  If it wasn't for Akron, this would be the most troubled program in the MAC. In 2012, they had an historic season, ranked #18 at one point.  Since that year, they have had 2 winning seasons, one of them the COVID year. Sean Lewis was 27-34 there.  When he left, they brought in Kenni Burns, a Minnesota RowTheBoat guy. He is 1-17 with 0 FBS wins, in possible running for the Tom Arth Award.

They are 0-6 this year, and played three P4 teams---Pitt, Tennessee, and Penn State....lost that one 56-0. They are 0-2 in MAC play, and both games were pure MACTION, losing to 52-33 to EMU and 37-35 to Ball State.

Through all their issues, Kent won 5-straight against BG (Sean Lewis never lost to the school where he was the OC)...Pelini once. Loeffler the other times. Three of them were ugly.  They put 60 on us twice.  BG broke the streak 49-19 last season.

BG is a 21-point favorite. 

How experienced are they?

Their depth chart is TBA on their game notes.  Phil Steele ranked them #6 in experience in the MAC.

Who are their national leaders?

Crishon McCray is #5 in receiving TDs and #18 in yards per catch.  That's for all games.  In MAC games he has 13 catches for 401 yards (30 yard average) and 5 TDs.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -4, which is rough.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

This is super interesting.  Their #1 and #2 QBs sustained season-ending injuries in the Penn State game.  In comes Tommy Ulatowski, who threw for 284 against BG last year, despite splitting time most of the year with another guy.  Here's the weird part...he has lit a fire under the offense.  His QBR is over 170, leader in MAC GAMES ONLY by a long-shot.  His completion % is only 46%, 4 TD over 2 INT but 748 yards in 33 completions will get it done. At least officially, we do not know who will QB the Falcons.

What is their scoring and yards per play

It's night and day.  They are last in the MAC in scoring overall and #3 in their MAC games. Similarly, they are #2 in YPP over 2 MAC games at 6.9 ypp. (All games from here on in) BG's defense allows 24 points per game, which is 6th.  The Falcons allow 5.7 yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

No. They are second to last in the nation in rushing overall and 10th in MAC play at 2.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.8 per rush, 9th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

See above.  In addition to McCray, they have Luke Floriea as a productive wideout. BG is #6 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They are really committed to the run.  Sack adjusted they have run on 49% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  21% overall and 33% in the MAC.  BG allows 33% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

7 points per trip in MAC play, about 4 overall.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.8 points per trip allowed, #10 in the nation.

Do they protect the QB?

They have been sacked 18 times on 178 sack-adjusted attempts, which is a lot, over 10%.  BG gets sacks on 10% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are last in the nation in total defense and scoring defense and that has not changed in MAC play.  BG scored 24.8 which is #7 and 5.8 yards per play which is #4.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are last in the nation. In MAC games they are 10th. At 4.5 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5.  Even so, our rushing of late has been a disappointment, which Coach attributes to a lack of confidence.

Can they be passed on?

They are #127 of of 133 in team passing efficiency defense. In their MAC games, they are #7.  They have allowed 70% completions on mostly short passes.  BG is #8 in team passing offense, largely due to 6 TDs over 5 INT.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 120th in the nation for all games and 3rd in the MAC in MAC games. At 40%, BG is #4.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They have allowed an unbelievable 35 red zone trips, tied for the most in the country.  They allow 5.6 points per trip.  BG offense scored 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

No, they have sacks on 5.4% of passes, all games. In MAC play, they have only 2 sacks. BG allows sacks on 7.8% of pass attempts, which is creeping up.

Special Teams:

Punting?

At 36 a punt, they are #113.  No blocks, 1 TD.  FWIW, BG is #21 in net punting.

Punt Return?

Three returns, 45 yards.  No TDs, no blocks.

Placekicking? 

Andrew Glass has been their kicker for a while.  All-MAC last year.  He entered the portal on October 2.  His replacement, Will Hryszko is 0-1. That's his only D1 FG attempt.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 24.

Kickoff Return?

No idea

Intangible Miscellany

OK.  Well, this is a should-win and a must-win.  Whether it is a will-win remains to be seen.  You can't be blamed for not trusting this team. A big performance by the Falcons does not mean they are out of the woods...this is the trap we fell into last year.  But there's no path anywhere without a win in this one.  On paper, BG should be able to move the ball against Kent--just as BSU and EMU did--and our defense is playing well, and they are one-dimensional.  We are at home. We should be able to manage this one.

On the other hand, Coach alluded to guys worrying about where they are going to be next year.  Even if Bazelak plays he will probably not be 100%.  Or we have a guy making his first start.  Kent came close to winning last week and has to be very hungry, given they have lost 16 straight FBS games.

Loeffler Presser: Lack of Confidence

Coach had his weekly presser today.

He said that the problem the offensive line is having is that they have lost confidence and they are afraid of making a mistake. He doesn't know how it happened or why, but he says that if we can get that back, things will be fine.  

He went through the "lot of football left to play" stuff. Which there is.  We have met some adversity.  Which doesn't last forever. (As a BG football fan, I'd like to quibble with this...it certainly FEELS like it has).

There was also a lot of talk about the issues facing college football today.  He especially mentioned NIL, portal and red-shirting, which is an odd thing to add.  He says that players get a lot of distractions.  I don't have any idea what's going on but it seems like it might tie into a series of other cryptic statements he has been making.

Or maybe not.

He says he won't know about Bazelak until later in the week.  If Anderson does play, they will have a more personalized game plan for him.  I personally think he would be very effective on RPOs, but who knows.

Jackson Kleather is also day-to-day.

He didn't give a prognosis, but he said that Orth had the same shoulder surgery Loeffler had when he was at Michigan.  In fact, Loeffler had it twice or even possibly more.  He proceeded to give a complete history of players who have had this surgery and whether they ever made it back.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-7)  Lost to Holy Cross

PSU:  (6-0) Beat USC in thriller

TX A&M: (5-1) Idle hands

ODU:  (2-4)  Beat Georgia Southern

Akron:  (1-6) Finally lost to WMU after five hour rain delay.

NIU: (4-2)  Played us

KSU:  (0-6) Furious rally falls 2 points short us Ball State.  Pure MACTION.

UT:  (4-2) Lost to UB

CMU (3-3) Furious rally, lost by 2 to OU.

WMU: (3-3) Beat Akron after 5-hour rain delay

BSU (2-4): Beat Kent 37-35. PURE MACTION.  (In conference play, BSU is scoring 38 a game and allowing 39.

MU:  (2-4) Smoked EMU.

Vs. P4   2-20

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Sadness Accrues

Sadness accrues.

Looking back, you can see the trend.  You lose at home to ODU...nearly lose at Akron...and come in against a team that is a legit title contender and you play similar to how you did against ODU and Akron and it's an extremely disappointing loss.  As our commenters have noted...it was a referendum on the current regime.  As I said, it was the moment of truth.  Mike Jinks ain't walking through that door.  And we saw what we saw.

Coach summed it up after the game.  I thought it was a pretty good presser.  He didn't mention Notre Dame.  He said we got beat up front on offense.  And that was exactly what happened.  This year's offense was supposed to be built on a good QB, a great TE, a great RB, and a competent line.  But without that last one, there's nothing.  Coach said that he would look at his play sheet and see nothing he could call because we couldn't block. Gibby talked about us getting beat up the middle, not even getting a hand on guys.  A missed block on the screen that cost Johnson a key fourth down conversion in NIU territory late in the game. (I went back and watched this play again...with a block, that's probably a touchdown.  And he was definitely short).

For example.  NIU got the ball first and drove for a FG.  BG got the ball and went 75 yards and 5 plays for a TD.  From that point forward, almost a whole game, BG ran 51 plays for 130 yards.  Take out the fake punt, and we ran 50 plays for 107 yards.

Let's take a case in point.  BG is up 7-6 at halftime and gets the ball to start the 3rd. Bazelak was injured in the second quarter and can barely move.  Loeffler says he saw the injury (leg) and said "it wasn't pretty."  Bazelak is a gamer, though, and he wanted to be on the field.

BG commits two penalties, one accepted, and makes 1 yard otherwise and is punting on 4 and 14 when Henderson ran his fake punt for a first down.  BG picks up the pace a little.  From the NIU 19, they run a play to Stewart that is BLOWN UP.  He's fighting with an 8-yard loss and BG catches a huge break when someone grabs his face mask long after the play's result was decided.

BG to the 9.  Patterson runs it to the 2. 

This is a huge opportunity. And what follows is a defining moment of where we are.

This is not all on our players.  Our playcallers...I don't know.  I was hoping last year we'd bring a real OC, but we didn't.  Anyway, we tried Fannin in a wildcat and he got nowhere.  On third down, we dropped the nearly lame Bazelak back to pass, turned a rusher loose in the middle and took a sack.

It's not done.  Jackson Kleather, our first kicker, seriously injured himself when missing a first-half FG. Zach Long comes in.  He makes the FG.  Unfortunately, according to the coach, we had a guy who was a starter who didn't go out to get in the formation for the FG, so they sent another guy out who didn't line up right and we had an illegal formation.  Forced to try the FG again, we missed.  From the 2-yard line, catching two huge breaks, we get no points and a QB who can't move.

Sadness Accrues.

Bazelak came out to start the next series.  Stewart went for 10 but it was called back for an illegal formation.  That was the last we would see of Bazelak. (Coach said we should see him back soon, but it's not clear if that means for next week and we won't know that until Saturday afternoon, probably).

NIU, by the way, played without their starting QB for most of the game.

The defense held NIU well.  The rush defense was effective.  NIU is an RPO team, not really a drop back team.  They scored on the first play of the 4th quarter on a QB run, lined up to go for 2 in a gadget formation that had us looking completely confused and they scored the 2 to make it 14-7.

BG gets the ball back and runs on 3rd and 10, makes 5 yards and has to punt.  They catch another huge break when NIU is calling for leaping.  Then, two plays later, NIU is called for PI. 

From the NIU 40, BG goes incomplete, Stewart gains 8 on the next two plays and its 4th and 2. BG goes to Jamal Johnson...right play call, we miss a downfield block and he is brought down short of the marker.  Was set up for a big play.

NIU then eats almost six minutes up before kicking a FG to make it 17-7 and that's all she wrote.

A few notes.  Anderson had a rough day.  It was a tough assignment.  Coach says they like him in the option, but we were behind.  (Teams do run the option when they are behind, FWIW).  He really struggled.  This was a tough assignment for your first meaningful snaps, and in all fairness, it was going to hell while Bazelak was still in there.  For those of you (you know who you are) who thought Anderson was a miracle in waiting, there you go.  Bazelak is the starter for a reason and it doesn't matter who the QB is if you can't protect him.

Bazelak dropped back 19 times and was pressured six times and sacked 5.  Not one of the pressures was on a blitz.  They were beating us with base.  (Why blitz?).  He was 1 of 6 when pressured.

Stewart had 64 yards on 13 rushes, almost half on one play.  

BG was 9 of 25 rushing between the guards, per PFF. 

As for the line, we know Nick Reimer missed another game.  BG did no rotating.  L-R, it was Pabst, Burns, Padgett, Fatusaki and Wollschlager. Based on PFF, three of these guys graded under 52% on run blocking. On pass blocking, one of them graded 25% and one was 40%, both in the middle of the line, as observed.

BG was 10 of 23 passing for 98 yards.

Fannin touched the ball 5 times.  RJ Garcia was not on the injury list but did not play.

The defense was solid.  NIU had their backup QB in.   Also, Antarrio Brown, their top back, did not play.  Gavin Williams had 102 yards but it took him 29 carries.  Overall, they rushed for 3.3 yards per rush and gained 3.8 per play.  We held them to 6 of 17 on 3rd down and on 3 red zone trips they only had 2 FGs.  

That includes when the offense gave them the ball deep in Falcon territory.  Bazelak was back to pass, Coach said he had a wide-open play, and a NIU DL pushed our left tackle directly into Bazelak's lap, causing a fumble recovery by NIU.

Eventually, the D ran out of gas but they took care of their part of the business.

Mostly, in this regime, it has been the offense that has let the effort down.  Two missed FGs was a killer, for sure.  But you got a fake punt, too and a blocked FG/bad snap.

There's no effective depth at QB--how often has that happened, as we watched Matt McDonald play injured because there was no one else.  After all this, we didn't have a line capable of handing NIU's line.  And we haven't recruited enough WRs, who had 3 catches yesterday.

This is where we are.  Year 6.  Coach's contract has one more year after this year, which really makes this year a decision year.  You either need to extend him or let him go.

Look, the season isn't over.  UB is in a strong position, and UB, OU and WMU all have 0 losses.  Six teams are 1-1 in the MAC. But this isn't last year, where the second half of our schedule was a joke. And the trend of the last 3 games would have to reverse itself, starting with next week.

At 2-4, the far more likely scenario is that we lose 3 more times and are not even bowl eligible.  With a team with 32 seniors.  (Remember:  we need to get OLD). 

Sadness accrues.

Moment of Truth Preview

What is their body of work?

So NIU has been one of the dominant programs in the MAC.   They had a dominant period in the 10's, landing in the Orange Bowl and playing BG in 3 straight MAC Championship games, winning once.  They were also ranked when they played at BG for Gameday.

They are #2 in the MAC in wins since 2010. They lead the MAC in Championship game appearances and titles since 1997.

They went 0-for-COVID like BG did, had a good year the next year and fell back to earth the year after that.  They were 7-6/5-3 last year, as BG was.  

This season, they were picked in a tie for third with....Bowling Green.

They put themselves on immortal ground by winning at Notre Dame...following which they lost to UB and NC State and entered the 4th Quarter tied with UMass.

They host UT next week.

They were 12-point favorites over UB, FWIW.

BG is a 3-point favorite.  The Falcons have never lost to a G5 team that beat ND in the same season.

How experienced are they?

They have 33 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is experienced.

Who are their national leaders?

Cade Haberman has blocked 2 kicks, to lead the country.

Naveah Sanders is #14 in sacks.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -5, which is rough.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Ethan Hampton is good.  His efficiency is #4 in the MAC.  He completes 58%, has 8 TD over 4 INT and 13 yards a completion, which is really good.  NIU's traditional attack has been strong running, mobile QB and go over the top.  PFF ranks him as the top running QB in the MAC as well.  Bazelak is #5 in the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 28 per game, which is #73 in the nation.  They average 5.98 yards per play, which is 52nd. BG's defense allows 25 points per game, which is 82nd.  The Falcons allow 6.09 yards per play, which is 89th.

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  Their per game totals are #10 in the nation.  On a per rush average, they are 39th at 5.11 yards per carry.  Their top back, Antario Brown, was injured as UMass and his status will be known at gametime, but they have depth at RB and ran effectively after he left the game last week. BG allows 5.28 per rush.

Do they pass the ball?

As seen above, they are effective.  BG is #93 in pass defense efficiency, allowing almost exactly what NIU is getting.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 60% of their plays sack-adjusted.  That's a lot.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Yes, at 51% which is #14 in the country.  Run-first teams tend to be really strong on 3rd down.  BG allows 33% which is #28 in the nation.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.3 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed.

Do they protect the QB?

They do.  They allow sacks on 3.7% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 10% of passing attempts.

A couple other notes.  They keep the ball.  They are #10 in TOP.  They are 5 of 7 on 4th down.  Those 3rd down plays are going to be critical.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They allow 19 a game, which is #1 in the MAC.  They allow 4.64 yard per play, which is 18th.  The gap is due to turnover differential, I would suspect.  BG scored 28.4 which is #72 and 6.2 yards per play which is #67.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They allow 3.04 yards per carry, which is #18. At 4.8 yards per carry, BG's offense is #62.

Can they be passed on?

They are #46 in team passing efficiency defense. BG is #67 in team passing offense.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They surely do.  They are #2 in the country at 23% allowed. At 46%, BG is #34.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are very good.  4.3 points per trip--only allowed ten all year.  BG offense scored 4.9 per trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they get sacks on 9.2% of pass attempts.  BG allows sacks on only 4.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

At 35 a punt, they are #125.  No blocks, no TDs.  Hampton has pooched three times.

Punt Return?

Six returns, long of 10.

Placekicking? 

He's 6 of 9.  Blocked twice.  Long of 50.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 27, which is not good.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27, which is good.

Intangible Miscellany

My expectation is that the team that likes to play in big games will show up.  We are hoping for a good crowd.  BG is going to need to play at a high level.  BG has to keep the game close so they don't get one-dimensional.  And the Falcons need to re-discover the ability to run the ball.  NIU is certainly not unbeatable, as time has shown.  A win here is huge.  A loss puts us way behind the 8 ball.

Loeffler Presser

Quick note on the Loeffler presser...he says Terion Stewart will play Saturday.  He said he "wished he had played last week."  Combined with his comments after the game about Terion being the kind of player who needed to practice to play...it all seems designed to send some kind of message.  Perhaps I am wrong...

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-6)  Lost to Lafayette

PSU:  (5-0) Beat UCLA

TX A&M: (5-1) Smoked #9 Missouri.  Starting QB is back, they are red hot.

ODU:  (1-4)  Lost to Coastal Carolina

Akron:  (1-5) Played us

NIU: (3-2)  Beat UMass

KSU:  (0-5) Idle

UT:  (4-1) Beat Miami

CMU (3-2) Idle

WMU: (2-3) Beat Ball State. PURE MACTION

BSU (1-4): Lost to WMU.  PURE MACTION.

MU:  (1-4) Lost to UT

Vs. P4   2-20

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Falcons Escape from Akron

OK, the sun came up.  BG had a tough game against Akron....certainly tougher than many people anticipated.  We expected an angry team raging at their performance against ODU and playing the way we envision we can play...can't we get the Texas A&M team against Akron?

Odd note...do you think maybe Penn State and A&M were looking at the logo?

Anyway, perhaps that was unrealistic.  It clearly did not happen.  Let's at least acknowledge this...the first step to getting to Ford Field is not to lose your way out of the race.  It's a little like the Big Dance...not single elimination, but there is a win-and-advance kind of feeling.

So, we gutted out a win we had to have.  And that's worth something.  As Urban says, "we will never apologize for winning."  More later, but we have a guy who wins games on his own and we had enough to get the job done with the opposition in the red zone at the end of the game.  We will take it and go on to next week.

As we do that, though, it's important that we don't take the wrong lesson from winning.  John Wooden talked about the difference between winning and succeeding.

Consider this.

If the ODU QB trips over the 15-yard line as he is running for that big play, we are talking about grit and closing the door.

If the Akron TE catches that 3rd down pass where he was open and the ball was in the right place AND IT BOUNCES OFF HIS HEAD...and we're talking about looking at logos.

I think Coach knows this.  He identified three of the five things I think we need to do to improve.  You have the opportunity to get better after winning.

Unless your players and coaches take the wrong lesson from winning.

See what I mean?

Coach mentioned a few things we need to sharpen up. First and foremost in the running game.  It isn't getting it done and anyone can see that.  Not having Stewart is a problem...sure...but he didn't have any room to run against ODU when he was in there.  We are not getting the run blocking we need.

PFF has us #10 in run blocking.  Reimer doesn't help but it's not the only problem. We just are not blocking effectively.  I feel like you can see it...there isn't a lot of room to run.  Our top blocking lineman is #22 in the MAC, by PFF grade.

We had 154 yards gained rushing.  81 of them came from Fannin, Anderson, Smith and Pegeus.  The backs had 70 on 21 carries.

It's not all the players...we ran 16 plays between the tackles.  7 of them were middle left (left of center, right of guard) for 2.9 yards per carry.  We were over 5 to the left.

Coach said that he thought Stewart felt pretty good by game time but hadn't practiced all week and "he's the kind of player that needs to practice to be effective."  Take that for what you will and let's hope he's back for NIU--but that's only part of the issue.

The second thing was special teams.

BG has had really good special teams...best in the MAC, in fact.  But a critical mistake cost BG 7 points, without which the game is over before the final drive.

Pegues let the ball hit on the 15.  It was rolling pretty fast and probably headed for the end zone.  He decided to try and field it....it glanced off his hand into the end zone where Akron recovered for a TD.  It wasn't the first time this has happened....he's had some nice returns but something similar happened in the Fordham game and I felt like he let a punt hit earlier in this game that he could have caught and saved yardage.

Obviously, that's how a winning effort becomes a losing effort. 

Coach also said that BG needs to keep the QB in the pocket.  I feel like this has been our kryptonite since time immemorial.  I recognize that mobile QBs are a problem for everyone, but this seems to be ridiculous.  Part of it is off the pass rush, but we were gashed on the option plays by the QB as well.  I cannot imagine why there isn't a priority for us.  Especially as it cost us the ODU game and nearly cost us this one.

NIU QB Ethan Hampton is ranked as the top scrambling QB in the MAC...for example.

Now, a couple the coach didn't mention.

We are historically weak at WR.  We have recruited plenty of WRs during the Loeffler era, and had precious little success.  RJ Garcia is due back and that will certainly make a difference.  Our top pure WR is #12 in the MAC.  Of course, Fannin is probably the top overall receiver...and Jamal Johnson is top ten in receiving RBs.  But when you see Akron drop 8 and give Bazelak all day to throw, it's because our WRs don't get open even with that kind of time.

Last thing...last year, BG manufactured its big run on turnovers.  For all the talk of prioritizing getting the ball back we heard last year, BG is #131 in forcing turnovers this season.  We have 2.  Without turnovers, you play with a far thinner margin of error.

In many ways, Fannin won this game almost single-handedly.  He had a 63-yard catch that led to a TD, converted a 3rd and 2 on an end around that led to a FG, and scored the decisive touchdown on a critical 4th and 2 play.  Coach says that was a check at the line by Bazelak, which is interesting.

If football comes down to a couple plays, that was one of them.

Special teams, absent the Pegues mistake, was pretty good.  Akron's punter had a career day.  BG made two FG, including from 45, and had a strong punting game, We gave up literally zero return yards and had one decent KO return.

So, BG picked up an ugly win.  It's hard to imagine it happening 7 more times like that, but who knows?

Post-Wake-Up Call Preview

  What is their body of work?

Akron, considering that it resides in a football hotbed, has long struggled in MAC football.  In the 6 years since Terry Bowden left, they are 8-51.  Two of those eight have been against Bowling Green.  They have a legit coach who has been successful everywhere, which is the same thing they used to say about Terry Bowden.

Phil Steele picked them #10, tied with Kent and UB. This year, they are 1-4.  They beat Colgate, but lost 3 P4 games (Rutgers, South Carolina and OSU) and lost @OU last week.  They led that one at halftime, were one score away in the 4th quarter but lost 31-10.

Having said that, if BG watches the logo again (or whatever), I suspect Akron is very hungry to experience some success and on homecoming, as well.

BG is a 16.5 point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 24 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is young.

Who are their national leaders?

Avery Brock is #6 in punting.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -3.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

The QB is Ben Finley, who started at NC State, then went to Cal and then came this year to the Zips.  He made 4 starts prior to arriving in Rubbertown.  He is struggling.  His passing efficiency is #9 in the MAC. He completes 58% of his passes and has 7 TDs with 6 INT and only 9.6 per completion.  He has a long run of 16.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are scoring 14 PPG, which is #130 in the country, out of 133. They average 4 yards per play, which is also #130.

Can they run the ball?

No, they are #132, at 2 yards per carry.  It isn't quite that bad.  Jordon Simmons is their lead back.  He's an MSU transfer at 5.2 per carry.  After him, it's a struggle.

Do they pass the ball?

No, they are really struggling.  They are missing Alex Adams, who was All-MAC a couple years ago and has been injured this year and didn't sound like he was playing based on the Akron presser this week.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on only 38% of their plays sack-adjusted.  That's low.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

No.  They convert 29% which is #120.

Do they score in Red Zone?

Very poor at 3.8 points per trip.

Do they protect the QB?

Oh man.  They have been sacked 15 times, but given the high volume of passes, that's only 5%.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are allowing 40 a game, which is #130.  They allow 6.3 yards per play, which is #116.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are #112 in yards per carry allowed. 

Can they be passed on?

They are not good.  They are #124 in team pass efficiency defense.  They allow 62% completions, 12 TD and 2 INT and 13.4 per catch.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are not bad, at #109.

Do they defend in the red zone?

Never saw this before.  18 opponent red zone trips...18 opponent TDs.

Do they pressure the QB?

They get sacks of 5.1% of pass attempts, which is decent.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Their punter has good yardage, but they have allowed 145 return yards (128th) and 2 TDs.  Their punter is #8, their ranking on net punting is 29th.

Punt Return?

They average 2 yards a return with no blocks.

Placekicking? 

He's good.  5 of 6,  4 of 5 over 40 and 49 is a long for the year.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25, which is typical.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 24, which is typical.

Intangible Miscellany

We heard a lot about a wake up call.  We will find out if BG answered the phone or let it go to voicemail.

BG Gets Football Commit

Committed let’s work!! @BG_Football 🔥 pic.twitter.com/6Ks7LtrSXi

— Jahvionjarmon (@JJarmon13) October 1, 2024

This young man Jahvion Jarmon from Taft HS in Cincinnati. He's a multi-position athlete that appears to project as a D-back.  He has also played WR and he returns kicks.

Did I mention that he returns kicks?  He has returned 8 kicks or punts this season....and he has scored twice.

He also has 2 TDs on 6 receptions.

He's got some speed....he ran a 10.9 100 yd...10.88 was 8th in MAC this year,

He also has an INT.

He's a 3-star with offers from UMass, Miami, Akron and Temple and a couple FCS schools.

Welcome to the Falcons, Jahvion.