Thursday, December 04, 2008

Offensive Efficiency Ratings--Rocket Version

Its been a few weeks since I have summoned up the energy to look at the offensive efficiency rating for one of our games. Rest assured that I have been keeping the database up to date, and, as always, you can view it here absolutely free of charge.

And, if you want to know what it all means, you can click here.

Basically, you get points for each play, based on the situation. On 2-10, a three yard gain is worth no points. On 3-2, a three yard gain is worth a point. Big plays are worth multiple points, and turnovers and lost yard plays are negative points.

For comparison purposes, there were 1,501 plays scored during the season. 48.8% of them are "winning plays" (worth at least one point) and .79 points per play is the standard over those plays.

For BG, it was among the best offensive games of the season. We had three turnovers, which really hurts your total, or else it probably would have been our top game. In general, the numbers are in the vicinity of what we did against Kent.

We had "wins" on 54% of our plays, which means that we were over 50% for the last four games of the season. Our 1.03 points per play is really good, and tied with our season best, which was Kent. Our 1.88 points per winning play (which is a measure of big plays) is the third best for the season.

We had excellent balance. In fact, at 1 point for each running play and 1.03 points per passing play, it was our only game where both running and passing were over one point per play.

Finally, we absolutely killed on second and third down....1.42 points per play on second down and 1.07 points per play on third down. Both pretty tough to defend. (I have a theory that I will test in the off-season that the secret to moving the ball is to have a winning play on first or second down.)

As for the defense, well, this was probably our best game of the year, and without debate ranks with OU and Wyoming as among the top performances.

UT had only 36% winning plays, very similar to the OU and Wyoming scores. Their points per play was .39, which was the season best, and the 1.05 points per winning play was also among the best.

The most stunning stat is the passing stat...UT had negative points (thanks to turnovers and sacks) on passing plays. This is an incredible stat. They did run for .79 points, but there were some garbage yards once the game was over. BG killed them on first down (.28 points per play) and third down (.23 points per play), which plays a pretty critical role in keeping the team afloat.

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