Ball State Preview

The rain should clear out, and we're looking at a cool, dry day at the Doyt.  With the OSU-IU game of the century starting at the same time, I am not optimistic about a crowd, but I'll be there. 

Ball State has a story not unlike BG. This was a proud program for many years... after the Brady Hoke years, they fell into an inevitable Stan Parris collapse, and then Pete Lembo brought them back and won 10 games in 2013.  Lembo was reputed to be the choice at Wake until Clawson upset NIU and snatched the job.  Since that 2013 season, the Cards have had only one winning season, and that was the COVID season.  In '24, they fired Mike Neu (alumni hire) and brought in Mike Uremovich, who is 3-7 in MAC play in 1+ years. He was the head coach at Butler until coming to Muncie.

BG has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, dating back to Gary Blackney.  The only win was at BGSU, when Lembo beat Babers in his first year. BG is a 6.5-point favorite.

Schedule-wise, Ball State has played a tougher schedule than BG...losing to OSU, Northwestern, and getting smoked by Liberty.  Their one win was Stony Brook.  They lost by 13 to Kent and 15 to UT.

Numbers below are for all games.  But BG's numbers are up since MAC play started, and BSU's haven't.  (Below are my fancy AI-assisted 25 questions I have done over the years, just formatted nicely.)

I think we start with the idea that Ball State has really not stopped anyone except Stony Brook.  They give up 5.8 yards per rush....BG should be able to run the ball against them. Hopefully, the unit is gaining a little confidence and competence now that the P4 teams are gone.  BG should also be able to throw the ball against Ball State. It isn't looking too windy.

BSU is a little better on offense, but not great and terrible on 3rd down.  They are last in the MAC in sack percentage, which is an excellent weakness for BG's defense, which is great at rushing the QB.  BG's defense has been its calling card, and there's every reason to think the defense should be able to set the tone.

Ball State (aka Punter U) has the top net punting in the MAC, while BG is last.  On paper, every exchange of punts will be -11.1 yards for BG.  They have had some decent punt returns.  BG has had outstanding FG kicking and is consistently getting the ball into the end zone on kickoffs.

So here we go.  Anything but a win will be extremely disappointing.