Zips MBB Rolls Into Stroh Center

 And here we go.  MAC season starts tomorrow, Falcons and the Zips on national television. 

I looked yesterday at the pre-MAC schedule for both teams.  Neither one had much to talk about...UA has lost 3 of their last 4, @Milwaukee (135), Yale (n)(87), and @Princeton (110) with a neutral floor win over Jackson State (289).  They are the defending champs and one of the four teams that always seem to be in the mix.  They were picked #2 by Blue Ribbon this year.

Josiah Harris started six early games this year, was injured and has not played since.  No idea what to expect from him.

BG continues to battle injury issues.  Green, Towns, Youssef and Humphries are all injured and BG will likely be without the latter 3 for this one. 

No team in our program's history has owned us like Akron does.  SINCE 2005,  Akron is 35-5 against BG, including the last 5.  BG last beat them in 2021 at the JAR and the last time at home was in 2020 by 18, their last win of that ill-fated season.

Thankfully, we don't play them again this year.

UA plays fast at 72 possessions, and BG plays at 71, so the game should be moving.  The NCAA average is 1.06 points per possession, with the Zips scoring 1.06 and allowing 1.05.  BG scores 1.05 but allows 1.12, the #286 defense in D1, and the key point for this game.

UA is built on the 3FG.  They try 46% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is top-50 in the nation. They make 35% which is good but not incredible.  They make only 47% from 2FG and overall are a sub-par shooting team.  They take average care of the ball, but create some extra possessions on the offensive boards.  They don't get to the line--which is typical of 3FG shooting team--although they make 72% of their FTs.

For its part, BG does not defend either shot type very well, doesn't force a lot of turnovers, is poor on the defensive boards gives up an average free throw rate.  BG's ability to force missed shots and get the rebound will determine if they have a shot in this one.

Looking at things the other way, the biggest UA strength is forcing turnovers, which they are #69 in the nation at. They don't defend the 2FG or the 3FG very well, are not great on the defensive boards and give up a normal amount of free throws. BG is actually a decent shooting team and does a good job taking care of the ball, so if they can put those together, they have a shot to be competitive on this end of the floor.

Akron plays an incredibly large rotation. They are #22 in the nation in bench minutes. They have 9 players averaging 17 minutes a game or more and 11 averaging 10 minutes or more.  Their most used player plays 28 minutes a game.

That means that even with their fast pace, they don't have people putting up big numbers.  Tavari Johnson is their leading offensive player, scoring 12.8 per game. He shoots 40% from 2 FG, which is poor, but 41% from 3FG, which is really good.  He also has 3.3 assists per game.

Nate Johnson is scoring 11.9 PPG and 3.5 assists per game. He shoots 46% from 2FG and 28% from 3FG.

The leading rebounders are James Okonkwo, 8.5 RPG and over 3 on the offensive boards, and Isaiah Grey with 5.5 RPG.  Gray transferred from Cornell and Okonkwo from WVU.  In total, UA has three former Mountaineers.

Also, Marcus Johnson is from Akron.

So the MAC season begins.  BG is being given a less than 40% chance of winning.  This is a coaching challenge for our guys to come up with a game plan that takes the guys we have to work with and get a home win to start the season,  Maybe we have used the break to tune up our zone, which can throw teams off.

Rough Start for MAC MBB

The MAC has had a really poor pre-season in MBB.  This is all based on kenpom.  A couple of quirks.  It counts only D1 games....so while CMU has played the 7th toughest schedule in the country in their D1 games, they have also played a MAC-High 4 non-D1 games.  Similarly, Kent was losing to Heidelberg into the last minute the other day, but it would not have impacted these rankings.   There are 364 teams in these rankings.

So, some observations:

• 7 of the 12 teams have a worse kenpom than when the season started. 
• The best non-conference win was George Mason (87) losing to CMU.
• The next best win was Miami over App State (172)
• Nine of the 12 teams in the MAC have their best win over a team in the bottom half of D1.
• Five of the 12 MAC teams have lost to teams over 300.
• These ratings are likely to fall, given the number of games against teams in the lower half of the rankings...right now 8 of the 12 teams are ranked above 200.
• The MAC has fallen from the #20 conference to #22 this year.
• BG has the worst loss overall, to #349 Bellarmine. It is their only D1 win and BG played the game fully healthy.

Team	D1 Record	Strength of Schedule	Starting Kenpom	1/1 Kenpom	Difference	Best Win	Worst Loss
Kent	6-3	202	136	116	+20	@Cleveland State (198)	(n) UC Irvine (70)
Akron	5-4	164	130	136	-6	Lamar (189)	@Milwaukee (136)
OU	5-6	240	157	162	-5	UNC-Asheville (173)	@Marshall (200)
Miami	6-4	287	212	185	+27	@App State (172)	@Vermont (243)
Toledo	5-6	89	177	217	-40	Wright State (191)	Oakland (210) by 33 at home
CMU	2-6	7	271	215	+66	George Mason (87)	Stony Brook (319)
Ball State	3-6	336	243	261	-18	Eastern Kentucky (208)	Detroit (317)
BG	3-7	319	264	283	-19	(n) New Mexico State (199)	@Bellarmine (349, by 12)
WMU	2-9	100	310	277	+33	@Youngstown State (204)	@Coastal Carolina (275)
EMU	5-6	250	293	315	-22	Wright State (190)	Detroit Mercy (319)
UB	3-7	93	348	332	+16	NC A&T (307)	Vermont (243)
NIU	1-8	113	318	350	-32	Monmouth (274)	Eastern Illinois (325)

Happy New Year Falcon Nation