BG heads to Mt Pleasant (MBB).

 Well, the march goes on.

CMU is next.  They are in Bowling Green's league in terms of transfer problems.  Six of their top 7 scorers left after last year.  They are 5-11 in D1 games.  They have four non-D1 wins.  They had the MAC's best pre-MAC win with a one-point victory at George Mason (73).

They had a rough schedule to start MAC playing, losing to OU and @UA and @UT.  Things got easier, and they are 3-2 in their last five. They beat EMU by 19 in Mt. Pleasant, won @NIU, lost at home to BSU, won @WMU and then last Tuesday lost @UB.  At 3-5 in MAC play, they are one game ahead of BG.

We have split the last 10 meetings.  BG and CMU played three times last year, with the Chips winning both regular season matchups (both in OT, one in 2 OT) and then BG winning in Cleveland. 

CMU plays the slowest pace in the MAC and has a defensively-oriented team.  They are #3 in the MAC in defense and #7 in offense.  BG is #6 in defense and #11 in offense.

Looking at the CMU defense, they are strong in all facets.  They are #4 against the shot, #2 in creating turnovers, #5 in defensive rebounds, and #4 keeping teams off the foul line.  They are very tough inside, defending the 2FG 4th in MAC.  As you might expect, hey have the highest percentage of 3FGs attempted against them, and are #7 defending the 3FG.

BG is #9 shooting the 2FG and #11 shooting the 3FG.  They are average protecting the ball and on the offensive boards.  The only thing they do well is getting to the foul line.  They are coming off their worst offensive game in the MAC season.

On the other side, CMU is an average offense in the MAC.  They are #11 in attempting 3FGS...for good reason, they are #10 in making them.  They are #8 in 2FG. They are #5 in taking care of the ball and #3 on the offensive boards.  They do not get to the line much.  BG is not a bad defensive team.  They are #10 against the shot overall, and #12 against the 2FG, which would make this looking like a tough matchup for the Falcons.  They will need strong play from Felt and everyone will need to rebound to keep CMU off the boards and second-chance points.

Their leading scorer is Jacori Heady.  He is a 6'6" transfer from Bethune-Cookman.  He is scoring 14.9 on 53% 3FG shooting and 13% 3FG. He averages 7.4 RPG, which is #5 in the MAC, and making 82% at the line. 

Their top player is Anthony Pritchard, who transferred from Tulsa and played with CMU last year. He scores 14 PPG on 41% and 35% shooting and only 50% at the line. He is #5 in the MAC with 4.8 APG.

Kyler Vanderjagt is a Belmont transfer.  He is scoring 11.6 PPG on 64% and 38% shooting.  He has not started a MAC game all year. 

Ugnius Jarusevicius is a 6'10" Lithuanian who has also been a productive scorer. He transferred from Cal State-Bakerfield.  He has missed the last 3 games with an injury and we will have to see if he will play tomorrow.

If BG has any hope of getting this turned around, this is one they will need to exceed expectations in. Right now, the spread and the moneyline are off the board.

Falcon MBB Loses 4th Straight

 The Falcons MBB team fell for the 4th straight time and is down to 2-6 in MAC play, as the year continues to be a slog and success is eluding the Falcons. 

BG never led and the last time with 6 minutes into the first half.  A 4 minute 13-3 run put Kent up 11 with 8 to play.  BG got it down to 5 with 5 minutes left, but a 15-2 run for Kent closed the half out with the Flashes up 18.  BG never got it closer than 15 and trailed by as much as 25 in the second half.

It was one of BG's slower games at 64 possessions. BG had a terrible offensive game at .88 points per possession.  Their only worst game this year was St. Thomas.  It wasn't a stellar night on defense either, as Kent scored 1.17 points per possession.

You aren't going to win either way.

BG had their second-worst shooting night of the year, worsted only by that weird NM State game.  BG tried 49% of their shots from 3FG, which is the most this year.  Unfortunately, they made only 27% and 37% on 2FG%.  Turnovers were OK, offensive rebounding was poor and BG did get to the line.  They were +7 at the line and lost by 18.

Kent's EFG% was 61%, the best shooting against BG since the Ball State game. Kent made 56% from 2FG and 46% from 3FG. Turnovers were even, BG was decent on the defensive boards and we've already covered the free throws.

Marcus Johnson had 19 on 3 of 8 and 4 of 9 shooting. Team-high 6 rebounds and 4 turnovers. Campbell had 16 on 1 of 6 and 1 of 5 shooting as he battles his hand injury, but made 11-12 at the line. BG started Humphrey in place of Butler, I assume due to Humphrey's strong +/- last time out, but that didn't play out this time around.  

So back on the road in Mt. Pleasant Saturday.  The four-game losing streak is the worst in Simon's time here...Huger lost 9 straight in his last season.

UT Gets Rivalry Win at Stroh (MBB)

Sadness accrues.

The premier basketball rivalry in the MAC had its latest iteration last night....and, well, it didn't go our way.  It was a great atmosphere on a very cold night...great crowd, even with hockey at the same time...UT was better than us, but the game didn't get out of reach and the Falcons kept chipping away.  In the end, to bridge a deficit you need stops and UT was really good at getting easy baskets at just the right time.

In the end, the Rockets led for 35 minutes. There were 4 lead changes and 6 ties in the first half.  The last of those ties came with 2 minutes left...but UT closed on a 5-0 run to lead by 5 at the half.  (I don't have any data on this, but we tend to give up runs like that at the end of either half).

As Coach mentioned in his presser, we usually come out and execute well at the start of the second half.  That did not happen this time. We had 3 turnovers in the first four minutes, and UT was sinking everything and at 16 left, they were up 12.  They held us at arm's length until the 9 minute mark, when BG got it to 5.

Crowd rallies.  People are pumped.  Need a stop...Lewis bangs home a 3FG.

BG actually had the ball down 6 with 7 left, but missed a shot in the paint and UT hit a shot to make it 8 again. With 6:32 left BG got it back to 6, but UT hit a 3FG to make it 9.

It only got to 6 one more time and UT pushed back with a dunk. They led by 10 with 3:11 left and the game was not in doubt again.

They performed at high efficiency in key possessions.  As Simon said, "they made us pay."

I kind of thought BG would want to push the pace to keep out of the half-court as much as possible. The game went at 70 possessions,which achieves that goal. UT ended up with 1.19 points per possession, which is tough for BG to beat with our offense.  We have not won at that level yet this year.  To wit, BG's offense was 1 point a possession, which is well below national average and a tough number to win with.

As you can see, BG got badly outshot.  The 2FG was 53%, which is not awful, but they only made 27% from 3FG and that made up 39% of their overall attempts.  Meanwhile, UT came in shooting very few 3FGs and not doing it well (and BG came in #2 defending the 3FG. Everything went the other way...UT took 40% 3FG and made 50%, their best in MAC play.  Coach said BG had to choose and they tried to take the drive away, and UT "made us pay."

BG won the turnover battle but it was nominal.  We were beaten pretty bad on the boards. We got to the line more against UT than any MAC team has and ended up +3 at the line, making 74%.  UT made 82%,

Marcus Johnson was just fantastic.  Coach Kowalcyk was effusive in his praise of Johnson after the game.  Johnson scored 28 points on 7 of 11 and 3 of 9 shooting, plus 5-5 at the line and 4 rebounds. Thomas had 13 on 2 of 4 and 2 of 7 shooting. Three assists, 4 turnovers. Felt double-doubled, with 10 points on 3 of 3 from the field, and 12 rebounds. He blocked 3 shots.

BG played 7 guys.  Coach said Squire was sick.  Khayat is still out.  And Green did not play, no explanation was given. 

So, things get tough.  BG is 2-5 and in a rough part of the schedule.  @KS and @CMU next week.  To get to 9-9, BG has to go 7-4 from here on it.  It's tough to see, but you never know.  We are still playing hard and competing.  The halfcourt offense can be tough to watch.

The Hated Rockets (MBB)

And in come the hated Rockets.  UT is consistently among the top programs in the MAC, yet their NCAA drought (1980) is in many ways more shocking than the BG streak.

The Rockets have won the MAC's regular season four years in a row.  This year, they have been inconsistent.  They started out 5-1 and then lost their next 5 D1 games to be 5-6. Included was a loss @Youngstown State as well as losses @Purdue and @Houston.  

They started MAC play, blew through the Michigans and then lost @UA, beat BS and lost to Kent at Savage by 19.  Earlier, they lost to Oakland at home by 33.

These are not normal results. Right now, their kenpom is 212.  If they end the season at 212, it will be their worst year since TK went 4-28 in his first year mopping up the Gene Cross mess.

And even with all that, with the MAC the way it is...who knows?  This might be the year they win it.  They are 4-2 in MAC play.

The shocking thing is those big home losses.  That just didn't happen.

UT has beaten BG 5 of the last 6.  The win at the Stroh last year broke the streak.

They have been playing at 68 possessions per game.

For each of the four regular season title years, UT has led the MAC in offensive efficiency.  This year, they are 3rd.  More importantly, they were #2, #3, #5 and #5 on defense.  This year, they are #11 in defensive efficiency.  The Falcons are #10 on offense and #6 on defense.  This is the kind of set up that can lead to a decent game.

UT is not a great shooting team.  They shoot the lowest % of 3FGs in the MAC.  You need to be good on 2FGs to make that work, but they shoot 52% on 2FGs, which is OK but not great. They shoot only 32% from 3FG.  However, they are best in the MAC at taking care of the ball and #5 on the offensive boards are #2 at getting to the line, where they make 79.7%, #2 in the MAC.  BG has been playing effective defense by being decent at all four factors.  In particular, BG has to get some turnovers and defensive rebounds, both of which are critical to keep the offense out of the halfcourt, and then it will be very important to keep UT off the foul line.

BG has an interesting defensive split.  They are #2 in the MAC in defending the 3FG and #12 in defending the 2FG. Maybe not a great match up given how UT shoots.

UT is average defending the shot.  They don't force turnovers, and their biggest weakness is on the defensive boards, where they are #11 in the MAC.  They do not foul (they usually don't) and BG is used to getting to the line.

UT has three players scoring 15 PPG.

• Sam Lewis, who is shooting 49% and 32%. He makes 83% at the line and 5.2 RPG.
• Sonny Wilson is shooting 54% and 20% and 5.7 RPG.
• Javan Simmon is shooting 58% on almost all 2FGs and 8.7 RPG, #2 in the MAC.

ESPN gives UT a 58% chance of winning and kenpom gives them a 54%.  It is a rivalry game for two teams having flawed seasons.  Hope for a good crowd of Falcons and BG gets some shots to fall.

MBB Loses 7th straight in Oxford

Another chapter of the same story for the Falcons, who are now 2-4 in MAC play heading into the UT game at the Stroh on Friday.  And another chapter in the Millett Hall story...with the 7th straight loss.

Much of the game was competitive....there were 11 lead changes and 9 ties. 

The first half was highly competitive.  Miami built a 7-point lead with about 5 minutes left.  BG bounced back, went on a 13-5 run, and led by 1 at the break. 

Coming out of the locker room, BG blew the lead up to 6 about 2 minutes in, but Miami had it tied two minutes later. The half's key segment came with about 13 minutes left.  The game was tied again at 56.  MU scored the next 13 points to lead 69-56 with 6:49 left to play.  In total, BG went 8 minutes without a FG. 

BG is playing hard even short-handed and chipped away at that lead until it was 1 with 2:32 left to play.  After a trade of baskets, the lead was still 1 with 1:43 to go.  BG was out-scored 5-0 from there on in, including a late-shot-clock dagger 3 by Suder that was reminiscent of the last minute of the EMU game.

The game was fast with 73 possessions. MU had 1.15 points per possession, which is pretty much an unwinnable number for our ability to score.  They made 69% from 2FG and 30% from 3FG to gain a slight edge in shooting for the night.  Turnovers were even, but MU had a strong edge on the boards and BG was only +1 at the line.

BG shot great from 3FG, making 50%, which kept the game close.  BG made only 47% on 2FG, though the Falcons were 13 of 17 in the restricted area.  With our offensive struggles, we cannot have 22% turnovers. The Falcons made 16 of 20 at the line.  It totaled out to 1.05 point per possession, a little below average.

BG had 2 bench points.  DaJion Humphrey was back and played 12 minutes at -12. 

Naturally, all the starters were in double figures.  Thomas had 17 on 2 of 6 and 3 of 6 shooting, 4 of 5 at the line, and 7 assists over 2 turnovers.  Butler had 17, on 2 of 7 and 4 of 9 shooting and 3 steals. Felt had 15, 6 of 6 from 2FG, 3 of 4 at the line, 6 rebounds and 3 turnovers. Javonte Campbell had 14 points on 3 of 5 2FG shooting and 8-8 at the line. Also 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and 1 TO.  Johnson had 11 on 1 of 6 and 3 of 5 shooting. Also 4 assists and 4 turnovers.

The morning found BG tied for 7th at 2-4.  Rivalry game with an up-and-down Rocket team.

MU Preview for MBB

 Next is Miami, in Millet Hall.  

The RedHawks are off to a good start.  Blue Ribbon picked them #8 in the MAC.  To date, they are exceeding that.  They are 13-4. 11-4 in D1 games, and 5-0 in the MAC.  Now, there are a couple caveats....they played the #270 non-conference schedule and they have played, to date, the easiest schedule in the MAC.  They have beaten UB and WMU at home and then @BSU, @NIU and @KS.

Overall, they have won 7 straight, the #10 winning streak in the country.  Millett has been tough for BG, which has lost 6 straight there...the last win was in 2018.  MU is a 9.5-point favorite.

They play a pace similar to BG somewhere in the 69-70 range for the game.

Check this out. Miami has the stats of a 5-0 team...they are #2 in offense and #3 in defense.  BG is #9 in offense and #6 in defense.  This chart shows why MU is a 9+ point favorite.

Miami is the best shooting team in the MAC.  (Spoiler alert, BG is last).  They take 43% from 3FG, which is a lot. They lead the MAC, making 42% from 3FG and they are #3 from 2FG with 58%.  BG is #2 defending the 3FG, so that has the potential to be interesting.  The boards should also be interesting...lastly, MU is decent at getting to the line and BG is decent at keeping opponents off the line.  MU is #4 making 78% of their free throws.

As mentioned, BG is the worst shooting team in the MAC. Miami is #3 defending the shot. They are the best defending the 3FG.  They are only #7 against the 2FG, but BG is #11 on 2FGs, so that might be tough to take advantage of,  Rebounding should be a big battle.  BG needs every offensive rebound it can get.  BG has a chance to get to the line, but they are #11 in the MAC in FT shooting.

Their leading scorer is Kam Craft, with 15.4 PPG. Craft played for Coach Steele at Xavier. He's 6'6" and shooting 68% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG.  Among players using 20% of their team's possessions, he is the #3 most efficient player in the MAC. 

Their 2nd leading scorer is Peter Suder, who scores 13.4 PPG.  He's a 6'5" and a transfer from Bellarmine, where he played in the first of BG's 2 ignominious defeats to that team.  He shoots mostly 2FG and makes 52% and 91% at the line. He also averages 5.6 RPG.

Next is Brant Byers. He is a 6'8" RFR playing for the first time.  Get this...he's scoring 12.8 PPG.  25 of his 28 FGAs have been from 3FG...and he has made 68%. (MAC Play).  That's #1 in the MAC...to say the least. 

Mekhi Cooper is scoring 10.2 PPG with 50% 3FG shooting. 

Eian Elmer is also scoring 10 PPG.  MAC All-FR last year.

Antwone Woolfolk leads the team with 6.6 RPG.

It's going to have to start on defense.  MU is a really good offense with a lot of scoring options.  If BG can get some stops and clear the board, they stand a better chance in transition.  BG has underperformed for a few, it would be great to see than over-achieve tomorrow.

Falcons Add Florida Transfer for Football

BG football landed a high-profile portal transfer...TE Arlis Boardhingham.

Arlis Boardingham is coming to BG from Florida.  Out of HS, he was highly recruited.

• Ranked a four-star prospect and No. 30 overall in the state of California by 247Sports.
• The No. 20 athlete in the Class of 2022 according to 247Sports.
• Recorded 43 receptions for 836 yards, 23 total touchdowns and 67 tackles his senior year.
• Helped high school reach the 2021 CIF Division 3-A Championship..
• Named the 2021 High School Football Back of the Year by the Los Angeles Times.
• Chose Florida over Oregon, USC and Texas, 15 P5 offers in total.

So he went to Florida and red-shirted.  And then his r-FR year was pretty good.  Finished with 26 catches for 289 yards and four touchdowns. He received some honors...FWAA Freshman All-American (2023), and was CFN Freshman All-American Honorable Mention (2023).

For his sophomore year, he played in the first 11 games while making two starts, finishing with 18 receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns on the season.

Into the portal he went.  This is an important player for BG to add.  Our staff has coached two NFL TEs and I think has a pretty good story to tell.  Alex Bayer's a good coach, I believe.  My guess is he sees an opportunity.

BG will need offensive playmakers and he has the potential to be an immediate focus of the offense.

Welcome to the Falcons, Arlis.

BG MBB "Disappointing" in EMU Loss

Coach Simon called it a disappointing day at the Stroh, and I think he is right.  We just missed a ton of shots, many of them makeable--many of them layups--against a team that's easy to shoot against.  And at home.  It was a disappointing performance.

Coach also said that he sees the program on the upswing.  We have two guys (Green and Thomas) who played last night who played D1 ball last year. Campbell is playing with his fingers taped together on one hand, limiting his ability to score.  He's gutting it out.  We expect Humphrey back soon and Khayat a couple of weeks later.  Reading between the lines on some things, I think Towns is done for the year.

I believe in our coaches.  Near-term, we are struggling to be competitive.  BG is 7-10 and 5-10 in D1 games, with a kenpom of 285.  When Huger left, it was 286.  Just for context.

The game started off on the wrong track when Marcus Johnson got two fouls in the first 2 minutes.  As Coach said, he usually is not in foul trouble and therefore we build the game plan around him.  While he was out, Thomas had an off night and there was no one else to step up.  BG was +10 with Johnson in the game...and -16 when he wasn't.

Even so, BG led for the first few minutes and the game was tied 8 minutes in. EMU went on a 9-0 run.  They held the lead for the rest of the half, except BG was able to slice the lead down to 3 at the break.

BG shot 29% in the first half.

BG came out of the locker room strong, as they often do.  But this was not the second half we saw at WM.  The game was back and forth for the first 10 minutes. EMU scored 6 points in a row to go up 7 with 9 to play.  This time, they were able to sustain it and led the rest of the way.  They were up 9 with 5 minutes left.  BG chipped away and had the lead to 1 with 1:25 left. and EMU ball. They did not score again and lost by 6. 

The game went off at 68 possessions, which is probably good for BG.  We're probably not set up for real racing right now.

But the offense...EMU came in allowing 1.19 points per possession, a shockingly high number.  BG got .91, the best defensive performance for EMU this year. BG was 15 of 36 (41%) on 2FG, sadly only their third worst this year.  BG shot 23% from 3FG--the only worse game was MSU. Collectively, it was BG's second-worst shooting night of the year, eclipsed only by the odd-ball win over NM State.

BG was 10 of 25 inside the restricted area.  That's a wow.  And an additional 2 of 5 in the non-restricted paint area. Coach mentioned that BG missed transition corner 3s that "have to go down."

That had me curious, because you don't see us making corner 3s, which is supposed to be the highest percentage. We made 2 of 5 against Akron and just 1 since then.

EMU scored 1 point per possession, also a poor offensive night. They shot the ball well, taking 40% of their FGAs from 3FG and making 50%.  Only KC matched that percentage.  EMU had turnover issues, got beaten on the boards and were -7 to BG at the line---the preview had noted that they give up a lot of FTs. And still won by 6.

Marcus Johnson ended up with 18 in 25 minutes.  He was 2-4 on 2FG and 3-5 on 3FG. He was also 5-6 at the line.  Trey Thomas had 16, making 6-9 on 2FG but missing all 8 3FGs.  He was 4-4 at the line and had 4 turnovers. Jamai Felt looks a little better every game. He played 32 minutes, made 3 of 4 from 2FG including a sweet hook shot, and added 10 rebounds, 4 blocks and 4 steals. Campbell added 9 points, 5 rebounds and 3 steals. Exacte had 5 rebounds in 17 minutes.

So, at 2-3 BG plays Miami and UT next week, two legit contenders.  Looking worst case, you fall to 2-5 and probably need 8 wins to get to Cleveland, maybe 9.  This was a winnable game and losing it could end up being costly.

EMU Eagles Arrive At Stroh (MBB)

And here comes Eastern Michigan.  Riding a wave of 5 straight losing seasons, three of them under their current coach, the Eagles were picked 11th in the MAC by Blue Ribbon. They are tied for 10th with the 10th best kenpom to date.

They are 6-9 in D1 games overall.  Their best win is over #177 Oakland. They won their MAC opener vs. NIU, but since have lost @UT, UA (by 24) and @CMU (by 19).

EMU is #2 in pace in the MAC (73 possessions).  BG plays at 71.  All stats today are MAC-only. The MAC as a conference is playing at a faster pace than any other conference this year.

BG has dominated the series of late. BG has won 9 of the last 10, losing in Ypsilanti last February.

When you look at EMU, the first thing you notice is the defense.  Which is terrible.  They allowed UT 90, UA 105 and CMU 82.  I do not recall seeing a defensive efficiency that high before. BG has only scored 1.19 this year in 3 D1 games.

Well, they are 11th in defending the 3FG and 11th in defending the 2FG.  Combined, they are last in defending the shot.  They don't cause turnovers, they are #6 on the defensive boards and they are dead last in allowing FTs.  Furthermore, they are giving up 80% made FTs, which they obviously can't control, makes the fouling issues worse.

Lots of times, teams that foul a lot have decent shooting percentages because when a guy gets open for a shot they foul him.  Not here.

BG has been pretty average defensively.  Hopefully, they can take advantage in this one, especially at the line.  Also, the offensive boards represent an opportunity.

EMU is an average offensive team.  They try 42% from 3FG, which is a lot.  They only make 31% (8th in the MAC) from 3FG, but 58% from 2FG, which is #3.  They turn the ball over a lot, are poor on the offensive boards and are #5 at getting to the line and they make 71% when they do, which is average.  BG has been defending the shot better and is good on the defensive boards and keeps opponents off the line.  Overall, they are pretty evenly matched.

They are led by Da'Sean Nelson, who is scoring 20.8 PPG in MAC play, which is #1. He's making 58% from 2FG, which is almost all his shots. He makes 87% at the line. He's 6'8" and from Rogers HS in Toledo.  He went to JUCO and then DePaul before moving to EMU.  He also leads the team with 5.3 RPG. He does make almost 5 turnovers a game.

Christian Henry scores 18 a game, which is #5 in the MAC. He's a 6'3" JUCO transfer from Panola who takes half his shots from 3FG and makes 37%.  He makes 52% on his 2FG.

Jalen Terry scores 14 PPG 50% 2FG and 34% 3FG shooting---most of the shots from 3FG.  He also transferred from DePaul.

Finally, Jalin Billingsley is a 10 PPG scorer.  He shoots 79% from 2FG, which is 3rd in the MAC.  He's 6'8" in his 3rd year at EMU.  He started at Georgetown.

ESPN gives BG a 73% chance of winning and Kenpom is 74%.  

BG Notches Win Over Buffalo

BG notched a home win over UB last night.  I always love walking out of the arena with a win. These winnable home games are key to the team.  The narrative right now is we keep it together, hit .500 in the MAC, get to Cleveland, hopefully get some guys back and then make a run at a conference that lacks anything close to a dominant team.  That's not a prediction, it's a path.

The first half was pretty tough to watch.  BG led 32-28, but both teams shot 32% overall and were collectively 2-25 from 3FG.  Of the 60 points scored, 25 came at the line.

BG came out of the locker room and got things going...as Marcus Johnson and Trey Thomas rallied to change the game.  BG scored the first 7 points of the half to take an 11-point lead and force a UB timeout less than 2 minutes in.   The lead stayed over 10 for the last 14 minutes of the game. It got as high as 19 and BG won 79-61.

The game came off at 70 possessions, which is pretty fast.  Coach has been emphasizing defense, and the Falcons held UB to .88 points per possession, which is below their season average.  BG scored 1.14 points per possession, which is a winning number.

BG did not have a great shooting night--a strong second half got them to 48% on 2FG and 33% on 3FG. That was still better than UB's 46% and 21% with 56% of their attempts on 3FG.  Turnovers and rebounds were relatively even, and there was a huge difference at the line.  UB came in with their only real defensive strength being keeping teams off the line...didn't happen last night, as BG was 27 of 36 while UB was 16-19.

It is our highest FT rate since the Morgan State game of Huger's last year.

BG was carried by Trey Thomas and Marcus Johnson.  Johnson had 21 on 3 of 5 and 3 of 7 shooting, 6-6 at the line, 9 rebounds and 3 assists.  Thomas had 22, 18 in the second half, on 5 of 10 and 3 of 8 shooting and 3-4 at the line,  Butler had 13 on 10 of 13 shooting. Jamai Felt had 9 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocked shots in 25 minutes.

BG essentially played only 7 men.  Squire played only 3 minutes, collecting 2 fouls.  In addition, Campbell is playing with his fingers taped together, significantly impacting his ball handling.  It remains a difficult situation.

BG has EMU on Saturday, certainly another winnable game.  That would get them to 3-2 before hitting Miami and UT the following week, which are two of the top teams in the MAC.

BG Announces 13 Players to Transfer to BG...

The Spring Semester is underway and BG has 13 football players sitting in a BG classroom for the first time and getting ready for spring practice.  Any other transfers will have to join the program for fall practice.  There is another window after Spring practice....we could lose additional guys or pick additional guys up.

Short snippets are below.  Full bios are here.

A few thoughts:

• Most of these guys have been listed on the blog.  The newest ones that I hadn't gotten to yet are Saipaia, Johnson, Lamson and McMillan.
• Lamson is a QB and was just announced last night.  Highly recruited, went to Syracuse and Stanford.  Appears to be a dual-threat QB, which would make BG's 2 most experienced QBs both in a dual-threat profile.
• BG picked up 7 players on defense, where help is badly needed.  One is a DL from Akron and there are 2 highly productive DII linebackers.  I'd think we get immediate help there. Also, Acheampong was very highly recruited.
• Speaking of positions of need, 2 WRs were added and Allen Middleton is someone to keep a special eye on, from what I have heard.
• Also, 2 were dbacks.
• They join (by my count) 10 of the FR class who have enrolled early.
• I haven't analyzed closely, but there are a lot of 1-year eligible guys, I believe reflecting our philosophy that we only need one year to get back on track with the high school pipeline.

Acheampong (Cape Coast, Ghana) spent the 2024 season at UCLA and the 2023 season at Miami without playing in any games. Was a consensus four-star recruit out of Santa Margarita Catholic in Southern California. He has three years of eligibility.

Bostic (Cincinnati, Ohio) spent the 2024 season at Toledo, but didn't appear in any games. He is a two-time All-Ohio pick out of Robert A. Taft High School in Cincinnati where he played cornerback, safety, and wide receiver.

Doggan (Bloomington, Ill.) spent the last three seasons at Northwest Missouri State where he appeared in 23 career games over the last two seasons. Doggan had career highs in tackles (24), passes defended (5), forced fumbles (1), and interceptions (1) in 2024.

Dunbar (Tarrytown, N.Y.) spent the 2024 season at Kansas State where he appeared in eight games. Prior to his season at Kansas State, Dunbar was an All-C-USA performer at Rice where he spent the 2020-23 seasons.

Johnson (Gonzales, La.) appeared in 34 career games over five seasons at Texas Southern. Caught 104 passes for 1,224 yards and seven touchdowns during his career at Texas Southern. Johnson was named All-SWAC in 2021 after making 32 catches for 467 yards and three scores.

Kilfoyl (Tampa, Fla.) spent four seasons at South Florida and appeared in 28 career games with 13 starts. All his starts came at left guard, and he saw 1,018 career snaps on the offensive line for the Bulls with most time at left guard. Also saw time at right guard and left tackle.

Lampron (LaGrange, Ohio) was an FCS All-American in 2024 at Dayton after notching 99 tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss, and 6.5 sacks in 2024, while also blocking two kicks, forcing two fumbles, and recovering two more. His 6.5 sacks were tied for No. 5 in all of FCS among linebackers in 2024. Appeared in 24 career games for Dayton from 2022-24 and posted 150 tackles, 27.5 TFLs, and 7.5 sacks for his career.

Lamson (El Dorado Hills, Calif.) spent the 2023 and 2024 seasons at Stanford. Part of a two-quarterback system, he appeared in 24 games with four starts. In two years, Lamson passed for 804 yards, passed for four touchdowns, rushed for 428 yards, and 13 scores. His eight rushing touchdowns in 2024 are a Stanford single-season program record by a Stanford quarterback and ranked No. 12 nationally among quarterbacks from non-option offensive teams.

McMillian (Fort Valley, Ga.) spent the last two years at Northeast Mississippi Community College in Booneville, Miss. In 18 career games, he rushed 148 times for 593 yards and three scores. McMillian attended Peach County High School where he helped PCHS to a region championship in 2022.

Middleton (Mascoutah, Ill.) spent the last two years at Southern Illinois and is coming off a 2024 season where he caught 32 passes for 422 receiving yards and two scores. Middleton is an all-state performer out of Mascoutah High School.

Moore Jr. (Massillon, Ohio) comes to BGSU from Akron where he spent the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He appeared in 19 career games for the Zips, including all 12 in 2024. Moore posted 39 career tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and one fumble recovery. Moore attended Massillon Washington High School.

Ridley (Richmond, Va.) was an FCS Freshman All-American at Hampton in 2024 after leading the Pirates with 50 receptions for 596 yards and four touchdowns. Ridley helped Trinity Episcopal High School to two VISAA state championships in 2022 and 2023.

Saipaia (Fort Collins, Colo.) was part of three NCAA DII national titles at Ferris State (2021, 2022, 2024) where he notched 155 career tackles. He recorded 93 stops, 8.0 TFLs, and 2.0 sacks during the 2024 title run. Saipaia led Ferris State with eight tackles and 1.0 TFL in the 2024 NCAA DII title game against Valdosta State. Saipaia played high school football in Ohio at Canton McKinley High School where he was a first-team All-Ohio selection in 2019 while also being teammates with BGSU 2024 consensus All-American Harold Fannin Jr. 

Buffalo MBB Preview

Just 6 years ago, UB had a historically great season.  Since then......well, not so much.  Nate Oats left, Jim Whitesell came in, had 4 years and was fired.  Next up is George Halcovage III, a long-time assistant at Villanova.  He is committed to building his program with younger players and is enduring some Loeffleresque suffering.  

Last year, they were 4-27, 3-27 in D1 games and 2-16 in the MAC.  This year, they were picked last again, and are 3-10 this year in D1 games and 0-3 in the MAC.  They last won a D1 game the Monday before Thanksgiving and have lost 6 straight.

In the MAC, they haven't had the easiest start. They were @Miami, and then Ohio and Kent at home, all losses. They lost to Kent by 19.

They are not in last place based on Kenpom.  They are #331 and NIU is #355.

UB has won 6 of the last 10 against BG and 3 of the last 4.  BG won last year's meeting 87-73 at the Stroh. Kenpom gives BG a 73% chance of winning and ESPN 87%.  BG is a 6.5-point favorite. 

They play fast, at 71 possessions a game. Beyond that, they have the numbers of a 3-10 team. They are #326 in offense and #334 in defense.  BG is #192 and #296.

On offense, UB tries a lot of 3FGs...43%, which is #90 in the country.  Unfortunately, they only make 30%, which is #301.  They are actually decent on 2FGs (52%).  They turn the ball over, and they get only 21% of offensive rebounds, only 8 teams are worse, including NIU. They are decent getting to the line, but make only 69%.  

The defense is not much better.  They are ranked under 300 on EFG%, 3FG%, defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers.  One thing...they don't give up very many free throws.

Their leading scorer is Ryan Sabol, scoring 16.5 PPG.  He is a good 3FG shooter, making 42% is #3 in 3FGs per game in the MAC.  He's a SO in his 2nd year at UB.

Tyson Dunn is scoring 12.6 PPG on 56% 2FG and 32% 3FG. He is a senior who transferred from Wesrern Ontario.

Noah Batchelor is their leading rebounder with 5.5 RPG. He's 6'8" and a transfer from Maryland.  

A couple roster notes.

• They are relatively tall, #99 in height.
• They are the least experienced team in the MAC.
• They have 4 Canadians, 2 Englishmen, 1 Australian and 1 Latvian on their roster.

So look, a wounded BG team looks across the floor and thinks this looks like a win.  UB is doing the same thing.  At home, BG needs to put this one away. 

Forgettable Day in Muncie

The trip to Muncie Saturday is probably best forgotten.  Down 4 players with a very limited rotation, BS went right after us.  We had huge foul trouble the whole way.  BS led for 37 minutes. Coach Simon got ejected.  It was just a day to leave behind.

BG did not quit, to their credit.  They had been trailing by ten for at least half the game and early in the second half were down 18, but they kept chipping away.  With 5:33 left, BG was down 6, but from there it went bad fast, with BG giving up a 27-11 run to lose by 22.  During that run, Coach Simon was T'd twice and was ejected...it was just a fitting ending to a long day.

BG was playing without Towns, Khayat and Humphrey....and Preston Squire.  So, BG was down 3 big men on a team that was already not especially big.  And Ball State took advantage. They tried only 30% from 3FG, their lowest in a D1 game this year. When Felt was in the game for 15 minutes, BG was -1.  When he was not in the game, BG was -23.  Some of that was in the last couple minutes and I'm not claiming Felt is a game changing stopper at this point, but that's still a meaningful difference.

I noted in the preview that BSU is good at getting fouled, and they showed that for sure.  Felt fouled out, Thomas and Campbell had 4 and Johnson finished with 3.  Thomas played only 23 minutes....it will be hard for BG to win with that.

The key was shooting.  It was the second-worst shooting performance allowed by the BG defense, with only KC worse.  They made 67% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG.  BG shot 49% and 30%, which is not great.  The other major issue was FTs.  BG is regressing to the mean at the FT line and fast.  They were 11 of 22 at the line.  A few more FTs, and that 6-point deficit might have been very different.

BS ended up at 1.24 points per possession, and BG at .94.  BG has not won allowing more than 1.14 this year.  More shocking, all of BG's wins except NM State have come with over 1.15 points per possession....even D1 average offense is not good enough for BG to win.  BG is #294 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Campbell had 13 on 6 of 8 2FG shooting.  It seems like we should be able to get him going more. Exacte had 12 on 3 of 5 3FG shooting, and 5 rebounds.  I think he has upside and he is getting some expedited on the job training with these injuries.  Johnson had 11, but it was 4 of 11 and 1 of 8 shooting.  He added six rebounds, 3 assists and 4 turnovers. Thomas had 10 on 2 of 5 and 2 of 6 shooting.  Felt had 5 rebounds, 1 block and 1 goaltending in 15 minutes.

The Falcons return home next week with Buffalo and EMU, two of the lesser teams in the MAC.  These are the teams BG needs to beat to make Cleveland, and this stretch is important.  In all honestly, splitting the road games this week was about all you might have expected.

Ball State Preview MBB

Next up, the Ball State Cardinals in Muncie.

The Cards were picked 6th in the MAC in Blue Ribbon and #7 in the MAC pre-season poll.  They had a tough pre-season.  They are 4-7 in D1 games and 1-1 in the MAC.  That's against the #334 ranked non-conference schedule.

That includes losses to Georgia State (290), Detroit Mercy (331), Richmond (214) and SIUE (256).  Their best win was over EKU (218).  They did beat Bellarmine, a team that smoked BG.

In the MAC, they started with an upset, winning a road game against Kent.  They then lost to Miami at home.

BG swept Ball State last year.  Before that, they had a four-game losing streak. Overall, the Falcons have won 4 of the last 10.

Ball State plays at 68 possessions, which is on the slow side.  The national average is 1.06 points per possession so you can see that in three of the four categories, the two teams are relatively typical.  The only area where something is different, is BG's defense.  BG played better defense than that against UA but worse against WMU.

The Cardinals are an average shooting team playing against a BG team that is easy to shoot against. They take 41% of their shots from 3FG, which is above average, and they make 33% which is exactly average.  They make 50% on 2FGs, slightly below average.  They take decent care of the ball, and are terrible on the offensive boards...BG is not great on the defensive boards.

The biggest strength of the BSU offense is getting to the FT line.  They don't take great advantage, making only 68.9%.  In fourteen games, they have 63 more FTs than their opponents.

Interesting side note:  BG has one thing against it that you cannot control.  Their opponents make 78.8% of their FTs, which is the fourth best in the nation.  You'd expect that to balance out.

Things should be pretty even here.  BG has been doing a little better on the offensive boards, so they might have a chance to take advantage of that.  And BSU gives up a few more FTs than BG is used to getting, 

As for the individuals, the Cards expected Peyton Sparks to be there big leader.  He was an all-MAC player who transferred and then came back. He's doing fine, scoring 11 PPG on 59% shooting, all from 2FG. He also leads the team with 6.7 RPG.  In the last few games, he has been coming off the bench in favor of Ben Hendriks.

Their leading scorer is JUCO transfer Jehrmari Hill.  He's scoring 16.9 PPG on 52% and 18% shooting.  He adds 4.9 RPG.  He also leads the team with 40 assists and 38 turnovers.

Mickey Pearson is back, scoring 10.6 PPG on 48% and 24% shooting. He averages 5.9 RPG. 

They best volume 3FG shooter is Juan Sebastian Gorosito, an Argentinian who transferred from Portland.  He makes 47% of his 3FG

Kenpom has them as a 65% favorite in this game.  ESPN has them as a 69% favorite.

Football Portal Reaching Fever Pitch

There is a frenzy down at the Sebo Center, as BG rushes to bring football players in before the beginning of the Spring Semester, which is Monday.  Stay tuned.  In the meantime, BG has picked up 3 players in the last week or so.

Hampton WR Brennan Ridley

Ridley totaled 596 yards and four touchdowns on 50 receptions as a true freshman in 2024, earning a nomination for the Jerry Rice Award, given annually to the top freshman at the FCS level.  He was also named to the Phil Steele FCS Freshman All-American team.

In HS, he recorded 58 receptions for 750 yards and 14 touchdowns over the course of his time at Trinity Episcopal High...they won two Virginia state championships.

Andrew Kilfoyl OL USF

Kilfoyl started 7 games this year before getting injured and played in 8 days the year before that.  He had a PFF score of 61 this year and played mostly LG.  He was a 3-star recruit from Tampa, with FBS offers from Air Force,  BG, Brown, Coastal Carolina, EMU, Liberty and WKU.

Mayes Doggan, DB, NW Missouri State

He played DII ball for NW Missouri State, playing 23 games over 3 years and making 29 tackles with 1 INT. 

Watch this space

BG MBB Wins at WMU

 The BG MBB team went on the road last night and picked up a win I think they needed pretty badly.  You don't want to fall into an 0-2 trap and WMU is a team that looks right now to be destined to be in the bottom of the MAC...we are at least looking for the middle.  And after leading Akron most of the way, you'd like to put a second decent game on the court.

And they did.  It wasn't always pretty but it was good enough.  And there are no bad road wins in the conference.

The first 12 minutes were closely played.  With 8 left and the game tied, WMU went on a 19-5 run over 6 minutes to take a 14-point.  This is a hidden danger point for BG.  You have a short bench, 2:27 left to play and you're close to getting blown out of the gym.

Instead, BG rallied, going on an 11-1 run to close the half down only 4 and very much still in the game.

Coming out of the locker room, BG fell quickly down 9--and it looked like another run was coming--but the Falcons rallied back to tie the game with 13:20 to play. Most of the remainder of the half was played at a one-possession game, back and forth.  

With about 3 left, Derrick Butler was fouled shooting at 3FG--highly disputed by Stephens.  He made two of three FTS, Felt and Butler got a blocked shot/jump ball in the paint and Butler dunked the ball to put BG up 4.  WMU missed the front end of a 1-1 and Johnson hit a 2FG and BG was up 6 with 1:48 to go.  Those little spurts late in games are critical, and BG did it while playing a very shallow rotation.

BG made 7-8 at the line coming home and won the game by 4 points.

The game was played at 69 possessions.  I think with BG's injury issues, that's a survivable pace for us. 

WMU came into the game making 28% of their 3FGs, which is terrible.  They made 19% against BG.  Also, they came in allowing only 24% on their defensive boards...a true team strength...and BG ended up with 39% of the available offensive rebounds, their second strong game in a row with that metric.

BG scored 1.2 points per possession and WMU had 1.14, so it wasn't a great defensive game for the Falcons.  BG made 61% on its 2FGs--a big improvement over the Akron game--and 35% on 3FG.  BG made 13 of 17 inside the restricted area.  Turnovers were even, as were FTs.  

On that...BG had a terrible first half at the line, making only 5 of 12.  They made 10 of 13 in the second half, much closer to where they have been.

Trey Thomas is really having a good spell when they need it most.  He was injured most of last year and struggled earlier in the year, but he's looking like the player we thought we were getting from Vanderbilt. He had 22 points on 3 of 10 and 4 of 5 shooting, 4-5 at the line and 3 assists over 0 turnovers. He was +9 for the game.

Derrick Butler had 19 on 6 of 8 and 0 of 6 shooting, 7-9 at the line and 7 rebounds. Marcus Johnson had 14 on 5 of 8 and 1 of 3 shooting, scoring a big basket to tie the game with 6:30 left and then the basket that put them up 6 late. He also had 7 rebounds, 1 steal and 2 turnovers.

Javonte Campbell had 12 on 5 of 6 2FG shooting, 2 of 5 at the line and 2 steals.  He is 2nd in the nation in steals per game.

BG had only 44 bench minutes.  Wilgues Junior Exacte played 25...he's what you would expect as a guy making up for missing a year...he makes good plays and then he makes head scratchers.

The Falcons move to 1-1.  A similar game looms in Muncie, with a road game against a team that has struggled this year. The key is to continue to build on what's working....we have strengthened ourselves inside even with Towns and Khayat injured...

WMU MBB Preview

 So, at one time WMU had a pretty representative program in the MAC.  From 1998 to 2014 they made the NCAA tournament three times.  Steve Hawkins eventually ran out of gas and was let go.  They hired Clayton Bates because looking outside the program during COVID was "unseemly."  That lasted two years and they went up the road to Lansing and brought Dwayne Stephens down.

He was 4-14 in the MAC his first year and then last year they won 4 of 6 coming home, finished 9-9 and made it to Cleveland.  But sustaining success is tough, and WMU lost 4 of their top 6 scorers to the portal.  They have 7 new players this year, and 4 players who red-shirted last season.

Blue Ribbon and the MAC official poll picked them 10th.  They are 2-10 in D1 games this year, but played the 4th toughest schedule in the MAC and 109th in the country.

So the wins are Canisius (359) and @Youngstown State (200). And yes, the losses include @Coastal Carolina (275), SIUE (259) and South Dakota (245)...but also @Dayton (48), @North Dakota State (128), Valpo (198), @MSU (15)....and @St. Thomas, but only by 6, which is 19 better than BG did.  They have lost 6 straight.

They opened MAC play vs. Toledo in Kzoo.  It was a 1-point game with about 11 left, but UT had the lead up to 9 three minutes later and coasted home.

BG has a kenpom of 277 and WMU is 288.  Kenpom gives the Broncos a 59% chance of winning.  The teams have split their last 6 meetings.  BG won both meetings last season.

WMU has played at 68 possessions a game, which is slow.  You have two pretty similar teams here, both of them playing sub-par offense and defense.  BG is only -.06, and WMU is -.11.  (These numbers are raw, not schedule adjusted).

If you knew that Coach Stephens came from the Izzo Zone, than you would expect his teams to be good at one thing, if nothing else--and that is rebounding.  And they are--#36 in the country in offensive rebounding.  After that, it's a struggle.  They take only 29.5% of their shots from 3FG, one of the ten lowest numbers in the NCAA. However, they make only 47% on 2FG and 28% on 3FG, leaving them #325 in the nation in overall shooting.  They help themselves with that rebounding and taking good care of the ball, but they don't get to the line and make only 65% when they do.

As you can see, they shoot poorly but BG defends the shot poorly as well.  BG will look for a few Campbell steals and need some hard work to keep WMU off the boards.

The defensive rebounding is even better.  They are #10...and BG has been terrible on the offensive boards. WMU is #297 in EFG% and is especially bad against the 2FG.  They don't force turnovers and do pretty well keeping teams off the line.  BG is #10 in the nation in FT%, which could be a decisive element in this game.

WMU is led by Chansey Willis, a 6'2" G who was Michigan's Mr. Basketball at Detroit King.  He's been through Saginaw Valley State and Henry Ford CC before heading to Kzoo.  He missed their first 8 games with injury and has played in the last 5...all of them WMU losses. He's scoring 16.8 PPG on 52% 2FG shooting and 22% from 3FG. He also averages 5.6 RPG and 6 assists per game.

Their 2nd leading scorer is Markhi Strickland at 11.8 PPG.  He was a JUCO player who was with WMU last year but played only a few games early in the year before getting injured. He shoots 48% and 27% and 3.8 RPG.

Next is Owen Lobsinger, a 6'9" SR who had 25 against BG at Read Fieldhouse last year.  He is scoring 11.1 PPG on 43% and 29% shooting and 7.4 RPG.  JaVaughn Hanna is scoring 10.8 PPG on 47% and 31% shooting. He was MAC Sixth Man of the Year last year.

They are #65 overall in height and they play 38% bench minutes, so a very deep rotation like Akron had.

BG is an underdog here because they are on the road.  They will (I am guessing) continue to be short-handed and will need to step up the offensive performance from the Akron game, while maintaining the defensive progress they made.

Zips Prevail Again (MBB)

BG falls to 0-1 in MAC MBB play.

The opponent was the perennial power and the defending champs....the Zips of Akron.  They pushed their current streak to 36-5 against BG with a 71-68 win where they didn't take their first lead until there was 1:10 left to play in the game.

Coach said the staff had been emphasizing defense and rebounding in practice, saying something along the lines of what Coach Orr used to say, which was "you can't let your shooting percentage determine your winning percentage."  BG did play better defense after getting lit up in their last 2 D1 games and the rebounding was also improved, especially on the offensive boards in their best D1 game.

Unfortunately, BG's offense was sub-par and that cost them the game.  Coach says we are "too talented" for these offensive woes to continue.  To illustrate the tale of woe, BG was 11 of 36 in the paint and Akron lacks their typical big man.  That's a tough look.  Coach also said that missing those deep baskets tends to lead to easy transition opportunities going the other way.

Still, all in all, BG led for 36 minutes without Towns, Humphrey or Khayat.  At the same time, it makes it all the more a missed opportunity.  Akron has won a number of the games in their run against us because they always close games out well.  A switch gets turned.  Anyway, it was a loss with a little sting to it. 

BG allowed .96 points per possession and scored .92.

One other thing.  BG shot only 14-21 at the line,w hich easily could have cost them the game as well.

Trey Thomas had a big offensive game with 19 points. Coach said after the game that he has been in a shooting slump and the numbers bear that out.  Coach says Thomas is a hard worker and will come around.  It makes a big difference to us when he does.  His 19 came on 3 of 4 and 4 of 7 shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals and 4 turnovers.  Derrick Butler, playing a full 40, had 15 on a tough offensive night, hitting 2 of 7 and 3 of 7 with 5 rebounds and 2 blocked shots.

Marcus Johnson had 14....2 of 5 on 3FGs, which is good....and 4 of 10 on 2FG, which is not.  Also missed both of his FTs...he came in among the nation's leaders. He also had 6 rebounds. Played only 25 minutes due to first half foul trouble. Javontae Campbell had 11 on 2 of 11 2FG shooting, which is a long day.  He also had 6 rebounds, made 7 of 9 at the line and 3 steals.  Jamai Felt had 10 rebounds in 18 minutes and Exacte had 9 in 20 minutes.

Coach points out that Felt is essentially a FR and Exacte did not play all of last season.  They are playing more right now because of Towns and Khayat being out.  Also, just from the expectation standpoint, I thought we'd be getting more out of Preston Squire.

So.  0-1 it is.  Two roads games this week.  If BG can marry up strong defense with making some shots, they have a good shot in both of them.

Zips MBB Rolls Into Stroh Center

 And here we go.  MAC season starts tomorrow, Falcons and the Zips on national television. 

I looked yesterday at the pre-MAC schedule for both teams.  Neither one had much to talk about...UA has lost 3 of their last 4, @Milwaukee (135), Yale (n)(87), and @Princeton (110) with a neutral floor win over Jackson State (289).  They are the defending champs and one of the four teams that always seem to be in the mix.  They were picked #2 by Blue Ribbon this year.

Josiah Harris started six early games this year, was injured and has not played since.  No idea what to expect from him.

BG continues to battle injury issues.  Green, Towns, Youssef and Humphries are all injured and BG will likely be without the latter 3 for this one. 

No team in our program's history has owned us like Akron does.  SINCE 2005,  Akron is 35-5 against BG, including the last 5.  BG last beat them in 2021 at the JAR and the last time at home was in 2020 by 18, their last win of that ill-fated season.

Thankfully, we don't play them again this year.

UA plays fast at 72 possessions, and BG plays at 71, so the game should be moving.  The NCAA average is 1.06 points per possession, with the Zips scoring 1.06 and allowing 1.05.  BG scores 1.05 but allows 1.12, the #286 defense in D1, and the key point for this game.

UA is built on the 3FG.  They try 46% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is top-50 in the nation. They make 35% which is good but not incredible.  They make only 47% from 2FG and overall are a sub-par shooting team.  They take average care of the ball, but create some extra possessions on the offensive boards.  They don't get to the line--which is typical of 3FG shooting team--although they make 72% of their FTs.

For its part, BG does not defend either shot type very well, doesn't force a lot of turnovers, is poor on the defensive boards gives up an average free throw rate.  BG's ability to force missed shots and get the rebound will determine if they have a shot in this one.

Looking at things the other way, the biggest UA strength is forcing turnovers, which they are #69 in the nation at. They don't defend the 2FG or the 3FG very well, are not great on the defensive boards and give up a normal amount of free throws. BG is actually a decent shooting team and does a good job taking care of the ball, so if they can put those together, they have a shot to be competitive on this end of the floor.

Akron plays an incredibly large rotation. They are #22 in the nation in bench minutes. They have 9 players averaging 17 minutes a game or more and 11 averaging 10 minutes or more.  Their most used player plays 28 minutes a game.

That means that even with their fast pace, they don't have people putting up big numbers.  Tavari Johnson is their leading offensive player, scoring 12.8 per game. He shoots 40% from 2 FG, which is poor, but 41% from 3FG, which is really good.  He also has 3.3 assists per game.

Nate Johnson is scoring 11.9 PPG and 3.5 assists per game. He shoots 46% from 2FG and 28% from 3FG.

The leading rebounders are James Okonkwo, 8.5 RPG and over 3 on the offensive boards, and Isaiah Grey with 5.5 RPG.  Gray transferred from Cornell and Okonkwo from WVU.  In total, UA has three former Mountaineers.

Also, Marcus Johnson is from Akron.

So the MAC season begins.  BG is being given a less than 40% chance of winning.  This is a coaching challenge for our guys to come up with a game plan that takes the guys we have to work with and get a home win to start the season,  Maybe we have used the break to tune up our zone, which can throw teams off.

Rough Start for MAC MBB

The MAC has had a really poor pre-season in MBB.  This is all based on kenpom.  A couple of quirks.  It counts only D1 games....so while CMU has played the 7th toughest schedule in the country in their D1 games, they have also played a MAC-High 4 non-D1 games.  Similarly, Kent was losing to Heidelberg into the last minute the other day, but it would not have impacted these rankings.   There are 364 teams in these rankings.

So, some observations:

• 7 of the 12 teams have a worse kenpom than when the season started. 
• The best non-conference win was George Mason (87) losing to CMU.
• The next best win was Miami over App State (172)
• Nine of the 12 teams in the MAC have their best win over a team in the bottom half of D1.
• Five of the 12 MAC teams have lost to teams over 300.
• These ratings are likely to fall, given the number of games against teams in the lower half of the rankings...right now 8 of the 12 teams are ranked above 200.
• The MAC has fallen from the #20 conference to #22 this year.
• BG has the worst loss overall, to #349 Bellarmine. It is their only D1 win and BG played the game fully healthy.

Team	D1 Record	Strength of Schedule	Starting Kenpom	1/1 Kenpom	Difference	Best Win	Worst Loss
Kent	6-3	202	136	116	+20	@Cleveland State (198)	(n) UC Irvine (70)
Akron	5-4	164	130	136	-6	Lamar (189)	@Milwaukee (136)
OU	5-6	240	157	162	-5	UNC-Asheville (173)	@Marshall (200)
Miami	6-4	287	212	185	+27	@App State (172)	@Vermont (243)
Toledo	5-6	89	177	217	-40	Wright State (191)	Oakland (210) by 33 at home
CMU	2-6	7	271	215	+66	George Mason (87)	Stony Brook (319)
Ball State	3-6	336	243	261	-18	Eastern Kentucky (208)	Detroit (317)
BG	3-7	319	264	283	-19	(n) New Mexico State (199)	@Bellarmine (349, by 12)
WMU	2-9	100	310	277	+33	@Youngstown State (204)	@Coastal Carolina (275)
EMU	5-6	250	293	315	-22	Wright State (190)	Detroit Mercy (319)
UB	3-7	93	348	332	+16	NC A&T (307)	Vermont (243)
NIU	1-8	113	318	350	-32	Monmouth (274)	Eastern Illinois (325)

Happy New Year Falcon Nation