Permutations Fins

Well, we've really reached the end now.  One game left, and as always, the MAC is a bewildering maze of tie breakers and potentials.  Rather than do Sudoko this morning, I spent a while teasing out the possibilities of where BG might play.  There are lots of things to consider.  Let's look first at the plus side.  (Note, these are based on my understanding of the tie-breaker rules and some mind-bending work. Let me know if you think it is wrong).  I believe we could play Western, Ball State, Eastern, or Central.

If BG Wins we finish 9th....

We would play the #8 team....

If WMU loses, we play @WMU.

If WMU wins, then 8th place is part of a big tie at 8-8 of which there can be four varieties.

1.
WMU
BSU
CMU
Miami

A WMU-CMU Coin flip, loser plays BG.  Miami is 2-1 within the group and BSU is 3-2, which leaves WMU and CMU, who split this season and have the same record against every team in the MAC.

2.
WMU
BSU
EMU
Miami

BG would play WMU,  EMU is 3-1 within the group and Miami is 2-1, leaving WMU and BSU.  Ball beat Miami and WMU lost to them, giving BSU this tie breaker.

3.

WMU

BSU

CMU

WMU-CMU Coin Flip, loser plays BG.  Same as above.  BSU's win over Miami gives them the tie-breaker, while CMU and WMU cannot be resolved.

4.
WMU

BSU

EMU

BG Plays WMU.  EMU has the best record, which then puts WMU and BSU in the same tie-breaker that yield BSU above.

If BG loses.....we finish 10th.

We would play #7.

If WMU loses to Ball State, BG would play the loser of EMU/CMU.

If WMU beats BSU, we're back to those tie scenarios except BG plays the second to last team out, not the last team out.

1.
WMU

BSU

CMU

Miami

A WMU-CMU Coin flip, WINNER plays BG.  Same as #1 above.

2,
WMU

BSU

EMU

Miami

BG would play BSU, for the reason listed above in #2.  Their win over Miami nets them the tiebreaker.

3.
WMU

BSU

CMU

WMU-CMU Coin Flip, WINNER plays BG

4.
WMU

BSU

EMU

BG Plays WMU.

Obviously, the most likely team would be Western, but there are a wide variety of options......stay tuned. A of bizarre note....Ball State would go from getting a bye to finishing eighth.