Friday, December 21, 2012

Falcon Defense, a look at the numbers

So, a quick note on BG's defensive performance in men's basketball.  The coaches have been talking up our defensive performance over the past few games, and I wanted to put it to the test a little.

Above is a chart showing the points per possession allowed for each BG game this year.  Remembering that the D1 average is about 1.01 points per possession, I think there's a very clear picture for looking at things as being different after-Detroit.

Before that game, BG had played four sub-par defensive games--in fact, BG had beaten Detroit on the strength of getting some baskets, not defending.  But, BG had four other games that were worse than average.  The only two games that were better than average were against non-D1 competition.

Since the Detroit game, BG has played above-average defense in every game, which is what we need to do do win.  MSU was almost average, but given who they are, I don't think that's a bad ouctome, and the WSU and Samford games had pretty decent results.

Unless BG starts finding ways to score more easily, I think it is clear that to win we need to be consistently under 1 or even .9 points per possession.  This is obviously a work in progress, but if this team's identity is going to be to defend like this, then we're going to need to see this trend remain consistent.

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