Sunday, December 04, 2011

Hot Bowling Green on Bowling Green action yields Falcon defeat

In a game that was remarkably similar to last year's game between these two teams in BG, the Falcons failed to follow up on their Temple win with a road victory over a beatable team.

Obviously, I wasn't there.  It certainly sounded like one of those games we have seen over the years from our team, where we just can't get the ball into the basket.  BG's offense scored .746 points per possession.  Other than the MSU game, it is BG's worst scoring performance since....last year's WKU game.  BG's 35.2% EFG% is also among the worst since last year.

Say what you like....it is very hard to play good enough defense to win under those circumstances.  Last year BG was 0-13 in games where it had less than .96 points per possession.  Coach says you shouldn't let your shooting percentage determine your winning percentage, but here we see that if you are not a lock down defensive team (and we are not), you do need some scoring.

WKU shot 31 free throws...and made 21....largely the difference in the game.

Our guys certainly didn't quit.  They trailed by 18 early in the second half and slowly closed the lead down until Scott Thomas drained a 3 with 2:18 left.  Sadly, at that point, the game was tied 53-53, and BG would not score again and WKU would get the next 7 points to get a 60-53 win.

We'll have more tomorrow on this, but I suspect as this season rolls out, this will look like a game BG should have been able to win.  As we search for consistent production from our team, we're going to have to figure out how to get some consistent offensive production.

Draft Blogpoll Ballot

A few points this week.

First, I tried to put Oklahoma State ahead of Alabama.  It is a close call.  Alabama has two top 25 wins--Penn State (#21) and Arkansas (#8).  They also lost in OT to LSU.  Meanwhile, OK State has a bad loss to Iowa State (unranked), yet has 3 to 25 wins:  OK (#20), Bayor (#19) and Kansas State (#11).  On balance, the quality of Alabama's loss, on top of having a higher quality best win then OK State in my mind makes Alabama #2.  However, I see how people could view it otherwise...and I fully expect the Blogpoll to move OK State into #2.

I mentioned last week that there were two teams I was out of the mainstream on.  Just to spike the ball a little, I did not have Houston or Virginia Tech slotted into the top 10.  Both were overrated with a lack of quality wins.  And Saturday, they both showed it.  So, double fist pump on this end.

Clawson Wrap Up Presser

A couple of days ago, Coach Clawson sat down with the media for his year-end presser.  Normally, these are pretty informative, as there is less reason to shade things and no place for wishful thinking...so, let's look at what Coach had to say.

There were three themes that ran throughout.

The first is relatively obvious.  The team did improve in all areas from the year before.
The second is that we have a lot of guys back.  "Bright future."
The third is that we have to improve our strength.

Taking this in order...

Improvement

He said that we were better.  (We'll look at this a lot in the coming months, but you can't disagree).  But, as he noted it, I think he had the right perspective.  He'd say, for example, we went from 12th to 8th in defense...which is an improvement, but it doesn't get us where we need to be.

We ran the ball better, we defended better and we had better special teams.  And we won 3 more games (BGSU has tweeted that only 12 teams had a better improvement).


The O-line went from very bad to "average or below average."




Guys Back

We have, for example, 12 of our 14 leading tacklers back.  We have four starting lineman back and a 5th who actually got a number of starts due to injuries.  We have our QB and RBs back.  The only hole is at WR.

We should get better at every position except WR.

At WR, he cited Joplin and Stokes, then he mentioned Heath Jackson.  He said we red-shirted a good class of WRs, but also said we might very well go back to JUCO for immediate help at this position.

On the O-line, we had six playable guys this year, and no real internal competition.  Coach feels our red-shirted class of lineman was very good and he talked them up quite a bit.  We were lucky this year not to have a second injury, but that won't be the issue next season.


Strength

And here is where he spent most of his time.

He says that on the offensive and defensive lines, we just aren't strong enough.

He attributes this to youth.  When you play a lot of young players, you either have guys who have been through one off-season lifting program or they have been through none.

When you are playing against guys who are Jrs and Srs, they have been building strength longer.

He noted that this is as much the issue with having a young team as inexperience is.

The key time for our program this year is not Spring practice.  It is the time between now and then, when players are lifting, and then the time between Spring practice and fall camp.  Our guys just have to be stronger so we can run the ball and stop the run in key situations.

(A note from me.  We also were in our first year with a new strength coach, as the very popular Aaron Hillman had left for UM.  Don't know what impact that had, but seems worth mentioning.)


A few other notes

Adrian Hodges left before the Buffalo game because he was upset at losing snaps to Joplin.

Coach was very pleased with our effort in Buffalo, where a team with nothing to play for was into the game, playing hard and showing they "love football."

He said they are looking at moving Boo Boo Gates to WHIP (free safety).  They played him there against Buffalo, and he did well.  He noted that your safeties need to be sure tacklers, and we didn't always get that this year.

In terms of recruiting, this is the first tim we have not needed to sign the maximum.  He said we sign a QB a year, and are looking for o-line help as well as depth at LB and d-back.

He did also mention that we have to take better care of the football.  The team made way too many turnovers and didn't force very many on defense.

He also noted that we continue to struggle in close games.  He believes that strength will be key to that.  For example, being strong enough to know you can run clock with first downs on the ground makes a huge difference.  Similarly, the ability to get the other team off the field is (obviously) critical to making a comeback.

Nobody asked him how he felt his QB play was.  I would have been interested in that question.

Saturday, December 03, 2011

Hilltopper Preview

The Falcons travel to Bowling Green (KY) tomorrow to take on the WKU Hilltoppers.  BG has played only one true road game this year, but is about to find out how it can do on the road, as 6 of the next 7 games are away from the Stroh Center.

Last year, WKU was a .500 team, and they had some pretty serious losses from that team--3 seniors who were their top 3 in rebounding and in scoring.  They did win a very ugly game at Anderson Arena last season, beating the Falcons 59-52 in a game that featured 49 turnovers and 29 by the Hilltoppers.  BG shot 30% and had a dreadful .73 points per possession.  The loss coincided with a low point in the Falcon fortunes, one that had me wondering if we had made any progress at since since Dakich left.

For his part, WKU's coach was livid despite the win and said they he didn't want to see anyone "smiling" in the WKU locker room.

Thankfully, this is a new year.  They were picked to finish 3rd in the Sun Belt East in the conference poll, and Basketball Prospectus has them sixth in the Sun Belt overall and their Crazy Uncle math style projections showed them 7th.

They year has not been kind to WKU, but they are probably better than their record looks.  They are 2-6 this year, and that is without playing one true road game.  Their only wins have been over Tennessee State and SE LA, neither of which look to be good teams.  On the other hand, they don't really have a bad loss...they have lost to St. Joe's, Murray State and VCU (twice), each of which has a sub 100 RPI so far, and their other losses are Tulsa and LSU, both respectable teams.

Their game notes also indicate that they have had injury issues so far this year.

They are 2-3 in their home arena.

Their biggest issue has been putting the ball into the basket.  They are averaging .83 points per possession, which places them among the worst 5% in the country.  Their effective FG% is 41.3% and they are only average at the free throw line.  They shoot a lot of 3s but are 301st in the nation in actually making them, and on top of all this, they have turned the ball over on 27% of their possessions--15th worst in D1.

Compared to that wreckage, you would expect the defense to be better, and it is.  They allow .98 points per possession, which is good, and they do rebound reasonably well and force turnovers on 23% of their opponent's possessions.  So far, they've played pretty good defense, just not good enough to make up for their offensive issues.

They are lead by true freshman Derrick Gordon, who was a highly touted recruit when WKU signed him.  He is averaging 10 points per game, but is taking a huge amount of shots to get there, and his offensive efficiency is .83.  George Fant, a 6'5" FR, is their leading rebounding and Gordon is second.

Their most efficient offensive player is Kevin Kaspar (also a freshman) who is getting about 8 points per game but is the only Hilltopper scoring at more than 1 point per possession.

They play pretty small.  They have a 6'11" from the Sudan who blocks some shots and scores a little, but beyond him, they play a lineup that will look size-wise like what BG faced against the Owls on Sunday.

Winning on the road is always tough.  Having said that, if BG's brings its A-game on the defensive end of the floor, it seems like this is a game we match up pretty well in.  We would hope to be able to get our inside guys going against this lineup.

As I have said before, as we watch games and wonder if we can head into Kent and win, you would have to be looking for us to head into Diddle Arena and win.  This is a WKU team that is very young and really struggling.

BG has sometimes failed to put good games together in strings recently, and that's another thing it would be nice to see.

Friday, December 02, 2011

Stadium Journey

Had a guy contact me who has been doing a journey to stadiums around the US.  He was at the Doyt for the NIU game on 11/8 and wrote what I think was a pretty fair review of the stadium.  Run over and take a look when you get a chance.  It is an interesting project....

Ferentz: raid the MAC commitments

Found an interesting article out on the internet about football recruiting.  I'm including it here because it includes a one time Falcon verbal who decommitted and went to Iowa, where he is seeing success.

The player is Kevonte Martin-Manley of Pontiac, who had verballed to BG before his senior season and ended up at Iowa.

He's now a redshirt freshman with 28 catches for 292 yards and 3 TDs for the Hawkeyes.  Anyway, here's what Coach Ferentz said about recruiting in the Big 10.


“I’m not so sure there aren’t times we shouldn’t wait till December, try to raid the MAC commitments, get the All-Stars,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. “I’m serious. There are a lot of good players in that league.”

Just so you know....he's serious.  I'm sure they are...and I'm actually surprised it doesn't happen more.  The MAC picks up guys like this before their senior year starts, but they might show something during their last year of high school that makes them attractive to a Big 10 school.  I never fault a player for taking the offer.  I think most of the players we have ever had would have taken a Big 10 offer if they had one.

While you're at it, check out the article and see the high-pressure techniques Iowa used.  They told Manley-Moore that if he visited, he had to commit on the visit or they were moving on.  After he did, they had him call BG before he left Iowa.

Anyway, two things.  First, we have some good players in this conference.  Second, let's hope Ferentz' ideas don't catch on TOO much.



Thursday, December 01, 2011

Blogger Roundtable......Fins





1) What was the best thing you saw from your team and can they maintain that next season? 

I thought BG made progress on two of the three most glaring 2010 weaknesses...namely, the defense was improved (from 10th to 7th in MAC in scoring and from 10th to 8th in yards per play).  Certainly this is modest improvement and not where we want to be, but the defense was better and with most of the players coming back, should improve even more next season.

 2) What was the worst thing you saw from your team and can they correct that this season? 

The team's turnovers were just deadly, especially as the conference as a whole cut down on turnovers.  BG was among the worst teams in FBS in turnovers during the year.  The offense has issues...the line is still a work in progress, for example...but without the turnovers, they are probably good enough for the team to go .500.  Can it be corrected?  You'd hope.

 3) Where did your season line up with expectations? 

In my pre-season post, I picked BG to go 5-7 with a win over Temple, and that's what happened.  Probably my best lucky guess ever.

 4) MACC predictions and all the number of Bowls the conference gets.

I think this has the potential to be one of the better MACC.  I like NIU slightly, but no outcome would surprise me.

Six bowl eligible teams, five make it.

NIU goes to Mobile.
I like UT in Detroit, just for proximity but OU would travel there too.
Other one goes to Boise for Potato Day.
WMU looks to be headed to NM
and...Temple appears to be going somewhere.  No idea.

 5) Final rankings

  1. NIU
  2. UT
  3. OU
  4. Temple
  5. Ball State
  6. WMU
  7. EMU
  8. KSU
  9. BGSU
  10. Miami
  11. Buffalo
  12. CMU
  13. Akron