And the beat goes on...

Its absolutely fantastic to see what the Reds are doing, and its great to see the City responding so well to them. I hope we can keep it up--I'm looking forward to seeing the guys at the Jake next Friday.

Carrying on the academic Pythagorean debate, the trend hasn't shifted. Our projected record is 28-27, but the team is a full five games better at 33-22. Who would have thought.

As for the other stats I have tracked periodically here, let's take a look. Walks are actually improved over a couple of weeks ago, and nearly a full walk per nine innings below last season, and well below the NL avare of last year. However, K's are low (just below 6/9--considered by many a threshold success rate), and with hits and HR's well above the league average, you have the ERA over league average as well. To give up that many hits and homers, you'd need to have more power pitchers to succeed consistently.

BB/9 (2003--3.67 2004--2.88 NL Avg--3.42)
K/9 (2003--5.80 2004--5.99 NL Avg--6.54)
H/9 (2003--9.82 2004--9.43 NL Avg--8.96)
ERA (2003--5.09 2004--4.67 NL Avg--4.27)
K/bb (2003--1.58 2004--2.08 NL Avg--1.91)
hr/9 (2003--1.30 2004--1.22 NL Avg--1.07)
e/game (2003--0.87 2004--0.71)

As poor as the defense is, it is also improved. Hard to believe.

It was a big relief to see Paul Wilson pitch so well. Groin injuries can be pesky. Good call keeping him out. I am worried about Kearns, but less about Larkin. You have to expect it from a 40-year old. I agree with the caution on Kearns...he will be needed in Oakland.

Speaking of which, we really needed that win last night, and the one today. You're looking at going to Oakland where you face the two best LHPs in the game, and on Tuesday its even worse because you are looking at Belisle or Bong (or Etherton, I guess) in the Harang spot against Zito. Ouch.

Finally, I have previously said I would be happy with a .500 season. Now that we are 11 over, that's harder to fathom. At this point, if we even play .500, that would give us 86 or 87 wins. I think I picked 84 on Redszone.

Well, there's a long way to go. We need to keep scoring runs and getting no worse starting pitching than we do now.

There's an interesting thread on Reds Daily which follows along an earlier post here--that the Reds runs scored vs. runs allowed doesn't indicate their winning record should be as good as it is, and that over a long season, the law of averages will take hold. Interesting fodder...I still see .500 as a very good year from this team.

Let's take 2/3 from the Expos. Keep the mo going.

www.redsdaily.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/459"

Falcon Football now...

The opener is still 93 days away, but the anticipation is already starting.

Collegefootballnews.com has their Falcon preview out today. Its interesting--I would term it an absolute best case scenario. If everything goes right, then yeah, we would be pretty dominant. But they take all the ?'s, and give them good answers, most notably including Jelani Jordan and Omar.

I like them both. I think Jordan will be a fine player, but he hasn't proven himself yet, and like all young DB's, he has been torched pretty often. I like Omar, too, and he has a great supporting cast, but time will tell. And pray for his health, because we are thin behind him (CFN even moves our backups to exulted status). Strong Safety, and depth in the d-backfield are also big issues.

Suffice it to say, I hope they're right. It certainly could turn out as they say, but I am a little more cautious.

http://www.collegefootballnews.com/mac/2004_Previews/Bowling_Green_Preview.htm

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeppp!!

How about that...a sweep of the Marlins. I wrote below about how we needed to travel to Miami and get back from the Marlins what they took from us in Cincy, and we did it. This team continues to surprise. It is starting to feel a little bit like 1999 all over again.

And who, you might ask, was the emotional leader of that 1999 team? The same guy doing it now, Sean Casey. Is it too soon to say MVP? All Reds fans should at least plunk down for him on the all-star team. He is absolutely unconcious.

I had been about to write about John VanderWaal, and what wonderful things he would do for the depth in RF, when the disappointing news came out about him. I am a little surprised, after all, he seemed to be playing productively a lot. Its a shame...it was a great story. I wonder if there is more to it???

Now, kick the Expos in the butt.

Tough Sunday in Canada

It was a tough Sunday in Canada, but we took 2-3 from the series. Still, a sweep against the Expos would have been nice.

You can't expect a lot when you put Joe Valentine in to start. I'm not sure I understand the logic here--you wanted him in the bullpen, but he needed to start one game first. He has, by the way, proven in the minors he cannot start effectively.

So he did what you expect, and the sweep was gone.

I was glad to see Ryan Wagner get sent down. He obviously needs some work, but I still believe in him. The Reds took a big risk bringing him up last year, because that became one of his options. I think Wagner will pitch effectively in the future--he may be a closer or set up guy. But the time in the minors should help.

Message to Reds--take a college guy in the early rounds of the draft. Use your later rounds for the high school kids.

More bad luck for Austin Kearns with the sore on his thumb. Ouch.

Go Reds.

Losses to Marlins

Well, it goes without saying that the losses to the Marlins were disappointing coming off the sweep of the Astros. You hate to lose a series--I'm a big proponent in looking at each series as a mini-test of your ability.

Of course, what was different from Houston to Florida was hitting. We just didn't hit in the last two games, whereas we absolutely ripped the ball against Houston. The starting pitching in both of the losses was more than adequate, but we didn't score enough runs.

This starting eight has to carry the team many nights, and they are capable of doing it. The team is healthy, so that can't be it. I worry about Adam Dunn--I know his high .OBP mitigates some of the strikeouts and the low BA, but it only mitigates. He needs to get more hits, and he's getting a lot fewer of them lately.

From here, we need to get well against the Expos and then get them back in Miami following that. The Expos are the worst team in the NL, and we'll go there in a tie for first--at worst.

I think Jack McKeon is a great manager. Miley's going to be a good one, too.

That's your first place Cincinnati Reds! Sole Possession.

I'm tired. Its late. More later.

Tonight's win, and the playoff environment at GAB were food for the soul.

Let the good times roll.