Miami Redux

BG is back at it, a top-finish assured and looking for more.  They will play Miami, on paper the easiest game on their remaining schedule, but then again, it is the MAC and it is on the road and nothing is for sure.  Miami is only 4-11 in MAC play.  However, a couple weeks ago they beat NIU without Silende and Brown and this week they beat CMU without Brown for the first half.  Both games were at Millett.

And there's the first game between the two teams.  BG was down 14 and possibly looking like dropping their first two, both at home.   In a pattern that would become familiar, the Falcons rallied and won a squeaker.  BG was up 1 very late but Miami had the ball.  BG got a blocked shot and Frye hit 2FTs to make it a 3 point lead with :04 to play.  Miami went for a hand-off screen and Fields had it covered but he got caught in the wash and fouled the 3-shooter at the buzzer.  Thankfully, Miami's player only made one of the 3 FTs and BG got the board to close the game off.

Dalonte Brown scored 20 for Miami in the game.  He has been injured but returned for the second half of their last game.  He would win the Naismith Trophy if he only played against BG.

So, here is how it shakes out.  First, pace will be critical.  They play the 10th fastest pace in the MAC and BG plays the 3rd fastest.  In the past, BG has tended to settle in at the slower team's pace.  If BG can get stops, they can push the pace to their advantage.

MU is 9th in the MAC in offense and 11th in defense...the numbers of a 4-11 team. A note here...BG is playing very good defense of late, holding each of its last 3 opponents under .96 points per possession...and those were teams that can score.

Miami is the 8th best shooting team in the MAC, and completely reliant on the 3FG.  They are 2nd in 3FG shooting and 12th in 2FG shooting.  They try 40% of their FGs from 3...which is 5th in the MAC.  BG certainly got a ton of missed 3FGs from Akron and would hope to build on that.  They are good at taking care of the ball--and BG forces very few turnovers, so that's not likely to be a factor.  MU doesn't offensive rebound and BG is a good defensive rebounding team.  They are 9th getting to the line and 11th in making FTs.  BG does allow some FTs, but let's hope with MU's poor 2fG shooting that the Falcons don't get drawn into too many fouls.

Turning things around, Miami is 11th in defending the shot.  That's 11th against the 3FG and 12th against the 2FG.  They also foul a lot--sometimes teams can manufacture a lower opponent shooting% by fouling guys taking a good attempt, but that's not the case here.  They are 6th at forcing turnovers and 7th at defensive rebounding.  One note here...BG has been excellent with the ball all year, but have allowed 17% turnovers in each of their last 4 games.  That's still good--the national average is 19%--but it puts additional pressure on BG to make shots.

So, individually, Miami has 2 double-figure scorers.  Nike Sibandie is scoring 12.5 PPG.  He is shooting 41% overall and 31% on 3FG, so it isn't efficient.  He also has a 1:2 A/TO ratio, but leads the team with 5.9 RPG.  Dae Dae Grant is scoring 10.1 ppg on 35% shooting overall and 36% from 3FG.  Isaiah Coleman-Lands comes off the bench and shoots 42% from 3FG.  Brown, mentioned above, is scoring 8 ppg and shooting 36%...he's having a tough year.  In the 10 games since he hung 20 on BG, he has been in single digits for 8 of them and that includes the last 5.

It is disorienting with Miami having this long dry spell in MAC play.  When I was young, they were the league's most consistently excellent team.  The last years of the Evil Genius left them in a hole, but they continue to struggle. 

Anyway, this is a game BG should win, especially as well as they have played on the road.  The biggest challenge is playing hard with the game having slightly less meaning.  Still, you'd like to see us respond with renewed confidence after the Akron game and put this one away.