Monday, September 08, 2014

Burbrink is MAC EAST Special Teams Player of the Week

Congrats to Ryan Burbrink for being the MAC East Special Teams Player of the Week.  He has turned into a really good punt returner...he seems to make good decisions.  Doesn't get greedy...he fair catches when that is what is available but when there is a line, he's dangerous.  He could easily have scored in both games so far and probably should have.  As it is, the VMI TD was the 2nd of his career.

Congrats Ryan!!

Benchmark Report For VMI


Now, looking at the VMI game when compared to the MAC benchmarks from the 2013 season...

On offense, you can see the BG was well ahead of the benchmarks in many areas.  BG kept negative passing plays to a minimum, had an average performance on turnovers per play, produced a first down on 37% of its offensive plays and, thanks to two special teams touchdowns, had a really good yards per point ratio.  Up and down, the numbers are well above the average.   BG was even about 2 seconds faster per play than they were at WKU.

On defense, BG had some good results.  The 2 sacks and 1 INT are not great accomplishments for the defense, given the number of passes that VMI threw.  Their yards per point is just dreadful.  I know they only scored 7, but it just shows they had a bunch of yards to only get 7 points.  The red zone average is a clear reason...certainly that was a strength for the team last year.

Sunday, September 07, 2014

Past and Future Opponent Land

On two fronts, it was a big night for Maction...as NIU and CMU both picked up wins over Big 10 teams...CMU in a blow-out without Titus Davis and NIU in a close win.

Ball State led until late against Iowa.

Meanwhile, UT was handily beaten by Missouri at the Glass Bowl and Akron lost @Penn State, neither of which is any great shame.  OU lost @Kentucky, which you'd like to think they had a shot at, but they only got 3 points.  UMass lost a close game to Colorado, who must really suck...but still, Power 5.  EMU got hammered by Florida, which was totally expected.

On the down side....

Miami lost to Eastern Kentucky (FCS) in Oxford.  Buffalo lost @Army.  And Kent lost in Kent to South Alabama.

So two nice wins, 3 not so nice losses, and 1 game where we got a big-time opponent on a MAC Field and didn't get it done.  (And don't get me wrong...a second could easily occur at the Doyt on Saturday.)

Finally, for those who feel I was underrating WKU in last week's analysis, they played Illinois very tough, leading the Illini entering the 3rd Q before 3 straight TDs put them away...for what it is worth.

Look below...no team on our schedule beat an FBS team yesterday.

Also, I believe there is a possibility that Beckman, Hazell and Hoke could all be available to coach again in the MAC by Christmas.

Western Kentucky (1-1) lost 42-34 at Illinois
Indiana (1-0) IDLE..can you believe that?
Wisconsin (1-1) Beat Western Illinois 37-3.
UMass (0-2) Lost 41-38 to Colorado.
Buffalo (1-1) Lost 47-39
Ohio (1-1) Lost 20-3 to Kentucky
WMU (0-1) IDLE
Akron (1-1) Lost 21-3 to Penn State
Kent (0-2) Lost at home to South Alabama
Toledo (1-1) Lost at home to Iowa
Ball State (1-1) Lost @Iowa

MAC vs. Power 5: 2-9
MAC vs. non-MAC FBS: 0-6
MAC vs. FCS: 8-1
East vs. West: NA

Win #1: Odds and Ends

A few other notes from yesterday's win...mostly bitches.

BG had a crowd of 18K, which is on the disappointing side of the equation.  The student section was filled, so no issues there, but the community sections were pretty soft.  No excuses...both UM and OSU played at night and it was a gorgeous day and your team is the defending champ and you are theoretically playing an exciting brand of ball.

I have been attending games there since 1971.  I'm glad getting attendance is not my job.

It is mostly due to TV timeouts, but the pace of the game--especially in a blow out--is just deadly.

I think we try to jam too much stuff into some of the breaks.  BG would do a summary of the scoring drive and try to show a bunch of plays and often there wasn't enough time for the whole thing.

"Talons Up," which seems to be the new athletic tagline, is incredibly stupid and makes everyone doing it look dumb.  We were better with "Roll Along," which I wasn't crazy about either, but "Talons up" is just dopey.

I know that we don't really have a clock killing part of our offense, so I understand why you needed to go fast even in the 4th with a big lead...but that doesn't mean I didn't wish for someone to just bleed some clock.  I never like to see us running up the score...keeping the #1 offense in was understandable given the issues with Knapke being new, but I didn't think we needed to challenge a fumble call with a 34 point lead in the 4th and VMI punting anyway.

I liked the idea of having food trucks in the stadium to provide variety as well as taking the pressure off of the notoriously slow concession lines.

Win #1: Analysis

With the Falcons finally back on the winning side, let's take a look at how we did on each side of the ball.  All this with the caveat that it is tough to determine much from stats in a game where the talent is as one-sided as this one was.  You'd expect to win 48-7 and you did (which is good), but how much else translates to the rest of the schedule is hard to tell.

Starting with the offense.

Everyone wants to mostly know about James Knapke.  I thought he played a very solid game.  He completed 71% of his passes for 266 yards, with is 7.8 yards per play (a very good number) and 10.5 yards per catch, which is less than the MAC average last year.  I think that was the result of more short passes (Babers said that was what VMI was giving) and it didn't seem like we had a lot of yards after catch.  There was one long pass play that was just out of bounds.  Anyway, with the short passes, you need a high completion percentage, which he had.  Finally, he threw one pick...it was one of those plays where he and the receiver made different reads and I have no idea which one of them made the right read.

Coach said after the game that they left Knapke in longer because he needed the reps.  His backup, Cody Callaway, did get some late time.  That burns his redshirt.

Credit to the offensive line for dominating the line of scrimmage.  Knapke was not sacked and the running game was very effective.  Note, however, for future reference that Knapke hasn't been tested yet against pressure.

Speaking of the running game, BG had a great game on the ground.  Greene has 129 yards on 7.2 yards per carry and 2 scores,  Coppet had 73 yards on 9.1 yards per carry and 1 TD and Knapke had a 17 yard run into open space that ability could also be very valuable.  Essentially, BG ran the ball at will against VMI.

The RBs are very good.  Coaches main concern is their long-term health, since they are both small and were both injured last year, too.  I think you can expect to continue to see a two-man rotation.

From the receivers, Roger Lewis had an outstanding game.  He had 6 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown and a TD, his first.  He was a clear deep threat, made some catches in traffic and seems to be a productive receiver on day 1. Heath Jackson also had 6 catches for 59 yards...one was for 30 so the other five were for 29.  Everybody else had a pretty quiet game.  Moore had 3 grabs...was set up for one screen that could have been big but the ball was knocked down.  Dieter was limited to 2 catches.

For the defense...

The overall numbers are what you would expect.  BG allowed only 7 points.  However, they game up 24 first downs and VMI had 3 blank red zone possessions to go with 24 first downs.  It was not a shut down offensive performance.  VMI had no success running the ball.  Their main backs averaged 3.3 and 3.6 yards per carry.

Passing was a different story.  VMI threw for 321 yards against BG.  For perspective, last year, after the Indiana game, the most passing yards BG allowed in a game was 232.  That fact is mitigated a little bit by the fact they took 55 passes to get there, which left them at 5.8 yards per attempt, which is below average.  Their yards per completion, however, was 10.7 and higher than BG's.  They completed only 55% of their passes.

I felt like the coverage was still lacking, just by observation.  Coach said after the game that they were pulling guys who didn't challenge receivers.  We do seem to be in soft coverage a lot and VMI would see that and check into a high percentage hitch route for 8 yards.  When we defend those plays successfully, you have to hit the guy as soon as he gets the ball, otherwise you are competing in space, and we still seem too often (though it was better) to be slow to get there.  Each of their top 4 WRs had a catch over 20 yards.

This is made worse by serious depth issues at CB.  Will Watson was already out and then Adjei-Barimah was injured and on crutches and for a while true FR. Nick Johnson was banged up, too.  BG brought in Clint Stephens, another true FR who was picked on a little at first but then seemed to pick up the pace a little bit and had a nice break up.  So, you have depth issues at CB and then it is made worse by injuries.

I guess this remains probably the largest concern on our team.

We did get more pressure on the QB than the WKU game--which you would expect--with 2 sacks and 5 hurries.

The other major worry was the injury to DJ Lynch, a top-flight LB.  I'm no Dr.--but it certainly looked pretty serious.  Paul Senn moved over to play there and had a pretty big day with 13 tackles, 2 for loss and a forced fumble and a recovery.  He's a capable player, saw time last year, is a JUCO transfer, but I think the Falcons will miss Lynch if he is out for an extended period of time.

One last note on the defense...they did force 2 turnovers, the fumble above and a Ryland Ward INT.

Special teams....

It was sort of feast or famine here.  BG had 2 special teams TDs, but also two blocked kicks and a roughing the kicker penalty.

Ryan Burbrink had the TD, which was a great run.  He is very dangerous on that play.  It started with him fighting Ronnie Moore for the ball, but from there he found space and got to the end zone.  Coach noted that it was good to see him do that after he tripped over his feet in a similar situation against WKU.

The other TD was on a blocked punt.  They struggled with the snap to the punter all day, and we usually were setting up a return.  We called the block and the snap was bad and BG just swallowed up the VMI punter and blocked the ball.  About five Falcons could have scored, but Herve Coby got the honors and carried it in.

The negatives...a blocked XP that looked to be problems on the hold and then a blocked FG when BG didn't block the flank effectively...and a roughing the kicker penalty with BG holding a huge lead and our guy being nowhere near blocking the ball.

Davidson's net was 38 yards for punting, which is a little bit down from his first game.

One last note...I'd like to know the last team to get 7 points and have 39 minutes of possession, which is what VMI did.  BG's longest possession of the game was 3:29.

Overall, this team is far from out of the woods.  As noted, the MAC East is looking forgiving, but with the defensive issues compounded by injury and the new QB, the season remains very much an open question.

Saturday, September 06, 2014

Falcons Get First Win....

BG did what they were expected to do tonight, beating an undermanned VMI team 48-7 at the Doyt.  That's what they were on the schedule for and that's what happened.

We'll have more analysis tomorrow.  A few thoughts:

Injury issues continue to plague this team.  With Johnson out and Colvin reported out, things got a little tougher.  DJ Lynch left the game with what appeared to be a serious injury and Jude Adjei-Barimah also left with a leg injury and did not return.  Coach had no update on Lynch after the game and wasn't asked about Adjei-Barimah, so we don't know.  Tough situation, though, with the offensive juggernaut from Indiana coming in next week.

I thought James Knapke played well.  He made a bunch of throws, found guys open, seemed to be pretty accurate, certainly a good start.

Greene and Coppet are an outstanding running combo.  Roger Lewis had a great game for BG.  Heath Jackson also made some nice grabs.

The defense was certainly improved.  I thought the tackling was better.

The run defense is excellent.  Neither team has had any success running against BG.

At times the coverage was better, but I thought even VMI exposed it at times.  Even in a victory where BG allowed only 7 points, I'd say this remains a concern.  Coach said after the game that if guys aren't going to challenge the ball, they might as well be on the sidelines.  I still thought we were soft on a lot of coverage, and VMI seemed to be able to check into a quick hitch pass to the side for much of the game.  And, for a team that was playing soft, VMI got behind BG a couple of times, too.

So for all that, in every game BG plays from here on in, teams will be harder to pass against, run against, tackle and cover in space.  So the question is whether the Falcons can continue to improve or whether these issues will be exposed as the competition gets better...and whether BG has the bodies on defense to complete what was already a struggle.

One comforting thought is that it was not a great day for the MAC East.  Miami lost to Eastern Kentucky, Buffalo lost to Army, and Kent lost to Southern Alabama...meanwhile, UMass lost to Colorado (in a close game...Colorado must be awful), Ohio managed only 3 @Kentucky and Akron lost at Happy Valley.  Point is, this is not the world's toughest division right now.  If you can get enough going to win the division, then you're in the big game and that's not  until December.

But there's a lot that has to happen for that to become a reality.

Tweet from JWagnerBlade (@jwagnerblade)

JWagnerBlade (@jwagnerblade)
#BGSU football: #Falcons learned Friday that Tennessee transfer DE Malik Brown IS eligible. Could see action v. VMI today.

This is big news helps with Colvin injury. 

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