The Falcon MBB team has won three straight for the first time this season. And 6 of 8. After a long prelude, this team is officially fun again. Coach said after the game that we are on our fifth identity this year, but right now we seem really comfortable in a confounding zone defense, not fouling and letting Javonte Campbell make things happen.
Here's how things stand. This list starts at #6. BG and BSU are tied for the last spot. We need to beat two of the teams on this list. We can't make it with a win Tuesday....it's going to take at least until the finale.
Tie breakers are wonky, especially as you think about multiple teams. If BG tied BSU right now, the Cards would take the spot. The season series is even, so you start working down the standings....both teams are winless vs. Akron, Miami and OU. KSU is in 4th and Ball State beat Kent whereas BG did not. There's a lot that could happen....UT could finish third (although it appears BG broke them) and that would favor the Falcons. Ball State also plays Miami and a win there would lock that two-way tiebreaker up.
I can't see a scenario where we win both and don't make it. In fact, you could argue that if we both, we have a great shot at finishing 6th at 9-9.
We could make it with 8 wins. Let's say we lose to WMU, but end up tied at 8-10 with Ball State, EMU and Ball State...we would take that tie breaker. However, if the tie at 8-10 is only BG and Ball State, as noted above, we would be out. We would also lose the head to head to EMU because they beat Miami.
FWIW, I asked ChatGPT to list all the possible permutations and it has not been able to do it. There may be a hole in the ozone layer named for me.
Let's win both. It's the most likely outcome. I do worry about our guys running out of gas-- but, Laissez les Bons Temps Rouler.
The first half felt a lot like the first game. BG was down 14-7 9 minutes in....yes, that's a basketball score. The game was competitive for the rest of the half, with a small BG surge leaving them ahead by 1 at the break, 25-24.
The second half was much improved. A Butler transition 3FG 2 minutes in put BG up 4 and BG never trailed again. With about 14 to play they were up 10--a 4-minute 12-2 run in total. Much like teams have done to us, BG was able to repel runs. BS got it to 3, Campbell scores on the next possession. They get it to 2, Felt on the boards and follows up with a tip in.
At that point, it was 47-43 with 8 to play. BG went on a four-minute 10-2 run to make the lead 12 with 4:02 to play. At that point, it's a 99% chance to win and it never got closer than 9, the final differential.
Solid win. Not a clinging on for dear life win. Love to see it.
Here is the difference....first the BG offense comparing game 1 and game 2. Essentially no difference.
Game |
BG Offense |
EFG |
2FG |
3FG |
Game 1 |
94.2 |
47% |
49% |
30% |
Game 2 |
95.3 |
46% |
49% |
26% |
And here is the BS offense for the two games...BG simply played much better defense while playing essentially the same offense that got their butt kicked. You will rarely lose with these kind of numbers.
Game |
BSU Off |
EFG |
2FG |
3FG |
Game 1 |
1.24 |
65% |
67% |
41% |
Game 2 |
0.81 |
39% |
39% |
26% |
So here are the four factors for the game. BG combined better shooting with fewer turnovers, a wash in rebounding and better FT shooting.
Which brings up a point. I noted that Ball State was #2 in the nation at getting to the FT line. BG allowed them 7 FTs, tied for the lowest free throw rate of the season for them. As Coach pointed out to the team in the locker room, it's the second straight game under 10 FTs for our opponents. It's really important...we absolutely cannot play with this depth level if we foul.
Individually, Coach made a point of noting to the team that Jehmari Hill, the #6 scorer in the MAC, scored nothing in the game...0-8 shooting. And Brittain-Watts also drew a blank. Sparks had 14 but it took him 10 shots.
For BG, Javonte Campbell had 26 points, 9 of 15 and 1 of 3, 5 of 5 at the line, 3 assists, 3 steals and 1 turnover, if that might work for you. And +13.
He has been over 20 points in his last five games. He has made over 50% from 2FG in all of them, despite the fact that teams don't expect him to make 3s. I don't know what it takes to be MAC player of the week, but who cares. He is carrying the team on his back.
Johnson scored BG's first 7 and then ended up with 15. That's 3 of 5 and 3 of 5, and 8 rebounds.
Felt had 8, making all 4 of his shots, plus 9 rebounds and +16. Exacte also had 9 rebounds and Braelon Green was +12.
In fact, this is really interesting...BG's top 3 lineups in terms of minutes all had negative differentials.
BG was +14 on lineups that played 2:45, 1:22 and 1:02, respectively. Campbell, Greene and Felt were the only players in all 3 units.
So on we go. NIU is something to be nervous about. They have been clinging to victory and they are still playing hard. BG would expect to win the game, but if they come in feeling that way, NIU can beat them.