Monday, May 17, 2004

Moving in the Right Direction....

But not as quickly as it looks.

To nearly everyone's amazement, the Reds are 20-17 so far this year. Projected out, this would mean an 88 win season, which would exceed nearly everyone's goals.

I don't think that's how it will turn out, but time will tell.

Here's why.

The enquirer this weekend looked at where the Reds stand in the NL standings in key measures. The results show the Reds in the bottom half of the league. Looked at another way, the Reds Pythagorean would project them to be 17-20--not 20-17 at this date.

The meaning of these numbers are clear. At this rate, these results are going to catch up to the club. You can't keep giving up more runs than you score and win games. Sounds dopey, but you could find an argument on the topic.

Today, a .500 season would still be an achievement.

Things are moving in the right direction, however.

Looking at key stats (mostly pitching), the Reds are moving where they should be, although they remain below the NL average in each of the following categories. See below.

BB/9 (2003--3.67 2004--3.08 NL Avg--3.42)
K/9 (2003--5.80 2004--6.06 NL Avg--6.54)
H/9 (2003--9.82 2004--9.72 NL Avg--8.96)
ERA (2003--5.09 2004--4.67 NL Avg--4.27)
K/bb (2003--1.58 2004--1.96 NL Avg--1.91)
hr/9 (2003--1.30 2004--1.19 NL Avg--1.07)
e/game (2003--0.87 2004--0.73)

So, bottom line. We can't expect to win unless these numbers improve, but things are moving in the right direction, and there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. Its more fun to watch than last year.....

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