Saturday, November 05, 2016

MAC MBB Odds and Ends from

So, here's some fun stuff I found on based on the MAC last season.  So, the key here is that there are 32 conferences, so these rankings are out of that.

First, everyone always talks about how hard it is to win in the MAC on the road.  (All rankings are conference games only).  The questions that true....and how hard is it.

The home team won 64% of MAC games last year.  Which is a lot, though probably not as high as I expected.  It's still a lot...#9 ranked conference in D1.  The hardest is the PAC-12, with 71% and home teams in the Big West had a losing record.

How about close games?  This is a game within 4 points or an OT game.  Out of 108 MAC games, only 17 met that criteria, which is #26.  Even more interesting is that only 10 were blowouts (>19) #28, so the MAC is kind of in the middle.  Not a lot of close games, not a lot of blowouts.

How about offense?  Is the MAC more of an offensive conference or a defensive conference.  The answer is 2016 was that the offenses got the better of the play.  Remember, these are conference games only, so it is zero sum.  The offensive rankings are direct reflections of the defensive rankings.

So, offensive efficiency (points per possession) in the MAC was 105.9, which was #8 in the MAC.  In other words, the offense won way more battles than the defense did.  (The MAC's points per possessions was just a tick less than the ACC's).

So how did that happen?  Remember, it can't be tempo, because we are talking tempo-fee stats here.  (FWIW, the MAC was #15 in tempo in the country at 68.8 possessions per game).

So, what drives that?  It is not surprising to know that it is driven by the two most important of the four factors.  The MAC is #11 in effective FG%, which is FG% which gives 1.5 for a made 3 and 1 for a made 2, thereby reflecting shot selection as part of its measurement.  The second most important factor is turnovers, and MAC teams are 10th in taking care of the ball.

So, if you get more shots because you don't turn it over and you make more shots, that's going to help you end up with offensive success/defensive failure.

The MAC is also strong at scoring from the line.  The MAC is #14 at getting to the line and #7 at making FTs.  So that helps scoring, too.

In fact, the only category where the defenses are having success is on the boards.  The MAC is #23 in offensive rebounding %.

You can drill into the shooting a little bit. The MAC's shooting success is largely based on 3FGs.  The conference is #7 in the percentage of FG% coming from 3FG and #8 in percentage of points coming from 3FG.  Conversely, the MAC is #14 in points from 2FGs and #7 from FTs, which doesn't reflect a strong imbalance in any direction.

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