Senior Day Zip Preview

Well, it is always a sad day for me.  The last game of the basketball season always makes me sad.  I love September to March, because you have football and then you transition right into basketball, and it is a time of year that gives me a lot of pleasure.  March to September seems to last forever.

So, farewell to Erik Marschall, Otis Polk, Marc Larson and Matt Karraffa.  You have given your all to our program and left us with some great memories.  I'll have more about them later, but you will always be Falcons and always hold a special place in our hearts.

On to the business at hand.  Today's opponent is the Akron Zips.  Akron comes in at 21-8 and 11-3 in the MAC.  They have won their last six games, including a crushing of Buffalo in their last game at the JAR.  They beat BG by 26 at the JAR earlier in the year.

Akron was the pre-season favorite to win the MAC, and after a sluggish start they have played like it.  They are setting up for the big showdown with Kent next week for the regular season championship.  In any event, they will have a bye straight to the Q.

Akron has three really good seniors, but has a lot of good young players.  This program is really setting itself up and I have a ton of respect for them.  Keith Dambrot is clearly a very good coach.  He has kept this program on the upward trajectory even after LeBron's friends left.

They play with a ton of depth.  No player on the team averages more than 26 minutes a game.

Looking at the stats match up, BG only scored 45 when they played the first time, and that's what I think you have to focus on, because you can't play good enough defense to win that way.  As you can see here, BG is going to have to work to shoot as well as they normally do.  Akron has a tough inside game, so we will have to play well to go inside out on them.  Beyond that, it is pretty apparent what to expect on the other measures, though BG does have the potential to get to the line a little.

College Basketball

Flipping things around, BG's biggest challenge appears to be keeping Akron off the boards, and BG will simply need to play really good FG% defense.  I'm thinking that might have been a  focus in practice following the Kent game, and our team is always resilient, so I have a hunch that Akron isn't going to shoot anywhere near where that line is. Akron is very efficient on offense. They are only 4th in points per game, but lead the MAC in the tempo-free offensive efficiency.

NCAA Basketball

Individually, Akron only has one player who averages in double figures, which is pretty hard to believe. Remember that they don't play many minutes, so you have to add in something for that. They have 7 (!!) players averaging between 7 and 10 points a game, however.

My hunch is that BG will come out on Senior Day, following the second half Kent debacle, and put together a very solid performance. Whether they have enough to beat the Zips in a game the Zips absolutely must have is another question. Obviously, we have shown that ability from time to time--including the FIRST half of the Kent game. It will be interesting to see how it plays out---without a win, BG is almost certain to play on the road in the first round of the MAC tourney.