EMU MBB Preview

The EMU Eagles are coming to town Saturday.  Not to say this is a must-win...but this is probably one we need to win.

We are currently 2-3.  Yes, we have played by far the toughest schedule in the MAC to date, with a brutal six-day run.

And now, we move on to what we expect to be easier games.  We don't even play Akron again.

Here's the thing.  The first goal is to make it to Cleveland.  The second goal is to be at least a 6 seed to avoid Akron or Miami in the first round.

Last year, 8 wins got us into 8th.  So, let's look at a 10-8 record, for example.  We have 5 games left with teams from Michigan.  One with Ball State and one with NIU. Take care of business, that gets you to 8-9 wins, with other games left.

So, we need to take care of teams like this.

EMU arrives in a little turmoil.  Their #2 scorer and #1 scorer in conference play, Carlos Hart, was indicted yesterday for involvement in point shaving.  The allegations focus on his time at New Orleans, not at EMU.  (Two other former EMU players were also named.)

He has been suspended indefinitely.

EMU is 9-9, 8-9 when you remove their one non-D1 game.  They had the biggest upset of the MAC non-conference season with a road win over #56 Cincinnati. They also beat a good Oakland team in Ypsi. They are 3-3 in the MAC, with the second-easiest MAC schedule to date.  They won at home against UMass and NIU and @Ball State, with losses @UA, OU, and @WMU.  In the WMU game, they allowed a late 19-2 run to lose by 17 to the Broncos.

They were picked 8th by Blue Ribbon and 9th by the MAC media.  They started at a KenPom of 274 and are now at 195.  BG is at 117.   I haven't seen a point-spread.

The stats for this post are MAC games only.

EMU plays at the #12 pace in the MAC with 68 possessions.  BG plays fastest at 73 possessions.

Here is it shakes out.  Both teams are around .500. EMU is #10 in offense, and BG is #10 in defense.  EMU is #3 in defense and a #7-ranked BG offense. Remembering that BG has played a tough schedule, this still shakes out to a decent matchup.  BG is capable of better defense than that, especially against a team missing its best scorer.

To date in MAC play, BG is #12 at defending the shot.  You'd hope to see that improve as we get into some easier games.

EMU takes only 33% from 3FG, which is 10th.  They are 8th in making 3FGs and 9th on 2FGs. A key point will be turnovers.  EMU is 4th in protecting the ball, and BG is #1 in getting turnovers. The other key difference is fouls...EMU's FT rate is 36%, ranking 8th, while BG's is 44%, ranking 11th.  EMU's FT% is 69%, 11th in the conference.  EMU does not crash the boards, which is normal for teams looking to control pace.

EMU is #3 on defense, partly on holding Ball State and NIU under 60.  They are the best at defending shots and against the 3FG.  BG is #6 in overall shooting and #9 on the 3FG, and #444 on shooting 3FGs at the Stroh.  This would be a good time to turn that around.   EMU does not force turnovers, is strong on the defensive boards, and gives up a FTR of 30%.  BG is #1 in the MAC with a FTR of 44%.  We make 74%, which is #6.

Reminder: FTRate = FTA / FGA

Individually, the top remaining scorer for EMU is Addison Patterson, who scores 14.7 PPG on 69% and 29%.  He's 6'7" with a college journey that includes Oregon / Nevada / Tallahassee State / Northwestern State.  The 2FG shooting% is #9 in the MAC right now. He also averages 6.7 RPG. He also has 3 APG.  He's one of the better players in the MAC you haven't heard of.

Mohammed Habhab is the 2nd leading scorer. He's 6'9" and transferred from CMU. He's scoring 13.2 PPG but on 38% 2FG shooting, which is poor for a big man. He leads the team with 7.7 RPG and has 9 blocked shots.

Jon Sanders makes 43% from 3FG. 

Former Falcon Braelon Green is a starter and plays 24 minutes per day, 5 PPG.

So, EMU has two good big men, which will be a key for the Falcons.  However you slice it, I think our team is pretty good, and we need to demonstrate that tomorrow.