Next Up For MBB: Kent State

So, BG has left Amherst--where the natives are freaking out, since they didn't want to join the MAC in the first place, and they have yet to win a game in football or men's basketball since joining--and moved on to a school very comfortable in MAC Basketball:  Kent State.

Once Gary Waters went 23-7 in 1999, they have played 27 seasons without a losing record.  Of those, 23 have been outright winning records, and 21 have been 20-win seasons.  There are 7 NCAA appearances, including one Elite Eight.

It is a model of consistency that any program would aspire to.  When they play BG, it's a little bit more. Kent has won the last 12 meetings between the schools, an absurd result that is starting to look like BG's record against Akron. Last year BG lost by 17 in Kent and 7 at the Stroh.

Kent is 11-3/9-3/2-0.  After losing to Troy in the MAC-SBC, the Flashes went on a 10-game winning streak.  They had a tough loss @Portland (#230) and then also lost @Purdue.  They won @UMass by 10 and beat NIU by 4 at home, a game that had Coach Senderhoff ripping his team for failing to finish.  Kent led by 21 at the half, but NIU had the lead to 10, and it ended up at 2 in the final seconds before Kent put it away at the line.

To start with, they play fast.  They play at 73 possessions, which is #21 in the nation. Kent's offensive efficiency is 1.12, which is #103. 

They have two significant offensive strengths.  They have great shooting, 54% overall. They try 46% of their shots from 3FG and make 35% to go with 54% on 2FG. They are also #10 in the nation at getting to the line and make 75% when they get there. They get 25% of their points at the line (#19).  They are also strong on the offensive boards.

It's an interesting matchup.  BG defends the 3FG effectively, and does turn the ball over (#11).  The biggest worry is that BG fouls a ton — #333 at putting opponents on the line.  That's playing with fire with Kent.

On defense, Kent allows 1.09 PPP, which is #207.  However, they have been locked down in their 2 MAC games — admittedly against weak MAC teams.  

Here's a chance to look at BG's shooting.  BG makes 33.9% on 3FG, which is pretty much average (D1 is 33.6%).  BG only takes 35% from 3FG, which is well below average.  On 2FG, they make 54% and overall, they are 52.6%, which is #114 in the country.  BG also takes good care of the ball, gets to the line a lot, and makes 72.5%. BG makes 21.5% of its points from the line.

Kent has defended the shot poorly. They allow 38% on 3FGs and 52% against 2FGs, neither of which is good. They do create turnovers, and they are (as you would expect) good on the defensive boards.  And they foul a lot.

Kent historically just plays very physically.  I have seen stretches of games where they seem to foul as often as they can, knowing they can't all be called.

Kent is led by Delrecco Gillespie.  He's in his 4th year at Kent.  Last year, he had 8 points and 8 rebounds per game.  This year, he has exploded and is averaging a 19/11 double-double and putting himself in the MAC POY convo.  He makes 61% from 2FG and 78% at the FT line. He also blocks 1.9 shots per game.  

Morgan Safford, in his 2nd year after transferring from Miami, is scoring 14.1 PPG.  He shoots mostly 3FGs and makes 36%. Also adds about 5 RPG.

Rob Whaley--a cousin of Gillespie's--is scoring 10.6 PPG and makes 53% on mostly 3FGs.

Cian Medley averages 6.2 APG, which is a lot.

Kent plays 10 players an average of 10 minutes per game, which is a pretty big rotation. 

Kent is a 1.5-point favorite.