MBB Route to Cleveland

 With four to play, let's take a look at BG's route to getting to Cleveland.  Preview is that it's probably less than 50%, but it is possible.

OK, here is what this is.  The top team in this set would be 6th.  The bottom would be 10th.

The first numbers are the current records and the next are the remaining games.  Orange highlights are what kenpom is predicting for the game (as a starting point).

Kenpom has a lot of love for CMU due to their wins @South Alabama and @George Mason.  Right now, they are ranked #176, which is roughly were OU is ranked.  I think it's safe to say that isn't reflecting the reality on the floor.

Kenpom has CMU going 4-0.  They do have a relatively easy schedule--they play UB and NIU--but they also have @EMU and @BS, and I think it's likely they get 0 or 1 win in that set.

So, the columns after that are:

• If CMU wins all 4 going home.
• If they lose BOTH EM and BS
• If they beat EM and lose to BS
• If they lose to EMU and beat BS

So, look.  Inside all the possibilities, the hardest thing is going to be for BG to go 3-1.  Yes, we rallied the troops Friday at Savage, but how long can this undermanned team continue to do that?  Who knows?  But 3-1 coming home would be a hell of an accomplishment.

Let's say we do it.  Let's say it plays out this way...

At 8-10, BG would be in under 3 of the four scenarios.  The four-way tie in the "CMU>EMU) scenario is not good for BG, who would have only 1 win in that tiebreaker set.  But 8-10 gives us a pretty good shot.

I checked at 7-11.  I'm not saying its impossible, but it's a lot harder to see, especially since it probably means a loss to BSU or WMU, who are in the group looking for these last two slots.

So, there is a shot.  It's not gong to be easy, but it also is still in play.