Friday, September 23, 2011

25 Questions about Red Hawks

The view from our seats when last we "saw" Miami.


Is there such a thing as a Red Hawk.

Not really.  There are Red-backed Hawks, Red-shouldered Hawks and Red-tailed Hawks and a Red Hawk Cheese and a Red Hawk Sioux Indian Chief, but no. There is not.



What is their body of work?

Well, they are 0-2, but that surely is not the whole story.  They have played both games on the road against BCS teams.  They played Missouri tough, losing 17-6 after entering the fourth down 4, and then lost to Minnesota 29-23 when a pass into the end zone on the last play of the game was knocked away.  Of course, two years ago they were among the worst teams in the country, and then next year rallied to win the MAC title from next to nowhere.  Their coach left (long story :)) and now they have Don Treadwell down from MSU.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

19, which is relatively low.  They list 3 true freshman as starting, however, don't know how many teams won their conference title and did that the next year.

Who are their statistical leaders returning?


They have no ranked players nationally.

In the MAC
Dysert is 3rd in total offense.
Chris Givens is 3rd in receptions and 4th in receiving yards.
Dawan Scott is 4th in kickoff returns.

What is their turnover ratio?

Miami is -2 so far.  They have forced only 1 turnover in two games.

Offense:

How is their QB Play?

Zac Dysert is a good QB.  When Schilz was struggling last year, I used Dysert as a model of someone who could really struggle in his first year and then be really good his second year.  He was 4th in MAC last year in passing efficiency as a sophomore (13/12 TD/INT ratio hindered him) and he stands to just get better.  While mostly a passer, he has taken off and run a couple of times.  Two facts.  First, he injured his spleen last year at the Doyt and did not play again that year, and second, he went to the same HS as R-FR WR Heath Jackson.

What is their scoring and yards per play?

They are scoring 14.5 points per game, which is not good.  They also have 4.7 yards per play, also not good.  They did move the ball much better against Minnesota than they did against Missouri.

Can they run the ball?

This has been their achilles heel for some time.  They average 2.7 yards per rush and are currently 108th in the nation in rushing yards per game.  Still, the same situation was more or less in effect last year, and they rush for over 150 yards on 37 attempts for a 4.2 average, so an early test for BG is whether the revamped d-line can keep this team from looking like the SMU Mustangs in the James/Dickerson era.

Do they pass the ball?

This is certainly the more effective part of their game.  On the other hand, they are only ninth in the MAC in pass efficiency---of course, that includes some tough games and both on the road.   They have 62% completions but only 2 TDs over 2 INTs and only 9.7 yards per catch.  It will be interesting to see how the do once they get into MAC play.  Harwell did not play in the first game, so they had all their weapons for only one of their two games.

How is their run/pass balance?

They are very pass heavy, running only on 37% of their offensive plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are converting 44% which is pretty good.

Do they score in the red zone?

They have 6 trips in two games, which is slightly below average, as is their 4 points per trip.

Do they protect the quarterback?

It has been good, allowing sacks on 4.3% of their passing plays.

Defense:


This is supposed to be this team's calling card.  They held Missouri to 17, and Missouri then went out to AZ State and hung 37 (overtime) on the Sun Devils.  Coach Clawson feels this might be the best defense the Falcons will play.  Now, we've played Missouri out there early too, and they never want to seem to show much.  Still, defense is supposed to be a strength.

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They have given up 23 points a game but 5.3 yards per play, both of which are OK numbers.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are allowing 4.7 yards per rush which is just OK.

Could they be passed on?

They are in the middle of the pack in pass efficiency defense.  Here's the deal.  They are 12th in pass defense, which measures passing yards allowed per game.  That is because their opponents have called 84 passing plays and only 47 passing plays.  They are allowing 60% completions with about 10 yards/attempt, which is OK but not great.  Again, those were BCS teams.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

So far, they are only allowing 23% conversions, which is 6th in the nation.  (BG is 3rd).  You will find yielding yards a lot more forgiving when you are getting off the field at this rate.

Do they defend in the red zone?

In 8 trips, they have allowed 4 TDs and 4 FGs.  That is 5 per trip which is bad for the defense.

Do they pressure the QB?

They have 3 sacks, but remember, there haven't been that many passing attempts, so that are at 6% which is average.

In some senses this unit remains a mystery.  They have not been showing dominant numbers to date--even against the teams they have played. From looking at it, BG will need to run the ball, which has not been a strength, but has appeared improved.

Special Teams:


Punting?

Their punting game is not good.  They are only netting 29 yards, which is 118th in the FBS.  They have allowed a return TD.

Punt Return?

You don't see too many punt returns in today's game, and they have only 2 for 8 yards.

Placekicking?

Mason Krysinski is 1-2 with his only make being from 22.  That is his only career FG.

Kickoff?

They are just average, allowing an average start of the 31.  The kicks have been very short (50 yards) with little return.

Kickoff Return?

Their number (starting at 25) is influenced by 4 touchbacks, but they have two good returners who have been effective when they do get to return.  Their long is 32 yards this year.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

Miami is the defending champ and this is their home opener.  They are expecting a huge crowd, perhaps a sell out.  Obviously, these are big advantages to them.  At the same time, it is their first non-BCS game, though, come on, one was Minnesota.  However, they were barely better than us last year in the Fog Bowl, and we're better this year, and I am not so sure they are as good on either side of the ball as advertised.  BG will have to run the ball effectively.  I do think we will have to score to win.  BG is a slight underdog in the line and I can see that, but if BG has had a fire lit under it by the Wyoming game, I think this is shaping up to be a game we have a real shot in.

Miami has won 10 of the last 12 games between the teams.

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