MBB MAC Scenarios

So, with the bye, a chance to look in on where things stand right now.

Here's the chart the MAC puts out...you remember when I did these first, right?  Me too.  Love they are doing it, mostly because the tiebreakers can give you a headache.

So, first, the primary concern here is to get one of the 4 byes.  We can talk about winning it all, but it gets you nothing and really, once you're in Cleveland you have to win three games.  The seed doesn't matter except for matchups and you might get a better match up for your team  in the 2 seed than the 1 seed.

If BG wins out, they win the whole enchilada.  That's a big accomplishment, it just doesn't mean anything.  If they don't win out, it depends on how Akron does and of course there is that head-to-head game.

Now, BG has eliminated 5 teams already.  They have to eliminate 8. (Well, OU could technically knot the tie-breaker Saturday.)  BG does have home court sewn up.

If BG wins 4...they would clinch a bye and could not finish below the #2 seed.

If BG wins 3....that's 13-5.  That puts them over NIU and Ball State, who the Falcons have tie-breakers over (2).    Leaving only Kent, UB and CMU who can end 13-5.  Only two of them can do it because Kent and UB play (3).  And BG plays both Kent and UB.  And that's only if they win out...Kent still has to play @EMU (don't laugh) and @AK.  And UB has Ball State and Akron, though at home.  CMU has the tie-breaker over BG, but would need to win seven. due to the coronavirus-game.  In short, at 13-5, BG is virtually assured a bye.

No, what if BG wins 2?  And let's assume they are the least tie-breaking friendly OU and Miami wins.

12-6 was good enough last year.  Probably would be again.  NIU and Ball State play each other and one will end up with a 6th loss (1).  You'd need one additional loss from the winner of that game (2), and then two of the following three teams to lose twice: UB, KSU and CMU.  And UB and KSU play each other, the loser would need to win out beyond that.  And CMU has 2 extra games.

At 12-6 BG is in very solid shape for a bye.  It would take a lot.

At 11-7...yeah, that's a different story.  If BG wins just one out of 5 going home, the answer is in the wind.

I don't think that's going to happen.  Honestly, I don't think there are any unwinnable games left.  Yeah, we didn't go fantastic against Akron and Kent, but I don't think either of them has shown themselves to be unbeatable.  Last year we limped a little to Cleveland and I am hoping we don't this year.

But, to be clear.  The purpose of the regular season to finish 1-4.  And we're in excellent position and in control of whether we make it.  We need no help at all and we don't even need to win out.  Win and advance.