The Hated Rockets (MBB)

And in come the hated Rockets.  UT is consistently among the top programs in the MAC, yet their NCAA drought (1980) is in many ways more shocking than the BG streak.

The Rockets have won the MAC's regular season four years in a row.  This year, they have been inconsistent.  They started out 5-1 and then lost their next 5 D1 games to be 5-6. Included was a loss @Youngstown State as well as losses @Purdue and @Houston.  

They started MAC play, blew through the Michigans and then lost @UA, beat BS and lost to Kent at Savage by 19.  Earlier, they lost to Oakland at home by 33.

These are not normal results. Right now, their kenpom is 212.  If they end the season at 212, it will be their worst year since TK went 4-28 in his first year mopping up the Gene Cross mess.

And even with all that, with the MAC the way it is...who knows?  This might be the year they win it.  They are 4-2 in MAC play.

The shocking thing is those big home losses.  That just didn't happen.

UT has beaten BG 5 of the last 6.  The win at the Stroh last year broke the streak.

They have been playing at 68 possessions per game.

For each of the four regular season title years, UT has led the MAC in offensive efficiency.  This year, they are 3rd.  More importantly, they were #2, #3, #5 and #5 on defense.  This year, they are #11 in defensive efficiency.  The Falcons are #10 on offense and #6 on defense.  This is the kind of set up that can lead to a decent game.

UT is not a great shooting team.  They shoot the lowest % of 3FGs in the MAC.  You need to be good on 2FGs to make that work, but they shoot 52% on 2FGs, which is OK but not great. They shoot only 32% from 3FG.  However, they are best in the MAC at taking care of the ball and #5 on the offensive boards are #2 at getting to the line, where they make 79.7%, #2 in the MAC.  BG has been playing effective defense by being decent at all four factors.  In particular, BG has to get some turnovers and defensive rebounds, both of which are critical to keep the offense out of the halfcourt, and then it will be very important to keep UT off the foul line.

BG has an interesting defensive split.  They are #2 in the MAC in defending the 3FG and #12 in defending the 2FG. Maybe not a great match up given how UT shoots.

UT is average defending the shot.  They don't force turnovers, and their biggest weakness is on the defensive boards, where they are #11 in the MAC.  They do not foul (they usually don't) and BG is used to getting to the line.

UT has three players scoring 15 PPG.

• Sam Lewis, who is shooting 49% and 32%. He makes 83% at the line and 5.2 RPG.
• Sonny Wilson is shooting 54% and 20% and 5.7 RPG.
• Javan Simmon is shooting 58% on almost all 2FGs and 8.7 RPG, #2 in the MAC.

ESPN gives UT a 58% chance of winning and kenpom gives them a 54%.  It is a rivalry game for two teams having flawed seasons.  Hope for a good crowd of Falcons and BG gets some shots to fall.