Next Up: The defending champs

Next up is a real test.  WMU is the defending MAC Champion,   They were 10-4 last year and are in that one-loss logjam at the top of the standings.  Of course, we all know the story with the Michigan game. They beat Monmouth and Rice, and then a big G6 showdown with Boise State in Kzoo, which they lost 32-7. They beat UB, Kent and CMU before falling just short at UT last weekend.

BG has won 4 of the last 6 against WMU.  In fact, Taylor has never beaten Bowling Green. This is the first game in which Coach George has faced the Broncos. BG won the last meeting 31-13.

The Broncos have one of the better funded programs in the MAC. You can tell because MAC OPOY Broc Lowry and RB Jalen Buckley (two-time All-MAC, MAC FR of year) keep coming back.

They are tough to beat at home...despite having some real down periods, they have won 62% of their home games at Waldo.

MAC Stats: MAC Only.

• Buckley is #4 in rushing yards and #8 in yards per carry.  He has 73 carries, one of 5 high-load backs in the conference.
• Lowry is #3 in passing efficiency and #20 in rushing yards. 
• Aveion Chenault is #9 in yards per game receiving.
• Josh Franklin is #2 in KOR, and has scored.
• They have the #2 punter in the MAC (Ryan Millmore).

So a few thoughts.

• WMU is the #2 rushing defense in the MAC.  It would be a huge surprise if this was the game when BG started to regularly establish the run.
• On the other hand, BG leads the MAC in passing efficiency and WMU is #9 in passing defense.  This would seem like an opportunity, but in fairness, we didn't generate those numbers in a pass-first offense.
• If they do, they are facing a WMU team that leads the MAC in sacks.  Blocking will be key.
• WMU runs a lot....63% of total plays.  They are OK on yards per rush (#3), but also have volume to work with.  BG is #8 in rushing defense.  It's going to be key for us to win these battles for 60 minutes.  Against a similar offense, we did OK for a while with UB but eventually wore down.  Also, Lowry is probably the best running QB we have faced in MAC play.

WMU is a 12.5-14 point favorite.  That seems right, but games like this turn every day.  It will start on defense.