BG MBB Needs a Bounceback Win

Key turnaround here for the BG Falcons MBB team.  BG played well enough to win Saturday at Savage, but took a gut punch when a one-eyed true FR drained a trey to steal the game.

They are back at home...and they need to rebound quickly.  Their next four MAC games are winnable, and if they can get to 8-4, they are almost sure to get to Cleveland.

The opponent is one of the MAC's more interesting teams.  UB struggled when Nate Oats left, but three years ago hired George Halcovage from Villanova.  He was 11-49 for his first two seasons as he tried to work an old-school rebuild.

They were picked 11th by the MAC and 9th by Blue Ribbon.  The magazine appeared to be onto something, as UB did start out in surprising fashion. Playing the #348 non-conference schedule, they were 10-2/8-2 hitting MAC play. They also had a soft start to MAC play, winning @WMU, @NIU, and BSU to open 3-0.

At that point, they transitioned to the murderer's row of their schedule, losing @OU, KSU, @MU, UA, and UMass.  They took Miami to OT--in fact, MU needed buzzer beaters at the half and in OT to beat the Bulls, and that was at Millet.

They are now 3-5 in MAC play and on a five-game losing streak.  In fact, their next two games after this are OU and MU, both in Buffalo.

Their KenPom started at 329 and is now 189, probably one of the biggest increases in the country.

BG has won six of the last 10 against the Bulls, including the last 3 overall and the last 2 at the Stroh. If UB does win against BG (KenPom 113), it would be their second-biggest win of the year.  They beat DePaul (102).

They play at 66 possessions, which is relatively slow.

Their success in MAC play has mostly been driven by their offense. They have the number 4 offense in the MAC. They shot 45% from 3FG, also #4, and they make 38%, which is #2.  They are #4 from 2FG.  They also take good care of the ball, #4 in limiting turnovers. 

That's a tough combo to beat.  They don't offensive rebound at all, and they don't draw fouls, and they make 73% at the line, which is #8.

BG's put together two strong defensive games in a row, and they'll need another one.  It's another good test.  If BG can string those together, the team will be much less inconsistent, which has been a problem. Statistically, BG is #7 in defense, but that is moving up.  They need to force turnovers, which they did not do against the Rockets.

Defensively, UB is not good.  They are #10 in defense and last in defending the overall shot and the 2FG.  And #10 defending the 3FG.  They are #6 in forcing turnovers and don't foul much — as we saw with Toledo.  Other than shooting, their other weakness is OREB, in which they are #9, and BG is #6.

I suspect Coach will have the turnover issues cleaned up, and we'll have to see if BG can make shots at home like they did in the last home game against EMU.

UB has two guys who can really score the ball. (Stats below MAC games only).

Daniel Freitag is the #2 scorer in the conference.  (Campbell is #1).  In HS, he was the #11 PG in the nation and the #104 overall player according to 247. He went to Wisconsin, where he played in 14 games before transferring to UB.  He's scoring 21.6 PPG.  He's not super efficient (48%/33%/75%) and is #2 in the MAC in % of shots taken. He also adds 5.3 APG (#5 in MAC) and #1 in A/T ratio.

Ryan Sabol is scoring 20.1 per game, which is #5 in the MAC.  He plays 94% of their minutes.  He is more efficient than Freitag, shooting 51%/41%/87%. He adds 3.9 APG, which is #10 in the MAC. He came to UB right out of HS.

Angelo Brizzi scores 11.9 PPG. He's efficient at 58%/39%/75% and leads them with 12 steals. He is an example of even this coach having to compromise... he's played at Longwood, Davidson, and Villanova.

Tim Oboh is 6'11" and from England.  He averages 5 RPG and has blocked 10 shots.  Noah Batchelor is 6'8" and transferred from Maryland two years ago. He averages 5.1 RPG and led the team in rebounding last year.

BG plays a short rotation at 28.3 bench minutes.  UB uses 25.7%.

BG is a 7.5-point favorite.  From Vegas's lips to God's ears.