Permutations for BG

So here is where we stand.

First, for the regular-season title.  Obviously, we play each other Tuesday.  If Akron wins, they take a one-game lead plus the tie-breaker with 3 to play and would have a pretty good lock on it.  If BG wins, they'd lead by 1 but the tie breaker would be even.  They'd need to match Akron over the last 3 games to get the regular season title outright.  If the teams end up tied after a BG win, the next tie-breaker is to compare records against other conference teams, starting (in this case, probably) with the #3 team.  Again, it can't be determined for sure, but Akron's loss to UB means this tiebreaker tends to BG's way...unless BG loses to UB which they would almost have to to even have the conversation.

You see what I mean.

Also, just to clarify my last post, the regular-season title is a huge accomplishment.  It's a better test than the tournament title.  I said it was meaningless, which I guess it is not.  You do get an NIT bid if you lose the tournament, but frankly we're going to get sent down to play Alabama or something on the road and normally we don't go too far.  And, no one...no one...wants to be in the NIT.  But winning the regular season would be an accomplishment I would happily celebrate.

So, for the bye.  BG needs to eliminate 8 teams.  They have essentially eliminated six.  We have five eliminated by record right now....everyone you see from OU down.

Also, Ball State and CMU play.  The loser of that game is eliminated...Ball State with a 7th loss and a BG tie breaker and CMU by an eighth loss.

Two more have to go.

If BG lost out and Kent won out, they would have the tie-breaker and be ahead of us.  So one BG win or Kent loss and that's one.  And they play, which could decide it right there.

The winner of CMU or Ball State would also have to win out.  For Ball State that would mean winning @UT and @NIU and for CMU it would mean winning five straight (Ball State and FOUR others) to get it.  A BG or a Ball State or CMU loss would be 2.

The upshot is one more win gives BG a bye.  Even no more wins probably ends up with a bye, but one more win would lock it down.