Friday, November 25, 2016

THE GAME: BG and Morgan State

At noon on Saturday I know you are thinking about....Morgan State

Well, a few people will be.  MOST people around here will have their eyes on the Horseshoe, but there will be some eyes on the Stroh Center.

BG is playing Morgan State in a game the Falcons should absolutely win.  The Bears were 9-22 last year, and finished t-9th in the MEAC.  Their final RPI was 329 and their final kenpom was 304.  And, they lost four starters from that team.

They are picked to finish 12th in the Blue Ribbon and 9th in their media poll.  They have made 2 NCAA appearances, in 09 and 10, with 2 first round losses out as a #15 seed.

Right now, they are #333 in and are 2-3 for the year, 1-3 in D1 games.  They beat Campbell at home, and lost to Towson, Houston and Brown, all on the road.  They played Wednesday night in Providence RI. Not sure if they went home in the meantime, but that's a pretty good amount of travel.

Not to build expectations too high, but BG and Morgan State, thus far, are two of the worst-shooting teams in D1.  BG is ranked #313 in effective FG% and Morgan is #303.  Morgan combines that with 21.6% turnovers...which leaves them #334 in offensive efficiency.  Now, to their credit, they are very effective on the offensive boards, with 36%, which is in the top 60 in the country.  They also do a good job getting to the line and are #9 in the nation in making FTs, with over 80%.

On defense, Morgan State has been easy to shoot against.  They allow 54% effective field goal %.  They generate an average number of defensive turnovers. are very poor on their defensive boards (38.2%) and average at letting opponents get to the line.

The Bears are being lead this year by 6'5" JUCO transfer Tiwian Kendley.  He is scoring 21.7 PPG, but it is a very inefficient scoring.  He uses a shit load of possessions.  In fact, he is #11 in the country in percent of his team's possessions used.  He shoots 36% and 27%.  He also averages 6.6 RPG with almost 5 turnovers a game.

Also in double figures is Phillip Carr, a 6'8" JR.  He's scoring 17.8 PPG on 57% shooting and 8.6 RPG.  Kyle Thomas (6'7" SR) is scoring 10.8 PPG on 42% shooting and 6'7" FR David Syfax (from Detroit Pershing) is scoring 10 PPG on 50% shooting.  Their assist leader is Martez Cameron at 3.2 per game over about 3 turnovers per game.

The Bears are coached by Todd Bozeman, who coached at Cal and actually was the cause of them having to forfeit their entire 94-95 season and most of the next one.  He ended up with an eight-year show cause penalty.

On paper, this was put on the schedule to be a winnable game and it should be.  This team is nowhere near the team BG beat on Monday night.  Now, that's certainly no guarantee, but BG should be able to get this one done for a second straight win.

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