WMU MBB Preview

 So, at one time WMU had a pretty representative program in the MAC.  From 1998 to 2014 they made the NCAA tournament three times.  Steve Hawkins eventually ran out of gas and was let go.  They hired Clayton Bates because looking outside the program during COVID was "unseemly."  That lasted two years and they went up the road to Lansing and brought Dwayne Stephens down.

He was 4-14 in the MAC his first year and then last year they won 4 of 6 coming home, finished 9-9 and made it to Cleveland.  But sustaining success is tough, and WMU lost 4 of their top 6 scorers to the portal.  They have 7 new players this year, and 4 players who red-shirted last season.

Blue Ribbon and the MAC official poll picked them 10th.  They are 2-10 in D1 games this year, but played the 4th toughest schedule in the MAC and 109th in the country.

So the wins are Canisius (359) and @Youngstown State (200). And yes, the losses include @Coastal Carolina (275), SIUE (259) and South Dakota (245)...but also @Dayton (48), @North Dakota State (128), Valpo (198), @MSU (15)....and @St. Thomas, but only by 6, which is 19 better than BG did.  They have lost 6 straight.

They opened MAC play vs. Toledo in Kzoo.  It was a 1-point game with about 11 left, but UT had the lead up to 9 three minutes later and coasted home.

BG has a kenpom of 277 and WMU is 288.  Kenpom gives the Broncos a 59% chance of winning.  The teams have split their last 6 meetings.  BG won both meetings last season.

WMU has played at 68 possessions a game, which is slow.  You have two pretty similar teams here, both of them playing sub-par offense and defense.  BG is only -.06, and WMU is -.11.  (These numbers are raw, not schedule adjusted).

If you knew that Coach Stephens came from the Izzo Zone, than you would expect his teams to be good at one thing, if nothing else--and that is rebounding.  And they are--#36 in the country in offensive rebounding.  After that, it's a struggle.  They take only 29.5% of their shots from 3FG, one of the ten lowest numbers in the NCAA. However, they make only 47% on 2FG and 28% on 3FG, leaving them #325 in the nation in overall shooting.  They help themselves with that rebounding and taking good care of the ball, but they don't get to the line and make only 65% when they do.

As you can see, they shoot poorly but BG defends the shot poorly as well.  BG will look for a few Campbell steals and need some hard work to keep WMU off the boards.

The defensive rebounding is even better.  They are #10...and BG has been terrible on the offensive boards. WMU is #297 in EFG% and is especially bad against the 2FG.  They don't force turnovers and do pretty well keeping teams off the line.  BG is #10 in the nation in FT%, which could be a decisive element in this game.

WMU is led by Chansey Willis, a 6'2" G who was Michigan's Mr. Basketball at Detroit King.  He's been through Saginaw Valley State and Henry Ford CC before heading to Kzoo.  He missed their first 8 games with injury and has played in the last 5...all of them WMU losses. He's scoring 16.8 PPG on 52% 2FG shooting and 22% from 3FG. He also averages 5.6 RPG and 6 assists per game.

Their 2nd leading scorer is Markhi Strickland at 11.8 PPG.  He was a JUCO player who was with WMU last year but played only a few games early in the year before getting injured. He shoots 48% and 27% and 3.8 RPG.

Next is Owen Lobsinger, a 6'9" SR who had 25 against BG at Read Fieldhouse last year.  He is scoring 11.1 PPG on 43% and 29% shooting and 7.4 RPG.  JaVaughn Hanna is scoring 10.8 PPG on 47% and 31% shooting. He was MAC Sixth Man of the Year last year.

They are #65 overall in height and they play 38% bench minutes, so a very deep rotation like Akron had.

BG is an underdog here because they are on the road.  They will (I am guessing) continue to be short-handed and will need to step up the offensive performance from the Akron game, while maintaining the defensive progress they made.