OU Preview....

 BG's next game--COVID willing--will be down at the Convo in Athens with BG playing Ohio U.  

The Bobcats have the second-ranked Kenpom in the MAC right now, (behind Toledo), but for my money they've had the best pre-season to date and I think will be a favorite in Cleveland.

Of course, Ohio did the MAC proud the year before, entering the MAC tournament as a #6 seed and then running the table, including a 15-point win over UB in the final.  They accessorized that with a first-round win over the defending NCAA Champs before falling in the second round.

From that team the only starter they lost was...Jason Preston...first-team All-MAC and draft pick.  He's with the Clippers but had foot surgery and is out for a significant period of time.

Ohio was picked #2 in the MAC for this year.  They are 11-2 in D1 games.  Their only losses are @ KY and @ LSU.  Many of their wins are not great in non-conference....they did beat #452 Belmont.  They are 3-0 in the MAC this year with 2 road wins

This is the 150th matchup between BG and OU.  Oddly, BG has beaten OU four of the last 5, including the last 2 at the Convo.

This is a strong tempo contrast.  BG plays at 73 possessions a game and OU plays at 68, which is a pretty good spread.

The key calling card is defense.  OU is playing great defense at .95 points per possession, which is top-60 in the country.  They also socre the ball well, about where Bowling Green goes.  The difference is that BG has played poor defense so far...#239 in the country.

So that will be one test...can BG score against OU?

This actually promises to be pretty evenly matched...most of hte numbers are pretty even.  Much like Miami, OU doesn't get to the line that much, but they do make 80% (#8) when they do get there. They take a lot of 3s--43% of their overall FGA.  They make 34% of those 3FGs--just slightly above average.  They make 49% of their 2FGs, just below average.

When BG has the ball against OU's key defense. they will face a team that is a little tough to shoot against but has forced a ton of turnovers, #44 in the country.  They also also very good on the boards and they don't give up many FTs.  They allow only 30% against 3FGs, which is really good, but allow 50% on 2FGs.

BG has a tendency to fire up 3FGs and that could be a difficult here.  For sure, their model requires taking good care of the ball and they will absolutely have to do that against the Bobcats to have a shot.

They are led by Mark Sears, the MAC POW this week and the leading scorer in the conference at 19.7 PPG.  He shoots 52% on 2FG and 45% on 3FG, so he was very efficient.  He adds 4.9 RPG and a team-high 49 assists and 25 steals.  He's probably the top player to date in the MAC.  He's score 24, 33, 21, 24 and 28 in his last five games. He was all-Freshman last year.

Their second-leading scorer is Jason Carter.  He played at Ohio before, transferred to Xavier and then transferred BACK to OU for his graduate season.  That's an angle of the portal I didn't anticipate.  He's a good player.  He scores 14 PPG, not very efficient at 44% and 24%.  Leads the team with 7.1 RPG and has 17 blocks.

Ben Vander Plas is scoring 12.6 PPG, shooting 44% and 36%, the latter being pretty good.  He also has 6.1 RPG and 20 steals.  He also has 42 assists.

Miles Brown started every game but the last one...where he was DNP.  No idea about his status.

So here we go.  This is a real test for BG, particularly on the road.  We have played well in Athens.  UT is next so I hope to see BG play well there again.

BG gets first MAC win in OT

It was home sweet home for the Falcons, as they won a competitive and entertaining game at the Stroh yesterday, beating Miami in overtime.  BG has OU and UT next week--possibly the top 2 teams in the MAC right now--and it's great to have a W heading into that week.

BG started well, taking a 14-5 lead but MU rallied and tied the game at 19.  The game was very competitive for the next 5 minutes.  BG took a 26-24 lead with 5:39 left.  Unfortunately, BG did not score again in the half and Miami scored 11 to lead at the half by 9.

MU extended and held the lead for the first 7 minutes of the second half. BG was down 9 with 13:30 left when Joe Reece hit an and-one to cut the lead to 6.  BG got a couple stops and BG had the lead with 8:30 left to go.  There were a couple lead changes and then with about 3:00 left Chandler Turner nailed a 3 to put BG up 5.

The two teams traded 3FGs on their next possessions, so BG still led by 5 with 2:26 left.  You'd like to think you are in good shape, but Miami had the game tied with 1:48 left--a basket and a 3FG paired with a BG turnover.

BG got a steal with 1:11 left and Turner split his FTs.  Brown split a couple on the other end and it was tied with :59 left.  BG had the ball but failed to score.  MU called timeout with :32 left.  They came out and BG played a really good half-court defensive possession, eventually forcing a turnover as Miami recklessly tried to create something.  BG called time and ended up with a Plowden jumper that fell short and was very close to being a foul on the shot...maybe he got a piece of the ball.

BG had the better of the overtime.  They led by 4 with 2:26 left to play.  What followed was a very frustrating period...BG got 3 straight stops and really just needed to convert on the offensive end once to put it away, but BG did not score at all, so it was still 4 with :25 left when Ayah hit a layup and cut the lead to 2.  BG got the ball inbound and Gordon was fouled.  

We don't know much about Gordon, but he was a 85% FT shooter at Samford.  He hit both FTs. and the lead was 4 with :20 to play.  Ayah got another layup to get it back to 2 with :09 left.  They fouled Mills and he also made both FTs to make it a 4 point lead and BG had finally put it away.

Again, very entertaining, exciting game and great to get the W.

The game was played at 73 possessions, but it was an overtime game.  The pace was more Miami's than BG's.  What jumps out first is that Miami shot 57% of their FGAs from 3.  This is a huge amount.  No MAC opponent has tried that rate against us since Akron in 2016.  The RedHawks haven't shot that many since 2020.  They came into the game shooting the ball very well from 3FG but made only 34% which is just above average.  They made 49% on 2FGs, which is average.

The game followed a common BG pattern, where the Falcons win while being outshot.  There were a couple keys.  First, BG won the turnover battle against a team that came in #8 in the nation at not turning the ball over.  Those extra possessions mitigate the shooting.  And, BG kept MU off the line.  The RedHawks shoot the FT really well, and tried only 9, making 6, which BG was 18 of 23 including 6-6 in the overtime.

Overall, BG had 1.07 points per possession, which is a good day and held the high-scoring RedHawks to 1.02.   It was their worst offensive game in their last 5 games.

BG only tried 26% of its FGAs from 3FG, second-lowest of the year (Duquesne).  BG made 37% from 3FG which is decent and 45% from 2FG, which is below average nationally but in the range we normally end up with.

BG had 2 double-doubles, though the game was in overtime.  Plowden had a career-high 27 points and 10 rebounds.  He was reasonably efficient at 6 of 14 from 2FG and 4 of 6 from 3FG.  He made all 3 of his FGs, had 2 steals and 3 turnovers.

Joe Reece had 20 on 8 of 15 shooting and 10 rebounds.  He was a great find in the portal.

Chandler Turner was the other double-figure scorer, with 11 points...2 of 5 on 2FG and 2 of 3 on 3FG, plus 8 rebounds in 25 minutes.  He is contributing to this team every time he is on the floor.

Metheny had 5 assists in 18 minutes.  Myron Gordon has an interesting night....missed all his shots, but was 7 of 8 from the line and had 5 assists over 3 turnovers.  He was clutch down the stretch.

A couple notes on player usage.  Metheny was injured and missed the last 13 minutes of the game.  Based on prior usage I would have expected Curtis to be on the point for the time after that, but Huger went with Gordon.  Curtis did not play for the last 16 minutes of the game.  Both Metheny and Curtis were on the floor for the scoreless period at the end of the first half....so that might be it.  Anyway, it seemed odd to me.

And Fulcher played 7 minutes.

Anyway, BG picks up a nice win over Miami.  One they needed and they got it done.  Tuesday is OU, without doubt the team playing the best right now.  Then UT on Saturday.,..COVID willing.

RedHawk Preview

So, BG did end up with a game Saturday....Akron couldn't play Miami and so BG picked Miami up at the Stroh to replace a game they lost earlier.

BG is 0-2 in MAC play and this is a home opener.  You'd hate to go 0-3....the last 10 years, adjusted for the 20 game schedule, most often you'd need to be 9-11 to make the final 8 and go to Cleveland...maybe 8.  At 0-3, there's plenty of time, but you're narrowing the odds to get to 9 wins.

Miami was picked to be #6 in the MAC this year, one spot ahead of BG.  They are 7-5 overall but 4-5 in D1 games and 1-0 in the MAC, winning by 10 @ UB.  They have a good win @Georgia Tech, but also lost @ Western Illinois and at home to Bellarmine.  

Miami beat BG twice last year and has won 6 of the last 8 in the series.

The RedHawks play at 68 possessions a game, which is above average and slower than BG usually plays (73, #18 in the nation).

Miami is a very good offensive team.  They are scoring 1.11 points per possession, which is #27 in the country.  They are, however, the #308 ranked defensive team.  BG has the same pattern, though less extreme.  BG is #106 on offense and #259 on defense.  Both teams are around .500, which usually means roughly scoring what you allow.

Miami's strength is turnovers.  They are #5 in the nation at taking care of the ball. You can pair that with above-average shooting, average offensive rebounding and while they don't get to the line very often, they are making 80% this year, which is #8 in the country.  BG allows an above-average number of free throws, something this will want to avoid tomorrow.  MU shoots the 3FG and 2FG well, but are better at the 3FG and take 40% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is above average (38%).

For its part, BG is easy to shoot against, does force some turnovers, is ineffective on the defensive boards and gives up a lot of FTs.  BG allows 35% on 3FGs, which is worse than average and about what Miami shoots.

As you can see, Miami does not defend the shot well.  BG is, as usual, a less than average shooting team.  Miami is terrible defending the 3FG (#317) and this is an opening for BG.  The Falcons take good care of the ball and are a really good offensive rebounding team.  BG also gets to the line and for its part has shot FTs well at 77%.

They are led by Dae Dae Grant, scoring 16.7 PPG on 53% 2FG shooting and 32% 3FG shooting.  He's made 88% of his FTs and added 4.2 RPF.  He also leads the team with 53 assists.  He was third-team All-MAC last year as a SO and all-FR the year before that.

Mekhi Lairy is scoring 14.8 PPG, on 41% and 38% shooting.  He is 91% at the line.  He was all-FR too but has not been all-MAC since.

Dalonte Brown from Toledo Bowsher is scoring 11.8 PPG on 495 and 445 3FG shooting (#107 in the country).  He leads the team with 7.3 RPG.  Precious Ayah scores 10.2 PPG on 65% 2FG shooting.  He adds 5.6 RPG.

The RedHawks are one team that has not brought in transfers to supplement the team.

This appears to be an evenly matched game and one the Falcons need to deliver at home to get the MAC season on track.

Short-handed UB Shuts Down BG

So, BG made the long ride home after a loss yesterday in Buffalo.  On one point, it isn't too surprising...UB is the conference favorite, BG was picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the MAC, and the game was in Buffalo.

On the other hand, UB was playing without Josh Mballa, their 6th man Tra'Von Fagan and another reserve (Hardnett) for most of the game.  They played 7 guys, four of them for more than 33 minutes and one player (Jones) played 28 minutes, his most of the year.

In that light, BG lost by 11 at UB last night.

The first 12 minutes were very competitive.  UB went on a little 9-2 run to go up 9 with about 5 minutes left. BG bounced back--as they would do numerous times--with a 12-4 run to cut the lead to 1 in the last minute of the half and UB led by 2 at the break.

UB had it up to 6 with 16:27 left and BG got it back to 2 with 15:52 left to play.  They got it to 8 with 11:42 left and BG had it back to 3 with 9:39 left.

The yo-yo ended then.  A 7-0 run made it 10 with 7:37 left. It was never closer than 8 and they led by more than 10 for the last 3 minutes.  UB led for the last 28 minutes of the game.

It was a 77 possession game, which is no surprise.  UB had a ridiculous offensive game.  They scored 1.28 points per possession.  BG has only had one MAC game a season that bad over the last 3 years.  BG.  Meanwhile, BG had a very good offensive game (1.14) against a poor defensive team, but not nearly good enough.

BG shot the ball well.  That's their best shooting night since Milwaukee.  BG shot 56% from FG and 27% from 3FG to get there.  That's on 37% of 3FG attempts.

UB shot better.  They made 66% on 2FG and 35% from 3FG.  That's with 42% of their FGA on 3FG.

BG had a slight advantage on turnovers and kept offensive rebounds even against UB's strength--though it was without Mballa--and the key element came at the FT line.  BG was good, making 17 of 21.  UB was incredible, making 31 of 33.

BG also played a much tighter rotation, with only 7 players getting more than 10 minutes.  Samari Curtis, who continues to show himself to be a huge find, scored 25 on 6 of 7 2FG and 2 of 5 on 3FG. He made 7 of 9 at the line and added 4 rebounds.

Joe Reece had 15 in 23 minutes.  He made 5 of 8 2FGs, 5 of 5 at the line but curiously had 1 rebound.  Plowden had 14 points on 4 of 11 and 1 of 3 shooting (not great), but added 9 rebounds.  Trey Diggs had 11 on 3 of 7 3FG shooting.  Metheny had 9 on 1 of 5 3FG shooting to add with 5 assists. Josiah Fulcher played 24 minutes with 6 points and 5 rebounds. 

BG falls to 0-2 in MAC play, both road games.  Just this minute, BG announced they will play Miami at the Stroh on Saturday.  Miami was supposed to play Akron.

UB Preview

Well, here we go again.  The COVID wheel turns round and round.  BG has 2 games postponed--both home games--and then a game moved from Saturday until tomorrow.  It doesn't have the enjoyment of the rhythm of playing twice a week with all the other teams, but it is apparently the best we can do right now. FWIW, the problems have been with other programs, not with BG...

So here we are, playing UB on Wednesday...in UB.  Saturday is now open...for now.

So here we go.

Buffalo was favored to win the MAC by the media and then also Blue Ribbon. They won the 18 and 19 titles, and won a game in the Big Dance earch of those years. They were 12-5 last year in the MAC, where they lost to Ohio U in the conference final.  They returned 4 starters from that team.

They are 4-6 in D1 games so far this year.  They have very nice wins @ N. Texas (74) and @ WKU (105) (without Williams) and 2 of their 4 non-conference losses were to Michigan (21) and St. Bonaventure (67). Things were off to an OK start and then they lost to Canisius (297) and the curse of Reggie Witherspoon kicked in, making that the first of their current 3-game losing streak.  They lost at home to Miami and then @ Akron...both games without Whitsell and the last one without Mballa and Fagan, all COVID-related.

Since the MAC final in 19, BG has won 3 of 4 against UB, including the game last year at UB.  That huge win was followed by a 6-game losing streak for BG.

One thing we can expect is a fast-paced game.  Both BG plays at 73.6 possessions and UB at 72.9.  

UB is very effective on offense, with 1.07 points per possession, which is #71 in the country.  Their strongest element on offense is on the boards--they are #23 in the nation.  They shoot effectively, are average on turnovers and don't get to the line much or make many FTs. They are effective shooters, with 52% on 2FG and 34% on 3FG.  They try 39% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is pretty much average.

They are not effective on defense, allowing 1.05 points per possession. They start with forcing very few turnovers--in the bottom 20 in the country. They are decent against the shot--particularly against 2FG, which you would expect for a team not forcing turnovers.  They are not good on the defensive boards and they do allow free throws. Their opponents do not try 3FGs--only 29% of attempts, which is the 11 lowest in the country.

They are led by Jeenathan Williams, scoring 18.6 PPG on 47% overall shooting and 38% on 3FG.  Ronaldo Segu is scoring 16 PPG, shooting 47% overall and 45% on 3FG.  He also leads the team with 5 APG.  Josh Mballa scores 15 PPG on 55% and 41% shooting, plus 8.6 RPG.  Maceo Jack scores 10 PPG, shooting 43% and 30%.

I have no idea about Mballa and Fagan's status for the game.

UB is heavily favored in this one.  They are on a 3-game losing streak, and maybe the Witherspoon curse will still hang over the Bulls.

Falcon MBB Lets Victory Slip Away

So, I think it's fair to say we don't know what we really have with BG's MBB team right now.  They actually played a pretty solid game for a road contest off a long layoff.  They led Ball State most of the way...they were just unable to close the door...in classic fashion.

BG led by 6 with :43 left to play.  At that point, the metrics say you have a 97.5% chance of winning.  The mere fact I am mentioning that is what my BG English professors would have called foreshadowing.  BSU got a basket to cut it to 4 and then Samari Curtis was fouled with :31.  He hits the first FT to make it 5. He misses the second one.  Bumbalough was fouled on a 3FG and made two of the 3 to get it to 3.  He missed the last one, but Miryne Thomas got the rebound and put it back to cut the lead to 1 with :23 to play.  Before BSU needed to foul they turned Gordon over and then Thomas hit another to put BSU up 1.  BG missed a buzzer beater and BSU had the win.

It is #25 this year for lowest win probability in a game the team actually won.

Ball State is a poor defensive team and BG hit them right about at their average--1.08 points per possession.  BG took 44% of their FGS from 3FG and made 43%, which is really good.  They only made 33% of their 2FGs however, worst this year.  They had 19% turnovers, which is high for us, but had a huge game on the offensive boards and got to the line and made 20 out of 25.

The larger issue was on the defensive end.  BSU scored 1.09 points per possession, They came in a 3FG shooting team and they took 45% from beyond the arc, making only 26%.  However, they made 60% of their 2FGs, had a good game on the offensive boards and got to the line and made 20 of 26, which is really good for them.  They did turn the ball over.

Trey Diggs scored 18 for BG on 6 of 10 3FG shooting.  He's just a weapon when he gets in a groove.  He also had 5 rebounds.  Plowden scored 15 on 5 of 12 overall shooting and had 3 rebounds.  Samari Curtis had 13 on 4 of 6 shooting and rebounds, although he turned the ball over 4 times.  Joe Reece had 10 in 14 minutes (foul trouble), shooting 1 of 5 from the field but 8-8 from the line.  Gabe O'Neal added 6 rebounds in 12 minutes.

Rotation wise, Josiah Fulcher played 5 minutes and Cam Young played 4.

Next up is Miami.  They were actually postponed yesterday--I'm not sure which team had the issue--but if it happens it will be Tuesday at the Stroh.

Happy New Year to the Falcon Nation....

 

"Brothers and Sisters, let us begin anew.  For until today, we have done nothing."

---St. Francis