Crusader Preview......

It is bracket buster time, and into BG comes the Valparariso Crusaders come into Anderson Arena.  This is the 8th bracket buster, and even though it has never helped BG (or any MAC team, for that matter) get an at-large  NCAA bid, I still think it has been been a good thing.  Yes, the year we played Detroit sucked as did the year we played Youngstown State, because those are teams we can play any time we want.  But, most of the games have exposed us to teams we do not usually see, and there is an automatic return game the next year, so that helps scheduling.  Like I said, I think it has been a good thing.

Valparariso is a team BG has not played in 30 years, but we also have never lost to them.  They play in the Horizon Conference, which is the 14th ranked conference.  The MAC is 16th.  Valpo is in 4th place in the conference.

Valpo is 15-14, with a similar record to BG (13-12).  They have played the 155th toughest schedule, however, and BG has played the #192 schedule.  Valpo has played some really tough teams (UNC, MSU, Purdue and Butler), and lost all of those games.  They have 3 non-D1 wins, which is a lot.  Their best win of the season appears to be a late January win @GB, and they have 5 road wins.

In common opponent land, they beat Toledo (by 32), Milwaukee and Detroit, and lost to Ball State, Detroit, Akron and Milwaukee.

Valparariso is a very efficient offensive team.  They are leading the Horizon in scoring, but they are doing it with only 3 more possessions per game then BG has.  They average 1.08 points per possession, which is really good.  Sadly for them, they are the worst defensive team in the Horizon conference, allowing (wait for it), 1.08 points per possession.

Let's look closer. We can see that Valpo allows better shooting than BG is used to getting, which means that this is an opportunity for our guys to produce some offensive muscle and score some points. Valpo doesn't force many turnovers, allows offensive rebounds at about the rate that BG is used to getting them, and does typically create a lot of free throw opportunities for their opponent. Not to put a jinx on it, but BG has only scored 70 twice in the new year, and why not this game?

College Basketball Stats

Flipping things around, we see that there is not much reason to expect any surprises. While Valpo is used to getting better shooting than we allow, the rest of the measures are pretty close together. They average over 70, and BG will clearly be looking to hold them inside that number. In a worrying fact for the Falcons, Valpo is a very strong 3-point shooting team, ranking in the nation's top 40 in 3FGA, 3FGM, and 3FG%. Typically, these teams have been tough for us to defend, and it will represent a big challenge for our zone defense.

NCAA Basketball

Looking at individuals, three players are in double figures for the Crusaders....G Brandon Wood at 18 PPG, F Cory Johnson at 15 and G Brandon McPherson with 11.5. Each of these guys is essentially shooting 40% from 3FG as well. Johnson also leads them with 5.7 rebounds. They run a pretty wide rotation with no player averaging more than 31 minutes a game.

So, it will be interesting to see what happens. Valpo is a slight favorite on the boards, but I think this has the potential to be an interesting game.