Just in time for the blizzard, the Huskies come mushing in.....

The Falcons finish their tour of the MAC West Wednesday with a home game against the NIU Huskies.  The Huskies are an interesting team...their season looks like this....

• They started the season 2-8.
• They won their next 6 (including @Ball State and WMU)
• They lost their next 6 (including a total o-fer against the East).

So, at 8-14 and 4-6, they come into Anderson Arena, on a six-game losing streak, four of them by double digits.

Looking at the numbers, let's compare BG's Offense against NIU's defense...the first thing we see is that NIU is not a particularly good defensive team.  They are 11th in the MAC in scoring allowed and 11th in defensive efficiency.  This chart shows us why....people make shots against them and they foul a lot, sending their opponents to the line.  They don't force turnovers and they are average on the boards.  Clearly, this game is a chance for Bowling Green to do something it hasn't done in a while, which is put together a couple good offensive performances in a row.

College Basketball Stats

Now, flipping the coin, we find a team that is 6th in scoring, but, tempo-free is 9th in the MAC in offensive efficiency...meaning that BG has an excellent opportunity to strangle the pace and get a nice advantage.  As you can see here, they don't shoot especially well (last in FG% and 10th in EFG%), and are 9th in the conference in Turnover % and last in total turnovers.  (Their pace is a little above average, helping to mitigate those numbers a little).  They do hit the offensive boards very hard (leading the MAC, 3rd on tempo free numbers) and they do get to the line.

NCAA Basketball

Their leading scorer is Xavier Silas, a 6'5" swing guy who transferred from Colorado (following Coach Patten).  At 19.5 PPG, he is second in the MAC in scoring.  He also averages 5 boards a game.  Darion Anderson averages 11 PPG and leads the team with 6.8 boards, despite being, you know, a 6'2" guard.  They do have a legit big man in 6'11" C Sean Kowel, with 9 ppg/5.7 RPG. 

(Silas, BTW, is a perfect example of how stats don't always tell the story.  Yes, he scores, but he also shoots 37% and uses up a Martin Samarco-type number of possessions to get there.  He has been cold the last three games as well).

I guess I would say this...they are a poor shooting team, and we should be able to take big advantage of that.  That won't make the game easy--BG will need to control pace, and do a very good job rebounding and preventing second chance baskets.  We will also need to shoot effectively at the line to take advantage of Northern's propensity to foul.  This is a good match up, and we can really use a win after the last few games.  NIU is 3-8 on the road this year, and it would be a nice opportunity to close a win out and stay competitive in the middle of the MAC standings.