Wednesday, January 01, 2025

Rough Start for MAC MBB

The MAC has had a really poor pre-season in MBB.  This is all based on kenpom.  A couple of quirks.  It counts only D1 games....so while CMU has played the 7th toughest schedule in the country in their D1 games, they have also played a MAC-High 4 non-D1 games.  Similarly, Kent was losing to Heidelberg into the last minute the other day, but it would not have impacted these rankings.   There are 364 teams in these rankings.

So, some observations:
  • 7 of the 12 teams have a worse kenpom than when the season started. 
  • The best non-conference win was George Mason (87) losing to CMU.
  • The next best win was Miami over App State (172)
  • Nine of the 12 teams in the MAC have their best win over a team in the bottom half of D1.
  • Five of the 12 MAC teams have lost to teams over 300.
  • These ratings are likely to fall, given the number of games against teams in the lower half of the rankings...right now 8 of the 12 teams are ranked above 200.
  • The MAC has fallen from the #20 conference to #22 this year.
  • BG has the worst loss overall, to #349 Bellarmine. It is their only D1 win and BG played the game fully healthy.

Team D1 Record Strength of Schedule Starting Kenpom 1/1 Kenpom Difference Best Win Worst Loss
Kent 6-3 202 136 116 +20 @Cleveland State (198) (n) UC Irvine (70)
Akron 5-4 164 130 136 -6 Lamar (189) @Milwaukee (136)
OU 5-6 240 157 162 -5 UNC-Asheville (173) @Marshall (200)
Miami 6-4 287 212 185 +27 @App State (172) @Vermont (243)
Toledo 5-6 89 177 217 -40 Wright State (191) Oakland (210) by 33 at home
CMU 2-6 7 271 215 +66 George Mason (87) Stony Brook (319)
Ball State 3-6 336 243 261 -18 Eastern Kentucky (208) Detroit (317)
BG 3-7 319 264 283 -19 (n) New Mexico State (199) @Bellarmine (349, by 12)
WMU 2-9 100 310 277 +33 @Youngstown State (204) @Coastal Carolina (275)
EMU 5-6 250 293 315 -22 Wright State (190) Detroit Mercy (319)
UB 3-7 93 348 332 +16 NC A&T (307) Vermont (243)
NIU 1-8 113 318 350 -32 Monmouth (274) Eastern Illinois (325)

No comments :