UB Preview

The beat goes on....two teams will play in Buffalo Saturday with one loss each in MAC play.  The loser will go from slim chances at the MAC title to none.  The other will stay alive, on paper.

Pete Lembo is coaching the Bulls.  He's our old friend from Ball State back in the Clawson era.  He's a solid coach, went 9-4 in his first year in Buffalo, and then 5-7 last year and 4-3/2-1 thus far this season. 

They won a close one in the FCS game, lost @FIU and @Penn State, won a close one over Robert Morris, lost by 3 to WMU, shocked Toledo, and then beat UMass in OT.  They have had 4 games come down to 3 points.

UB has won 6 of the last 8 in the series.  Leipold delivered 3 straight blowouts, Linguist had a blow out and BG lost 28-3 last year.  As for that one, it wasn't pretty.  BG didn't score until the last quarter.  Drew Pyne made his last appearance in a Falcon uniform, and Najm finished the game. BG managed only 216 yards in that one.

MAC Leaders:

• Chance Morrow is the #2 WR with 37 receptions #3 in yards, #1 in TD (6) at 11.9 per reception, which is nothing huge.
• Phillip Folmar is #4 in KOR (24.7) and Miles Greer is #8 in punt returns (7.6).
• Ethan Stumpf is #2 in punting.  He has 44 punts and 12 of them are over 50.
• Oliver Hautanean is #1 in FGs, 12 of 15 with a long of 52.
• SaVeon Brown is #4 in tackles.
• And, finally, their RB.  Messiah Burch is an actual Bell Bull.  He has 118 carries, #2 in the conference.  He has 5.6 ypc, which is #5 among backs with high attempt numbers.  He leads with 661 yards.

Which leads us to the preview:

So, some keys.  

UB has lost 7 fumbles. At -4, it's unusual to have a good record as they do.

BG's defense is at the bottom of the MAC.  Now, we've been gashed by some P4 teams and showed some ability to get stops against G6 and MAC teams.  And then we got pushed around by Ball State last week.  UB runs the ball a lot--more than we do.  And they have a lead back who is very effective and used to work.  Which team shows up for BG might decide it.

BG's offense is pretty anemic. UB is not great defensively.  They can be run against.  BG needs to establish the run to get the offense going, if for no other reason than we are not going to give up on running either way.

QB play could be key.  UB's QB1 is out for the season and QB2 has not been great.  If BG can control the line, it will make it tough.

UB's special teams are good, so BG has to hold their own there.

UB is a 3.5 point favorite, which is essentially home field.  Last week was a disappointment, and this week is harder.